Quarterly Theory ICT 04 [TradingFinder] SSMT 4Quarter Divergence🔵 Introduction
Sequential SMT Divergence is an advanced price-action-based analytical technique rooted in the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology. Its primary objective is to identify early-stage divergences between correlated assets within precise time structures. This tool not only breaks down market structure but also enables traders to detect engineered liquidity traps before the market reacts.
In simple terms, SMT (Smart Money Technique) occurs when two correlated assets—such as indices (ES and NQ), currency pairs (EURUSD and GBPUSD), or commodities (Gold and Silver)—exhibit different reactions at key price levels (swing highs or lows). This lack of alignment is often a sign of smart money manipulation and signals a lack of confirmation in the ongoing trend—hinting at an imminent reversal or at least a pause in momentum.
In its Sequential form, SMT divergences are examined through a more granular temporal lens—between intraday quarters (Q1 through Q4). When SMT appears at the transition from one quarter to another (e.g., Q1 to Q2 or Q3 to Q4), the signal becomes significantly more powerful, often aligning with a critical phase in the Quarterly Theory—a framework that segments market behavior into four distinct phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Reversal/Continuation.
For instance, a Bullish SMT forms when one asset prints a new low while its correlated counterpart fails to break the corresponding low from the previous quarter. This usually indicates absorption of selling pressure and the beginning of accumulation by smart money. Conversely, a Bearish SMT arises when one asset makes a higher high, but the second asset fails to confirm, signaling distribution or a fake-out before a decline.
However, SMT alone is not enough. To confirm a true Market Structure Break (MSB), the appearance of a Precision Swing Point (PSP) is essential—a specific candlestick formation on a lower timeframe (typically 5 to 15 minutes) that reveals the entry of institutional participants. The combination of SMT and PSP provides a more accurate entry point and better understanding of premium and discount zones.
The Sequential SMT Indicator, introduced in this article, dynamically scans charts for such divergence patterns across multiple sessions. It is applicable to various markets including Forex, crypto, commodities, and indices, and shows particularly strong performance during mid-week sessions (Wednesdays and Thursdays)—when most weekly highs and lows tend to form.
Bullish Sequential SMT :
Bearish Sequential SMT :
🔵 How to Use
The Sequential SMT (SSMT) indicator is designed to detect time and structure-based divergences between two correlated assets. This divergence occurs when both assets print a similar swing (high or low) in the previous quarter (e.g., Q3), but in the current quarter (e.g., Q4), only one asset manages to break that swing level—while the other fails to reach it.
This temporal mismatch is precisely identified by the SSMT indicator and often signals smart money activity, a market phase transition, or even the presence of an engineered liquidity trap. The signal becomes especially powerful when paired with a Precision Swing Point (PSP)—a confirming candle on lower timeframes (5m–15m) that typically indicates a market structure break (MSB) and the entry of smart liquidity.
🟣 Bullish Sequential SMT
In the previous quarter, both assets form a similar swing low.
In the current quarter, one asset (e.g., EURUSD) breaks that low and trades below it.
The other asset (e.g., GBPUSD) fails to reach the same low, preserving the structure.
This time-based divergence reflects declining selling pressure, potential absorption, and often marks the end of a manipulation phase and the start of accumulation. If confirmed by a bullish PSP candle, it offers a strong long opportunity, with stop-losses defined just below the swing low.
🟣 Bearish Sequential SMT
In the previous quarter, both assets form a similar swing high.
In the current quarter, one asset (e.g., NQ) breaks above that high.
The other asset (e.g., ES) fails to reach that high, remaining below it.
This type of divergence signals weakening bullish momentum and the likelihood of distribution or a fake-out before a price drop. When followed by a bearish PSP candle, it sets up a strong shorting opportunity with targets in the discount zone and protective stops placed above the swing high.
🔵 Settings
⚙️ Logical Settings
Quarterly Cycles Type : Select the time segmentation method for SMT analysis.
Available modes include: Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 90 Minute, and Micro.
These define how the indicator divides market time into Q1–Q4 cycles.
Symbol : Choose the secondary asset to compare with the main chart asset (e.g., XAUUSD, US100, GBPUSD).
Pivot Period : Sets the sensitivity of the pivot detection algorithm. A smaller value increases responsiveness to price swings.
Activate Max Pivot Back : When enabled, limits the maximum number of past pivots to be considered for divergence detection.
Max Pivot Back Length : Defines how many past pivots can be used (if the above toggle is active).
Pivot Sync Threshold : The maximum allowed difference (in bars) between pivots of the two assets for them to be compared.
Validity Pivot Length : Defines the time window (in bars) during which a divergence remains valid before it's considered outdated.
🎨 Display Settings
Show Cycle :Toggles the visual display of the current Quarter (Q1 to Q4) based on the selected time segmentation
Show Cycle Label : Shows the name (e.g., "Q2") of each detected Quarter on the chart.
Show Bullish SMT Line : Draws a line connecting the bullish divergence points.
Show Bullish SMT Label : Displays a label on the chart when a bullish divergence is detected.
Bullish Color : Sets the color for bullish SMT markers (label, shape, and line).
Show Bearish SMT Line : Draws a line for bearish divergence.
Show Bearish SMT Label : Displays a label when a bearish SMT divergence is found.
Bearish Color : Sets the color for bearish SMT visual elements.
🔔 Alert Settings
Alert Name : Custom name for the alert messages (used in TradingView’s alert system).
Message Frequency :
All: Every signal triggers an alert.
Once Per Bar: Alerts once per bar regardless of how many signals occur.
Per Bar Close: Only triggers when the bar closes and the signal still exists.
Time Zone Display : Choose the time zone in which alert timestamps are displayed (e.g., UTC).
Bullish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bullish signals.
Bearish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bearish signals
🔵 Conclusion
The Sequential SMT (SSMT) indicator is a powerful and precise tool for identifying structural divergences between correlated assets within a time-based framework. Unlike traditional divergence models that rely solely on sequential pivot comparisons, SSMT leverages Quarterly Theory, in combination with concepts like liquidity sweeps, market structure breaks (MSB) and precision swing points (PSP), to provide a deeper and more actionable view of market dynamics.
By using SSMT, traders gain not only the ability to identify where divergence occurs, but also when it matters most within the market cycle. This empowers them to anticipate major moves or traps before they fully materialize, and position themselves accordingly in high-probability trade zones.
Whether you're trading Forex, crypto, indices, or commodities, the true strength of this indicator is revealed when used in sync with the Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Reversal phases of the market. Integrated with other confluence tools and market models, SSMT can serve as a core component in a professional, rule-based, and highly personalized trading strategy.
ابحث في النصوص البرمجية عن "Cycle"
Jinny Gann ArJinny Gann AR is a comprehensive technical analysis indicator designed to empower traders with the tools to analyze market movements using Gann square of 9 theory. Developed by Magic_xD, this indicator integrates various features inspired by the legendary trader W.D. Gann's methods.
The trading techniques by WD Gann are widely seen as innovative and are still studied and used by traders today. He used angles and various geometric constructions. Gann angles divide time and price into proportionate parts and are often used to predict areas of support and resistance, key tops and bottoms and future price moves. The method is based on the notion that markets rotate from angle to angle and when an angle is broken, price moves towards the next one. Several angles together make up a Gann Fan.
- Jinny Gann AR Might accurately Shows you when and what price might be the end of the Cycle,
-Gives The important pivot points
- This Allows you to Detect Next Level of Resistance/Support And when a Possible Reversal might occur ahead so you can Catch a reversal in time.
- Its Multi Language User interface English - Arabic.
Ability to customize Every thing visually.
Some Features Explained on USOIL Chart :
Gann Square of 9 Levels for USOIL:
Charts Shows and Up Cycle Started 4 May 2023 From bottom of 63.61
Indicating Important Levels and Expected End of 1 Cycle at 99.5 on 25 Sep 2024
Gann Star With Levels And Time Lines :
Vertical Dashed Lines are The time lines
Jinny Gann Grid Based on Shape Type not Static 45 Angle:
Jinny Gann Grid + Levels :
Jinny Gann Fan For Up Cycle:
Jinny Gann Fan Reverse Same Cycle:
Ability To Show Both Up/Reversal Fans on The chart:
The Number of Fann Levels you need on the chart can be customized by changing Shape Type... But Price Will Respect it Pretty Well.
Key Features:
Direction Selection: Choose between "Up" or "Down" to specify the market direction you want to analyze.
Automatic Settings Adjustment: Enable this option to allow the indicator to automatically adjust settings for optimal analysis.
Original Gann Levels: Display original Gann theory levels Based on Gann Square of 9 Equations.
Auto Detect Tops/Bottoms: Determine the number of previous candles used to automatically detect Top or Bottom in the market.
Spacing Configuration: Adjust the spacing or offset between Gann levels to fine-tune your analysis.
Manual Starting Point: Manually set the starting point for your analysis.
Geometric Shape Selection: Choose from various geometric shapes including straight lines, triangles, quadrilaterals, and more...
Custom Angle Selection: Define custom angles for geometric shapes .
Time Interval Selection: Select time intervals such as 360 or 720 Etc...
Cycle Analysis: Determine the number of cycles to analyze market movements effectively.
Decimal Precision: Customize the number of decimal places displayed for accurate analysis.
Automatic Spacing (Under Development): Future feature to automatically select spacing for enhanced user experience.
Time Levels Display: Visualize time levels to gain insights into market timing.
Gann Star Display: Show Gann stars to identify critical market points.
Star Modification: Modify the appearance of Gann stars for better visualization.
Gann Grid Display: Display Gann grids to identify key support and resistance levels.
