Marcel's Dynamic Profit / Loss Calculator for GoldOverview
This Dynamic Risk / Reward Tool for Gold is designed to help traders efficiently plan and manage their trades in the volatile gold market. This script provides a clear visualisation of trade levels (Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit) while dynamically calculating potential profit and loss. It ensures gold traders can assess their positions with precision, saving time and improving risk management.
Key Features
1. Trade Level Visualisation:
Plots Entry (Blue), Stop Loss (Red), and Take Profit (Green) lines directly on the chart.
Helps you visualise and confirm trade setups quickly which is good for scalping and day trades.
2. Dynamic Risk and Reward Calculations:
Calculates potential profit and loss in real time based on user-defined inputs such as position size, leverage, and account equity.
Displays a summary panel showing risk/reward metrics directly on the chart.
3. Customisable Settings:
Allows you to adjust key parameters like account equity, position size, leverage, and specific price levels for Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit.
Defaults are dynamically generated for convenience but remain fully adjustable for flexibility.
How It Works
The script uses gold-specific conventions (e.g., 1 lot = 100 ounces, 1 pip = 0.01 price change) to calculate accurate risk and reward metrics.
It dynamically positions Stop Loss and Take Profit levels relative to the entry price, based on user-defined or default offsets.
A real-time summary panel is displayed in the bottom-right corner of the chart, showing:
Potential Profit: The monetary value if the Take Profit is hit.
Potential Lo
ss: The monetary value if the Stop Loss is hit.
How to Use It
1. Add the script to your chart on a gold trading pair (e.g., XAUUSD).
2. Input your:
Account equity.
Leverage.
Position size (in lots).
Desired En
try Price (default: current close price).
3. Adjust the Stop Loss and Take Profit levels to your strategy, or let the script use default offsets of:
500 pips below the Entry for Stop Loss.
1000 pips above the Entry for Take Profit.
4. Review the plotted levels and the summary panel to confirm your trade aligns with your risk/reward goals.
Why Use This Tool?
Clarity and Precision:
Provides clear trade visuals and financial metrics for confident decision-making.
Time-Saving:
Automates the calculations needed to evaluate trade risk and reward.
Improved Risk Management:
Ensures you never trade without knowing your exact potential loss and gain.
This script is particularly useful for both novice and experienced traders looking to enhance their risk management and trading discipline in the Gold market. Enjoy clearer trades at speed.
معادن
Daily Range + Asia Liquidity + FVG + silver Bullet sessionIndicator Description :
This indicator combines several trading concepts to provide an overall view of intraday selling opportunities. It includes the following elements:
Daily Range:
Measures the daily price range between the highest and lowest points of the day.
Helps understand daily volatility and identify potential support and resistance levels.
Asia Liquidity:
Analyzes price movements and volumes during the Asian session (usually from 00:00 to 08:00 GMT).
Identifies liquidity levels where the price has reacted during this period, providing clues on where significant orders are concentrated.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A trading concept that identifies areas where the price has moved quickly, creating a "gap" or empty space on the chart.
These areas are often revisited by the price, which can provide potential entry or exit points.
Silver Bullet Session:
Refers to a specific period of the day where a particular strategy or setup is expected to occur. For example, this could be a period where price movements are historically more predictable or volatile.
This session particularly targets price movements that attract sellers.
Using the Indicator
Identifying Selling Levels:
Combine the daily range levels with the liquidity zones identified during the Asian session to spot levels where sellers might be interested.
Use the fair value gaps (FVG) to identify areas where the price might return, providing entry or exit points for selling positions.
Silver Bullet Session:
Focus on this period to observe price movements and reactions to the levels identified earlier.
Look for selling signals (e.g., bearish reversal candlesticks or continuation patterns) during this session to maximize selling opportunities.
Objective :
The objective of this indicator is to provide a systematic approach to identifying selling opportunities based on multiple technical and temporal elements. By combining daily volatility, liquidity levels, value gaps, and specific trading periods, this indicator helps traders pinpoint potential selling points with greater accuracy.
GOLD MonitorI'm using this platform from sometime and I carry out trading on Gold, using a kind of scalping strategy.
Scalping is not an easy task to do. Personally I found a lot of problems while detecting the trend direction.
