Bullish Gartley Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically draws bullish Gartley harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Support and Resistance
• Support refers to a price level where the demand for an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further.
• Resistance refers to a price level where the supply of an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.
Support and resistance levels are important because they can help traders identify where the price of an asset might pause or reverse its direction, offering potential entry and exit points. For example, a trader might look to buy an asset when it approaches a support level , with the expectation that the price will bounce back up. Alternatively, a trader might look to sell an asset when it approaches a resistance level , with the expectation that the price will drop back down.
It's important to note that support and resistance levels are not always relevant, and the price of an asset can also break through these levels and continue moving in the same direction.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend, or higher peak, and continues until a new downtrend, or lower peak, completes the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend, or lower peak, and continues until a new return line uptrend, or higher peak, completes the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend, or higher trough, and continues until a new return line downtrend, or lower trough, completes the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend, or lower trough, and continues until a new uptrend, or higher trough, completes the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements. The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
Bullish and Bearish Gartley Patterns
• Bullish Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks, with the second peak being lower than the first peak and the third trough being lower than the second but higher than the first.
• Bearish Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs, with the second trough being higher than the first trough and the third peak being higher than the second but lower than the first.
The most commonly recognised ratio measurements used by traders today are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace to 61.8% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should retrace by at least 38.2%, but no further than 88.6% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should extend to at least 127.2%, but no further than 161.8% of the range set by wave 3.
• The last measure, generally referred to as AD, is that of wave 4 as a ratio of the range set by wave 1, which should retrace to 78.6%.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have introduced the concept of measurement tolerances to harmonic pattern identification.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, for example, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• AD Lower Tolerance
• AD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
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Market Crashes/Chart Timeframes HighlightThis extremely helpful indicator allows you to highlight 7 custom date-based timeframes on your charts.
The default dates selected are what I consider to be the most significant 7 most recent market declines, including and since the 87 flash crash.
Note: The default dates are approximate but good enough to highlight the key timeframes of these pullbacks/crashes/corrections.
It's simple to use and does exactly what it should.
I created this indicator to make it easier when looking at the overall story of a chart. I found it helpful to highlight these areas to see how a market or equity has responded during these significant market pullbacks.
The highlight alone I’ve found helpful, and it becomes more powerful if you combine it with your own trusted trade system.
Also, to get the most out of using the default dates it’s important to understand the narrative behind each pullback/crash. Here’s the list of what I consider significant pullbacks:
Black Monday - Oct 87
1990s Recession - Jul 90 to Mar 91
Dot Com Bubble - 2000 to 2002 or so
Real Estate 2008 Crisis - I choose 2007-2009 to cover full insider knowledge and aftermath
2016 - 2018 - This isn't seen as a pullback, but I have it as significant because in many markets and equities, this was an almost equal percentage pullback as 2008. See Notes below
2020 Crash - Covid-19 and related shenanigans pullback
April 2021 to August 2022 - I believe we are in a current SHORT cycle so I've highlighted April 2021 as the start of what might be the start of a major decline testing Dot Com or lower levels.
A few notes on the above.
You'll find on most of the pullbacks listed above most equities and related markets behave similarly or have similar patterns.
The 2016-18 pullback is the most difficult to track. For instance, GE in this timeframe had a -80% decline, whereas BA depending on how you want to measure it had a 50-110% gain.
Rule Of 20 - Fair Value Estimation by Inflation & Earnings (TG)The Rule Of 20 is a heuristic calculation to find the fair value of an asset or market given its earnings and current inflation.
Its calculation is straightforward: the fair multiple of the price or price-to-earnings ratio of a stock should be 20 minus the rate of inflation.
In math terms: fair_price-to-earnings_ratio = (20 - inflation) ; fair_value = current_price * fair_price-to-earnings_ratio / real_price-to-earnings_ratio
For example, if a stock or index was trading on 11 times earnings and inflation was 2%, then the theory would be that the fair price-to-earnings ratio would be 20-2 = 18, which is much higher than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 11, and hence the asset would be undervalued.
Conversely, a market or company that was trading on 18 times price-to-earnings ration when inflation was 8% was seen as overvalued, because of the fair price-to-earnings ratio being 20-8=12, hence much lower than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 18.
We can then project the delta between the fair PE and real PE onto the asset's value to obtain the projected fair value, which may be a target of future value the asset may reach or hover around.
For example, as of 1st November 2022, SPX stood at 3871.97, with a PE ratio of 20.14 and an inflation in the US of 7.70. Using the Rule Of 20, we find that the fair PE ratio is 20-7.7=12.3, which is much lower than the current PE ratio of 20.14 by 39%! This may indicate a future possibility of a further downside risk by 39% from current valuation levels.
The origins of this rule are unknown, although the legendary US fund manager Peter Lynch is said to have been an active proponent when he was directing the Fidelity’s Magellan fund from 1977 to 1990.
For more infos about the Rule Of 20, reading this article is recommended: www.sharesmagazine.co.uk
This indicator implements the Rule Of 20 on any asset where the Financials are availble to TradingView, and also for the entire SP:SPX index as a way to assess the wider US stock market. Technically, the calculation is a bit different for the latter, as we cannot access earnings of SPX through Financials on TradingView, so we access it using the QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH ticker instead.
By default are displayed:
current asset value in red
fair asset value according to the Rule Of 20 in white for SPX, or different shades of purple/maroon for other assets. Note that for SPX there is only one calculation, whereas for other assets there are multiple different ways to calculate earnings, so different fair values can be computed.
fair price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) in light grey.
real price-to-earnings ratio in darker grey.
This indicator can be used on SP:SPX ticker, and on most NASDAQ:* tickers, since they have Financials integrated in TradingView. Stocks tickers from other exchanges may not provide Financials data, so this indicator won't work then. If this happens, try to find the same ticker on NASDAQ instead.
Note that by default, only the US stock market is considered. If you want to consider stocks or assets in other regions of the world, please change the inflation ticker to a ticker that reflect the target region's inflation.
Also adding a table to ease interpretation was considered, but then the Timeframe MTF parameter would not work, and since the big advantage of this indicator is to allow for historical comparisons, the table was dropped.
Enjoy, and keep in mind that all models are wrong, but some are useful.
Trade safely!
TG
Hodrick-Prescott MACD [Loxx]Hodrick-Prescott MACD is a MACD indicator using a Hodrick-Prescott Filter.
What is Hodrick–Prescott filter?
The Hodrick–Prescott filter (also known as Hodrick–Prescott decomposition) is a mathematical tool used in macroeconomics, especially in real business cycle theory, to remove the cyclical component of a time series from raw data. It is used to obtain a smoothed-curve representation of a time series, one that is more sensitive to long-term than to short-term fluctuations. The adjustment of the sensitivity of the trend to short-term fluctuations is achieved by modifying a multiplier Lambda.
The filter was popularized in the field of economics in the 1990s by economists Robert J. Hodrick and Nobel Memorial Prize winner Edward C. Prescott, though it was first proposed much earlier by E. T. Whittaker in 1923.
There are some drawbacks to use the HP filter than you can read here: en.wikipedia.org
Included
Bar coloring
3 types of signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Hodrick-Prescott Channel [Loxx]Hodrick-Prescott Channel is a fast and slow moving average that moves inside a channel. Breakouts are when the fast ma crosses up over the slow ma and breakdowns are the opposite. The white moving average is the fast ma, the slow moving average is the red/green ma.
What is Hodrick–Prescott filter?
The Hodrick–Prescott filter (also known as Hodrick–Prescott decomposition) is a mathematical tool used in macroeconomics, especially in real business cycle theory, to remove the cyclical component of a time series from raw data. It is used to obtain a smoothed-curve representation of a time series, one that is more sensitive to long-term than to short-term fluctuations. The adjustment of the sensitivity of the trend to short-term fluctuations is achieved by modifying a multiplier Lambda.
The filter was popularized in the field of economics in the 1990s by economists Robert J. Hodrick and Nobel Memorial Prize winner Edward C. Prescott, though it was first proposed much earlier by E. T. Whittaker in 1923.