Grid Extension: Extend Gann grid lines for extended analysis.
Gann Fan Display: Show Gann fans to analyze trend lines and potential reversals.
Reverse Fan Display: Visualize Gann fans in reverse to explore alternative analysis perspectives.
Additional Fan Options: Explore more options for Gann fan analysis.
Time Line Adjustment: Move time lines to the right or left for flexible analysis.
Star Line Extension: Extend Gann star lines for deeper insights.
Fan Line Extension: Extend Gann fan lines for comprehensive trend analysis.
Customizable Colors: Customize colors for various indicators to suit your preference.
Width Adjustment: Adjust the width of trend lines for better visualization.
Label Customization: Customize colors and positions of level and price labels for clarity.
PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic [Loxx]The PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic is not your typical trading indicator. It synthesizes the computational brilliance of two famed technicians: John Ehlers and John Hull. Let's demystify its sophistication.
█ Ehlers' Phase Accumulation
John Ehlers is well-known in the trading community for his digital signal processing approach to market data. One of his standout techniques is phase accumulation. This method identifies the dominant cycle in the market by accumulating the phases of individual cycles. By doing so, it "adapts" to real-time market conditions.
Here's the brilliance of phase accumulation in this code
The indicator doesn't merely use a static look-back period. Instead, it dynamically determines the dominant market cycle through phase accumulation.
The calcComp function, rooted in Ehlers' methodology, provides a complex computation using a digital signal processing approach to filter out market noise and pinpoint the current cycle's frequency.
By measuring and adapting to the instantaneous period of the market, it ensures that the indicator remains relevant, especially in non-stationary market conditions.
Hull's Moving Average
John Hull introduced the Hull Moving Average (HMA) aiming to reduce lag and improve smoothing. The HMA's essence lies in its weighted average computation, prioritizing more recent prices.
This code takes an adaptive twist on the HMA
Instead of a fixed period, the HMA uses the dominant cycle length derived from Ehlers' phase accumulation. This makes the HMA not just fast and smooth, but also adaptive to the dominant market rhythm.
The intricate iLwmp function in the script provides this adaptive HMA computation. It's a weighted moving average, but its length isn't static; it's based on the previously determined dominant market cycle.
█ Trading Insights
The indicator paints the bars to represent the immediate trend: green for bullish and red for bearish.
Entry points, both long ("L") and short ("S"), are presented visually. These are derived from crossovers of the adaptive HMA, a clear indication of a potential shift in the trend.
Additionally, alert conditions are set, ready to notify a trader when these crossovers occur, ensuring real-time actionable insights.
█ Conclusion
The PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic is a masterclass in advanced technical indicator design. By marrying John Ehlers' adaptive phase accumulation with John Hull's HMA, it creates a dynamic, responsive, and precise tool for traders. It's not just about capturing the trend; it's about understanding the very rhythm of the market.
Leonid's Bitcoin Macro & Liquidity Regime Tracker🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)
This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.
✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.
---
📈 Why Macro?
Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles . Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:
Monetary easing
Liquidity injections
Expansionary central bank policy
This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.
🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.
---
🔍 What It Tracks
Macro Inputs:
- 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
- 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
- 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
- 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
- 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
- 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
- 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
- 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
- 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP
On-Chain Inputs:
- ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
- 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)
---
🧩 How It Works
Each input is:
Normalized to a 0–100 score
Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history
The chart will display:
🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores
---
🧠 Interpreting the Signal
| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |
---
❓ FAQ
Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.
Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25 : Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50 : Neutral environment
- 75–100 : Strong easing, liquidity surge
Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.
Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).
Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.
---
✅ How to Use
- Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
- Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
- Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
- Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment
---
🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.
[GYTS-CE] Market Regime Detector🧊 Market Regime Detector (Community Edition)
🌸 Part of GoemonYae Trading System (GYTS) 🌸
🌸 --------- INTRODUCTION --------- 🌸
💮 What is the Market Regime Detector?
The Market Regime Detector is an advanced, consensus-based indicator that identifies the current market state to increase the probability of profitable trades. By distinguishing between trending (bullish or bearish) and cyclic (range-bound) market conditions, this detector helps you select appropriate tactics for different environments. Instead of forcing a single strategy across all market conditions, our detector allows you to adapt your approach based on real-time market behaviour.
💮 The Importance of Market Regimes
Markets constantly shift between different behavioural states or "regimes":
• Bullish trending markets - characterised by sustained upward price movement
• Bearish trending markets - characterised by sustained downward price movement
• Cyclic markets - characterised by range-bound, oscillating behaviour
Each regime requires fundamentally different trading approaches. Trend-following strategies excel in trending markets but fail in cyclic ones, while mean-reversion strategies shine in cyclic markets but underperform in trending conditions. Detecting these regimes is essential for successful trading, which is why we've developed the Market Regime Detector to accurately identify market states using complementary detection methods.
🌸 --------- KEY FEATURES --------- 🌸
💮 Consensus-Based Detection
Rather than relying on a single method, our detector employs two complementary detection methodologies that analyse different aspects of market behaviour:
• Dominant Cycle Average (DCA) - analyzes price movement relative to its lookback period, a proxy for the dominant cycle
• Volatility Channel - examines price behaviour within adaptive volatility bands
These diverse perspectives are synthesised into a robust consensus that minimises false signals while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime changes.
💮 Dominant Cycle Framework
The Market Regime Detector uses the concept of dominant cycles to establish a reference framework. You can input the dominant cycle period that best represents the natural rhythm of your market, providing a stable foundation for regime detection across different timeframes.
💮 Intuitive Parameter System
We've distilled complex technical parameters into intuitive controls that traders can easily understand:
• Adaptability - how quickly the detector responds to changing market conditions
• Sensitivity - how readily the detector identifies transitions between regimes
• Consensus requirement - how much agreement is needed among detection methods
This approach makes the detector accessible to traders of all experience levels while preserving the power of the underlying algorithms.
💮 Visual Market Feedback
The detector provides clear visual feedback about the current market regime through:
• Colour-coded chart backgrounds (purple shades for bullish, pink for bearish, yellow for cyclic)
• Colour-coded price bars
• Strength indicators showing the degree of consensus
• Customizable colour schemes to match your preferences or trading system
💮 Integration in the GYTS suite
The Market Regime Detector is compatible with the GYTS Suite , i.e. it passes the regime into the 🎼 Order Orchestrator where you can set how to trade the trending and cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- CONFIGURATION SETTINGS --------- 🌸
💮 Adaptability
Controls how quickly the Market Regime detector adapts to changing market conditions. You can see it as a low-frequency, long-term change parameter:
Very Low: Very slow adaptation, most stable but may miss regime changes
Low: Slower adaptation, more stability but less responsiveness
Normal: Balanced between stability and responsiveness
High: Faster adaptation, more responsive but less stable
Very High: Very fast adaptation, highly responsive but may generate false signals
This setting affects lookback periods and filter parameters across all detection methods.
💮 Sensitivity
Controls how sensitive the detector is to market regime transitions. This acts as a high-frequency, short-term change parameter:
Very Low: Requires substantial evidence to identify a regime change
Low: Less sensitive, reduces false signals but may miss some transitions
Normal: Balanced sensitivity suitable for most markets
High: More sensitive, detects subtle regime changes but may have more noise
Very High: Very sensitive, detects minor fluctuations but may produce frequent changes
This setting affects thresholds for regime detection across all methods.
💮 Dominant Cycle Period
This parameter allows you to specify the market's natural rhythm in bars. This represents a complete market cycle (up and down movement). Finding the right value for your specific market and timeframe might require some experimentation, but it's a crucial parameter that helps the detector accurately identify regime changes. Most of the times the cycle is between 20 and 40 bars.
💮 Consensus Mode
Determines how the signals from both detection methods are combined to produce the final market regime:
• Any Method (OR) : Signals bullish/bearish if either method detects that regime. If methods conflict (one bullish, one bearish), the stronger signal wins. More sensitive, catches more regime changes but may produce more false signals.
• All Methods (AND) : Signals only when both methods agree on the regime. More conservative, reduces false signals but might miss some legitimate regime changes.
• Weighted Decision : Balances both methods with equal weighting. Provides a middle ground between sensitivity and stability.
Each mode also calculates a continuous regime strength value that's used for colour intensity in the 'unconstrained' display mode.
💮 Display Mode
Choose how to display the market regime colours:
• Unconstrained regime: Shows the regime strength as a continuous gradient. This provides more nuanced visualisation where the intensity of the colour indicates the strength of the trend.
• Consensus only: Shows only the final consensus regime with fixed colours based on the detected regime type.
The background and bar colours will change to indicate the current market regime:
• Purple shades: Bullish trending market (darker purple indicates stronger bullish trend)
• Pink shades: Bearish trending market (darker pink indicates stronger bearish trend)
• Yellow: Cyclic (range-bound) market
💮 Custom Colour Options
The Market Regime Detector allows you to customize the colour scheme to match your personal preferences or to coordinate with other indicators:
• Use custom colours: Toggle to enable your own colour choices instead of the default scheme
• Transparency: Adjust the transparency level of all regime colours
• Bullish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bullish trends
• Bearish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bearish trends
• Cyclic colour: Define a custom colour for cyclic (range-bound) market conditions
🌸 --------- DETECTION METHODS --------- 🌸
💮 Dominant Cycle Average (DCA)
The Dominant Cycle Average method forms a key part of our detection system:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
The DCA method builds on cycle analysis and the observation that in trending markets, price consistently remains on one side of a moving average calculated using the dominant cycle period. In contrast, during cyclic markets, price oscillates around this average.
