Risk-On / Risk-Off CompositeReal-time Risk-On / Risk-Off Composite from your four ratios:
SPY / TLT (equities vs long bonds)
HYG / LQD (high-yield vs IG credit)
HG / GOLD (copper vs gold)
BTC / GOLD (speculative vs defensive)
It:
normalizes each ratio with a z-score (so they’re comparable),
lets you weight them,
plots a composite line + histogram (up = risk-on, down = risk-off),
shows a small heat-table for each sub-signal,
and includes alert conditions for Risk-On / Risk-Off flips.
إدارة المحافظ الاستثمارية
Risk-On / Risk-Off Composite (Elliot) – Macro+Vol Upgrade v2drop-in upgrade of indicator that adds three optional macro components with adjustable weights:
Inverted VIX (risk-on when down → we use 100/VIX)
Inverted MOVE (bond vol; risk-on when down → we use 1/MOVE)
Inverted DXY (USD; risk-on when down → we use 1/DXY)
Portfolio Strategy TesterThe Portfolio Strategy Tester is an institutional-grade backtesting framework that evaluates the performance of trend-following strategies on multi-asset portfolios. It enables users to construct custom portfolios of up to 30 assets and apply moving average crossover strategies across individual holdings. The model features a clear, color-coded table that provides a side-by-side comparison between the buy-and-hold portfolio and the portfolio using the risk management strategy, offering a comprehensive assessment of both approaches relative to the benchmark.
Portfolios are constructed by entering each ticker symbol in the menu, assigning its respective weight, and reviewing the total sum of individual weights displayed at the top left of the table. For strategy selection, users can choose between Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Simple Moving Average (SMA), Wilder’s Moving Average (RMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA). Moving average lengths are defined in the menu and apply only to strategy-enabled assets.
To accurately replicate real-world portfolio conditions, users can choose between daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly rebalancing frequencies and decide whether cash is held or redistributed. Daily rebalancing maintains constant portfolio weights, while longer intervals allow natural drift. When cash positions are not allowed, capital from bearish assets is automatically redistributed proportionally among bullish assets, ensuring the portfolio remains fully invested at all times. The table displays a comprehensive set of widely used institutional-grade performance metrics:
CAGR = Compounded annual growth rate of returns.
Volatility = Annualized standard deviation of returns.
Sharpe = CAGR per unit of annualized standard deviation.
Sortino = CAGR per unit of annualized downside deviation.
Calmar = CAGR relative to maximum drawdown.
Max DD = Largest peak-to-trough decline in value.
Beta (β) = Sensitivity of returns relative to benchmark returns.
Alpha (α) = Excess annualized risk-adjusted returns relative to benchmark.
Upside = Ratio of average return to benchmark return on up days.
Downside = Ratio of average return to benchmark return on down days.
Tracking = Annualized standard deviation of returns versus benchmark.
Turnover = Average sum of absolute changes in weights per year.
Cumulative returns are displayed on each label as the total percentage gain from the selected start date, with green indicating positive returns and red indicating negative returns. In the table, baseline metrics serve as the benchmark reference and are always gray. For portfolio metrics, green indicates outperformance relative to the baseline, while red indicates underperformance relative to the baseline. For strategy metrics, green indicates outperformance relative to both the baseline and the portfolio, red indicates underperformance relative to both, and gray indicates underperformance relative to either the baseline or portfolio. Metrics such as Volatility, Tracking Error, and Turnover ratio are always displayed in gray as they serve as descriptive measures.
In summary, the Portfolio Strategy Tester is a comprehensive backtesting tool designed to help investors evaluate different trend-following strategies on custom portfolios. It enables real-world simulation of both active and passive investment approaches and provides a full set of standard institutional-grade performance metrics to support data-driven comparisons. While results are based on historical performance, the model serves as a powerful portfolio management and research framework for developing, validating, and refining systematic investment strategies.
Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Estimator (stable)An estimation of the Treasury Cash-Futures Basis with help from GPT
Moving Average Trend Strategy V4.1 — Revised Version (Selectable✅ **Version Notes (V4.0)**
| Feature | Description |
| --------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------- |
| 🧠 **Moving Average Type Options** | Choose from EMA / SMA / HMA / WMA |
| 🧱 **Take-Profit / Stop-Loss Switches** | Can be enabled or disabled independently |
| ⚙️ **Add Position Function** | Can be enabled or disabled independently |
| 🔁 **Add Position Signal Source** | Selectable between MA Crossover / MACD / RCI / RSI |
| 💹 **Adjustable Parameters** | All periods and percentages are customizable in settings |
---
✅ **Update Summary:**
| Function | Description |
| -------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **MA Type Selection** | Choose EMA / SMA / HMA / WMA in chart settings |
| **Take-Profit / Stop-Loss Percentage** | Configurable in the “Take-Profit & Stop-Loss” group |
| **Add / Reduce Position Percentage** | Adjustable separately in the “Add/Reduce Position” group |
| **MA Periods** | Customizable in the “Moving Average Parameters” section |
| **Code Structure** | Logic unchanged — only parameterization and selection functions added |
---
### **Strategy Recommendations:**
* **Trending Market:** Prefer EMA trend tracking or SAR indicators
* **Range-Bound Market:** Use ATR-based volatility stop-loss
* **Before Major Events:** Consider option hedging
* **Algorithmic Trading:** Recommend ATR + partial take-profit combination strategy
---
### **Key Parameter Optimization Logic:**
* Backtest different **ATR multipliers** (2–3× ATR)
* Test **EMA periods** (10–50 periods)
* Optimize **partial take-profit ratios**
* Adjust **maximum drawdown tolerance** (typically 30–50% of profit)
---
### **Risk Control Tips:**
* Avoid overly tight stop-losses that trigger too frequently
* During strong trends, consider widening take-profit targets
* Confirm trend continuation with **volume analysis**
* Adjust parameters based on **timeframe** (e.g., Daily vs Hourly)
---
### **Practical Example (Forex: EUR/USD):**
* **Entry:** Go long on breakout above 1.1200
* **Initial Stop-Loss:** 1.1150 (50 pips)
* **When profit reaches 1.1300:**
* Close 50% of position
* Move stop-loss to 1.1250 (lock in 50 pips profit)
* **When price rises to 1.1350:**
* Move stop-loss to 1.1300 (lock in 100 pips profit)
* **Final Outcome:**
* Price retraces to 1.1300, triggering take-profit
This method secured over **80% of trend profits** during the 2023 EUR rebound, capturing **23% more profit** compared to fixed take-profit strategies (based on backtest results).