There are some drawbacks to use the HP filter than you can read here: en.wikipedia.org
Included
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Real Woodies CCIAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
Ken Wood is a semi-famous trader that grew in popularity in the 1990s and early 2000s due to the establishment of one of the earliest trading forums online. This forum grew into "Woodie's CCI Club" due to Wood's love of his modified Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that he used extensively. From what I can tell, the website is still active and still follows the same core principles it did in the early days, the CCI is used for entries, range bars are used to help trader's cut down on the noise, and the optional addition of Woodie's Pivot Points can be used as further confirmation of support and resistance. This is my take on his famous "Woodie's CCI" that has become standard on many charting packages through the years, including a TradingView sponsored version as one of the many stock indicators provided by TradingView. Woodie has updated his CCI through the years to include several very cool additions outside of the standard CCI. I will have to say, I am a bit biased, but I think this is hands down one of the best indicators I have ever used, and I am far too young to have been part of the original CCI Club. Being a daytrader primarily, this fits right in my timeframe wheel house. Woodie designed this indicator to work on a day-trading time scale and he frequently uses this to trade futures and commodity contracts on the 30 minute, often even down to the one minute timeframe. This makes it unique in that it is probably one of the only daytrading-designed indicators out there that I am aware of that was not a popular indicator, like the MACD or RSI, that was just adopted by daytraders.
The CCI was originally created by Donald Lambert in 1980. Over time, it has become an extremely popular house-hold indicator, like the Stochastics, RSI, or MACD. However, like the RSI and Stochastics, there are extensive debates on how the CCI is actually meant to be used. Some trade it like a reversal indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are considered overbought or oversold, respectively. Others trade it like a typical zero-line cross indicator, where once the value goes above or below the zero-line, a trade should be considered in that direction. Lastly, some treat it as strictly a momentum indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are seen as strong momentum moves and when these values are reached, a new strong trend is establishing in the direction of the move. The CCI itself is nothing fancy, it just visualizes the distance of the closing price away from a user-defined SMA value and plots it as a line. However, Woodie's CCI takes this simple concept and adds to it with an indicator with 5 pieces to it designed to help the trader enter into the highest probability setups. Bear with me, it initially looks super complicated, but I promise it is pretty straight-forward and a fun indicator to use.
1) The CCI Histogram. This is your standard CCI value that you would find on the normal CCI. Woodie's CCI uses a value of 14 for most trades and a value of 20 when the timeframe is equal to or greater than 30minutes. I personally use this as a 20-period CCI on all time frames, simply for the fact that the 20 SMA is a very popular moving average and I want to know what the crowd is doing. This is your coloured histogram with 4 colours. A gray colouring is for any bars above or below the zero line for 1-4 bars. A yellow bar is a "trend bar", where the long period CCI has been above/below the zero line for 5 consecutive bars, indicating that a trend in the current direction has been established. Blue bars above and red bars below are simply 6+n number of bars above or below the zero line confirming trend. These are used for the Zero-Line Reject Trade (explained below). The CCI Histogram has a matching long-period CCI line that is painted the same colour as the histogram, it is the same thing but is used just to outline the Histogram a bit better.
2) The CCI Turbo line. This is a sped-up 6 period CCI. This is to be used for the Zero-Line Reject trades, trendline breaks, and to identify shorter term overbought/oversold conditions against the main trend. This is coloured as the white line.
3) The Least Squares Moving Average Baseline (LSMA) Zero Line. You will notice that the Zero Line of the indicator is either green or red. This is based on when price is above or below the 25-period LSMA on the chart. The LSMA is a 25 period linear regression moving average and is one of the best moving averages out there because it is more immune to noise than a typical MA. Statistically, an LSMA is designed to find the line of best fit across the lookback periods and identify whether price is advancing, declining, or flat, without the whipsaw that other MAs can be privy to. The zero line of the indicator will turn green when the close candle is over the LSMA or red when it is below the LSMA. This is meant to be a confirmation tool only and the CCI Histogram and Turbo Histogram can cross this zero line without any corresponding change in the colour of the zero line on that immediate candle.
4) The +100 and -100 lines are used in two ways. First, they can be used by the CCI Histogram and CCI Turbo as a sort of minor price resistance and if the CCI values cannot get through these, it is considered weakness in that trade direction until they do so. You will notice that both of these lines are multi-coloured. They have been plotted with the ChopZone Indicator, another TradingView built-in indicator. The ChopZone is a trend identification tool that uses the slope and the direction of a 34-period EMA to identify when price is trending or range bound. While there are ~10 different colours, the main two a trader needs to pay attention to are the turquoise/cyan blue, which indicates price is in an uptrend, and dark red, which indicates price is in a downtrend based on the slope and direction of the 34 EMA. All other colours indicate "chop". These colours are used solely for the Zero-Line Reject and pattern trades discussed below. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
5) The +200 and -200 lines are also used in two ways. First, they are considered overbought/oversold levels where if price exceeds these lines then it has moved an extreme amount away from the average and is likely to experience a pullback shortly. This is more useful for the CCI Histogram than the Turbo CCI, in all honesty. You will also notice that these are coloured either red, green, or yellow. This is the Sidewinder indicator portion. The documentation on this is extremely sparse, only pointing to a "relationship between the LSMA and the 34 EMA" (see here: tlc.thinkorswim.com). Since I am not a member of Woodie's CCI Club and never intend to be I took some liberty here and decided that the most likely relationship here was the slope of both moving averages. Therefore, the Sidewinder will be green when both the LSMA and the 34 EMA are rising, red when both are falling, and yellow when they are not in agreement with one another (i.e. one rising/flat while the other is flat/falling). I am a big fan of Dr. Alexander Elder as those who follow me know, so consider this like Woodie's version of the Elder Impulse System. I will fully admit that this version of the Sidewinder is a guess and may not represent the real Sidewinder indicator, but it is next to impossible to find any information on this, so I apologize, but my version does do something useful anyways. This is also to be used only with the Zero-Line Reject trades. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
How to Trade It According to Woodie's CCI Club:
Now that I have all of my components and history out of the way, this is what you all care about. I will only provide a brief overview of the trades in this system, but there are quite a few more detailed descriptions listed in the Woodie's CCI Club pamphlet. I have had little success trading the "patterns" but they do exist and do work on occasion. I just prefer to trade with the flow of the markets rather than getting overly scalpy. If you are interested in these patterns, see the pamphlet here (www.trading-attitude.com), hop into the forums and see for yourself, or check out a couple of the YouTube videos.
1) Zero line cross. As simple as any other momentum oscillator out there. When the long period CCI crosses above or below the zero line open a trade in that direction. Extra confirmation can be had when the CCI Turbo has already broken the +100/-100 line "resistance or support". Trend traders may wish to wait until the yellow "trend confirmation bar" has been printed.
2) Zero Line Reject. This is when the CCI Turbo heads back down to the zero line and then bounces back in the same direction of the prevailing trend. These are fantastic continuation trades if you missed the initial entry either on the zero line cross or on the trend bar establishment. ZLR trades are only viable when you have the ChopZone indicator showing a trend (turquoise/cyan for uptrend, dark red for downtrend), the LSMA line is green for an uptrend or red for a downtrend, and the SideWinder is either green confirming the uptrend or red confirming the downtrend.
3) Hook From Extreme. This is the exact same as the Zero Line Reject trade, however, the CCI Turbo now goes to the +100/-100 line (whichever is opposite the currently established trend) and then hooks back into the established trend direction. Ideally the HFE trade needs to have the Long CCI Histogram above/below the corresponding 100 level and the CCI Turbo both breaks the 100 level on the trend side and when it does break it has increased ~20 points from the previous value (i.e. CCI Histogram = +150 with LSMA, CZ, and SW all matching up and trend bars printed on CCI Histogram, CCI Turbo went to -120 and bounced to +80 on last 2 bars, current bar closes with CCI Turbo closing at +110).
4) Trend Line Break. Either the CCI Turbo or CCI Histogram, whichever you prefer (I find the Turbo a bit more accurate since its a faster value) creates a series of higher highs/lows you can draw a trend line linking them. When the line breaks the trendline that is your signal to take a counter trade position. For example, if the CCI Turbo is making consistently higher lows and then breaks the trendline through the zero line, you can then go short. This is a good continuation trade.
5) The Tony Trade. Consider this like a combination zero line reject, trend line break, and weak zero line cross all in one. The idea is that the SW, CZ, and LSMA values are all established in one direction. The CCI Histogram should be in an established trend and then cross the zero line but never break the 100 level on the new side as long as it has not printed more than 9 bars on the new side. If the CCI Histogram prints 9 or less bars on the new side and then breaks the trendline and crosses back to the original trend side, that is your signal to take a reversal trade. This is best used in the Elder Triple Screen method (discussed in final section) as a failed dip or rip.