So I decided to develop an indicator that is capable, in a discrete way, to give an instant-view on the market that is interesting.
This indicator can summarize in a small table all interesting figures related to gold scalping trading and is useful while joined with technical and fundamental analysis.
In this way it is possible to easy take under control all important aspects related to gold trading that I summarize here and you can find inside the table:
1) Gold / USD current direction
2) USD dollar strength (instant DXY) indicator take under consideration the DXY value every each tick and measures the increase or decrease in percentage. If there is a decrease the indicator displays a red low arrow, if there is an increase the indicator displays a green high arrow
also Gold friends are important so it is possible to find also:
3) NZDUSD (that is a Gold friend) variation percentage. If there is a decrease the indicator displays a red low arrow, if there is an increase the indicator displays a green high arrow
4) AUDUSD (that is a Gold friend) variation percentage. If there is a decrease the indicator displays a red low arrow, if there is an increase the indicator displays a green high arrow
then it is possible to find DXY USD dollar strength calculated between previous period (e.g. in timeframe M5 last 5 minutes) and current period (current 5 minutes). This indication is represented by an high arrow if there has been an increase, or by an low arrow if there has been a decrease.
Last but not least the information about the Gold trend itself with the possible forecast for the current period. This information must be carefully interpreted together with other instruments for technical analysis like Fibonacci lines.
Bitcoin to GOLD [presentTrading]**Introduction and How it is Different**
Unlike traditional indicators, the BTGR offers a unique perspective on market sentiment and asset valuation by juxtaposing two seemingly disparate assets: Bitcoin, the digital gold, and Gold, the traditional store of value. This article introduces an advanced version of this ratio, complete with upper and lower bands calculated using standard deviations. These bands add an extra layer of analytical depth, allowing for more nuanced trading strategies.
BTCUSD 12h bigger picture
**Economic Principles**
The BTGR is rooted in the economic principles of asset valuation and market sentiment. Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, a place where investors park their money during times of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is often viewed as a high-risk, high-reward investment. By comparing the two, the BTGR provides insights into the broader market sentiment.
- Risk Appetite: A high BTGR indicates a bullish sentiment towards riskier assets like Bitcoin.
- Market Uncertainty: A low BTGR suggests a bearish sentiment and a flight to the safety of Gold.
- Asset Diversification: The BTGR can be used as a tool for portfolio diversification, helping investors balance risk and reward.
**How to Use It**
Setting Up the Indicator
- Platform: The indicator is designed for use on TradingView.
- Time Frame: A 480-minute time frame is recommended for more accurate signals.
- Parameters: The moving average is set at 200 periods, and the standard deviation is calculated over the same period.
**Trading Signal**
Long Entry: Consider going long when the BTGR crosses above the upper band.
Short Entry: Consider going short when the BTGR crosses below the lower band.
Note: Due to the issue that the number of trading is less than about 100 times, the corresponding strategy is not allowed to publish.
Correlation Coefficient - DXY & XAUPublishing my first indicator on TradingView. Essentially a modification of the Correlation Coefficient indicator, that displays a 2 ticker symbols' correlation coefficient vs, the chart presently loaded.. You can modify the symbols, but the default uses DXY and XAU, which have been displaying strong negative correlation.
As with the built-in CC (Correlation Coefficient) indicator, readings are taken the same way:
Positive Correlation = anything above 0 | stronger as it moves up towards 1 | weaker as it moves back down towards 0
Negative Correlation = anything below 0 | stronger moving down towards -1 | weaker moving back up towards 0
This is primarily created to work with the Bitcoin weekly chart, for comparing DXY and Gold (XAU) price correlations (in advance, when possible). If you change the chart timeframe to something other than weekly, consider playing with the Length input, which is set to 35 by default where I think it best represents correlations with Bitcoin's weekly timeframe for DXY and Gold.
The intention is that you might be able to determine future direction of Bitcoin based on positive or negative correlations of Gold and/or the US Dollar Index. DXY has been making peaks and valleys prior to Bitcoin since after March 2020 black swan event, where it peaked just after instead. In the future, it may flip over again and Bitcoin may hit major highs or lows prior to DXY, again. So, keep an eye on the charts for all 3, as well as the indicator correlations.