2. Calculation Process :
• We calculate a Simple Moving Average (SMA) using the specified lookback period - a proxy for the dominant cycle period
• We then analyse the proportion of time that price spends above or below this SMA over a lookback window. The theory is that the price should cross the SMA each half cycle, assuming that the dominant cycle period is correct and price follows a sinusoid.
• This lookback window is adaptive, scaling with the dominant cycle period (controlled by the Adaptability setting)
• The different values are standardised and normalised to possess more resolving power and to be more robust to noise.
3. Regime Classification :
• When the normalised proportion exceeds a positive threshold (determined by Sensitivity setting), the market is classified as bullish trending
• When it falls below a negative threshold, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When the proportion remains between these thresholds, the market is classified as cyclic
💮 Volatility Channel
The Volatility Channel method complements the DCA method by focusing on price movement relative to adaptive volatility bands:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
This method is based on the observation that trending markets tend to sustain movement outside of normal volatility ranges, while cyclic markets tend to remain contained within these ranges. By creating adaptive bands that adjust to current market volatility, we can detect when price behaviour indicates a trending or cyclic regime.
2. Calculation Process :
• We first calculate a smooth base channel center using a low pass filter, creating a noise-reduced centreline for price
• True Range (TR) is used to measure market volatility, which is then smoothed and scaled by the deviation factor (controlled by Sensitivity)
• Upper and lower bands are created by adding and subtracting this scaled volatility from the centreline
• Price is smoothed using an adaptive A2RMA filter, which has a very flat and stable behaviour, to reduce noise while preserving trend characteristics
• The position of this smoothed price relative to the bands is continuously monitored
3. Regime Classification :
• When smoothed price moves above the upper band, the market is classified as bullish trending
• When smoothed price moves below the lower band, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When price remains between the bands, the market is classified as cyclic
• The magnitude of price's excursion beyond the bands is used to determine trend strength
4. Adaptive Behaviour :
• The smoothing periods and deviation calculations automatically adjust based on the Adaptability setting
• The measured volatility is calculated over a period proportional to the dominant cycle, ensuring the detector works across different timeframes
• Both the center line and the bands adapt dynamically to changing market conditions, making the detector responsive yet stable
This method provides a unique perspective that complements the DCA approach, with the consensus mechanism synthesising insights from both methods.
🌸 --------- USAGE GUIDE --------- 🌸
💮 Starting with Default Settings
The default settings (Normal for Adaptability and Sensitivity, Weighted Decision for Consensus Mode) provide a balanced starting point suitable for most markets and timeframes. Begin by observing how these settings identify regimes in your preferred instruments.
💮 Finding the Optimal Dominant Cycle
The dominant cycle period is a critical parameter. Here are some approaches to finding an appropriate value:
• Start with typical values, usually something around 25 works well
• Visually identify the average distance between significant peaks and troughs
• Experiment with different values and observe which provides the most stable regime identification
• Consider using cycle-finding indicators to help identify the natural rhythm of your market
💮 Adjusting Parameters
• If you notice too many regime changes → Decrease Sensitivity or increase Consensus requirement
• If regime changes seem delayed → Increase Adaptability
• If a trending regime is not detected, the market is automatically assigned to be in a cyclic state
• If you want to see more nuanced regime transitions → Try the "unconstrained" display mode (note that this will not affect the output to other indicators)
💮 Trading Applications
Regime-Specific Strategies:
• Bullish Trending Regime - Use trend-following strategies, trail stops wider, focus on breakouts, consider holding positions longer, and emphasize buying dips
• Bearish Trending Regime - Consider shorts, tighter stops, focus on breakdown points, sell rallies, implement downside protection, and reduce position sizes
• Cyclic Regime - Apply mean-reversion strategies, trade range boundaries, apply oscillators, target definable support/resistance levels, and use profit-taking at extremes
Strategy Switching:
Create a set of rules for each market regime and switch between them based on the detector's signal. This approach can significantly improve performance compared to applying a single strategy across all market conditions.
GYTS Suite Integration:
• In the GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator, select the '🔗 STREAM-int 🧊 Market Regime' as the market regime source
• Note that the consensus output (i.e. not the "unconstrained" display) will be used in this stream
• Create different strategies for trending (bullish/bearish) and cyclic regimes. The GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator is specifically made for this.
• The output stream is actually very simple, and can possibly be used in indicators and strategies as well. It outputs 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish and 0 for cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- FINAL NOTES --------- 🌸
💮 Development Philosophy
The Market Regime Detector has been developed with several key principles in mind:
1. Robustness - The detection methods have been rigorously tested across diverse markets and timeframes to ensure reliable performance.
2. Adaptability - The detector automatically adjusts to changing market conditions, requiring minimal manual intervention.
3. Complementarity - Each detection method provides a unique perspective, with the collective consensus being more reliable than any individual method.
4. Intuitiveness - Complex technical parameters have been abstracted into easily understood controls.
💮 Ongoing Refinement
The Market Regime Detector is under continuous development. We regularly:
• Fine-tune parameters based on expanded market data
• Research and integrate new detection methodologies
• Optimise computational efficiency for real-time analysis
Your feedback and suggestions are very important in this ongoing refinement process!
Adaptive Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) [Loxx]Adaptive QQE is a fixed and cycle adaptive version of the popular Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) used by forex traders. This indicator includes varoius types of RSI caculations and adaptive cycle measurements to find tune your signal.
Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE):
The Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) indicator works like a smoother version of the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. QQE expands on RSI by adding two volatility based trailing stop lines. These trailing stop lines are composed of a fast and a slow moving Average True Range (ATR).
There are many indicators for many purposes. Some of them are complex and some are comparatively easy to handle. The QQE indicator is a really useful analytical tool and one of the most accurate indicators. It offers numerous strategies for using the buy and sell signals. Essentially, it can help detect trend reversal and enter the trade at the most optimal positions.
Wilders' RSI:
The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is a well versed momentum based oscillator which is used to measure the speed (velocity) as well as the change (magnitude) of directional price movements. Essentially RSI , when graphed, provides a visual mean to monitor both the current, as well as historical, strength and weakness of a particular market. The strength or weakness is based on closing prices over the duration of a specified trading period creating a reliable metric of price and momentum changes. Given the popularity of cash settled instruments (stock indexes) and leveraged financial products (the entire field of derivatives); RSI has proven to be a viable indicator of price movements.
RSX RSI:
RSI is a very popular technical indicator, because it takes into consideration market speed, direction and trend uniformity. However, the its widely criticized drawback is its noisy (jittery) appearance. The Jurk RSX retains all the useful features of RSI , but with one important exception: the noise is gone with no added lag.
Rapid RSI:
Rapid RSI Indicator, from Ian Copsey's article in the October 2006 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
RapidRSI resembles Wilder's RSI , but uses a SMA instead of a WilderMA for internal smoothing of price change accumulators.
VHF Adaptive Cycle:
Vertical Horizontal Filter (VHF) was created by Adam White to identify trending and ranging markets. VHF measures the level of trend activity, similar to ADX DI. Vertical Horizontal Filter does not, itself, generate trading signals, but determines whether signals are taken from trend or momentum indicators. Using this trend information, one is then able to derive an average cycle length.
Band-pass Adaptive Cycle:
Even the most casual chart reader will be able to spot times when the market is cycling and other times when longer-term trends are in play. Cycling markets are ideal for swing trading however attempting to “trade the swing” in a trending market can be a recipe for disaster. Similarly, applying trend trading techniques during a cycling market can equally wreak havoc in your account. Cycle or trend modes can readily be identified in hindsight. But it would be useful to have an objective scientific approach to guide you as to the current market mode.
There are a number of tools already available to differentiate between cycle and trend modes. For example, measuring the trend slope over the cycle period to the amplitude of the cyclic swing is one possibility.
We begin by thinking of cycle mode in terms of frequency or its inverse, periodicity. Since the markets are fractal ; daily, weekly, and intraday charts are pretty much indistinguishable when time scales are removed. Thus it is useful to think of the cycle period in terms of its bar count. For example, a 20 bar cycle using daily data corresponds to a cycle period of approximately one month.
When viewed as a waveform, slow-varying price trends constitute the waveform's low frequency components and day-to-day fluctuations (noise) constitute the high frequency components. The objective in cycle mode is to filter out the unwanted components--both low frequency trends and the high frequency noise--and retain only the range of frequencies over the desired swing period. A filter for doing this is called a bandpass filter and the range of frequencies passed is the filter's bandwidth.
Included:
-Toggle on/off bar coloring
-Customize RSI signal using fixed, VHF Adaptive, and Band-pass Adaptive calculations
-Choose from three different RSI types
Visuals:
-Red/Green line is the moving average of RSI
-Thin white line is the fast trend
-Dotted yellow line is the slow trend
Happy trading!
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
ETH/SOL 1D Dynamic Trend Core - Indicator v46🚀 Dynamic Trend Core
The Dynamic Trend Core is a sophisticated, multi-layer trading engine designed to identify high-probability, trend-following opportunities. It offers both a quantitative backtesting engine and a rich, intuitive visual interface.
Its core philosophy is simple: confirmation. The system seeks to filter out market noise by requiring a confluence of conditions—trend, momentum, price action, and volume—to be in alignment before a signal is considered valid.
⚙️ Core Logic Components
Primary Trend Analysis (SAMA): The foundation is a Self-Adjusting Moving Average (SAMA) that determines the underlying market trend (Bullish, Bearish, or Consolidation).
Confirmation & Momentum: Signals are confirmed with a blend of the Natural Market Slope and a Cyclic RSI to ensure momentum aligns with the primary trend.
Advanced Filtering Layers: A suite of optional filters allows for robust customization:
Volume & ADX: Ensure sufficient market participation and trend strength.