6) The GB100 Trade. This is a similar trade as the Tony Trade, however, the CCI Histogram can break the 100 level on the new side but has to have made less than 6 bars on the new side. A trendline break is not necessary here either, it is more of a "pop and drop" or "momentum failure" trade trying in the new direction.
7) The Famir Trade. This is a failed CCI Long Histogram ZLR trade and is quite complicated. I have never traded this but it is in the pamphlet. Essentially you have a typical ZLR reject (i.e. all components saying it is likely a long/short continuation trade), but the ZLR only stays around the 50 level, goes back to the trend side, fails there as well immediately after 1 bar and then rebreaks to the new side. This is important to be considered with the LSMA value matching the side of the trade, so if the Famir says to go long, you need the LSMA indicator to also say to go long.
8) The Vegas Trade. This is essentially a trend-reversal trade that takes into account the LSMA and a cup and handle formation on the CCI Long Histogram after it has reached an extreme value (+200/-200). You will see the CCI Histogram hit the extreme value, head towards the zero line, and then sort of round out back in the direction of the extreme price. The low point where it reversed back in the direction of the extreme can be considered support or resistance on the CCI and once the CCI Long Histogram breaks this level again, with LSMA confirmation, you can take a counter trend trade with a stop under/over the highest/lowest point of the last 2 bars as you want to be out quickly if you are wrong without much damage but can get a huge win if you are right and add later to the position once a new trade has formed.
9) The Ghost Trade. This is nothing more than a(n) (inverse) head and shoulders pattern created on the CCI. Draw a trend line connecting the head and shoulders and trade a reversal trade once the CCI Long Histogram breaks the trend line. Same deal as the Vegas Trade, stop over/under the most recent 2 bar high/low and add later if it is a winner but cut quickly if it is a loser.
Like I said, this is a complicated system and could quite literally take years to master if you wanted to go into the patterns and master them. I prefer to trade it in a much simpler format, using the Elder Triple Screen System. First, since I am a day trader, I look to use the 20 period Woodie's on the hourly and look at the CZ, SW, and LSMA values to make sure they all match the direction of the CCI Long Histogram (a trend establishment is not necessary here). It shows you the hourly trend as your "tide". I then drill down to the 15 minute time frame and use the Turbo CCI break in the opposite direction of the trend as my "wave" and to indicate when there is a dip or rip against the main trend. Lastly, I drill down to a 3 minute time frame and enter when the CCI Long Histogram turns back to match the main trend ("ripple") as long as the CCI Turbo has broken the 100 level in the matched direction.
Enjoy, and please read the pamphlet if you have any questions about the patterns as they are not how I use these and will not be able to answer those questions.
How Old Is this Bull Run Getting? Check MA Test Bars SinceThere are many price-based techniques for anticipating the end of a move. However, the simple passage of time can also help because bull markets don’t last forever. While old age doesn’t necessarily cause investors to sell, a reversal becomes more likely the longer a trend lasts.
So, how long have prices been going up? There are various ways to measure that. Our earlier script, MA streak , offered one solution by counting the number of bars that a given moving average has been rising or falling.
Today’s script takes a different approach by counting the number of candles since price touched or crossed a given moving average. It tracks the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) by default. It can be adjusted to other types like exponential and weighted with the AvgType input.
In the chart above, Bars Since MA Test was adjusted to use the 200-day SMA. Viewing the S&P 500 with this study helps put the current market into context.
We can see that prices last touched the 200-day SMA 386 sessions ago (June 29, 2020). That’s relatively long based on history, but not unprecedented. For example, the indicator was at 407 in February 2018 as the market pulled back. It also hit 475 in October 2014 (following the breakout above 2007 highs).
Additionally, the S&P 500 is nearing the record of the 1990s bull market (393 candles on July 12, 1996).
Before that, you have to look all the way back to the 1950s, when it twice peaked at 627.
The conclusion? The current run without a test of the 200-day SMA is above average, but not yet record-setting. It may be interesting to watch as earnings season approaches and the Federal Reserve looks to tighten monetary policy.
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Schaff Trend CycleThis indicator was originally developed by Doug Schaff in the 1990s (published in 2008).
GMMA Toolkit [QuantVue]The GMMA Toolkit is designed to leverage the principles of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA). This indicator is equipped with multiple features to help traders identify trends, reversals, and periods of market compression.
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a technical analysis tool developed by Australian trader and author Daryl Guppy in the late 1990s.
It utilizes two sets of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to capture both short-term and long-term market trends. The short-term EMAs represent the activity of traders, while the long-term EMAs reflect the behavior of investors.
By analyzing the interaction between these two groups of EMAs, traders can identify the strength and direction of trends, as well as potential reversals.
Due to the nature of GMMA, charts can become cluttered with numerous lines, making analysis challenging.
However, this indicator simplifies visualization by using clouds to represent the short-term and long-term EMA groups, determined by filling the area between the maximum and minimum EMAs in each group.
The GMMA Toolkit goes a step further and includes an oscillator that measures the difference between the average short-term and long-term EMAs, providing a clear visual representation of trend strength and direction.
The farther the oscillator is from the 0 level, the stronger the trend. It is plotted on a separate panel with values above zero indicating bullish conditions and values below zero indicating bearish conditions.
The inclusion of the oscillator in the GMMA Toolkit allows traders to identify earlier buy and sell signals based on the GMMA oscillator crossing the zero line compared to traditional crossover methods.
Lastly, the GMMA Toolkit features compression dots that indicate periods of market consolidation.
By measuring the spread between the maximum and minimum EMAs within both short-term and long-term groups, the indicator identifies when these spreads are significantly narrower than average by comparing the current spread to the average spread over a lookback period.
This visual cue helps traders anticipate potential breakout or breakdown scenarios, enhancing their ability to react to imminent trend changes.
By simplifying the visualization of the Guppy Multiple Moving Averages with clouds, providing earlier buy and sell signals through the oscillator, and highlighting periods of market consolidation with compression dots, this toolkit offers traders insightful tools for navigating market trends and potential reversals.
Give this indicator a BOOST and COMMENT your thoughts below!
We hope you enjoy.
Cheers!
[blackcat] L1 Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA)Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a widely used technical analysis tool that can help traders identify price trends, determine entry and exit points, and identify signals of price reversal. The inventor of GMMA is Daryl Guppy, an Australian trader and technical analyst who developed this technical analysis tool in the late 1980s and early 1990s. GMMA is based on multiple moving averages (MA), including short-term and long-term moving averages (EMA). The short-term MA group consists of 6 MAs, and the long-term MA group also consists of 6 MAs. These MAs are grouped by color to make them easy to identify.
The basic principle of GMMA is that when prices are in an uptrend, the short-term MA group will be above the long-term MA group, and when prices are in a downtrend, the short-term MA group will be below the long-term MA group. The cross of the short-term MA group and the long-term MA group can help traders determine the direction and strength of the price trend. When the short-term MA group crosses and rises, traders can choose to enter the market, and when the short-term MA group crosses and falls, they can choose to exit the market. In addition, GMMA can also help traders identify signals of price reversal. When prices are in an uptrend, if the short-term MA group starts to cross down, this may be a signal of price reversal. Conversely, when prices are in a downtrend, if the short-term MA group starts to cross up, it may be a signal of price reversal.
The advantages of GMMA are that it can help traders identify price trends and signals of price reversal, thereby determining entry and exit points. In addition, the way GMMA is plotted makes the difference between the short-term and long-term MA groups more obvious, making it easy to identify. However, GMMA also has some disadvantages. For example, it can only provide limited information and cannot predict future price trends. In addition, GMMA needs to be combined with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for trading decisions.
Overall, Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a powerful technical analysis tool that can help traders identify price trends, determine entry and exit points, and identify signals of price reversal. If traders can use GMMA correctly and combine it with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis, they can achieve better trading results.
Lyapunov Hodrick-Prescott Oscillator w/ DSL [Loxx]Lyapunov Hodrick-Prescott Oscillator w/ DSL is a Hodrick-Prescott Channel Filter that is modified using the Lyapunov stability algorithm to turn the filter into an oscillator. Signals are created using Discontinued Signal Lines.
What is the Lyapunov Stability?