Currently, we've moved back into negative correlation between Bitcoin and DXY, and positive correlation with Bitcoin and Gold:
Negative Correlation b/w Bitcoin and DXY - if DXY moves up, Bitcoin likely moves down, or if DXY moves down, Bitcoin likely moves up (or if Bitcoin were to move first before DXY, as it did on March 2020, instead)
Positive Correlation b/w Bitcoin and Gold - Bitcoin and Gold will likely move up or down with each other.
DXY is represented by the green histogram and label, Gold is represented by the yellow histogram and label. Again, you can modify the tickers you want to check against, and you can modify the colors for their histograms / labels.
The inspiration from came from noticing areas of same date or delayed negative correlation between Bitcoin and DXY, here is one of my most recent posts about that:
Please let me know if you have any questions, or would like to see updates to the indicator to make it easier to use or add more useful features to it.
I hope this becomes useful to you in some way. Thank you for your support!
Cheers,
dudebruhwhoa :)
comm_idxThis script displays information about the components of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The index is based on futures contracts in the categories of agricultural products, softs commodities, livestock, energies, industrial metals, and precious metals. The statistics displayed in the table are:
change: 1-day % change
from ma: the % change from a moving average
corr idx: correlation of the contract to the GSCI
The lengths for the moving average and correlation statistic can be set using the inputs.
See the script source for the symbols used for each commodity. Although most of the symbols correspond to the actual futures contract used to compute the index, LME contracts are not available on tradingview. Hence, corresponding HKEX contracts are used for the industrial metals.
Market Relative Candle Ratio ComparatorIntroducing the Market Relative Candle Ratio Comparator, a visually captivating script that eases the way you compare two financial assets, such as cryptocurrencies and market indices. Leveraging a distinctive calculation method based on percentage changes and their averages, this tool presents a crystal-clear view of how your chosen assets perform in relation to each other, both for individual candles and over a range of previous candles.
Tailoring the script to your preferences is a walk in the park, as it allows you to easily adjust input symbols, moving average lengths, and other parameters to match your analytical approach. The visually arresting column chart it creates employs vivid red and green colors to underscore the differences between the two assets on each candle. Simultaneously, the lower-opacity columns depict the accumulated differences over a specified lookback period. This vibrant blend of colors and opacities results in a dynamic visual experience, enabling you to better grasp market trends relative to each other.
The reverse bool input is a handy feature that lets you invert the effect of the input symbol (DXY by default) in the comparison. When you set the reverse input to true, the script multiplies the calculated DXY percentage change by -1, effectively reversing the comparison. This is particularly useful when examining assets with an inverse relationship or when you'd like to analyze the input symbol's impact in the opposite direction.
For instance, if the input symbol represents a market index that generally moves in the opposite direction of the selected cryptocurrency, enabling the reverse input will help you better visualize and understand the relationship between the two assets by inverting the input symbol's effect on the comparison.
In the accompanying chart, you can observe the comparison of Bitcoin's movement relative to the Dollar, Gold, Bonds, and the S&P 500. The indicator reveals that in the last day, Bitcoin outperformed Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar but not the S&P 500!
Gold Value RainbowThis indicator can only be used with 'GOLD' ticker. It is used to estimate Gold valuation based on major countries base money supply M0 such as US, EU, JP and CN. These 4 countries represent nearly 75% of total global money supply in the world. The chart will compare how gold value will move alongside with base money supply for comparison study. The chart presented here is just a relative comparison with some scaling and shifting so it doesn't refers to any real measurement. However it can be used to track gold price whether it's too cheap or too expensive in relative to money supply available in the market.
- The gray line represent major countries money supply M0
- The rainbow above the gray line represent the multiplication factors from 1x, 2x, ..., 10x
- The rainbow below the gray line represent the division factors from 0.8x, 0.6x, ..., 0.2x
Check other script to value stock and index:
- Stock Value Rainbow: script to value stock based on book value, earning, dividend and cash flow
- Index Value Rainbow: script to value index based on fed balance sheet and base money supply
- Gold Value Rainbow: script to value gold based on global money supply
- Stock Value US: script to check US stock value
- Stock Value EU: script to check EU stock value
- Stock Value JP: script to check JP stock value
- Stock Value CN: script to check CN stock value
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison.