Market Regime: Uses the total crypto market cap to gauge broad market health.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF): Aligns signals with the dominant weekly trend.
BTC Cycle Analysis: Uses Halving or Mayer Multiple models to position trades within historical macro cycles.
Delta Zones: An additional filter to confirm signals with recent buy or sell pressure detected in candle wicks.
📊 The On-Chart Command Center
The strategy's real power comes from its on-chart visual feedback system, which provides full transparency into the engine's decision-making process.
Note: For the dashboard to update in real-time, you must enable "Recalculate on every tick" in the script's settings.
Power Core Gauge: Located at the bottom-center, this gauge is the heart of the system. It displays the number of active filter conditions met (e.g., 6/7) and "powers up" by glowing brightly as a signal becomes fully confirmed.
Live Conditions Panel: In the bottom-right corner, this panel acts as a detailed pre-flight checklist. It shows the real-time status of every single filter, helping you understand exactly why a trade is (or is not) being triggered.
Energized Trendline: The main SAMA trendline changes color and brightness based on the strength and direction of the trend, providing immediate visual context.
Halving Cycle Visualization: An optional visual guide to the phases of the Bitcoin halving cycle.
Delta Zone Pressure Boxes: A visual guide that draws boxes around candles exhibiting significant buying or selling pressure.
🛠️ How to Use
Operation Mode: "Alerts-Only Mode" for generating live signals.
Configure Strategy: Start with the default filters. If a potential trade setup is missed, check the Live Conditions Panel to see exactly which filter blocked the signal. Adjust the filters to suit your specific asset and timeframe.
Manage Risk: Adjust the Risk & Exit settings to match your personal risk tolerance.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram [Loxx]Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram contains two versions of Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. This indicator is meant to supplement adaptive cycle indicators that myself and others have published on Trading View, will continue to publish on Trading View. These are fast-loading, low-overhead, streamlined, exact replicas of Ehlers' work without any other adjustments or inputs.
Versions:
- 2013, Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers
- 2016, TASC September, "Measuring Market Cycles"
Description
The Ehlers Autocorrelation study is a technical indicator used in the calculation of John F. Ehlers’s Autocorrelation Periodogram. Its main purpose is to eliminate noise from the price data, reduce effects of the “spectral dilation” phenomenon, and reveal dominant cycle periods. The spectral dilation has been discussed in several studies by John F. Ehlers; for more information on this, refer to sources in the "Further Reading" section.
As the first step, Autocorrelation uses Mr. Ehlers’s previous installment, Ehlers Roofing Filter, in order to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and neutralize the spectral dilation. This filter is based on aerospace analog filters and when applied to market data, it attempts to only pass spectral components whose periods are between 10 and 48 bars.
Autocorrelation is then applied to the filtered data: as its name implies, this function correlates the data with itself a certain period back. As with other correlation techniques, the value of +1 would signify the perfect correlation and -1, the perfect anti-correlation.
Using values of Autocorrelation in Thermo Mode may help you reveal the cycle periods within which the data is best correlated (or anti-correlated) with itself. Those periods are displayed in the extreme colors (orange) while areas of intermediate colors mark periods of less useful cycles.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book mentioned above, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator.This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, as we have seen in previous chapters, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
How to use this indicator
The point of the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm is to dynamically set a period between a minimum and a maximum period length. While I leave the exact explanation of the mechanic to Dr. Ehlers’s book, for all practical intents and purposes, in my opinion, the punchline of this method is to attempt to remove a massive source of overfitting from trading system creation–namely specifying a look-back period. SMA of 50 days? 100 days? 200 days? Well, theoretically, this algorithm takes that possibility of overfitting out of your hands. Simply, specify an upper and lower bound for your look-back, and it does the rest. In addition, this indicator tells you when its best to use adaptive cycle inputs for your other indicators.
Usage Example 1
Let's say you're using "Adaptive Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) ". This indicator has the option of adaptive cycle inputs. When the "Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram " shows a period of high correlation that adaptive cycle inputs work best during that period.
Usage Example 2
Check where the dominant cycle line lines, grab that output number and inject it into your other standard indicators for the length input.
Moon Phases & Declinations - Chronos Capital [BETA]High-Precision Lunar Cycles: Moon Phases & Declinations (Swiss Ephemeris)
Overview
This indicator provides institutional-grade astronomical data directly on your chart. Unlike standard scripts that use basic sine-wave approximations, this tool implements the **Swiss Ephemeris algorithm**, the gold standard for high-precision celestial calculations.
By tracking the Moon’s phases and its **Maximum/Minimum Declinations**, traders can identify potential "turning points" or "energy shifts" in market volatility often associated with lunar cycles.
---
Key Features
Ultra-High Precision: Calculations are accurate to within *seconds* of time, ensuring that the visual plot aligns perfectly with astronomical reality.
Moon Phase Tracking: Distinct markers for New Moon, Full Moon, and Quarters.
Lunar Declination Peaks: Automatically identifies when the moon reaches its *Maximum North* and *Maximum South* points (Lunar Extremes).
Customizable Visuals: Toggle between background highlights, vertical lines, or plot signals to suit your trading style.
---
Technical Accuracy
This script is built using a ported version of the Swiss Ephemeris
Positional Accuracy: Within 0.1 arcseconds.
Time Accuracy: Within **~1-2 seconds** of official JPL data.
Algorithm: Integration of the *ELP2000-85* lunar theory for maximum reliability over decades of historical data.
---
### **How to Use**
1. **Reversal Zones:** Watch for the Moon’s *Max/Min Declination* points, which often coincide with local tops or bottoms in trending markets.
2. **Volatility Shifts:** Use the *New Moon* and *Full Moon* markers to anticipate periods of increased or decreased market liquidity and volume.
3. **Confluence:** Best used in combination with your existing price action or momentum indicators to add a "time-based" filter to your entries.
*Disclaimer: This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. Lunar cycles are a study of time-based correlation, not a guaranteed financial signal.*
GUSI ProGUSI — Adaptive Bitcoin Cycle Risk Model
Most on-chain metrics published on TradingView — such as NUPL, MVRV, or Puell Multiple — were once reliable in past cycles but have lost accuracy. The reason is simple: their trigger levels are static, while Bitcoin’s market structure changes over time. Tops have formed lower each cycle, yet the traditional horizontal thresholds remain unchanged.
What GUSI does differently:
It introduces sloped trigger functions that decrease over time, adapting each metric to Bitcoin’s maturing market.
It applies long-term normalization methods (smoothing and z-score lookups) to reduce distortion from short-term volatility and extreme outliers.
It only includes signals that remain valid across all Bitcoin cycles since 2011, discarding dozens of popular on-chain ideas that fail even after adjustment.
How GUSI is built:
GUSI is not just a mashup of indicators. Each component is a proprietary, modified version of a known on-chain signal:
Logarithmic MACD with declining trigger bands
MVRV-Z Score Regression with cycle-aware slopes
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio normalized with dynamic z-scores
Puell Multiple with logarithmic decay
Weekly RSI momentum filter for bottoms
Optional Pi Cycle Top logic with sloped moving averages
These are combined into a composite risk scoring system (0–100). Every signal contributes to the score according to user-defined weights, and each can be toggled on/off. The end result is a flexible model that adapts to long-term changes in Bitcoin’s cycles while staying transparent in its logic.
How to use it:
Scores near 97 indicate historically high-risk conditions (cycle tops).
Scores near 2.5 highlight deep accumulation zones (cycle bottoms).
Background colors and labels make the conditions clear, and built-in alerts let you automate your strategy.
GUSI is designed for the INDEX:BTCUSD 1D chart and works best when viewed in that context.
In short: GUSI makes classic on-chain indicators relevant again by adapting them to Bitcoin’s evolving market cycles. Instead of relying on static thresholds that stop working over time, it introduces dynamic slopes, normalization, and a weighted composite framework that traders can adjust themselves.
Sequential SMT (QT)Sequential SMT (Quarterly Theory)
Price Divergences Between Correlated Asset Pairs Across Time Quarters
This indicator identifies Sequential SMT patterns - divergences between correlated assets across consecutive time periods. When price action diverges between traditionally correlated pairs, it may signal potential reversals or distribution phases.
How It Works
The indicator divides the trading day into specific time quarters and analyzes price extremes within each period. It compares consecutive quarters to detect divergences:
Bullish Pattern: One asset makes a lower low while its correlated pair makes a higher/equal low
Bearish Pattern: One asset makes a higher high while its correlated pair makes a lower/equal high
This implementation enhances standard divergence detection by:
Analyzing multiple timeframe cycles simultaneously (dual-cycle approach)
Using both wick and body-based analysis for hidden divergences
Incorporating True Open levels as confluence filters
Providing visual quarter/cycle boundaries for context
Key Features
Dual-Cycle Detection
M5 Timeframe: Tracks Daily Cycles (6h) AND 90-minute quarters simultaneously
M1 Timeframe: Tracks 90-minute cycles AND 22.5-minute quarters simultaneously
Both cycle types run concurrently for multiple confluence levels
Divergence Analysis
Standard Patterns: Identifies divergences using full candle ranges
Hidden Patterns: Body-only analysis for concealed divergence detection
5 Configurable Correlation Pairs
Pre-configured with major correlations:
BTC/ETH (Cryptocurrency pairs)
NQ/ES (Index futures)
EUR/GBP (Forex majors)
Gold/Silver (Precious metals)
Custom pair slot
Visual Components
Quarter Boxes: Color-coded Q1-Q4 periods showing price ranges
Cycle Frames: Larger timeframe boundaries for context
SSMT Lines: Connect divergence points between quarters
True Opens: TDO (daily) and TSO (session) reference levels
Dual Labels: Period identification for each timeframe
Trading Application
This indicator is designed to identify divergence patterns that may precede reversals:
Signals are strongest when divergences occur near True Open levels
Multiple timeframe confluence increases signal reliability
Best used in conjunction with other technical analysis methods
The indicator is particularly useful for traders who:
Trade correlated asset pairs
Focus on intraday reversals
Use time-based market structure analysis
Combine multiple confluence factors for entries
Customization
Toggle individual components, adjust colors, control visual density. Configure correlation pairs to match your trading instruments. Debug panel available for detailed analysis.