As soon as scientists realized that the evolution of physical systems can be described in terms of mathematical equations, the stability of the various dynamical regimes was recognized as a matter of primary importance. The interest for this question was not only motivated by general curiosity, but also by the need to know, in the XIX century, to what extent the behavior of suitable mechanical devices remains unchanged, once their configuration has been perturbed. As a result, illustrious scientists such as Lagrange, Poisson, Maxwell and others deeply thought about ways of quantifying the stability both in general and specific contexts. The first exact definition of stability was given by the Russian mathematician Aleksandr Lyapunov who addressed the problem in his PhD Thesis in 1892, where he introduced two methods, the first of which is based on the linearization of the equations of motion and has originated what has later been termed Lyapunov exponents (LE). (Lyapunov 1992)
The interest in it suddenly skyrocketed during the Cold War period when the so-called "Second Method of Lyapunov" (see below) was found to be applicable to the stability of aerospace guidance systems which typically contain strong nonlinearities not treatable by other methods. A large number of publications appeared then and since in the control and systems literature. More recently the concept of the Lyapunov exponent (related to Lyapunov's First Method of discussing stability) has received wide interest in connection with chaos theory . Lyapunov stability methods have also been applied to finding equilibrium solutions in traffic assignment problems.
In practice, Lyapunov exponents can be computed by exploiting the natural tendency of an n-dimensional volume to align along the n most expanding subspace. From the expansion rate of an n-dimensional volume, one obtains the sum of the n largest Lyapunov exponents. Altogether, the procedure requires evolving n linearly independent perturbations and one is faced with the problem that all vectors tend to align along the same direction. However, as shown in the late '70s, this numerical instability can be counterbalanced by orthonormalizing the vectors with the help of the Gram-Schmidt procedure (Benettin et al. 1980, Shimada and Nagashima 1979) (or, equivalently with a QR decomposition). As a result, the LE λi, naturally ordered from the largest to the most negative one, can be computed: they are altogether referred to as the Lyapunov spectrum.
The Lyapunov exponent "λ" , is useful for distinguishing among the various types of orbits. It works for discrete as well as continuous systems.
λ < 0
The orbit attracts to a stable fixed point or stable periodic orbit. Negative Lyapunov exponents are characteristic of dissipative or non-conservative systems (the damped harmonic oscillator for instance). Such systems exhibit asymptotic stability; the more negative the exponent, the greater the stability. Superstable fixed points and superstable periodic points have a Lyapunov exponent of λ = −∞. This is something akin to a critically damped oscillator in that the system heads towards its equilibrium point as quickly as possible.
λ = 0
The orbit is a neutral fixed point (or an eventually fixed point). A Lyapunov exponent of zero indicates that the system is in some sort of steady state mode. A physical system with this exponent is conservative. Such systems exhibit Lyapunov stability. Take the case of two identical simple harmonic oscillators with different amplitudes. Because the frequency is independent of the amplitude, a phase portrait of the two oscillators would be a pair of concentric circles. The orbits in this situation would maintain a constant separation, like two flecks of dust fixed in place on a rotating record.
λ > 0
The orbit is unstable and chaotic. Nearby points, no matter how close, will diverge to any arbitrary separation. All neighborhoods in the phase space will eventually be visited. These points are said to be unstable. For a discrete system, the orbits will look like snow on a television set. This does not preclude any organization as a pattern may emerge. Thus the snow may be a bit lumpy. For a continuous system, the phase space would be a tangled sea of wavy lines like a pot of spaghetti. A physical example can be found in Brownian motion. Although the system is deterministic, there is no order to the orbit that ensues.
For our purposes here, we transform the HP by applying Lyapunov Stability as follows:
output = math.log(math.abs(HP / HP ))
You can read more about Lyapunov Stability here: Measuring Chaos
What is. the Hodrick-Prescott Filter?
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter refers to a data-smoothing technique. The HP filter is commonly applied during analysis to remove short-term fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Removal of these short-term fluctuations reveals long-term trends.
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a tool commonly used in macroeconomics. It is named after economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott who first popularized this filter in economics in the 1990s. Hodrick was an economist who specialized in international finance. Prescott won the Nobel Memorial Prize, sharing it with another economist for their research in macroeconomics.
This filter determines the long-term trend of a time series by discounting the importance of short-term price fluctuations. In practice, the filter is used to smooth and detrend the Conference Board's Help Wanted Index (HWI) so it can be benchmarked against the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) JOLTS, an economic data series that may more accurately measure job vacancies in the U.S.
The HP filter is one of the most widely used tools in macroeconomic analysis. It tends to have favorable results if the noise is distributed normally, and when the analysis being conducted is historical.
What are DSL Discontinued Signal Line?
A lot of indicators are using signal lines in order to determine the trend (or some desired state of the indicator) easier. The idea of the signal line is easy : comparing the value to it's smoothed (slightly lagging) state, the idea of current momentum/state is made.
Discontinued signal line is inheriting that simple signal line idea and it is extending it : instead of having one signal line, more lines depending on the current value of the indicator.
"Signal" line is calculated the following way :
When a certain level is crossed into the desired direction, the EMA of that value is calculated for the desired signal line
When that level is crossed into the opposite direction, the previous "signal" line value is simply "inherited" and it becomes a kind of a level
This way it becomes a combination of signal lines and levels that are trying to combine both the good from both methods.
In simple terms, DSL uses the concept of a signal line and betters it by inheriting the previous signal line's value & makes it a level.
Included:
Bar coloring
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Drawdown RangeHello death eaters, presenting a unique script which can be used for fundamental analysis or mean reversion based trades.
Process of deriving this table is as below:
Find out ATH for given day
Calculate the drawdown from ATH for the day and drawdown percentage
Based on the drawdown percentage, increment the count of basket which is based on input iNumber of ranges . For example, if number of ranges is 5, then there will be 5 baskets. First basket will fit drawdown percentage 0-20% and each subsequent ones will accommodate next 20% range.
Repeat the process from start to last bar. Once done, table will plot how much percentage of days belong to which basket.
For example, from the below chart of NASDAQ:AAPL
We can deduce following,
Historically stock has traded within 1% drawdown from ATH for 6.59% of time. This is the max amount of time stock has stayed in specific range of drawdown from ATH.
Stock has traded at the drawdown range of 82-83% from ATH for 0.17% of time. This is the least amount of time the stock has stayed in specific range of drawdown from ATH.
At present, stock is trading 2-3% below ATH and this has happened for about 2.46% of total days in trade
Maximum drawdown the stock has suffered is 83%
Lets take another example of NASDAQ:TSLA
Stock is trading at 21-22% below ATH. But, historically the max drawdown range where stock has traded is within 0-1%. Now, if we make this range to show 20 divisions instead of 100, it will look something like this:
Table suggests that stock is trading about 20-25% below ATH - which is right. But, table also suggests that stock has spent most number of days within this drawdown range when we divide it by 20 baskets instad of 100. I would probably wait for price to break out of this range before going long or short. At present, it seems a stage ranging stage. I might think about selling PUTs or covered CALLs outside this range.
Similarly, if you look at AMEX:SPY , 36% of the time, price has stayed within 5% from ATH - makes it a compelling bull case!!
NYSE:BABA is trading at 50-55% below ATH - which is the most it has retraced so far. In general, it is used to be within 15-20% from ATH
NOW, Bit of explanation on input options.
Number of Ranges : Says how many baskets the drawdown map needs to be divided into.
Reference : You can take ATH as reference or chose a time window between which the highest need to be considered for drawdown. This can be useful for megacaps which has gone beyond initial phase of uncertainity. There is no point looking at 80% drawdown AAPL had during 1990s. More approriate to look at it post 2000s where it started making higher impact and growth.
Cumulative Percentage : When this is unchecked, percentage division shows 0-nth percentage instad of percentage ranges. For example this is how it looks on SPY:
We can see that SPY has remained within 6% from ATH for more than 50% of the time.
Hope this is helpful. Happy trading :)
PS: this can be used in conjunction with Drawdown-Price-vs-Fundamentals to pick value stocks at discounted price while also keeping an eye on range tendencies of it.
Thanks to @mattX5 for the ideas and discussion today :)
Gold and Bitcoin: The Evolution of Value!The Eternal Luster of Gold
In the dawn of time, when the earth was young and rivers whispered secrets to the stones, a wanderer named Elara found a gleam in the silt of a sun-kissed stream. It was pure gold, radiant like a captured star fallen from the heavens. She held it in her palm, feeling its warmth pulse like a heartbeat, and in that moment, humanity’s soul awakened to the allure of eternity.