Position Size ToolPosition Size Tool
What it does:
Shows a small on-chart table that converts per-ticker dollar amounts into share counts (shares = amount ÷ current price) for up to 4 configurable tickers.
Inputs (indicator settings)
Ticker 1–4 — select the symbol (TradingView will show the exchange-qualified form like BATS:TQQQ in the settings).
Ticker N $ Amount — dollar amount to convert into shares for that ticker.
Show Ticker N — toggle each row on/off.
Table Text Color — color of the table text.
Table Position — screen location (Top/ Middle/ Bottom × Left/Center/Right).
Font Size — Small / Medium / Large.
Show Empty Top Row — optional spacer row.
What the table displays
Left column: the ticker symbol only (the script strips the exchange prefix for display, so BATS:TQQQ appears as TQQQ in the table).
Right column: the calculated share count, formatted to two decimal places (or "—" if price is not available or zero).
Table updates on the chart’s timeframe using live/last bar prices.
How to use
Add the indicator to a chart.
Open the indicator’s settings panel.
In Ticker 1–4, type/select the symbols you want (you may see the exchange prefix there; that’s TradingView’s UI).
Enter the dollar amounts for each ticker.
Use Show Ticker N to hide/show rows.
Adjust text color, font size, and table position as desired.
Notes
The settings field will always show the exchange-qualified symbol (TradingView behavior); the script strips the exchange only for the on-chart display.
If the selected symbol has no price data on the chart/timeframe, the table shows "—".
Shares are computed as amt ÷ current close from the requested symbol and timeframe.
Example of how to use this tool:
Monitor an index and execute trades on leveraged derivative products. This tool will determine the quantity of shares that can be purchased with a pre-determined dollar amount. Ex: Monitor SPX for entry/exit signals and execute trades on UPRO/SPXU/SPXL/SPXS.
Input a ticker and a dollar amount for position size, shares that can be purchased will be calculated based on the current asset price.
This tool can be helpful for those that use multiple platforms simultaneously to monitor and execute trades.
Jensen Alpha RS🧠 Jensen Alpha RS (J-Alpha RS)
Jensen Alpha RS is a quantitative performance evaluation tool designed to compare multiple assets against a benchmark using Jensen’s Alpha — a classic risk-adjusted return metric from modern portfolio theory.
It helps identify which assets have outperformed their benchmark on a risk-adjusted basis and ranks them in real time, with optional gating and visual tools. 📊
✨ Key Features
• 🧩 Multi-Asset Comparison: Evaluate up to four assets simultaneously.
• 🔀 Adaptive Benchmarking: TOTALES mode uses CRYPTOCAP:TOTALES (total crypto market cap ex-stablecoins). Dynamic mode automatically selects the strongest benchmark among BTC, ETH, and TOTALES based on rolling momentum.
• 📐 Jensen’s Alpha Calculation: Uses rolling covariance, variance, and beta to estimate α, showing how much each asset outperformed its benchmark.
• 📈 Z-Score & Consistency Metrics: Z-Score highlights statistical deviations in alpha; Consistency % shows how often α has been positive over a chosen window.
• 🚦 Trend & Zero Gates: Optional filters that require assets to be above EMA (trend) and/or have α > 0 for confirmation.
• 🏆 Leaders Board Table: Displays α, Z, Rank, Consistency %, and Gate ✓/✗ for all assets in a clear visual layout.
• 🔔 Dynamic Alerts: Get notified whenever the top alpha leader changes on confirmed (non-repainting) data.
• 🎨 Visual Enhancements: Smooth α with an SMA or color bars by the current top-performing asset.
🧭 Typical Use Cases
• 🔄 Portfolio Rotation & Relative Strength: Identify which assets consistently outperform their benchmark to optimize capital allocation.
• 🧮 Alpha Persistence Analysis: Gauge whether a trend’s performance advantage is statistically sustainable.
• 🌐 Market Regime Insight: Observe how asset leadership rotates as benchmarks shift across market cycles.
⚙️ Inputs Overview
• 📝 Assets (1–4): Select up to four tickers for evaluation.
• 🧭 Benchmark Mode: Choose between static TOTALES or Dynamic auto-selection.
• 📏 Alpha Settings: Adjustable lookback, smoothing, and consistency windows.
• 🚦 Gates: Optional trend and alpha filters to refine results.
• 🖥️ Display: Enable/disable table and customize colors.
• 🔔 Alerts: Toggle notifications on leadership changes.
🔎 Formula Basis
Jensen’s Alpha (α) is estimated as:
α = E − β × E
where β = Cov(Ra, Rb) / Var(Rb), and Ra/Rb represent asset and benchmark returns, respectively.
A positive α indicates outperformance relative to the risk-adjusted benchmark expectation. ✅
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It is NOT a signal. 🚫📉
It does not constitute financial advice, trading signals, or investment recommendations. 💬
The author is not responsible for any financial losses or trading decisions made based on this indicator. 🙏
Always perform your own analysis and use proper risk management. 🛡️
Risk ModuleThis indicator provides a visual reference for position sizing and approximate stop and target placement. It supports trade planning by calculating equalized risk per trade and maintaining consistent exposure across different markets.