Important Note
This indicator identifies divergence patterns based on mathematical relationships between correlated assets. Like all technical indicators, it should be used as part of a comprehensive trading approach with proper risk management.
---
Based on time-quarter analysis and correlation divergence concepts. Designed to help identify potential reversal zones through systematic divergence detection across multiple time cycles.
Muzyorae - Quarterly TheoryQuarterly Theory — NY Session Macro Model
The Quarterly Theory Model is a structured framework for analyzing intraday market behavior based on institutional activity and macro-level cycles.
It divides the New York trading session into four sequential “quarters” (Q1–Q4), each representing distinct phases of market participation, liquidity accumulation, and directional bias.
This model is designed for professional traders who aim to align their strategies with institutional flows, key liquidity zones, and market structure shifts.
It accommodates both AMDX (Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution → Expansion) and XAMD (reversal sequences) fractal patterns, allowing traders to adapt to varying market conditions.
Price action may expand early during Q1 in an XAMD sequence, representing an initial breakout or early liquidity sweep before the typical Q2 manipulation phase. Traders should be aware that Q1 can occasionally produce unexpected volatility or directional bias in such sequences.
Session Breakdown (New York Time)
Q1 – Accumulation
Time: 9:30 – 10:00 AM
Phase Characteristics: Early session positioning, initial liquidity sweeps, and false moves. Institutions build positions while retail participants often react to gaps and premarket activity.
Note: Price may expand early in an XAMD sequence, creating a short-term directional move before Q2.
Q2 – Manipulation / Expansion
Time: 10:00 – 11:30 AM
Phase Characteristics: The main directional move develops, often characterized by breaks of structure, fair value gaps, and liquidity sweeps. This is a prime area for trend initiation.
Q3 – Distribution / Retracement
Time: 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM
Phase Characteristics: Price consolidates and retraces into prior accumulation zones, reflecting profit-taking or redistribution by institutions. Market chop and sideways movement are common.
Q4 – Final Expansion / Repricing
Time: 1:30 – 4:00 PM
Phase Characteristics: The afternoon session often produces final liquidity sweeps, trend continuation, or reversals, setting the high or low of the day and completing the daily macro cycle.
Key Features of the Model
Fractal-Based Structure: Q1–Q4 cycles reflect institutional behavior at a macro level, scalable to other intraday or multi-day fractals.
Supports AMDX & XAMD: Allows for both standard accumulation → manipulation → distribution → expansion sequences and reversal patterns depending on market behavior.
Early Expansion in Q1: Recognizes that in XAMD sequences, Q1 may produce early directional moves or breakout activity.
True Open Q2 Line: Highlights the opening price of Q2 as a reference for trend validation and potential entry zones.
Dynamic Time Alignment: Fully synchronized with New York (ET) time zone, ensuring accurate representation of market cycles.
Professional Visualization: Optional labels and vertical markers for each quarter, supporting quick visual analysis and pattern recognition.
Integration with ICT Concepts: Compatible with Smart Money Techniques (SMT), Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Order Blocks (OBs), and Break of Structure (BOS) for enhanced trade planning.
Purpose and Application
Anticipates areas of liquidity accumulation and manipulation.
Identifies optimal entry and exit zones within institutional cycles.
Structures trades around probable trend initiation and continuation periods.
Aligns retail activity with institutional flow for higher probability setups.
Adapts to market variability through AMDX and XAMD fractal patterns.
Accounts for early expansions or breakout activity during Q1 in XAMD sequences.
By using the Quarterly Theory Model, traders gain a systematic, time-based framework to interpret market structure and maximize alignment with institutional participants.
Mikula's Master 360° Square of 12Mikula’s Master 360° Square of 12
An educational W. D. Gann study indicator for price and time. Anchor a compact Square of 12 table to a start point you choose. Begin from a bar’s High or Low (or set a manual start price). From that anchor you can progress or regress the table to study how price steps through cycles in either direction.
What you’re looking at :
Zodiac rail (far left): the twelve signs.
Degree rail: 24 rows in 15° steps from 15° up to 360°/0°.
Transit rail and Natal rail: track one planet per rail. Each planet is placed at its current row (℞ shown when retrograde). As longitude advances, the planet climbs bottom → top, then wraps to the bottom at the next sign; during retrograde it steps downward.
Hover a planet’s cell to see a tooltip with its exact longitude and sign (e.g., 152.4° ♌︎). The linked price cell in the grid moves with the planet’s row so you can follow a planet’s path through the zodiac as a path through price.
Price grid (right): the 12×24 Square of 12. Each column is a cycle; cells are stepped price levels from your start price using your increment.
Bottom rail: shows the current square number and labels the twelve columns in that square.
How the square is read
The square always begins at the bottom left. Read each column bottom → top. At the top, return to the bottom of the next column and read up again. One square contains twelve cycles. Because the anchor can be a High or a Low, you can progress the table upward from the anchor or regress it downward while keeping the same bottom-to-top reading order.
Iterate Square (shifting)
Iterate Square shifts the entire 12×24 grid to the next set of twelve cycles.
Square 1 shows cycles 1–12; Square 2 shows 13–24; Square 3 shows 25–36, etc.
Visibility rules
Pivot cells are table-bound. If you shift the square beyond those prices, their highlights won’t appear in the table.
A/B levels and Transit/Natal planetary lines are chart overlays and can remain visible on the table as you shift the square.
Quick use
Choose an anchor (date/time + High/Low) or enable a manual start price .
Set the increment. If you anchored with a Low and want the table to step downward from there, use a negative value.
Optional: pick Transit and Natal planets (one per rail), toggle their plots, and hover their cells for longitude/sign.
Optional: turn on A/B levels to display repeating bands from the start price.
Optional: enable swing pivots to tint matching cells after the anchor.
Use Iterate Square to shift to later squares of twelve cycles.
Examples
These are exploratory examples to spark ideas:
Overview layout (zodiac & degree rails, Transit/Natal rails, price grid)
A-levels plotted, pivots tinted on the table, real-time price highlighted
Drawing angles from the anchor using price & time read from the table
Using a TradingView Gann box along the A-levels to study reactions
Attribution & originality
This script is an original implementation (no external code copied). Conceptual credit to Patrick Mikula, whose discussion of the Master 360° Square of 12 inspired this study’s presentation.
Further reading (neutral pointers)
Patrick Mikula, Gann’s Scientific Methods Unveiled, Vol. 2, “W. D. Gann’s Use of the Circle Chart.”
W. D. Gann’s Original Commodity Course (as provided by WDGAN.com).
No affiliation implied.
License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial; please attribute @Javonnii and link the original).
Dependency AstroLib by @BarefootJoey
Disclaimer Educational use only; not financial advice.
Aeon FluxAeon Flux visualizes rolling cumulative realized volatility, as a signal-generating leading indicator.
'Realized volatility' is shorthand for the metric's true output: entropy . The uniformity (or lack of uniformity) of price and volume distributions over a rolling cumulative period, normalized across the asset's full history.
Entropy = x⋅log2(x)−(1−x)⋅log2(1−x)
AEON FLUX VISUALIZES TIME CYCLES
Aeon Flux distills any asset's cyclical pendulum-like behavior, from bull to bear and vice versa, in a visualization that surfaces and isolates the pendulum shift.
As such, Aeon Flux may be the first metric to automate visualization of time cycles.
Time cycles are a soft science and esoteric concept in markets: an opinion, hard to prove or disprove.
They're ultimately just cycles of accumulation & distribution, that tend to recur at rough consistent intervals.
(Aeon Flux does not measure accumulation & distribution directly, those forces are merely implied.)
ENTROPY AS A LEADING INDICATOR
The transitions between state (from bullish to bearish & vice versa) are often good swing entries & exits, across a wide range of high cap risk markets.
ENTROPY AS A DISTRIBUTION MONITOR
Aeon Flux has a track record of detecting higher timeframe macro distribution on the BTC Index.
The signal: two cycles in a row of lower highs, where the cycle high (the highest oscillator print achieved that cycle) is lower than the previous cycle's high.
Invalidation: if the second cycle in a row of lower highs touches the green AND red target areas on its way up, that demonstrates robust volatility, and the distribution signal is invalidated.
ALERTS & NOTIFICATIONS
Alerts are enabled for swing long & short signals. Automating alerts to monitor distribution are a potential enhancement for future iterations of the script.
Bitcoin Macro Trend Map [Ox_kali]
## Introduction
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” script is designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s macroeconomic trends. By leveraging a unique combination of Bitcoin-specific macroeconomic indicators, this script helps traders identify potential market peaks and troughs with greater accuracy. It synthesizes data from multiple sources to offer a probabilistic view of market excesses, whether overbought or oversold conditions.
This script offers significant value for the following reasons:
1. Holistic Market Analysis : It integrates a diverse set of indicators that cover various aspects of the Bitcoin market, from investor sentiment and market liquidity to mining profitability and network health. This multi-faceted approach provides a more complete picture of the market than relying on a single indicator.