As seasons turned to centuries, gold wove itself into the story of empires. In ancient Egypt, pharaohs crowned themselves with its glow, believing it to be the flesh of gods. It built pyramids that reached for the sky and tombs that guarded kings forever. Across the sands in Mesopotamia, merchants traded it for spices and silks, its weight a promise of power and trust.
Translation moment: Gold became the first universal symbol of value. People trusted it more than words or promises because it did not rust, fade, or vanish.
The Greeks saw in gold not only wealth but wisdom, the symbol of the sun’s eternal fire. Alexander the Great carried it across the continent, forging an empire of golden threads. Rome rose on its back, minting coins whose clink echoed through history.
Through the ages, gold endured the rush of California’s dreamers, the halls of Versailles, and the quiet vaults of modern fortunes. It has been both a curse and a blessing, the fuel of wars and the gift of love, whispering of beauty’s fragility and the human desire for something that lasts beyond the grave. In its shine, we see ourselves fragile yet forever chasing light.
The Digital Dawn of Bitcoin
Centuries later, under the glow of computer screens, a visionary named Satoshi dreamed of a new gold born not from the earth but from the ether of ideas. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 amid a world weary of banks and broken trust.
Like gold’s ancient gleam, Bitcoin was mined not with picks but with puzzles solved by machines. It promised freedom, a currency without kings, flowing from person to person, unbound by borders or empires.
Translation moment: Bitcoin works like digital gold. Instead of digging the ground, miners use computers to solve problems and unlock new coins. No one controls it, and that is what makes it powerful.
Through doubt and frenzy, it rose as a beacon for those seeking sovereignty in a digital world. Its volatility became its soul, a reminder that true value is built on belief. Bitcoin speaks to ingenuity and rebellion, a star of code guiding us toward a future where wealth is weightless yet profoundly honest.
Gold’s Cycles: Echoes of War and Crisis
In the early 20th century, gold was held under fixed prices until the Great Depression of 1929 shattered these illusions. The 1934 dollar devaluation lifted it from 20.67 to 35, restoring faith amid despair. When World War II erupted in 1939, gold’s role as a refuge was muted by controls, yet it quietly held its place as the world’s silent guardian.
The 1970s awakened its wild spirit. The Nixon Shock of 1971 freed gold from 35, sparking a bull run during the 1973 Oil Crisis. The 1979 Iranian Revolution led to a 1980 peak of 850, a leap of more than 2,000 percent, as investors sought safety from the chaos.
Translation moment: When fear rises, people rush to gold. Every major war or economic crisis has sent gold upward because it feels safe when paper money loses trust.
The 1987 stock crash caused brief dips, but the 1990 Gulf War reignited its glow. Around 2000, after the Dot-com Bust, gold found new life, climbing from $ 270 to over $1,900 during the 2008 Financial Crisis. It dipped to 1050 in 2015, then surged again past 2000 during the 2020 pandemic.
The 2022 Ukraine War added another chapter with prices climbing above 2700 by 2025. Across a century of crises, gold has risen whenever fear tested humanity’s resolve, teaching patience and fortitude through its quiet endurance.
Bitcoin’s Cycles: Echoes of Innovation and Crisis
Born from the ashes of the 2008 Financial Crisis, Bitcoin began its story at mere cents. It traded below $1 until 2011, when it reached $30 before crashing by 90 percent following the MTGOX collapse.
In 2013, it soared to 1242 only to fall again to 200 in 2015 as regulations tightened. The 2017 bull run lifted it to nearly 20000 before another long winter brought it to 3200 in 2018. Each fall taught resilience, each rise renewed belief.
During the 2020 pandemic, it fell below 5000 before rallying to 69000 in 2021. The Ukraine War and the FTX collapse of 2022 brought it down to 16000, but also proved its role in humanitarian aid. By 2024, the halving and ETF approvals helped it break 100000, marking Bitcoin’s rise as digital gold.
Translation moment: Bitcoin’s rhythm follows four-year halving cycles when mining rewards are cut in half. This keeps supply limited, which often triggers new bull runs as demand returns.
Every four years, it's halving cycles 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, fueling new waves of adoption and correction. Bitcoin grows strongest in times of uncertainty, echoing humanity’s drive to evolve beyond limits.
The Harmony of Gold and Bitcoin Modern Parallels
In today’s markets, gold’s ancient glow meets Bitcoin’s electric pulse. As of October 17, 2025, their correlation stands near 0.85, close to its historic high of 0.9. Both rise as guardians against inflation and the erosion of trust in the dollar.
Gold trades near 4310 per ounce a record high while Bitcoin hovers around 104700 showing brief fractures in their unity. Gold offers the comfort of touch while Bitcoin provides the thrill of code. Together, they reflect fear and hope, the twin emotions that drive every market.
Translation moment: A correlation of 0.85 means they often move in the same direction. When fear or inflation rises, both gold and Bitcoin tend to rise in tandem.
Analysts warn of bubbles in stocks, gold, and crypto, yet optimism remains for Bitcoin’s growth through 2026, while gold holds its defensive strength.
Gold carries risks of storage cost and theft, but steadiness in chaos. Bitcoin carries volatility and regulatory challenges, but it also offers unmatched innovation and reach. One is the anchor, the other the dream, and both reward those who hold conviction through uncertainty.
Epilogue: The Timeless Balance
Gold and Bitcoin form a bridge between the ancient and the future. Gold, the earth’s eternal treasure, stands as a symbol of stability and truth. Bitcoin, the digital heir, shines with the spark of innovation and freedom.
Experts view gold as the ultimate inflation hedge, forged in fire and tested over centuries. They see Bitcoin as its digital counterpart, scarce by code and limitless in reach.
Gold’s weight grounds us in reality while Bitcoin’s light expands our imagination. In 2025, as gold surpasses $4,346 and Bitcoin hovers near $105,000, the wise investor sees not rivals but reflections.
Translation moment: Gold reminds us to protect what we have. Bitcoin reminds us to dream of what could be. Together, they balance caution and courage, the two forces every generation must master.
One whispers of legacy, the other of evolution, yet together they tell humanity’s oldest story, our unending quest to preserve value against time and to chase the light that never fades.
🙏 I ask (Allah) for guidance and success. 🤲
MC Geopolitical Tension Events📌 Script Title: Geopolitical Tension Events
📖 Description:
This script highlights key geopolitical and military tension events from 1914 to 2024 that have historically impacted global markets.
It automatically plots vertical dashed lines and labels on the chart at the time of each major event. This allows traders and analysts to visually assess how markets have responded to global crises, wars, and significant political instability over time.
🧠 Use Cases:
Historical backtesting: Understand how market responded to past geopolitical shocks.
Contextual analysis: Add macro context to technical setups.
🗓️ List of Geopolitical Tension Events in the Script
Date Event Title Description
1914-07-28 WWI Begins Outbreak of World War I following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
1929-10-24 Wall Street Crash Black Thursday, the start of the 1929 stock market crash.
1939-09-01 WWII Begins Germany invades Poland, starting World War II.
1941-12-07 Pearl Harbor Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; U.S. enters WWII.
1945-08-06 Hiroshima Bombing First atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S.
1950-06-25 Korean War Begins North Korea invades South Korea.
1962-10-16 Cuban Missile Crisis 13-day standoff between the U.S. and USSR over missiles in Cuba.
1973-10-06 Yom Kippur War Egypt and Syria launch surprise attack on Israel.
1979-11-04 Iran Hostage Crisis U.S. Embassy in Tehran seized; 52 hostages taken.
1990-08-02 Gulf War Begins Iraq invades Kuwait, triggering U.S. intervention.
2001-09-11 9/11 Attacks Coordinated terrorist attacks on the U.S.
2003-03-20 Iraq War Begins U.S.-led invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein.
2008-09-15 Lehman Collapse Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers; peak of global financial crisis.
2014-03-01 Crimea Crisis Russia annexes Crimea from Ukraine.
2020-01-03 Soleimani Strike U.S. drone strike kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
2022-02-24 Ukraine Invasion Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2023-10-07 Hamas-Israel War Hamas launches attack on Israel, sparking war in Gaza.
2024-01-12 Red Sea Crisis Houthis attack ships in Red Sea, prompting Western naval response.