For more information about the concept, see the post Position Sizing and Risk Management .
Fixed Fractional Risk
The indicator calculates the number of shares that can be traded to maintain consistent monetary risk. The formula is based on the distance between the current price and stop reference, adjusting position size proportionally. A closer stop results in a larger position size, while a wider stop results in a smaller one.
Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) ÷ (Entry Price – Stop Price)
Stop and Target
Stop placement is derived from volatility using the Average True Range (ATR). The target is plotted as a multiple of the stop distance, defining the risk-to-reward relationship in R units.
Stop = Price ± ATR × Multiplier
Target = Price ± (R × Risk Distance)
Chart Elements
The stop and target levels are plotted above and below the current price, with the stop marked by a red dot and the target by a green dot. The information table displayed on the chart shows the number of shares to trade, stop level, and target level.
Setup and Configuration
This configuration only needs to be set once, but can be adjusted later if preferred.
1. Start by setting the account size and risk percentage per trade to define the monetary amount risked on each trade. These values form the basis for position size calculation.
2. Set the ATR multiplier to determine stop distance, common values range between 1 and 3 ATR. Lower values place stops closer to price, increasing sensitivity but risking short-term noise. Higher values widen the stop, which reduces noise impact but extends time in risk.
3. Set the R-multiple to determine target distance relative to the stop. A value of 1 represents a 1:1 risk-to-reward relationship. Lower values reduce potential reward but tend to increase win rate, whereas higher values increase potential reward but tend to reduce win rate. The selection depends on system characteristics and trade expectancy.
When the parameters are defined, the indicator displays the stop, target, and calculated position size on the chart. All that remains is to enter the trade with the number of shares shown in the table and place bracket orders at the plotted stop and target levels.
Settings Overview
Account Size / Risk %: Defines account capital and per-trade exposure.
ATR Multiplier: Adjusts stop distance relative to volatility.
R Multiple: Sets target distance relative to stop (risk-reward ratio).
Position: Choose Long or Short direction.
Table Position: Controls information table placement and scale.
SPY200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ STRATEGYSummary of the Improved Strategy: When the price of AMEX:SPY is +4% above the 200SMA BUY NASDAQ:TQQQ and when the price of SPY drops to -3% under the SPY 200SMA SELL everything and slowly DCA into NASDAQ:QQQ over the next 6-12 months or until price returns to +4% above the SPY 200SMA at which point you will go back into 100% TQQQ.
Note: (if the price of QQQ goes 30% above the 200SMA of QQQ deleverage to QQQ or Sell to protect yourself from dot com level event)
More info and stats -https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/1nhye66/spy_200sma_43_tqqqqqq_long_term_investment/
MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0MNQ TopStep 50K | Ultra Quality v3.0 - Publish Summary
📊 Overview
A professional-grade trading indicator designed specifically for MNQ futures traders using TopStep funded accounts. Combines 7 technical confirmations with 5 advanced safety filters to deliver high-quality trade signals while managing drawdown risk.
🎯 Key Features
Core Signal System
7-Point Confirmation: VWAP, EMA crossovers, 15-min HTF trend, MACD, RSI, ADX, and Volume
Signal Grading: Each signal is rated A+ through D based on 7 quality factors
Quality Threshold: Adjustable minimum grade requirement (A+, A, B, C, D)
Advanced Safety Filters (Customizable)
Mean Reversion Filter - Prevents chasing extended moves beyond VWAP bands
ATR Spike Filter - Avoids trading during extreme volatility events
EMA Spacing Filter - Ensures proper trend separation (optional)
Momentum Filter - Requires consecutive directional bars (optional)
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation - Aligns with 15-min trend (optional)
TopStep Risk Management
Real-time drawdown tracking
Position sizing calculator based on remaining cushion
Daily loss limit monitoring
Consecutive loss protection
Max trades per day limiter
Visual Components
VWAP with 1σ, 2σ, 3σ bands
EMA 9/21 with cloud fill
15-min EMA 50 for HTF trend
Comprehensive metrics dashboard
Risk management panel
Filter status panel
Detailed trade labels with entry, stops, and targets
⚙️ Default Settings (Balanced for Regular Signals)
Technical Indicators
Fast EMA: 9 | Slow EMA: 21 | HTF EMA: 50 (15-min)
MACD: 10/22/9
RSI: 14 period | Thresholds: 52 (buy) / 48 (sell)
ADX: 14 period | Minimum: 20
ATR: 14 period | Stop: 2x | TP1: 2x | TP2: 3x
Volume: 1.2x average required
Session Settings
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (adjustable)
Avoids first 15 minutes after market open
Customizable trading hours
Safety Filters (Default Configuration)
✅ Mean Reversion: Enabled (2.5σ max from VWAP)
✅ ATR Spike: Enabled (2.0x threshold)
❌ EMA Spacing: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ Momentum: Disabled (can enable for quality)
❌ MTF Confirmation: Disabled (can enable for quality)
Risk Controls
Minimum Signal Quality: C (adjustable to A+ for fewer/better signals)
Min Bars Between Signals: 10
Max Trades Per Day: 5
Stop After Consecutive Losses: 2
📈 Expected Performance
With Default Settings:
Signals per week: 10-15 trades
Estimated win rate: 55-60%
Risk-Reward: 1:2 (TP1) and 1:3 (TP2)
With Aggressive Settings (Min Quality = D, All Filters Off):
Signals per week: 20-25 trades
Estimated win rate: 50-55%
With Conservative Settings (Min Quality = A, All Filters On):
Signals per week: 3-5 trades
Estimated win rate: 65-70%
🚀 How to Use
Basic Setup:
Add indicator to MNQ 5-minute chart
Adjust TopStep account settings in inputs
Set your risk per trade percentage (default: 0.5%)
Configure trading session hours