2. Customization and Flexibility : Users can customize the script to suit their specific trading strategies and preferences. The script offers configurable parameters for each indicator, allowing traders to adjust settings based on their analysis needs.
3. Visual Clarity : The script plots all indicators on a single chart with clear visual cues. This includes color-coded indicators and background changes based on market conditions, making it easy for traders to quickly interpret complex data.
4. Proven Indicators : The script utilizes well-established indicators like the EMA, NUPL, PUELL Multiple, and Hash Ribbons, which are widely recognized in the trading community for their effectiveness in predicting market movements.
5. A New Comprehensive Indicator : By integrating background color changes based on the aggregate signals of various indicators, this script essentially creates a new, comprehensive indicator tailored specifically for Bitcoin. This visual representation provides an immediate overview of market conditions, enhancing the ability to spot potential market reversals.
Optimal for use on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week , the “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” provides traders with actionable insights, enhancing their ability to make informed decisions in the highly volatile Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script delivers a robust tool for identifying market extremes and potential reversal points.
## Key Indicators
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macroeconomic Data: The script combines several relevant macroeconomic indicators for Bitcoin, such as the 10-month EMA, M2 money supply, CVDD, Pi Cycle, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons (Full description bellow).
Open Source Sources: Most of the scripts used are sourced from open-source projects that I have modified to meet the specific needs of this script.
Recommended Timeframes: For optimal performance, it is recommended to use this script on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week.
Objective: The primary goal is to provide a probabilistic solution to identify market excesses, whether overbought or oversold points.
## Originality and Purpose
__________________________________________________________________________________
This script stands out by integrating multiple macroeconomic indicators into a single comprehensive tool. Each indicator is carefully selected and customized to provide insights into different aspects of the Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script offers a holistic view of market conditions, helping traders identify potential tops and bottoms with greater accuracy. This is the first version of the script, and additional macroeconomic indicators will be added in the future based on user feedback and other inputs.
## How It Works
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script works by plotting each macroeconomic indicator on a single chart, allowing users to visualize and interpret the data easily. Here’s a detailed look at how each indicator contributes to the analysis:
EMA 10 Monthly: Uses an exponential moving average over 10 monthly periods to signal bullish and bearish trends. This indicator helps identify long-term trends in the Bitcoin market by smoothing out price fluctuations to reveal the underlying trend direction.Moving Averages w/ 18 day/week/month.
Credit to @ryanman0
M2 Money Supply: Analyzes the evolution of global money supply, indicating market liquidity conditions. This indicator tracks the changes in the total amount of money available in the economy, which can impact Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against inflation or economic instability.
Credit to @dylanleclair
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed): An indicator based on the cumulative value of days destroyed, useful for identifying market turning points. This metric helps assess the Bitcoin market’s health by evaluating the age and value of coins that are moved, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment.
Credit to @Da_Prof
Pi Cycle: Uses simple and exponential moving averages to detect potential sell points. This indicator aims to identify cyclical peaks in Bitcoin’s price, providing signals for potential market tops.
Credit to @NoCreditsLeft
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Measures investors’ unrealized profit or loss to signal extreme market levels. This indicator shows the net profit or loss of Bitcoin holders as a percentage of the market cap, helping to identify periods of significant market optimism or pessimism.
Credit to @Da_Prof
PUELL Multiple: Assesses mining profitability relative to historical averages to indicate buying or selling opportunities. This indicator compares the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its yearly average, providing insights into when the market is overbought or oversold based on miner behavior.
Credit to @Da_Prof
MRVR Z-Scores: Compares market value to realized value to identify overbought or oversold conditions. This metric helps gauge the overall market sentiment by comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, identifying potential reversal points.
Credit to @Pinnacle_Investor
Hash Ribbons: Uses hash rate variations to signal buying opportunities based on miner capitulation and recovery. This indicator tracks the health of the Bitcoin network by analyzing hash rate trends, helping to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recoveries as potential buying opportunities.
Credit to @ROBO_Trading
## Indicator Visualization and Interpretation
__________________________________________________________________________________
For each horizontal line representing an indicator, a legend is displayed on the right side of the chart. If the conditions are positive for an indicator, it will turn green, indicating the end of a bearish trend. Conversely, if the conditions are negative, the indicator will turn red, signaling the end of a bullish trend.
The background color of the chart changes based on the average of green or red indicators. This parameter is configurable, allowing adjustment of the threshold at which the background color changes, providing a clear visual indication of overall market conditions.
## Script Parameters
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script includes several configurable parameters to customize the display and behavior of the indicators:
Color Style:
Normal: Default colors.
Modern: Modern color style.
Monochrome: Monochrome style.
User: User-customized colors.
Custom color settings for up trends (Up Trend Color), down trends (Down Trend Color), and NaN (NaN Color)
Background Color Thresholds:
Thresholds: Settings to define the thresholds for background color change.
Low/High Red Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bearish trends.
Low/High Green Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bullish trends.
Indicator Display:
Options to show or hide specific indicators such as EMA 10 Monthly, CVDD, Pi Cycle, M2 Money, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons.
Specific Indicator Settings:
EMA 10 Monthly: Options to customize the period for the exponential moving average calculation.
M2 Money: Aggregation of global money supply data.
CVDD: Adjustments for value normalization.
Pi Cycle: Settings for simple and exponential moving averages.
NUPL: Thresholds for unrealized profit/loss values.
PUELL: Adjustments for mining profitability multiples.
MRVR Z-Scores: Settings for overbought/oversold values.
Hash Ribbons: Options for hash rate moving averages and capitulation/recovery signals.
## Conclusion
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” by Ox_kali is a tool designed to analyze the Bitcoin market. By combining several macroeconomic indicators, this script helps identify market peaks and troughs. It is recommended to use it on timeframes from 1 day to 1 week for optimal trend analysis. The scripts used are sourced from open-source projects, modified to suit the specific needs of this analysis.
## Notes
__________________________________________________________________________________
This is the first version of the script and it is still in development. More indicators will likely be added in the future. Feedback and comments are welcome to improve this tool.
## Disclaimer:
__________________________________________________________________________________
Please note that the Open Interest liquidation map is not a guarantee of future market performance and should be used in conjunction with proper risk management. Always ensure that you have a thorough understanding of the indicator’s methodology and its limitations before making any investment decisions. Additionally, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wyckoff Phases OscillatorThe "Wyckoff Phases Oscillator" is a script designed for the TradingView platform. It's an indicator that provides traders with an oscillator-based visual representation of the Wyckoff Market Cycle. The oscillator doesn't overlay the price chart but instead appears in a separate panel beneath it.
How it works:
The script operates based on two input parameters: length and timeFrame. The length parameter, set by default to 21, determines the period used for various calculations within the script. On the other hand, timeFrame, set by default to "1", specifies the timeframe for which the script will gather and analyze data.
The script requests security information such as closing prices (higherClose), volume (higherVolume), highest prices (higherHigh), and lowest prices (higherLow) from the ticker symbol (syminfo.tickerid) within the defined timeframe.
Two exponential moving averages (ema1 and ema2) are calculated based on the closing prices, with lengths of 5 and 9 respectively.
A Rate of Change (ROC) is calculated based on the closing prices and the defined length.
An average volume (avgVolume) is calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) based on the volume and the defined length.
The script defines conditions for institutional buying and selling.
Institutional buying is determined when the closing price is greater than the lowest price and the volume is greater than the average volume.
Institutional selling is determined when the closing price is less than the highest price and the volume is greater than the average volume.
The script also defines conditions for the four phases of the Wyckoff Market Cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Each phase has specific conditions based on the closing prices, EMA values, ROC, and institutional buying or selling conditions.
The script then assigns oscillator values based on the Wyckoff phase:
Accumulation is assigned a value of 1
Markup is assigned a value of 2
Distribution is assigned a value of 3
Markdown is assigned a value of 4
These oscillator values are plotted as colored circles, with different colors representing different phases. The color values are specified in RGB format.
Finally, the script plots horizontal lines as references for each of the four phases using the hline function. These lines are labeled and color-coded to match the corresponding oscillator circles. The lines have a linewidth of 1 and are solid in style.
If the oscillator moves from level 1 (Accumulation) to level 2 (Markup), this could indicate a potential bullish trend, as the market moves from a phase of accumulation to a phase of increasing prices.
Conversely, if the oscillator moves from level 3 (Distribution) to level 4 (Markdown), this could signal a potential bearish trend, signaling that the market has moved from a phase of distribution to a phase of declining prices.
While the Wyckoff Phases Oscillator can provide valuable insights on its own, it can also be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators. For example, you might use it alongside a volume indicator to confirm signals, or with support and resistance levels to identify potential entry and exit points.
QTheory [SSMT]QTheory –
This indicator is built on Quarterly Theory (developed by Daye)
🔹 Quarterly Theory
Markets often unfold in repeating quarterly cycles (Q1–Q4) across multiple timeframes — yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, 90-minute, and even micro cycles. By dividing price action into these quarters, traders can better anticipate structural shifts, accumulation/distribution phases, and liquidity runs.
🔹 Sequential SMT (SSMT)
Sequential SMT extends standard SMT (Smart Money Technique) by comparing multiple assets (such as FX majors) to identify divergences across quarters.
🔹 Features of QTheory
Automatic detection of quarterly cycles across multiple timeframes.
Visual cycle boxes & customizable dividers.
Integrated SSMT signals with divergence line visualization.
DFR (Defining Range) with Fibonacci levels.
Support for up to 5 comparison assets, with inversion options.
Auto-cycle selection for seamless multi-timeframe adaptation.
Extensive customization for colors, opacity, and signal display.