Economic Crises by @zeusbottradingEconomic Crises Indicator by @zeusbottrading
Description and Use Case
Overview
The Economic Crises Highlight Indicator is designed to visually mark major economic crises on a TradingView chart by shading these periods in red. It provides a historical context for financial analysis by indicating when major recessions occurred, helping traders and analysts assess the performance of assets before, during, and after these crises.
What This Indicator Shows
This indicator highlights the following major economic crises (from 1953 to 2020), which significantly impacted global markets:
• 1953 Korean War Recession
• 1957 Monetary Tightening Recession
• 1960 Investment Decline Recession
• 1969 Employment Crisis
• 1973 Oil Crisis
• 1980 Inflation Crisis
• 1981 Fed Monetary Policy Recession
• 1990 Oil Crisis and Gulf War Recession
• 2001 Dot-Com Bubble Crash
• 2008 Global Financial Crisis (Great Recession)
• 2020 COVID-19 Recession
Each of these periods is shaded in red with 80% transparency, allowing you to clearly see the impact of economic downturns on various financial assets.
How This Indicator is Useful
This indicator is particularly valuable for:
✅ Comparative Performance Analysis – It allows traders and investors to compare how different assets (e.g., Gold, Silver, S&P 500, Bitcoin) performed before, during, and after major economic crises.
✅ Identifying Market Trends – Helps recognize recurring patterns in asset price movements during times of financial distress.
✅ Risk Management & Strategy Development – Understanding how markets reacted in the past can assist in making better-informed investment decisions for future downturns.
✅ Gold, Silver & Bitcoin as Safe Havens – Comparing precious metals and cryptocurrencies against traditional stocks (e.g., SPY) to analyze their performance as hedges during economic turmoil.
How to Use It in Your Analysis
By overlaying this indicator on your Gold, Silver, SPY, and Bitcoin chart (for example), you can quickly spot historical market reactions and use that insight to predict possible behaviors in future downturns.
⸻
How to Apply This in TradingView?
1. Click on Use on chart under the image.
2. Overlay it with Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), SPY ( AMEX:SPY ), and Bitcoin ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) for comparative analysis.
⸻
Conclusion
This indicator serves as a powerful historical reference for traders analyzing asset performance during economic downturns. By studying past crises, you can develop a data-driven investment strategy and improve your market insights. 🚀📈
Let me know if you need any modifications or enhancements!
cashdata by farashahThis indicator is designed to generate wave charts following the NeoWave method.
NeoWave, developed by Glenn Neely in 1990, offers a scientific and objective approach to wave analysis.
A Cash Data is essential for accurate analysis, requiring highs and lows to be plotted in the exact order they occurred—a process that can be complex and time-consuming.
The indicator automates this process by identifying highs and lows for any symbol and timeframe, plotting them in real-time.
For instance, on a monthly timeframe, it finds yearly highs and lows and arranges them sequentially, forming a "Yearly Wave Chart" for NeoWave analysis.
•Generates Wave Charts for multiple timeframes(yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, minutely).
• Provides real-time auto-updating Wave Charts.
• Supports plotting based on calendar time, bar count, or equal distances.
• Compatible with all account types.
Payday Anomaly StrategyThe "Payday Effect" refers to a predictable anomaly in financial markets where stock returns exhibit significant fluctuations around specific pay periods. Typically, these are associated with the beginning, middle, or end of the month when many investors receive wages and salaries. This influx of funds, often directed automatically into retirement accounts or investment portfolios (such as 401(k) plans in the United States), temporarily increases the demand for equities. This phenomenon has been linked to a cycle where stock prices rise disproportionately on and around payday periods due to increased buy-side liquidity.
Academic research on the payday effect suggests that this pattern is tied to systematic cash flows into financial markets, primarily driven by employee retirement and savings plans. The regularity of these cash infusions creates a calendar-based pattern that can be exploited in trading strategies. Studies show that returns on days around typical payroll dates tend to be above average, and this pattern remains observable across various time periods and regions.
The rationale behind the payday effect is rooted in the behavioral tendencies of investors, specifically the automatic reinvestment mechanisms used in retirement funds, which align with monthly or semi-monthly salary payments. This regular injection of funds can cause market microstructure effects where stock prices temporarily increase, only to stabilize or reverse after the funds have been invested. Consequently, the payday effect provides traders with a potentially profitable opportunity by predicting these inflows.
Scientific Bibliography on the Payday Effect
Ma, A., & Pratt, W. R. (2017). Payday Anomaly: The Market Impact of Semi-Monthly Pay Periods. Social Science Research Network (SSRN).
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the payday effect, exploring how returns tend to peak around payroll periods due to semi-monthly cash flows. The paper discusses how systematic inflows impact returns, leading to predictable stock performance patterns on specific days of the month.
Lakonishok, J., & Smidt, S. (1988). Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective. The Review of Financial Studies, 1(4), 403-425.
This foundational study explores calendar anomalies, including the payday effect. By examining data over nearly a century, the authors establish a framework for understanding seasonal and monthly patterns in stock returns, which provides historical support for the payday effect.
Owen, S., & Rabinovitch, R. (1983). On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: A Step Beyond the Random Walk Hypothesis. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 10(3), 379-396.
This paper investigates predictability in stock returns beyond random fluctuations. It considers payday effects among various calendar anomalies, arguing that certain dates yield predictable returns due to regular cash inflows.
Loughran, T., & Schultz, P. (2005). Liquidity: Urban versus Rural Firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(2), 341-374.
While primarily focused on liquidity, this study provides insight into how cash flows, such as those from semi-monthly paychecks, influence liquidity levels and consequently impact stock prices around predictable pay dates.
Ariel, R. A. (1990). High Stock Returns Before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes. The Journal of Finance, 45(5), 1611-1626.
Ariel’s work highlights stock return patterns tied to certain dates, including paydays. Although the study focuses on pre-holiday returns, it suggests broader implications of predictable investment timing, reinforcing the calendar-based effects seen with payday anomalies.
Summary
Research on the payday effect highlights a repeating pattern in stock market returns driven by scheduled payroll investments. This cyclical increase in stock demand aligns with behavioral finance insights and market microstructure theories, offering a valuable basis for trading strategies focused on the beginning, middle, and end of each month.
Performance Summary and Shading (Offset Version)Modified "Recession and Crisis Shading" Indicator by @haribotagada (Original Link: )
The updated indicator accepts a days offset (positive or negative) to calculate performance between the offset date and the input date.
Potential uses include identifying performance one week after company earnings or an FOMC meeting.
This feature simplifies input by enabling standardized offset dates, while still allowing flexibility to adjust ranges by overriding inputs as needed.
Summary of added features and indicator notes:
Inputs both positive and negative offset.
By default, the script calculates performance from the close of the input date to the close of the date at (input date + offset) for positive offsets, and from the close of (input date - offset) to the close of the input date for negative offsets. For example, with an input date of November 1, 2024, an offset of 7 calculates performance from the close on November 1 to the close on November 8, while an offset of -7 calculates from the close on October 25 to the close on November 1.
Allows user to perform the calculation using the open price on the input date instead of close price
The input format has been modified to allow overrides for the default duration, while retaining the original capabilities of the indicator.
The calculation shows both the average change and the average annualized change. For bar-wise calculations, annualization assumes 252 trading days per year. For date-wise calculations, it assumes 365 days for annualization.
Carries over all previous inputs to retain functionality of the previous script. Changes a few small settings:
Calculates start to end date performance by default instead of peak to trough performance.
Updates visuals of label text to make it easier to read and less transparent.
Changed stat box color scheme to make the text easier to read
Updated default input data to new format of input with offsets
Changed default duration statistic to number of days instead of number of bars with an option to select number of bars.
Potential Features to Add:
Import dataset from CSV files or by plugging into TradingView calendar
Example Input Datasets:
Recessions:
2020-02-01,COVID-19,59
2007-12-01,Subprime mortgages,547
2001-03-01,Dot-com,243
1990-07-01,Oil shock,243
1981-07-01,US unemployment,788
1980-01-01,Volker,182
1973-11-01,OPEC,485
Japan Revolving Door Elections
2006-09-26, Shinzo Abe
2007-09-26, Yasuo Fukuda
2008-09-24, Taro Aso
2009-09-16, Yukio Hatoyama
2010-07-08, Naoto Kan
2011-09-02, Yoshihiko Noda
Hope you find the modified indicator useful and let me know if you would like any features to be added!