Set minimum signal quality (Start with C for balanced results)
Signal Interpretation:
Green Triangle (BUY): Long signal - all confirmations aligned
Red Triangle (SELL): Short signal - all confirmations aligned
Label Details: Shows entry, stop loss, take profit levels, position size, and signal grade
Signal Grade: A+ = Elite (6-7 points) | A = Strong (5) | B = Good (4) | C = Fair (3)
Dashboard Monitoring:
Top Right: Technical metrics and market conditions
Top Left: Filter status (which filters are passing/blocking)
Bottom Right: TopStep risk metrics and position sizing
⚡ Customization Tips
For More Signals:
Lower "Minimum Signal Quality" to D
Decrease ADX threshold to 18-20
Lower RSI thresholds to 50/50
Reduce Volume multiplier to 1.1x
Disable additional filters
For Higher Quality (Fewer Signals):
Raise "Minimum Signal Quality" to A or A+
Increase ADX threshold to 25-30
Enable all 5 advanced filters
Tighten VWAP distance to 2.0σ
Increase momentum requirement to 3-4 bars
For TopStep Compliance:
Adjust "Max Total Drawdown" and "Daily Loss Limit" to match your account
Update "Already Used Drawdown" daily
Monitor the Risk Panel for cushion remaining
Use recommended contract sizing
🛡️ Risk Disclaimer
IMPORTANT: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results
All trading involves substantial risk of loss
Use proper risk management and position sizing
Test thoroughly in paper trading before live use
The indicator does not guarantee profitable trades
Adjust settings based on your risk tolerance and trading style
Always comply with your broker's and TopStep's rules
Risk-Reward Position SizerRisk-Reward Position Sizer – Features Checklist
Purpose:
A visual calculator and position sizing tool for day traders, providing realistic risk, stop-loss, take-profit, and reward-to-risk information based on account size and position constraints.
Features:
Flexible Risk Settings
Set risk as a percentage of your account or a fixed dollar amount per trade.
Automatically calculates position size based on desired risk and stop distance.
Stop Loss Options
Stop distance can be defined as a percent of entry price or a fixed price.
Automatically adjusts stop distance when position is cash-limited to achieve your target risk.
Take Profit Options
TP can be defined as a fixed R multiple (e.g., 2R) or fixed absolute price.
Cash-Limited Position Handling
Optional “Cap Position to Account Size” prevents buying more shares than your cash allows.
Shows actual achievable risk if your cash limits position size.
Realistic Risk / Reward Calculations
Calculates Actual Risk $ based on position size and stop distance.
Calculates Projected Win $ based on take profit and position size.
Calculates Actual Reward-to-Risk (R:R) ratio using actual stop and TP.
Position Metrics
Estimated quantity of shares/contracts to buy.
Estimated position value.
Estimated leverage used relative to account size.
Top-Right Table Display
Clear, compact table showing:
Account size
Target risk $
Actual risk $
Stop distance
Quantity
Position value
Take profit and stop-loss prices
Projected win $ and %
Projected loss %
Actual R:R
Leverage
Trading Decision Aid
Gives traders a realistic snapshot of achievable risk and reward before entering a trade.
Helps avoid the common trap of setting tight stops that don’t actually match desired account risk.
Why It’s Useful:
This indicator turns abstract risk/reward concepts into concrete, actionable numbers, helping day traders size positions safely, plan stops and targets realistically, and maintain consistent risk management across trades.
21day Structure + 1xATR Extension LineThis is a 21-day structure script that is used by Alex Desjardins (Prime Trading) along with a 1xATR line to make sure entries aren't bought extended from this structure.
Market Regime IndexThe Market Regime Index is a top-down macro regime nowcasting tool that offers a consolidated view of the market’s risk appetite. It tracks 32 of the world’s most influential markets across asset classes to determine investor sentiment by applying trend-following signals to each independent asset. It features adjustable parameters and a built-in alert system that notifies investors when conditions transition between Risk-On and Risk-Off regimes. The selected markets are grouped into equities (7), fixed income (9), currencies (7), commodities (5), and derivatives (4):
Equities = S&P 500 E-mini Index Futures, Nasdaq-100 E-mini Index Futures, Russell 2000 E-mini Index Futures, STOXX Europe 600 Index Futures, Nikkei 225 Index Futures, MSCI Emerging Markets Index Futures, and S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)/Low Beta (SPLV) Ratio.
Fixed Income = US 10Y Treasury Yield, US 2Y Treasury Yield, US 10Y-02Y Yield Spread, German 10Y Bund Yield, UK 10Y Gilt Yield, US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate, US 10Y TIPS Yield, US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, and US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread.
Currencies = US Dollar Index (DXY), Australian Dollar/US Dollar, Euro/US Dollar, Chinese Yuan/US Dollar, Pound Sterling/US Dollar, Japanese Yen/US Dollar, and Bitcoin/US Dollar.
Commodities = ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, COMEX Gold Futures, COMEX Silver Futures, COMEX Copper Futures, and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Futures.
Derivatives = CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), ICE US Bond Market Volatility Index (MOVE), CBOE 3M Implied Correlation Index, and CBOE VIX Volatility Index (VVIX)/VIX.
All assets are directionally aligned with their historical correlation to the S&P 500. Each asset contributes equally based on its individual bullish or bearish signal. The overall market regime is calculated as the difference between the number of Risk-On and Risk-Off signals divided by the total number of assets, displayed as the percentage of markets confirming each regime. Green indicates Risk-On and occurs when the number of Risk-On signals exceeds Risk-Off signals, while red indicates Risk-Off and occurs when the number of Risk-Off signals exceeds Risk-On signals.