🔹 How it works
QTheory divides price data into consistent “quarters” across multiple timeframes. Within each cycle, it tracks highs, lows, and divergences, then overlays this information as boxes, dividers, and optional signals on your chart. Traders can use these visual cues to better align entries and exits with institutional market behavior patterns.
🔹 How to use it
Enable the desired cycle type (e.g., weekly, daily, 90-minute) from the settings.
Toggle boxes, dividers, and signals depending on your trading style.
Use SSMT divergences and DFR Fibs to anticipate a reversal
Compare against other assets (e.g., DXY or correlated pairs) to refine confluence.
Enable "Show Weekends" for Crypto.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This tool is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and risk management.
[GYTS-Pro] Market Regime Detector🧊 Market Regime Detector (Professional Edition)
🌸 Part of GoemonYae Trading System (GYTS) 🌸
🌸 --------- INTRODUCTION --------- 🌸
💮 What is the Market Regime Detector?
The Market Regime Detector (Pro) is an elite, consensus-based market state analyzer designed to filter noise and identify the true underlying market structure. By distinguishing between trending (bullish or bearish) and cyclic (range-bound) market conditions with high precision, this detector acts as the "brain" of your trading system. Instead of forcing a single strategy across incompatible market conditions, the detector empowers you to deploy the right tactic at exactly the right time.
💮 The Importance of Market Regimes
Markets constantly shift between different behavioural states or "regimes":
• Bullish trending markets - characterised by sustained upward price movement
• Bearish trending markets - characterised by sustained downward price movement
• Cyclic markets - characterised by range-bound, oscillating behaviour
Each regime requires fundamentally different trading approaches. Trend-following strategies excel in trending markets but fail in cyclic ones, while mean-reversion strategies shine in cyclic markets but underperform in trending conditions. However, detecting these regimes is easier said than done, and we have gone through hundreds of hours of testing to create the Market Regime Detector, using multiple very sophisticated methods in an easy-to-use indicator.
💮 Professional vs Community Edition
The Market Regime Detector comes in two versions: a comprehensive Professional Edition and a streamlined Community Edition.
Key advantages of the Professional Edition:
• Enhanced detection accuracy - Utilises 5 advanced detection methods (compared to only 2 in the CE version)
• Proprietary cycle measurement - Automatically detects the market's dominant cycle instead of requiring manual input
• Superior consensus mechanism - Includes a unique "strength-weighted decision" mode that gives more influence to stronger signals
• Reduced false signals - Multiple complementary methods working together provide more reliable regime identification
• Advanced DSP algorithms - Implements sophisticated digital signal processing techniques for superior market analysis
The Professional Edition delivers significant improvements in detection accuracy, signal stability, and overall trading performance.
🌸 --------- KEY FEATURES --------- 🌸
💮 Consensus-Based Detection
Rather than relying on a single method, our detector employs multiple complementary detection methodologies that analyse different aspects of market behaviour:
• Advanced digital signal processing techniques
• Volatility and momentum analysis
• Adaptive filters and mathematical transformations
• Cycle identification
• Channel breakout detection
These diverse perspectives are synthesised into a robust consensus that minimises false signals while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime changes.
💮 Proprietary Dominant Cycle Measurement ( Pro Edition only )
At the heart of our Professional Edition detector is a proprietary dominant cycle measurement system that automatically and adaptively identifies the market's natural rhythm. This system provides a stable reference framework that continuously adapts to changing market conditions while avoiding the erratic behaviour of typical cycle-finding algorithms like Hilbert Transforms, Discrete Fourier Transforms, or autocorrelation measurements.
Unlike the Community Edition which requires manual input of a single, constant dominant cycle period, the Professional Edition automatically detects and continuously adapts this critical parameter. This automated and adaptive approach ensures optimal detection accuracy across different markets and timeframes without requiring user expertise in cycle analysis, and provides significantly better responsiveness to evolving market conditions.
💮 Intuitive Parameter System
We've distilled complex technical parameters into intuitive controls that traders can easily understand:
• Adaptability - how quickly the detector responds to changing market conditions
• Sensitivity - how readily the detector identifies transitions between regimes
• Consensus requirement - how much agreement is needed among detection methods
This approach makes the detector accessible to traders of all experience levels while preserving the power of the underlying algorithms.
💮 Visual Market Feedback
The detector provides clear visual feedback about the current market regime through:
• Colour-coded chart backgrounds (purple shades for bullish, pink for bearish, yellow for cyclic)
• Colour-coded price bars
• Strength indicators showing the degree of consensus
• Customisable color schemes to match your preferences or trading system
💮 Integration in the GYTS suite
What is of paramount importance, is that the Market Regime Detector is compatible with the GYTS Suite , i.e. it passes the regime into the Order Orchestrator where you can set how to trade the trending and cyclic regime. The intention is to integrate it with more indicators.
🌸 --------- CONFIGURATION SETTINGS --------- 🌸
💮 Adaptability
Controls how quickly the Market Regime detector adapts to changing market conditions. You can see it as a low-frequency, long-term change parameter:
• Very Low: Very slow adaptation, most stable but may miss regime changes
• Low: Slower adaptation, more stability but less responsiveness
• Normal: Balanced between stability and responsiveness
• High: Faster adaptation, more responsive but less stable
• Very High: Very fast adaptation, highly responsive but may generate false signals
This setting affects lookback periods and filter parameters across all detection methods.
💮 Sensitivity
Controls the conviction threshold required to trigger a regime change. This acts as a high-frequency, short-term filter for market noise:
• Very Low: Requires overwhelming evidence to identify a regime change.
• Low: Prioritizes stability; reduces false signals but may delay transition detection.
• Normal: Balanced sensitivity suitable for most liquid markets.
• High: Highly responsive; detects subtle regime changes early but may react to market noise.
• Very High: Extremely sensitive; detects minor fluctuations immediately.
Pro Feature Note: In the Strength-Weighted Decision mode, this setting acts as a dynamic calibrator. It not only adjusts individual method thresholds but also scales the global consensus threshold . A 'High' sensitivity lowers the barrier for the weighted consensus, allowing the system to react to early-stage breakouts even if not all methods fully agree yet.
💮 Consensus Mode
Determines how the signals from all detection methods are combined to produce the final market regime:
• Any Method (OR) : Signals bullish/bearish if any method detects that regime. If methods conflict, the stronger signal wins. More sensitive, catches more regime changes but may produce more false signals.
• All Methods (AND) : Signals only when all methods agree on the regime. More conservative, reduces false signals but might miss some legitimate regime changes.
• Weighted Decision : Balances all methods with equal voting rights. Signals bullish/bearish when the weighted consensus reaches a fixed majority (0.5). Provides a middle ground between sensitivity and stability.
• Strength-Weighted Decision ( Pro Edition only ): A "meritocratic" approach where methods reporting extreme confidence (high signal strength) are given proportionally more weight than those reporting weak signals. Unlike standard voting, a single clear signal from a highly reliable method can override indecision from others.
Note: The threshold for this decision is dynamically calibrated by your 'Sensitivity' setting, ensuring the logic adapts to your desired risk profile.
Each mode also calculates a continuous regime strength value that drives the color intensity in the 'unconstrained' display mode, giving you a visual heatmap of trend conviction.
💮 Display Mode
Choose how to display the market regime colours:
• Unconstrained regime: Shows the regime strength as a continuous gradient. This provides more nuanced visualisation where the intensity of the color indicates the strength of the trend.
• Consensus only: Shows only the final consensus regime with fixed colours based on the detected regime type.
The background and bar colours will change to indicate the current market regime:
• Purple shades : Bullish trending market. In 'unconstrained' mode, darker purple indicates a stronger bullish trend.
• Pink shades : Bearish trending market. In 'unconstrained' mode, darker pink indicates a stronger bearish trend.
• Yellow : Cyclic (range-bound) market.
💮 Custom Color Options
The Market Regime Detector allows you to customize the color scheme to match your personal preferences or to coordinate with other indicators:
• Use custom colours: Toggle to enable your own color choices instead of the default scheme
• Transparency: Adjust the transparency level of all regime colours
• Bullish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bullish trends
• Bearish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bearish trends
• Cyclic color: Define a custom color for cyclic (range-bound) market conditions
🌸 --------- DETECTION METHODS --------- 🌸
💮 Five-Method Consensus Architecture
The Professional Edition employs a sophisticated multi-stage architecture to determine market regimes with high precision.
The detection process flows through four logical stages:
1. Market Data & Cycle Detection
Price data flows into the system where the Dominant Cycle Detector automatically identifies the market's natural rhythm. This adaptive cycle length calibrates all subsequent calculations, ensuring the detector remains in sync with changing market conditions without manual adjustments.
2. Five Detection Methods
Using the detected cycle, five complementary algorithms independently evaluate the market state:
• Cyclic Centroid Analysis : Calculates the market's 'centre point' over its dominant cycle and measures price displacement to determine trend or equilibrium.
• Spectral Momentum : Measures momentum across the market's frequency spectrum to identify trend concentration.
• Energy Distribution Gauge : Gauges how price movement energy is distributed to flag cyclic or trending states.
• Volatility Channel : Models the market's volatility state, using band breakouts to indicate a trend.
• Phase Coherence Detector : Analyses phase relationships between adaptive low-pass filters to detect trend stability and identify early regime shifts.
3. Consensus Engine
The signals from all five methods are fed into the Consensus Engine. Depending on your configuration, it aggregates these votes using one of four logic modes (Any, All, Weighted, or Strength-Weighted) to filter out noise and confirm the true market regime.
4. Regime Output
The final result is broadcast as a clear market state:
• Bullish (1) : Trending upwards
• Bearish (-1) : Trending downwards
• Cyclic (0) : Range-bound or oscillating
This output drives the visual feedback on your chart and can be streamed directly to the Order Orchestrator for automated strategy switching.