Larry Williams Valuation Index [tradeviZion]Larry Williams Valuation Index
Welcome to the Larry Williams Valuation Index by tradeviZion! This script is an interpretation of Larry Williams' famous WillVal (Valuation) Index, originally developed in 1990 to help traders determine whether a market or asset is overvalued or undervalued. We've extended it to support multiple securities and offer alerts for different valuation levels, helping you make more informed trading decisions.
What is the Valuation Index?
The Valuation Index measures how a security's current price compares to its historical price action. It helps identify whether the security is overvalued (priced too high), undervalued (priced too low), or in a normal range.
This version supports multiple securities and uses valuation parameters to help you assess the relative valuation of three securities simultaneously. It can help you determine the best times to enter (buy) or exit (sell) the market.
Key Features
Multi-Security Analysis: Analyze up to three securities simultaneously to get a broader view of market conditions.
Valuation Levels: Automatically calculate overvaluation and undervaluation levels or set manual levels for consistent analysis.
Custom Alerts: Create custom alerts when securities move between overvalued, undervalued, or normal ranges.
Customizable Table Display: Display a table with valuation values and their status on the chart.
Getting Started
Step 1: Adding the Script to Your Chart
First, add the Larry Williams Valuation Index script to your chart on TradingView. The script is designed to work with any timeframe, but for best results, use weekly or daily timeframes for a longer-term perspective.
Step 2: Configuring Securities
The script allows you to analyze up to three different securities :
Security 1 (Default: DXY)
Security 2 (Default: GC1!)
Security 3 (Default: ZB1!)
You can enable or disable each security individually.
Custom Timeframe Option: You have the option to select a custom timeframe for analysis. This allows you to see whether the security is overvalued or undervalued in lower or higher timeframes. Note that this feature is experimental and has not been extensively tested. Larry Williams originally used the weekly timeframe to determine if a stock was overvalued or undervalued. By default, the indicator compares the current price with the security based on the selected timeframe, except if you choose to use a custom timeframe.
Pro Tip : New users can start with the default securities to understand the concept before using other assets.
Step 3: Valuation Index Settings
Short EMA Length : This is the short-term average used for calculations. A lower value makes it more responsive to recent price changes.
Long EMA Length : This is the long-term average, used to smooth the valuation over time.
Valuation Length (Default: 156) : Represents approximately three years of daily bars (as recommended by Larry Williams).
How is the Valuation Index Calculated?
The valuation calculation is done using a method called WVI (WillVal Index), which compares the current price of a security to the price of another correlated security. Here’s a step-by-step explanation:
1. Data Collection: The script takes the closing price of the security you are analyzing and the closing price of the correlated security.
2. Ratio Calculation : The ratio of the two prices is calculated:
Price Ratio = (Price of your security) / (Price of correlated security) * 100.
This ratio helps determine how expensive or cheap your security is compared to the correlated one.
3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) : The price ratio is used to calculate short-term and long-term EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). EMAs are used to create smooth lines that represent the average price of a security over a specific period of time, with more weight given to recent data. By calculating both short-term and long-term EMAs, we can identify the trend direction and how the security is performing compared to its historical averages.
4. Valuation Index Calculation:
The Valuation Index is calculated as the difference between the short-term EMA and the long-term EMA. This difference helps to determine if the security is currently overvalued or undervalued:
A positive value indicates that the price is above its longer-term trend, suggesting potential overvaluation.
A negative value indicates that the price is below its longer-term trend, suggesting potential undervaluation.
5. Normalization:
To make the valuation easier to interpret, the calculated valuation index is then normalized using the highest and lowest values over the selected valuation length (e.g., 156 bars).
This normalization process converts the index into a percentage between 0 and 100, where higher values indicate overvaluation and lower values indicate undervaluation.
Step 4: Understanding Valuation Levels
The valuation levels indicate whether a security is currently undervalued, overvalued, or in a normal range.
Manual Levels : You can manually set the overvaluation and undervaluation thresholds (default is 85 for overvalued and 15 for undervalued).
Auto Levels : The script can automatically calculate these levels based on recent price action, allowing you to adapt to changing market conditions.
Auto Levels Calculation Explained:
The Auto Levels are calculated by taking the average of the valuation indices for all three securities (e.g., index1, index2, and index3).
The script then looks at the highest and lowest values of this average over a selected number of recent bars (e.g., 50 bars).
The overvaluation level is determined by taking the highest value and multiplying it by a multiplier (e.g., 5). Similarly, the undervaluation level is calculated using the lowest value and the multiplier.
These dynamic levels adjust according to recent price action, providing an adaptive approach to identifying overvalued and undervalued conditions.
Step 5: How to Use the Script to Make Trading Decisions
For new users, here's a step-by-step trading strategy you can use with the Valuation Index:
1. Identify Undervalued Opportunities
When two or more securities are in the undervalued range (below 15 for manual or below automatically calculated undervalue levels), wait for at least two of these securities to turn from undervalued to normal .
This transition indicates a potential buy opportunity .
2. Buying Signal
When at least two securities transition from undervalued to normal, you can consider buying the asset.
This indicates that the market may be recovering from undervalued conditions and could be moving into a growth phase.
3. Selling Signal
Exit when the price high closes below the EMA 21 (21-day exponential moving average).
Alternatively, if the valuation index reaches overvalued levels (above 85 manually or auto-calculated), wait for it to drop back to normal . This can be another point to exit the trade .
You can also use any other sell condition based on your r isk management strategy .
Alerts for Valuation Levels
The script includes alerts to notify you of changing market conditions:
To activate these alerts, follow these steps, referring to the provided screenshot with detailed steps:
1. Enable Alerts : Click on the settings gear icon on the script title in your chart. In the settings menu, scroll to the section labeled Alerts Settings .
Enable Alerts by checking the Enable Alerts box.
Set the Required Securities for Alert (default is 2 securities).
Choose the Alert Frequency : Selecting Once Per Bar Close will trigger alerts only at the close of each bar, ensuring you receive confirmed signals rather than potentially noisy intermediate signals.
2. Select Alert Type : Choose the type of alert you want to activate, such as Alert on Overvalued, Alert on Undervalued, Alert on Over to Normal , or Alert on Under to Normal .
3. Save Settings : Click OK to save your alert settings.
4. Add Alert on Indicator : Click the "..." (More button) next to the indicator name on the chart and select " Add alert on tradeviZion - WillVal ".
5. Create Alert : In the Create Alert window:
Set Condition to tradeviZion - WillVal .
Ensure Any alert() function call is selected.
Set the Alert Name and select your Expiration preferences.
6. Set Notification Preferences : Go to the Notifications tab and select how you want to receive notifications, such as via app notification, toast notification, email , or sound alert . Adjust these preferences to best suit your needs.
7. Click Create : Finally, click Create to activate the alert.
These alerts will help you stay informed about key market conditions and take action accordingly, ensuring you do not miss critical trading opportunities.
Understanding the Table Display
The script includes an interactive table on the chart to show the valuation status of each security:
Security : The name of the security being analyzed.
Value : The current valuation index value.
Status : Indicates whether the security is overvalued, undervalued , or in a normal range.
Color: Displays a color code for easy identification of status:
Red for overvalued.
Green for undervalued.
Other colors represent normal valuation levels.
Empowering Messages : Motivational messages are displayed to encourage disciplined trading. These messages will change periodically, helping keep a positive trading mindset.
Acknowledgment
This tool builds upon the foundational work of Larry Williams, who developed the WillVal (Valuation) Index concept. It also incorporates enhancements to extend multi-security analysis, valuation normalization, and advanced alerting features, providing a more versatile and powerful indicator. The Larry Williams Valuation Index [ tradeviZion ] helps traders make informed decisions by assessing overvalued and undervalued conditions for multiple securities simultaneously.
Note : Always practice proper risk management and thoroughly test the indicator to ensure it aligns with your trading strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trade smarter with TradeVizion—unlock your trading potential today!
Recessions & crises shading (custom dates & stats)Shades your chart background to flag events such as crises or recessions, in similar fashion to what you see on FRED charts. The advantage of this indicator over others is that you can quickly input custom event dates as text in the menu to analyse their impact for your specific symbol. The script automatically labels, calculates and displays the peak to through percentage corrections on your current chart.
By default the indicator is configured to show the last 6 US recessions. If you have custom events which will benefit others, just paste the input string in the comments below so one can simply copy/paste in their indicator.