Bullish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) > (ATR × ATR Margin)
Bearish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) < –(ATR × ATR Margin)
Market Regime = (Risk-On signals – Risk-Off signals) ÷ Total assets
This indicator is designed with flexibility in mind, allowing users to include or exclude individual assets that contribute to the market regime and adjust the input parameters used for trend signal detection. These parameters apply to each independent asset, and the overall regime signal is smoothed by the signal length to reduce noise and enhance reliability. Investors can position according to the prevailing market regime by selecting factors that have historically outperformed under each regime environment to minimise downside risk and maximise upside potential:
Risk-On Equity Factors = High Beta > Cyclicals > Low Volatility > Defensives.
Risk-Off Equity Factors = Defensives > Low Volatility > Cyclicals > High Beta.
Risk-On Fixed Income Factors = High Yield > Investment Grade > Treasuries.
Risk-Off Fixed Income Factors = Treasuries > Investment Grade > High Yield.
Risk-On Commodity Factors = Industrial Metals > Energy > Agriculture > Gold.
Risk-Off Commodity Factors = Gold > Agriculture > Energy > Industrial Metals.
Risk-On Currency Factors = Cryptocurrencies > Foreign Currencies > US Dollar.
Risk-Off Currency Factors = US Dollar > Foreign Currencies > Cryptocurrencies.
In summary, the Market Regime Index is a comprehensive macro risk-management tool that identifies the current market regime and helps investors align portfolio risk with the market’s underlying risk appetite. Its intuitive, color-coded design makes it an indispensable resource for investors seeking to navigate shifting market conditions and enhance risk-adjusted performance by selecting factors that have historically outperformed. While it has proven historically valuable, asset-specific characteristics and correlations evolve over time as market dynamics change.
Risk Recommender — (Heatmap)📊 Risk Recommender — Per-Trade & Annualized (Heatmap Columns)
Estimate the optimal risk percentage for any market regime.
This tool dynamically recommends how much of your account equity to risk — either per trade or at a portfolio (annualized) level — using volatility as the guide.
⚙️ How it works
Two distinct modes give you flexibility:
1️⃣ Per-Trade (ATR-based)
• Calculates the current Average True Range (ATR) compared to its long-term baseline.
• When volatility is high (ATR ↑), risk per trade decreases to maintain constant dollar risk.
• When volatility is low (ATR ↓), risk per trade increases within your defined floor and ceiling.
• The display is normalized by stop distance (× ATR) and smoothed to avoid noise.
2️⃣ Annualized (Volatility Targeting)
• Computes realized volatility (standard deviation of log returns) and an EWMA forecast of future volatility.
• Blends current and forecast volatilities to estimate “effective” volatility.
• Scales your base risk so that portfolio volatility converges toward your chosen annual target (e.g., 20%).
• Useful for portfolio-level or systematic strategies that maintain constant volatility exposure.
🎨 Heatmap Visualization
The vertical column graph acts like a thermometer:
• 🟥 Red → “Reduce risk” (volatility high).
• 🟩 Green → “Increase risk” (volatility low).
• Smoothed and bounded between your Floor and Ceiling risk levels.
• Optional dotted guides mark those bounds.
• Label shows the current mode, recommended risk %, and key metrics (ATR ratio or effective volatility).
🔧 Key Inputs
• Base max risk per trade (%) — your normal per-trade risk budget.
• ATR length / Baseline ATR length — control sensitivity to short- vs. long-term volatility.
• Target annualized volatility (%) — portfolio volatility target for quant mode.
• λ (lambda) — smoothing factor for the EWMA volatility forecast (0.90–0.99 typical).
• Floor & Ceiling — clamps the output to avoid extreme sizing.
• Smoothing & Hysteresis — prevent rapid changes in risk recommendations.
🧮 Interpreting the Output
• “Recommended Risk (%)” = suggested portion of equity to risk on the next trade (or current exposure).
• In Per-Trade mode: reflects current ATR ÷ baseline ATR .
• In Annualized mode: reflects target volatility ÷ effective volatility .
• Use the color and height of the column as a quick visual cue for aggressiveness.
💡 Typical Use Cases
• Position-sizing overlay for discretionary traders.
• Volatility-targeting component for algorithmic or multi-asset systems.
• Educational tool to understand how volatility governs prudent risk management.
📘 Notes
• This indicator provides risk suggestions only ; it does not place trades.
• Works on any symbol or timeframe.
• Combine with your own strategy or alerts for full automation.
• All calculations use built-in Pine functions; no proprietary logic.
Tags:
#RiskManagement #ATR #Volatility #Quant #PositionSizing #SystematicTrading #AlgorithmicTrading #Portfolio #TradingStrategy #Heatmap #EWMA #Risk
15-Min RSI Scalper [SwissAlgo]15-Min RSI Scalper
Tracks RSI Momentum Loss and Gain to Generate Signals
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR CALCULATES
This indicator attempts to identify RSI directional changes (RSI momentum) using a step-by-step "ladder" method. It reads RSI(14) from the next higher timeframe relative to your chart. On a 15-minute chart, it uses 1-hour RSI. On a 5-minute chart, it uses 15-minute RSI, and so on.
How the ladder logic works:
The indicator doesn't track RSI all the time. It only starts tracking when RSI crosses into potentially extreme territory (these are called "events" in the code):
For sell signals : when RSI crosses above a dynamic upper threshold (typically between 60-80, calculated as the 90th percentile of recent RSI)
For buy signals : when RSI crosses below a dynamic lower threshold (typically between 20-40, calculated as the 10th percentile of recent RSI)
Once tracking begins, RSI movement is divided into 2-point steps (boxes). The indicator counts how many boxes RSI climbs or falls.
A signal generates only when:
RSI reverses direction by at least 2 boxes (4 RSI points) from its extreme
RSI holds that reversal for 3 consecutive confirmed bars
Example: Dynamic threshold is at 68. RSI crosses above 68 → tracking starts. RSI climbs to 76 (4 boxes up). Then it drops back to 72 and stays below that level for 3 bars → sell signal prints. The buy signal works the same way in reverse.