💮 Synergy & Complementarity
What makes these methods powerful is not just their individual sophistication, but how they complement one another:
• Some excel at early detection while others provide confirmation
• Some analyse time-domain behaviour while others work in the frequency domain
• Some focus on momentum characteristics while others assess volatility patterns
• Some respond quickly to changes while others filter out market noise
This creates a comprehensive analytical framework that can detect regime changes more accurately than any single method. All methods utilize the automatically detected and continuously adaptive dominant cycle period, ensuring they remain precisely calibrated to current market conditions without manual intervention.
🌸 --------- USAGE GUIDE --------- 🌸
💮 Starting with Default Settings
The default settings (Normal for Adaptability, Sensitivity, and Consensus) provide a balanced starting point suitable for most markets and timeframes. Begin by observing how these settings identify regimes in your preferred instruments.
💮 Adjusting Parameters
• If you notice too many regime changes → Decrease Sensitivity or increase Consensus requirement
• If regime changes seem delayed → Increase Adaptability
• If a trending regime is not detected, the market is automatically assigned to be in a cyclic state. The majority of methods actually measure this explicitly.
• If you want to see more nuanced regime transitions → Try the "unconstrained" display mode (note that this will not affect the output to other indicators)
💮 Trading Applications
Regime-Specific Strategies:
• Bullish Trending Regime - Use trend-following strategies, trail stops wider, focus on breakouts, consider holding positions longer, and emphasise buying dips
• Bearish Trending Regime - Consider shorts, tighter stops, focus on breakdown points, sell rallies, implement downside protection, and reduce position sizes
• Cyclic Regime - Apply mean-reversion strategies, trade range boundaries, apply oscillators, target definable support/resistance levels, and use profit-taking at extremes
Strategy Switching:
Create a set of rules for each market regime and switch between them based on the detector's signal. This approach can significantly improve performance compared to applying a single strategy across all market conditions. The Pro Edition's multiple detection methods and advanced consensus mechanisms provide more reliable regime transitions, leading to better strategy switching decisions.
GYTS Suite Integration:
• In the GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator, select the '🔗 STREAM-int 🧊 Market Regime' as the market regime source
• Note that the consensus output (i.e. not the "unconstrained" display) will be used in this stream
• Create different strategies for trending (bullish/bearish) and cyclic regimes. The GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator is specifically made for this.
• The output stream is actually very simple, and can possibly be used in indicators and strategies as well. It outputs 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish and 0 for cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- FINAL NOTES --------- 🌸
💮 Development Philosophy
The Market Regime Detector has been developed with several key principles in mind:
1. Robustness - The detection methods have been rigorously tested across diverse markets and timeframes to ensure reliable performance.
2. Adaptability - The detector automatically adjusts to changing market conditions, requiring minimal manual intervention.
3. Complementarity - Each detection method provides a unique perspective, with the collective consensus being more reliable than any individual method.
4. Intuitiveness - Complex technical parameters have been abstracted into easily understood controls.
💮 Ongoing Refinement
The Market Regime Detector is under continuous development. We regularly:
• Fine-tune parameters based on expanded market data using state-of-the-art Machine Learning techniques
• Research and integrate new detection methodologies
• Optimise computational efficiency for real-time analysis
Your feedback and suggestions are very important in this ongoing refinement process!
Gould 10Y + 4Y patternDescription:
Overview This indicator is a comprehensive tool for macro-market analysis, designed to visualize historical market cycles on your chart. It combines Edson Gould’s famous Decennial Pattern with a Customizable 4-Year Cycle (e.g., 2002 base) to help traders identify long-term trends, potential market bottoms, and strong bullish years.
This tool is ideal for long-term investors and analysts looking for cyclical confluence on monthly or yearly timeframes (e.g., SPX, NDX).
Key Concepts
Edson Gould’s Decennial Pattern (10-Year Cycle)
Based on the theory that the stock market follows a psychological cycle determined by the last digit of the year.
5 (Strongest Bull): Historically the strongest performance years.
7 (Panic/Crash): Years often associated with market panic or crashes.
2 (Bottom/Buy): Years that often mark major lows.
Custom 4-Year Cycle (Target Year Strategy)
Identify recurring 4-year opportunities based on a user-defined base year.
Default Setting (Base 2002): Highlights years like 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022... which have historically been significant market bottoms or excellent buying opportunities.
When a "Target Year" arrives, the indicator highlights the background and displays a distinct Green "Target Year" Label.
Features
Real-time Dashboard: A table in the top-right corner displays the current year's status for both the 10-Year and 4-Year cycles, including a countdown to the next target year.
Dynamic Labels: Automatically marks every year on the chart with its Decennial status (e.g., "Strong Bull (5)", "Panic (7)").
Visual Highlighting:
Target Years: Distinct green background and labels for easy identification of the 4-year cycle.
Significant Decennial Years: Special small markers for years ending in 5 and 7.
Fully Customizable: You can change the base year for the 4-year cycle, toggle the dashboard, and adjust colors via the settings menu.
How to Use
Apply this indicator to high-timeframe charts (Weekly or Monthly) of major indices like S&P 500 or Nasdaq.
Look for confluence between the 10-Year Pattern (e.g., Year 6 - Bullish) and the 4-Year Cycle (Target Year) to confirm long-term bias.
Disclaimer This tool is for educational and research purposes only based on historical cycle theories. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always manage your risk.
BTC GOD — DEFINITIVE BTC MULTI INDICATORBTC GOD — The Ultimate Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (2025 Edition)
The one indicator every serious BTC holder and trader has been waiting for.
A single script that perfectly combines the 5 most powerful and accurate Bitcoin indicators ever created — all 100 % official versions:
- Official Pi Cycle Top (LookIntoBitcoin) → in 2013, 2017 & 2021 (3/3 hits)
- Official MVRV Z-Score (Glassnode / LookIntoBitcoin) → every major bottom (2015, 2018–19, 2022)
- Dynamic Bull/Bear background (red bear-market when price drops X % from cycle ATH + monthly RSI filter)
- Monthly Golden/Death Cross (50-month EMA vs 200-week EMA) → huge, unmistakable signals
- SuperTrend + 200-week EMA + 50-month EMA
- Cycle ATH/ATL tracking with flashing alert in the table when new highs/lows are made
- Exact days to/from the next halving + optimal accumulation zone (200–750 days post-halving)
- Fully customizable inputs for experienced traders
Zero repainting. Zero errors. Works on every timeframe.
This is the indicator used by people who truly understand Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles.
If you could only keep ONE Bitcoin indicator for the rest of your life… this would be it.
Save it, test it, and you’ll instantly see why it’s called BTC GOD.
Built with love and obsession for Bitcoin cycles.
Last update: November 2025
MastersCycleSignal(Mastersinnifty)Overview
MastersCycleSignal is a high-precision market timing and projection indicator for trend-following and swing traders.
It combines an adaptive cycle detection algorithm, forward-looking sine wave projections, dynamic momentum confirmation, and Gann Square of 9-based geometric targets into a complete structured trading framework.
The script continuously analyzes price oscillations to detect dominant cycles, projects expected price behavior with future-facing sine approximations, and generates buy/sell signals once confirmed by adaptive momentum filtering.
Upon confirmation, it calculates mathematically consistent Gann-based target levels and risk-managed stop-loss suggestions.
Users also benefit from auto-extending targets as price action unfolds — helping traders anticipate rather than react to market shifts.
---
Uniqueness
MastersCycleSignal stands apart through a unique fusion of techniques:
- Dynamic Cycle Detection
- Detects dominant cycles using a cosine correlation maximization method between detrended price (close minus SMA) and theoretical cosine curves, dynamically recalibrated across a sliding window.
- Sine Wave Future Projection
- Smooths and projects future price paths by approximating a forward sine wave based on the real-time detected dominant cycle.
- Adaptive Momentum Filtering
- Volatility is scaled by divergence between normalized returns and a 5-period EMA, further adjusted by an RSI(2) factor.
- This makes buy/sell signal confirmation robust against noise and false breakouts.
- Gann-Based Target Computation
- Uses a square-root transformation of price, incremented by selectable Gann Square of 9 degrees, for calculating progressive and dynamically expanding price targets.
- Auto-Extending Targets
- As price achieves a projected target, the system automatically draws subsequent new targets based on the prior target differential — providing continuous guidance in trending conditions.
---
Usefulness
MastersCycleSignal is built to help traders:
- Identify early trend reversals through cycle shifts.
- Forecast probable price paths in advance.
- Plan systematic target and stop-loss zones with geometric accuracy.
- Reduce guesswork in trend-following and swing trading.
- Maintain structured discipline across intraday, swing, and positional strategies.
It works seamlessly across stocks, indices, forex, commodities, and crypto markets — on any timeframe.
---
How to Use
- Attach the indicator to your desired chart.
- When a Buy Signal or Sell Signal appears (green or red markers):
- Use the attached stop-loss labels to manage risk.
- Monitor the automatically plotted target lines for partial exits or full profits.
- The orange projected sine wave illustrates the expected future market path.
- Customization Options:
- Cycle Detection Length — adjust to fine-tune cycle sensitivity.
- Projection Length — modify the forward distance of sine wave forecast.
- Gann Square of 9 Degrees — personalize target increments.
- Toggle Signals and Target visibility as needed.
---
Disclaimer
- MastersCycleSignal uses no future data or lookahead bias.
- All projections are based on geometric extrapolations from historical price action — not guaranteed predictions.
- Trading involves risks, and historical cycle behavior may differ in future conditions.