Fiat Currency and Gold Indices (FGXY) CandlesA modification of my previous indicator "Crypto Index (DXY) Candles". The idea was to create a similar currency basket to the standard DXY, but from the perspective of other currencies. Still using the standard DXY weights, this indicator allows you to create a tailored index for other currencies, provided that a currency pair exists for each of the 6 components. This means that even currencies that aren't included should work in theory; just find the 3 character currency prefix used by tradingview and give it a shot! This indicator is useful for gauging how well countries/currencies are holding up and when paired with the standard DXY may help see potential inflection points. For use on longer time frames (~1h-~3d) as some of the data being pulled seems to have issues on lower timeframes.
The Price of Hard MoneyIf we calculate “the price of hard money” (the market capitalization weighted price of gold plus Bitcoin); we get this chart.
Since 2017, Bitcoin’s share of hard money growth has been increasing, we can see it visibly on the gold chart by a widening delta between the price of hard money and the Gold price. We can also see some interesting technical behaviours.
In 2021, Hard Money broke out and held this breakout above the 2011 Gold high. Only later in 2022 did a correction of 20% occur – typical of Golds historic volatility in periods of inflation and high interest rates.
Hard Money is at major support and we have evidence for a fundamental shift in investor capital flows away from gold and into Bitcoin.
This Indicator is useful:
- To track the market capitalization of Gold (estimated), Bitcoin and combined market capitalization of Hard Money.
- To track the price action and respective change in investor flows from Gold to Bitcoin .
Provided Bitcoin continues to suck more value out of gold with time, this chart will be useful for tracking price action of the combined asset classes into the years to come.
ILM CFTC COT Legacy PlotUse this indicator on Daily Timeframe
Please refer to the below link for CFTC Disaggregated COT
www.cftc.gov
This script is very similar to COT Financial Plot indicator except that it plots the data for Futures in Legacy buckets Commercial vs. Non-Commercial
In Chart Currency TickersQuick View of Multiple Currencies & Gold Price on Chart
In Chart Currency Tickers will help quick view of Multiple Currencies (Up/Down points & Percentage), you can change symbols on settings as per your requirement
മെയിൻ കറൻസികളും സ്വർണവിലയും റിയൽ ടൈം മോണിറ്റർ ചെയ്യുന്നതിനും മാർക്കറ്റ് സെന്റിമെൻറ് അറിയുന്നതിനും അതിനനുസരിച്ച് ട്രേഡിങ്ങ് ഡിസിഷൻ എടുക്കുന്നതിനും നിങ്ങളെ സഹായിക്കുന്നു
Happy Trading to All..!!!
Asif Kerim Naduvilaparambil
Money Supply Index (MSI) by zdmreThe primary objective of the states monetary policy is to maintain price stability with sustainable maximum economic growth. In anticipation of higher inflation , the Central Banks raise short-term interest rate thereby to reduce money supply. Conversely, the Central Banks reduce short-term interest rate to inject additional money into the economy in apprehension of unleashing recessionary forces. The stock markets usually respond negatively to interest rate increases and positively to interest rate decreases. The linkages between money market and stock market a wealth effect due to a change in money supply disturbs the equilibrium in the portfolio of investors.
This index indicates the long-run and short-run dynamic effects of broad money supply (M2) on U.S. stock market (this symbol is optional (Bitcoin, Gold or Oil or other markets etc.)).
#DYOR
Sovereign Gold Hodlers Script for comparing nations and their gold, with options including:
Default Comparing the Price of Gold
Use Relative Valuations price / prior price
Measure Reserves/Price
GDP/Gold Price
GDP/Gold Reserves
Given the state of the world I thought it'd be good do see where countries stand, how much real money they hold. I think gold is going to play an increased role in trade between economies in the near future.
CHN BUY SELLCHN BUY SELL is formed from two RSI indicators, those are RSI 14 and RSI 7 . I use RSI 14 to determine the trend and RSI 7 to find entry points.
+ Long (BUY) Signal:
- RSI 14 will give a "BUY" signal, then RSI 7 will give entry point to LONG when the candle turns yellow.
+ Short (SELL) Signal:
- RSI 14 will give a "EXIT" signal, then RSI 7 will give entry point to SHORT when the candle turns purple.