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SIGNAL GENERATION METHODOLOGY
Sell Signal (Red Triangle)
RSI crosses above a dynamic start level (calculated as the 90th percentile of the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80)
Indicator tracks upward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and drops below a boundary 2 boxes below the highest box reached
RSI remains below that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Red triangle plots above price
Reset condition: RSI returns below 50
Buy Signal (Green Triangle)
RSI crosses below a dynamic start level (10th percentile of last 1000 bars, constrained between 20-40)
Indicator tracks downward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and rises above a boundary 2 boxes above the lowest box reached
RSI remains above that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Green triangle plots below price
Reset condition: RSI returns above 50
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TECHNICAL PARAMETERS
All parameters are hardcoded:
RSI Period: 14
Box Size: 2 RSI points
Reversal Threshold: 2 boxes (4 RSI points)
Confirmation Period: 3 bars
Reset Level: RSI 50
Sell Start Range: 60-80 (dynamic)
Buy Start Range: 20-40 (dynamic)
Lookback for Percentile: 1000 bars
Note: Since the code is open source, users can modify these hardcoded values directly in the script to adjust sensitivity. For example, increasing the confirmation period from 3 to 5 bars will produce fewer but more conservative signals. Decreasing the box size from 2 to 1 will make the indicator more responsive to smaller RSI movements.
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KEY FEATURES
Automatic Higher Timeframe RSI
When applied to a 15-minute chart, the indicator automatically reads 1-hour RSI data. This is the next standard timeframe above 15 minutes in the indicator's logic.
Dynamic Adaptive Start Levels
Sell signals use the 90th percentile of RSI over the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80. Buy signals use the 10th percentile, constrained between 20-40. These thresholds recalculate on each bar based on recent data.
Ladder Box System
RSI movements are tracked in 2-point boxes. The indicator requires a 2-box reversal followed by 3 consecutive bars maintaining that reversal before generating a signal.
Dual Signal Output
Red down-triangles plot above price when the sell signal conditions are met. Green up-triangles plot below the price when buy signal conditions are met.
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REPAINTING
This indicator does not repaint. All calculations use "barstate.isconfirmed" to ensure signals appear only on closed bars. The request.security() call uses lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off to prevent forward-looking bias.
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INTENDED CHART TIMEFRAME
This indicator is designed for use on 15-minute charts. The visual reminder table at the top of the chart indicates this requirement.
On a 15-minute chart:
RSI data comes from the 1-hour timeframe
Signals reflect 1-hour momentum shifts
3-bar confirmation equals 45 minutes of price action
Using it on other timeframes will change the higher timeframe RSI source and may produce different behavior.
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT DO
Does not predict future price movements
Does not provide entry or exit advice
Does not guarantee profitable trades
Does not replace comprehensive technical analysis
Does not account for fundamental factors, news events, or market structure
Does not adapt to all market conditions equally
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EDUCATIONAL USE
This indicator demonstrates one approach to momentum reversal detection using:
Multi-timeframe analysis
Adaptive thresholds via percentile calculation
Step-wise momentum tracking
Multi-bar confirmation logic
It is designed as a technical study, not a trading system. Signals represent calculated conditions based on RSI behavior, not trade recommendations. Always do your own analysis before taking market positions.
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RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This indicator:
Is for educational and informational purposes only
Does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice
Should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions
Has not been tested across all market conditions
May produce false signals, late signals, or no signals in certain conditions
Past performance of any indicator does not predict future results. Users must conduct their own analysis and risk assessment before making trading decisions. Always use proper risk management, including stop losses and position sizing appropriate to your account and risk tolerance.
MIT LICENSE
This code is open source and provided as-is without warranties of any kind. You may use, modify, and distribute it freely under the MIT License.
Ajay R5.41🔻 Ajay Gold 3H Power Indicator 🔻
Precision-Based Smart Sell System for Gold (XAU/USD)
💡 Overview
This indicator is specifically designed for Gold (XAU/USD) and delivers best results on the 3-Hour Timeframe (3H TF).
It is a Smart Money Logic-based Sell Confirmation System, combining institutional structure and candle behavior to generate highly accurate bearish signals.
⚙️ Technical Foundation
The indicator uses multiple advanced confirmations:
📉 EMA Trend Filter → Confirms downtrend
💪 RSI Overbought Rejection → Momentum reversal signal
📊 MACD Bearish Cross → Confirms trend strength
🕯️ Bearish Candle Structure → Price action validation
When all conditions align, a clear 🔻 Sell Signal is plotted on the chart.
💎 Hidden Feature
This indicator includes a hidden feature that activates only when the correct market structure forms.
It helps reduce false signals and increases accuracy without being visible on the chart — fully automated internal logic.
📆 Recommended Settings
Symbol: XAU/USD (Gold)
Timeframe: 3-Hour (3H)
Market: Forex / Commodity
Mode: Sell-Only Confirmation Indicator
Performance: Best precision and consistency on 3H TF
📈 How to Use
Select XAU/USD on chart and set 3H timeframe.
Add the indicator to the chart.
Wait for the 🔻 Sell Signal and confirm the market structure after candle close.
Take entry according to your risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only.
No system is 100% accurate — always backtest and demo trade before using in real trading.
💬 Credits
Developed by Ajay Sahu (India)
Based on Institutional & Smart Money Logic
Best results on 3H TF
Hidden Algorithm for XAU/USD traders
PnL PortfolioThis indicator provides a comprehensive, real-time overview of your open trading portfolio directly on the chart. It allows you to track up to 20 different trading pairs simultaneously.