Example event input (No spaces allowed except for the label name. Enter dates as YYYY-MM-DD.)
2020-02-01,2020-03-31,COVID-19
2007-12-01,2009-05-31,Subprime mortgages
2001-03-01,2001-10-30,Dot-com bubble
1990-07-01,1991-03-01,Oil shock
1981-07-01,1982-11-01,US unemployment
1980-01-01,1980-07-01,Volker
1973-11-01,1975-03-01,OPEC
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) [Loxx]Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) demonstrates how to calculate the Cost of Equity for an underlying asset using Pine Script. This script will only work on the monthly timeframe. While you can change the default inputs, you should study what CAPM is and how this works before doing so. This indicator pulls various types of data from SPY from various timeframes to calculate risk-free rates, market premiums, and log returns. Alpha and Beta are computed using the regression between underlying asset and SPY. This indicator only calculates on the most recent data. If you wish to change this, you'll have to save the script and make adjustments. A few examples where CAPM is used:
Used as the mu factor Geometric Brownian Motion models for options pricing and forecasting price ranges and decay
Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Asset pricing
Efficient frontier
Risk and diversification
Security market line
Discounted Cashflow Analysis
Investment bankers use CAPM to value deals
Account firms use CAPM to verify asset prices and assumptions
Real estate firms use variations of CAPM to value properties
... and more
Details of the calculations used here
Rm is calculated using yearly simple returns data from SPY, typically this is just hard coded as 10%.
Rf is pulled from US 10 year bond yields
Beta and Alpha are pulled form monthly returns data of the asset and SPY
In the past, typically this data is purchased from investments banks whose research arms produce values for beta, alpha, risk free rate, and risk premiums. In 2022 ,you can find free estimates for each parameter but these values might not reflect the most current data or research.
History
The CAPM was introduced by Jack Treynor (1961, 1962), William F. Sharpe (1964), John Lintner (1965) and Jan Mossin (1966) independently, building on the earlier work of Harry Markowitz on diversification and modern portfolio theory. Sharpe, Markowitz and Merton Miller jointly received the 1990 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this contribution to the field of financial economics. Fischer Black (1972) developed another version of CAPM, called Black CAPM or zero-beta CAPM, that does not assume the existence of a riskless asset. This version was more robust against empirical testing and was influential in the widespread adoption of the CAPM.
Usage
The CAPM is used to calculate the amount of return that investors need to realize to compensate for a particular level of risk. It subtracts the risk-free rate from the expected rate and weighs it with a factor – beta – to get the risk premium. It then adds the risk premium to the risk-free rate of return to get the rate of return an investor expects as compensation for the risk. The CAPM formula is expressed as follows:
r = Rf + beta (Rm – Rf) + Alpha
Therefore,
Alpha = R – Rf – beta (Rm-Rf)
Where:
R represents the portfolio return
Rf represents the risk-free rate of return
Beta represents the systematic risk of a portfolio
Rm represents the market return, per a benchmark
For example, assuming that the actual return of the fund is 30, the risk-free rate is 8%, beta is 1.1, and the benchmark index return is 20%, alpha is calculated as:
Alpha = (0.30-0.08) – 1.1 (0.20-0.08) = 0.088 or 8.8%
The result shows that the investment in this example outperformed the benchmark index by 8.8%.
The alpha of a portfolio is the excess return it produces compared to a benchmark index. Investors in mutual funds or ETFs often look for a fund with a high alpha in hopes of getting a superior return on investment (ROI).
The alpha ratio is often used along with the beta coefficient, which is a measure of the volatility of an investment. The two ratios are both used in the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) to analyze a portfolio of investments and assess its theoretical performance.
To see CAPM in action in terms of calculate WACC, see here for an example: finbox.com
Further reading
en.wikipedia.org
Forward Start Options [Loxx]A forward start option with time to maturity T starts at-the-money or proportionally in- or out-of-the-money after a known elapsed time t in the future. The strike is set equal to a positive constant a times the asset price S after the known time t. If a is less than unity, the call (put) will start 1 - a percent in-the-money (out-of-the- money); if a is unity, the option will start at-the-money; and if a is larger than unity, the call (put) will start a - 1 percentage out-of-the- money (in-the-money).A forward start option can be priced using the Rubinstein (1990) formula: (via "The Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas")
c = S*e^(b-r)t * (e^(b-r)(T-t) * N(d1)) - alpha * e^-r(T-t) * N(d2))
p = S*e^(b-r)t * (alpha*e^r(T-t) * N(-d2)) - e^-(b-r)(T-t) * N(-d1))
where
d1 = (log(1/alpha) + (b + v^2/2)(T-1))/v*(T-t)^0.5
d2 = d1 - v*(T-t)^0.5
Application
Employee options are often of the forward starting type. Ratchet options (aka cliquet options) consist of a series of forward starting options.
b=r options on non-dividend paying stock
b=r-q options on stock or index paying a dividend yield of q
b=0 options on futures
b=r-rf currency options (where rf is the rate in the second currency)
Inputs
S = Stock price.
a = Alpha
T1 = Time to forward start
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
c = Cost of Carry
v = volatility of the underlying asset price
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
McGinley Dynamic (Improved) - John R. McGinley, Jr.For all the McGinley enthusiasts out there, this is my improved version of the "McGinley Dynamic", originally formulated and publicized in 1990 by John R. McGinley, Jr. Prior to this release, I recently had an encounter with a member request regarding the reliability and stability of the general algorithm. Years ago, I attempted to discover the root of it's inconsistency, but success was not possible until now. Being no stranger to a good old fashioned computational crisis, I revisited it with considerable contemplation.
I discovered a lack of constraints in the formulation that either caused the algorithm to implode to near zero and zero OR it could explosively enlarge to near infinite values during unusual price action volatility conditions, occurring on different time frames. A numeric E-notation in a moving average doesn't mean a stock just shot up in excess of a few quintillion in value from just "10ish" moments ago. Anyone experienced with the usual McGinley Dynamic, has probably encountered this with dynamically dramatic surprises in their chart, destroying it's usability.
Well, I believe I have found an answer to this dilemma of 'susceptibility to miscalculation', to provide what is most likely McGinley's whole hearted intention. It required upgrading the formulation with two constraints applied to it using min/max() functions. Let me explain why below.
When using base numbers with an exponent to the power of four, some miniature numbers smaller than one can numerically collapse to near 0 values, or even 0.0 itself. A denominator of zero will always give any computational device a horribly bad day, not to mention the developer. Let this be an EASY lesson in computational division, I often entertainingly express to others. You have heard the terminology "$#|T happens!🙂" right? In the programming realm, "AnyNumber/0.0 CAN happen!🤪" too, and it happens "A LOT" unexpectedly, even when it's highly improbable. On the other hand, numbers a bit larger than 2 with the power of four can tremendously expand rapidly to the numeric limits of 64-bit processing, generating ginormous spikes on a chart.
The ephemeral presence of one OR both of those potentials now has a combined satisfactory remedy, AND you as TV members now have it, endowed with the ever evolving "Power of Pine". Oh yeah, this one plots from bar_index==0 too. It also has experimental settings tweaks to play with, that may reveal untapped potential of this formulation. This function now has gain of function capabilities, NOT to be confused with viral gain of function enhancements from reckless BSL-4 leaking laboratories that need to be eternally abolished from this planet. Although, I do have hopes this imd() function has the potential to go viral. I believe this improved function may have utility in the future by developers of the TradingView community. You have the source, and use it wisely...
I included an generic ema() plot for a basic comparison, ultimately unveiling some of this algorithm's unique characteristics differing on a variety of time frames. Also another unconstrained function is included to display some the disparities of having no limitations on a divisor in the calculation. I strongly advise against the use of umd() in any published script. There is simply just no reason to even ponder using it. I also included notes in the script to warn against this. It's funny now, but some folks don't always read/understand my advisories... You have been warned!
NOTICE: You have absolute freedom to use this source code any way you see fit within your new Pine projects, and that includes TV themselves. You don't have to ask for my permission to reuse this improved function in your published scripts, simply because I have better things to do than answer requests for the reuse of this simplistic imd() function. Sufficient accreditation regarding this script and compliance with "TV's House Rules" regarding code reuse, is as easy as copying the entire function as is. Fair enough? Good! I have a backlog of "computational crises" to contend with, including another one during the writing of this elaborate description.
When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members, I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. Have a profitable future everyone!