+ About Take Profit and Stop Loss:
- With Gold, I usually set Stop Loss and Take Profit at 50 pips
- With currency pairs, I usually keep my Stop Loss and Take Profit at 30 pips
- With crypto, I usually keep Stop Loss and Take Profit at 1.5%
Recommended to use in time frame M15 and above .
This method can be used to trade Forex, Gold and Crypto.
My idea is formed on the view that when the price is moving strongly, the RSI 14 will tell us what the current trend is through a "BUY" or "EXIT" signal. When RSI 14 reaches the oversold area it will form a "BUY" signal and when it reaches the overbought area it will give an "EXIT" signal. I believe that when the price reaches the oversold or overbought area, the price momentum has also decreased and is about to reverse.
After receiving a signal from RSI 14, my job is to wait for an Entry signal from RSI 7. When RSI 7 reaches the overbought area, a yellow candle will appear and that's when we enter a LONG order. When the RSI 7 reaches the oversold area, a purple candle will appear and that's when we enter a SHORT order.
Metals:Backwardation/ContangoMETALS: Gold , Silver , Copper ( GC , SI, HG)
Quickly visualize carrying charge market vs backwardized market by comparing the price of the next 2 years of futures contracts.
Carrying charge (contract prices increasing into the future) = normal, representing the costs of carrying/storage of a commodity. When this is flipped to Backwardation (contract prices decreasing into the future): its a bullish sign: Buyers want this commodity, and they want it NOW.
Note: indicator does not map to time axis in the same way as price; it simply plots the progression of contract months out into the future; left to right; so timeframe DOESN'T MATTER for this plot
There's likely some more efficient way to write this; e.g. when plotting for Gold ( GC ); 21 of the security requests are redundant; but they are still made; and can make this slower to load
TO UPDATE(once a year will do): in REQUEST CONTRACTS section, delete old contracts (top) and add new ones (bottom). Then in PLOTTING section, Delete old contract labels (bottom); add new contract labels (top); adjust the X in 'bar_index-(X+_historical)' numbers accordingly
This is one of three similar indicators: Meats | Metals | Grains
-If you want to build from this; to work on other commodities ; be aware that Tradingview limits the number of contract calls to 40 (hence the 3 seperate indicators)
Tips:
-Right click and reset chart if you can't see the plot; or if you have trouble with the scaling.
-Right click and add to new scale if you prefer this not to overlay directly on price. Or move to new pane below.
--Added historical input: input days back in time; to see the historical shape of the Futures curve via selecting 'days back' snapshot
updated 15th June 2022
© twingall
MACD Scalper AnalysisThis is a scalper analysis movement designed around MACD and 200 EMA
The rules are simple:
For long we check if the close of the candle is above the ema200 and we have a crossover between macd and signal
Once this happens we analyse the next candle, if its close higher than open , we can consider it a win and if its close lower than open we consider a lose.
For short we check if the close of the candle is below the ema200 and we have a crossunder between macd and signal
Once this happens we analyse the next candle, if its close higher than open , we can consider it a loss and if its close lower than open we consider a win.
Once we have all of this we analyse the average percentage movement and establish if the specific asset or timeframe is worthy for us.
At the same time it can give a good idea if we can go with a divergence strategy, like for example we have a short entry, but we will actually go long and viceversa.
If you have any questions let me know !
Macro EMA Correlation
This script is useful to see correlation between macroeconomic assets, displayed in different ema line shown in percentage to compare these assets on the same basis. Percentage will depend on the time frame selection. In the higher timeframe you will see higher variation and in small timeframe smaller variation.
You can select the timeframe who suit your trading style. The 1h and 4h fit well for longer trend swing trade and the lower time frame 15m, 5m, 1m are good for scalping or daily trading.
The following asset are available:
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Gold
Crypto total market cap excluding bitcoin (total2)
United state 10-year government bond (US10Y)
Usdt dominance show the concentration of usdt hold. For example, when trader are fearful they sell their crypto position to keep more usdt in their portfolio (USDT.D)
The USD/JPY pair the dollar usd versus the Japanese Yen one of the most forex traded pair.
You can clic on parameter to select the asset you want to analyse.
The main correlation observed are:
bitcoin negatively correlated with the usdt dominance.
bitcoin negatively correlated with the usd/jpy pair
bitcoin is positively correlated to eth, total2 (altcoin)
bitcoin positively correlated with gold
bitcoin is mostly negatively correlated to us10y
The basis of correlation is that positively correlated asset goes in the same direction and that the negatively correlated goes in opposite direction.