For each asset, simply input the Pair Symbol, Average Entry Price, and Position Quantity. The script securely fetches the current market price and dynamically calculates and displays a customizable table showing:
Real-Time Profit/Loss ($)
Percentage PnL (%)
Entry Price and Position Quantity
The table uses color coding to clearly highlight profitable (green) or losing (red) positions, and its location on the chart (top/bottom, left/right) is fully adjustable.
PnL TrackerThis script allows you to manually input the details for up to 64 unique positions in the settings, each requiring a Symbol, Average Cost, and Quantity (Qty).
Key Features:
Average Cost Line: Plots a horizontal line on the chart corresponding to your recorded Average Cost for the security currently being viewed.
Real-Time PnL Label: A dynamic label attached to the Average Cost line provides an instant summary of your PnL in both percentage and currency for the last visible bar.
Detailed PnL Box: Displays a consolidated, easy-to-read table in the bottom-right corner of the chart, clearly showing:
The Symbol and Quantity of your position.
Your Average Cost.
The current PnL in percentage (%) and base currency (e.g., USD, EUR).
Visibility Controls: Toggles in the settings allow you to show or hide the Average Cost line and the PnL summary box independently.
This tool is perfect for actively managing and visualizing your multi-asset portfolio positions without leaving your main trading chart. Simply enter your positions in the indicator's settings, and the script will automatically track the PnL for the symbol matching the current chart.
Stop Loss and TargetsEnter your purchase price, SL% and up to 3x TP%s. Automatically plots them on your chart to enable quicker set up of alerts.
PnL PortfolioThis script allows you to input the details for up to 20 active positions across various trading pairs or markets. Stop manually calculating your trades—get instant, real-time feedback on your performance.
Key Features:
Multi-Pair Tracking: Monitor up to 20 unique symbols simultaneously.
Required Inputs: Easily define the Symbol, Entry Price, and Position Quantity (size) for each trade in the indicator settings.
Real-Time PnL: Instantly calculates and displays two critical metrics based on the current market price:
% PnL (Percentage Profit/Loss)
Absolute Profit/Loss (in currency)
Color-Coded Feedback: The PnL columns are color-coded (green/teal for profit, red/maroon for loss) for immediate visual confirmation of your trade health.
Customizable Layout: Choose where the dashboard table appears on your chart (top-left, top-right, bottom-left, or bottom-right) to keep your trading view clean.
This is an essential overlay for any trader managing multiple active positions and needing a consolidated, easy-to-read overview.
Performance-based Asset Weighting(MTF)**Performance-Based Asset Weighting (MTF/Symbol Free Setting)**
#### Overview
This indicator is a tool that visualizes the relative strength of performance (price change rate) as “weight (allocation ratio)” for **four user-defined stocks**.
By setting any specified past point in time as the baseline (where all symbols are equally weighted at 25%), it aims to provide an intuitive understanding of which symbols outperformed others and attracted capital, or underperformed and saw capital outflows.
**【Default Settings and Application Scenario: Pension Fund Rebalancing Analysis】**
The default settings reference the basic portfolio of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), configuring four major asset classes: domestic equities, foreign equities, domestic bonds, and foreign bonds. It is known that when market fluctuations cause deviations from this equal-weighted ratio, rebalancing occurs to restore the original ratio (selling assets whose weight has increased and buying assets whose weight has decreased).
Analyzing using this default setting can serve as a reference point for considering **“whether rebalancing sales (or purchases) by pension funds and similar entities are likely to occur in the future.”**
**【Important: Usage Notes】**
The weights shown by this indicator are **theoretical reference values** calculated solely based on performance from the specified start date. Even if large investors conduct significant rebalancing (asset buying/selling) during the period, those transactions themselves are not reflected in this chart's calculations.
Therefore, please understand that the actual portfolio ratios may differ. **Use this solely as a rough guideline. **
#### Key Features
* **Freely configure the 4 assets for analysis:** You can freely set any 4 assets (stocks, indices, currencies, cryptocurrencies, etc.) you wish to compare via the settings screen.
* **Performance-based weight calculation:** Rather than simple price composition ratios, it calculates each asset's price change since the specified start date as a “performance index” and displays each asset's proportion of the total sum.
* **Freely set analysis start date:** You can set any desired starting point for analysis, such as “after the XX shock” or “after earnings announcements,” using the calendar.
* **Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Support:** Independently of the timeframe displayed on the chart, you can freely select the timeframe (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour, daily) used by the indicator for calculations.
#### Calculation Principle
This indicator calculates weights in the following three steps:
1. **Obtaining the Base Price**
Obtain the closing price for each of the four stocks on the user-set “Start Date for Weight Calculation.” This becomes the **base price** for analysis.
2. **Calculating the Performance Index**
Divide the current price of each stock by the **base price** obtained in Step 1 to calculate the “Performance Index”.
`Performance Index = Current Price ÷ Base Date Price`
This quantifies how many times the current performance has increased compared to the base date performance, which is set to “1”.
3. **Calculating Weights**
Sum the “Performance Indexes” of the four stocks. Then, calculate the percentage contribution of each stock's Performance Index to this total sum and plot it on the chart.
`Weight (%) = (Individual Performance Index ÷ Total Performance Index of 4 Stocks) × 100`
Using this logic, on the analysis start date, all stocks' performance indices are set to “1”, so the weights start equally at 25%.
#### Usage
* **Application Example 1: Market Sentiment Analysis (Using Default Settings)**
Analyze using the default asset classes. By observing the relative strength between “Equities” and “Bonds”, you can assess whether the market is risk-on or risk-off.
* **Application Example 2: Sector/Theme Strength Analysis**
Configure settings for groups like “Top 4 semiconductor stocks” or “4 GAFAM stocks.” Setting the start date to the beginning of the year or earnings season allows you to instantly compare which stocks within the same sector are performing best.
* **Application Example 3: Cryptocurrency Power Map Analysis**
By setting major cryptocurrencies like “BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA,” you can analyze which currencies are attracting market capital.