So, the idea is to use these information to see trend reversing.
Example 1: when bitcoin and usdt dominance are extended in opposite direction we look for a possible retracement toward 1% wich is the middle base.
Example 2 : when bitcoin make a move we look for ethereum and total 2 to follow
Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS :
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS :
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Scalping Trading System bot Crypto and StocksThis is a trend trading strategy scalping bot that can work with any type of market. However I concluded my tests so far with Crypto, Stocks and Forex, and with optimizations always could be found some profitable settings.
Indicators
SImple Moving Average
Exponential Moving Average
Keltner Channels
MACD Histogram
Stochastics
Rules for entry
long= Close of the candle bigger than both moving averages and close of the candle is between the top and bot levels from Keltner. At the same time the macd histogram is negative and stochastic is below 50.
short= Close of the candle smaller than both moving averages and close of the candle is between the top and bot levels from Keltner. At the same time the macd histogram is positive and stochastic is above 50.
Rules for exit
We exit when we meet an opposite reverse order.
This strategy has no risk management inside, so use it with caution !
Full Swing Gold Vwap Macd SMO StrategyThis is a full strategy designed for gold market using 12h timeframe chart.
Its components are:
VWAP monthly
SMO oscillator
MACD histogram
Rules for entry:
For long: when enter when close of the candle is above vwap monthly, current histogram is higher than the previous one and SMO oscillator is above 0
For long: when enter when close of the candle is below vwap monthly, current histogram is lower than the previous one and SMO oscillator is below 0
Rules for exit:
We exit the trade if we get a reverse condition.
We also exit the trade based on a risk management system, both for SL and TP using % movements.
If you have any questions let me know !
{Gunzo} Stock to Flow (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Bitcoin)This indicator displays the Stock to Flow (S2F) ratio for popular commodities (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Euro, Bitcoin, Ethereum) in order to
compare them and determine which ones could be a good Store of Value (SoV).
OVERVIEW :
Stock to Flow is a popular indicator used to predict commodities scarcity. It evaluates the total stock of a commodity against the total amount that can be produced during a year. This model supposes that if scarcity is increasing, the price is going to increase.
This model has been used over the last years on Bitcoin to determine if the asset was undervalued or overvalued, and even make prediction models on the future price.
This script is going to focus on the Stock to Flow ratio (total stock/amount produced) to compare the following assets over time :
Mining resources (mined) for Gold and Silver
Cryptos assets (mined) for Bitcoin and Ethereum
FIAT currencies (banknotes printed) for Dollar and Euro
CALCULATION :
The calculation of the Stock to Flow ratio evaluates the total stock of a commodity produced against the production made for a specific year. The data is calculated on a yearly basis, then interpolated to get monthly or daily values.
DATA ORIGIN :
The main information needed to calculate the Stock to Flow ratio is the "yearly production" of a commodity. I tried to retrieve that information from the most reliable sources :
for Gold from research on www.gold.org
for Silver from research on www.silverinstitute.org
for Ethereum from research on etherscan.io
for Bitcoin from data source "QUANDL:BCHAIN/TOTBC" from www.quandl.com
for Dollar from research on www.federalreserve.gov
for Euro from research on www.ecb.europa.eu
SETTINGS :
Smoothing for interpolated data : Smoothing factor for assets that are calculated yearly and then interpolated (Gold, Silver, Dollar, Euro, and Ethereum)
Smoothing for non interpolated data : Smoothing factor for assets that are calculated daily and not interpolated (Bitcoin)
Display asset names : Display assets names in a colored rectangle on the right side of the chart
Display asset values : Display assets Stock to Flow ratio in a colored rectangle on the right side of the chart
Display key events for assets : Display important events for the assets at the bottom of the chart using the same color as the assets lines (for example Orange diamond is a Bitcoin halving). Please refer to the script code for the details of all events.
USAGE :
This script can be used on any asset available on TradingView as the data used is either static or external.
However I recommend using it the Gold asset from currency.com as the depth of the chart will be bigger (since 1980s).
It is recommended to used this script on the monthly timeframe as the chart data is calculated yearly and then interpolated.