**【About Legend Display】**
Due to Pine Script specification constraints, the legend on the chart will display fixed names: **“Stock 1” to “Stock 4”. **
Please note that the symbol you entered for “Symbol 1” in the settings corresponds to the “Symbol 1” line on the chart.
#### Settings
* **Symbol 1 to Symbol 4:** Set the four symbols you wish to analyze.
* **Timeframe for Calculation:** Select the timeframe the indicator references when calculating weights.
* **Start Date for Weight Calculation:** This serves as the base date for comparing performance.
#### Disclaimer
This script is solely a tool to assist with market analysis and does not recommend buying or selling any specific financial instruments. Please make all final investment decisions at your own discretion.
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**Performance-based Asset Weighting（MTF・シンボル自由設定）**
#### 概要
このインジケーターは、**ユーザーが自由に設定した4つの銘柄**について、パフォーマンス（騰落率）の相対的な強さを「ウェイト（構成比率）」として可視化するツールです。
指定した過去の任意の時点を基準（全銘柄が均等な25%）として、そこからどの銘柄のパフォーマンスが他の銘柄を上回り、資金が向かっているのか、あるいは下回っているのかを直感的に把握することを目的としています。
**【デフォルト設定と活用シナリオ：年金基金のリバランス考察】**
デフォルト設定では、日本の年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人（GPIF）の基本ポートフォリオを参考に、主要4資産クラス（国内株式, 外国株式, 国内債券, 外国債券）が設定されています。市場の変動によってこの均等な比率に乖離が生じると、元の比率に戻すためのリバランス（比率が増えた資産を売り、減った資産を買う）が行われることが知られています。
このデフォルト設定で分析することで、**「今後、年金基金などによるリバランスの売り（買い）が発生する可能性があるか」を考察するための、一つの目安として利用できます。**
**【重要：利用上の注意点】**
このインジケーターが示すウェイトは、あくまで指定した開始日からのパフォーマンスのみを基に算出した**理論上の参考値**です。実際に大口投資家などが途中で大規模なリバランス（資産の売買）を行ったとしても、その取引自体はこのチャートの計算には反映されません。
そのため、実際のポートフォリオ比率とは異なる可能性があることをご理解の上、**あくまで大まかな目安としてご活用ください。**
#### 主な特徴
* **分析対象の4銘柄を自由に設定可能:** 設定画面から、比較したい4つの銘柄（株式、指数、為替、仮想通貨など）を自由に設定できます。
* **パフォーマンス基準のウェイト計算:** 単純な価格の構成比ではなく、指定した開始日からの各銘柄の騰落を「パフォーマンス指数」として算出し、その合計に占める各銘柄の割合を表示します。
* **分析開始日の自由な設定:** 「〇〇ショック後」「決算発表後」など、分析したい任意の時点をカレンダーから設定できます。
* **マルチタイムフレーム（MTF）対応:** チャートに表示している時間足とは別に、インジケーターが計算に使う時間足（1時間足、4時間足、日足など）を自由に選択できます。
#### 計算の原理
このインジケーターは、以下の3ステップでウェイトを算出しています。
1. **基準価格の取得**
ユーザーが設定した「ウェイト計算の開始日」における、4つの各銘柄の終値を取得し、これを分析の**基準価格**とします。
2. **パフォーマンス指数の算出**
現在の各銘柄の価格を、ステップ1で取得した**基準価格**で割ることで、「パフォーマンス指数」を算出します。
`パフォーマンス指数 = 現在の価格 ÷ 基準日の価格`
これにより、基準日のパフォーマンスを「1」とした場合、現在のパフォーマンスが何倍になっているかが数値化されます。
3. **ウェイトの算出**
4つの銘柄の「パフォーマンス指数」の合計値を算出します。そして、合計値に占める各銘柄のパフォーマンス指数の割合（%）を計算し、チャートに描画します。
`ウェイト (%) = (個別のパフォーマンス指数 ÷ 4銘柄のパフォーマンス指数の合計) × 100`
このロジックにより、分析開始日には全銘柄のパフォーマンス指数が「1」となるため、ウェイトは均等に25%からスタートします。
#### 使用方法
* **応用例1：市場のセンチメント分析（デフォルト設定利用）**
デフォルト設定の資産クラスで分析し、「株式」と「債券」の力関係を見ることで、市場がリスクオンなのかリスクオフなのかを判断する材料になります。
* **応用例2：セクター・テーマ別の強弱分析**
設定画面で、例えば「半導体関連の主要4銘柄」や「GAFAMの4銘柄」などを設定します。開始日を年初や決算時期に設定することで、同セクター内でどの銘柄が最もパフォーマンスが良いかを一目で比較できます。
* **応用例3：仮想通貨の勢力図分析**
「BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA」など、主要な仮想通貨を設定することで、市場の資金がどの通貨に向かっているのかを分析できます。
**【凡例の表示について】**
Pine Scriptの仕様上の制約により、チャート上の凡例は**「銘柄1」〜「銘柄4」という固定名で表示されます。**
お手数ですが、設定画面でご自身が「銘柄1」に入力したシンボルが、チャート上の「銘柄1」のラインに対応する、という形でご覧ください。
#### 設定項目
* **銘柄1〜銘柄4:** 分析したい4つのシンボルをそれぞれ設定します。
* **計算に使う時間足:** インジケーターがウェイトを計算する際に参照する時間足を選択します。
* **ウェイト計算の開始日:** パフォーマンスを比較する上での基準日となります。
#### 免責事項
このスクリプトはあくまで市場分析を補助するためのツールであり、特定の金融商品の売買を推奨するものではありません。投資の最終的な判断は、ご自身の責任において行ってください。
BFM Yen Carry to Risk Ratio (Dynamic Rates)Shows risk of yen carry trade unwinding. Based on cost to borrow from Japan to buy us stocks compared to interest rate in USA.
