EMA RSI Trend Reversal Ver.1Overview:
The EMA RSI Trend Reversal indicator combines the power of two well-known technical indicators—Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—to identify potential trend reversal points in the market. The strategy looks for key crossovers between the fast and slow EMAs, and uses the RSI to confirm the strength of the trend. This combination helps to avoid false signals during sideways market conditions.
How It Works:
Buy Signal:
The Fast EMA (9) crosses above the Slow EMA (21), indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
The RSI is above 50, confirming strong bullish momentum.
Visual Signal: A green arrow below the price bar and a Buy label are plotted on the chart.
Sell Signal:
The Fast EMA (9) crosses below the Slow EMA (21), indicating a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
The RSI is below 50, confirming weak or bearish momentum.
Visual Signal: A red arrow above the price bar and a Sell label are plotted on the chart.
Key Features:
EMA Crossovers: The Fast EMA crossing above the Slow EMA signals potential buying opportunities, while the Fast EMA crossing below the Slow EMA signals potential selling opportunities.
RSI Confirmation: The RSI helps confirm trend strength—values above 50 indicate bullish momentum, while values below 50 indicate bearish momentum.
Visual Cues: The strategy uses green arrows and red arrows along with Buy and Sell labels for clear visual signals of when to enter or exit trades.
Signal Interpretation:
Green Arrow / Buy Label: The Fast EMA (9) has crossed above the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is above 50. This is a signal to buy or enter a long position.
Red Arrow / Sell Label: The Fast EMA (9) has crossed below the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is below 50. This is a signal to sell or exit the long position.
Strategy Settings:
Fast EMA Length: Set to 9 (this determines how sensitive the fast EMA is to recent price movements).
Slow EMA Length: Set to 21 (this smooths out price movements to identify the broader trend).
RSI Length: Set to 14 (default setting to track momentum strength).
RSI Level: Set to 50 (used to confirm the strength of the trend—above 50 for buy signals, below 50 for sell signals).
Risk Management (Optional):
Use take profit and stop loss based on your preferred risk-to-reward ratio. For example, you can set a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio (2x take profit for every 1x stop loss).
Backtesting and Optimization:
Backtest the strategy on TradingView by opening the Strategy Tester tab. This will allow you to see how the strategy would have performed on historical data.
Optimization: Adjust the EMA lengths, RSI period, and risk-to-reward settings based on your asset and time frame.
Limitations:
False Signals in Sideways Markets: Like any trend-following strategy, this indicator may generate false signals during periods of low volatility or sideways movement.
Not Suitable for All Market Conditions: This indicator performs best in trending markets. It may underperform in choppy or range-bound markets.
Strategy Example:
XRP/USD Example:
If you're trading XRP/USD and the Fast EMA (9) crosses above the Slow EMA (21), while the RSI is above 50, the indicator will signal a Buy.
Conversely, if the Fast EMA (9) crosses below the Slow EMA (21), and the RSI is below 50, the indicator will signal a Sell.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD):
On the BTC/USD chart, when the indicator shows a green arrow and a Buy label, it’s signaling a potential long entry. Similarly, a red arrow and Sell label indicate a short entry or exit from a previous long position.
Summary:
The EMA RSI Trend Reversal Indicator helps traders identify potential trend reversals with clear buy and sell signals based on the EMA crossovers and RSI confirmations. By using green arrows and red arrows, along with Buy and Sell labels, this strategy offers easy-to-understand visual signals for entering and exiting trades. Combine this with effective risk management and backtesting to optimize your trading performance.
ابحث في النصوص البرمجية عن "bitcoin"
Relative StrengthThis strategy employs a custom "strength" function to assess the relative strength of a user-defined source (e.g., closing price, moving average) compared to its historical performance over various timeframes (8, 34, 20, 50, and 200 periods). The strength is calculated as a percentage change from an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for shorter timeframes and a Simple Moving Average (SMA) for longer timeframes. Weights are then assigned to each timeframe based on a logarithmic scale, and a weighted average strength is computed.
Key Features:
Strength Calculation:
Calculates the relative strength of the source using EMAs and SMAs over various timeframes.
Assigns weights to each timeframe based on a logarithmic scale, emphasizing shorter timeframes.
Calculates a weighted average strength for a comprehensive view.
Visualizations:
Plots the calculated strength as a line, colored green for positive strength and red for negative strength.
Fills the background area below the line with green for positive strength and red for negative strength, enhancing visualization.
Comparative Analysis:
Optionally displays the strength of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) for comparison with the main source strength.
Backtesting:
Allows users to specify a start and end time for backtesting the strategy's performance.
Trading Signals:
Generates buy signals when the strength turns positive from negative and vice versa for sell signals.
Entry and exit are conditional on the backtesting time range.
Basic buy and sell signal plots are commented out (can be uncommented for visual representation).
Risk Management:
Closes all open positions and cancels pending orders outside the backtesting time range.
Disclaimer:
Backtesting results do not guarantee future performance. This strategy is for educational purposes only and should be thoroughly tested and refined before risking capital.
Additional Notes:
- The strategy uses a custom "strength" function that can be further customized to explore different timeframes and weighting schemes.
- Consider incorporating additional technical indicators or filters to refine the entry and exit signals.
- Backtesting with different parameters and market conditions is crucial for evaluating the strategy's robustness.
Pi Cycle MACD Inverse OscillatorPi Cycle MACD Inverse Oscillator with Gradient and Days Since Last Top
This indicator is ideal for Bitcoin traders seeking a robust tool to visualize long-term and short-term trends with enhanced clarity and actionable insights.
This script combines the concept of the Pi Cycle indicator with a unique MACD-based inverse oscillator to analyze Bitcoin market trends. It introduces several features to help traders understand market conditions better:
Inverse Oscillator:
- Oscillator ranges between 1 and -1.
- A value of 1 indicates the two moving averages (350 MA and 111 MA) are equal.
- A value of -1 indicates the maximum observed distance between the moving averages during the selected lookback period.
- The oscillator dynamically adjusts to price changes using a configurable scaling factor.
Gradient Visualization:
The oscillator line transitions smoothly from green (closer to -1) to yellow (at 0) and red (closer to 1).
The color gradient provides a quick visual cue for market momentum.
Days Since Last Pi Cycle Top:
Calculates and displays the number of days since the last "Pi Cycle Top" (defined as a crossover between the two moving averages).
The label updates dynamically and appears only on the most recent bar.
Conditional Fill:
Highlights the area between 0 and 1 with a green gradient when the price is above the long moving average.
Enhances visual understanding of the oscillator's position relative to key thresholds.
Inputs:
- Long Moving Average (350 default): Determines the primary trend.
- Short Moving Average (111 default): Measures shorter-term momentum.
- Oscillator Lookback Period (100 default): Defines the range for normalizing the oscillator.
- Price Scaling Factor (0.01 default): Adjusts the normalization to account for large price fluctuations.
How to Use:
- Use the oscillator to identify potential reversal points and trend momentum.
- Look for transitions in the gradient color and the position relative to 0.
- Monitor the "Days Since Last Top" label for insights into the market's cycle timing.
- Utilize the conditional fill to quickly assess when the market is in a favorable position above the long moving average.
Crypto Price Volatility Range# Cryptocurrency Price Volatility Range Indicator
This TradingView indicator is a visualization tool for tracking historical volatility across multiple major cryptocurrencies.
## Features
- Real-time volatility tracking for 14 major cryptocurrencies
- Customizable period and standard deviation multiplier
- Individual color coding for each currency pair
- Optional labels showing current volatility values in percentage
## Supported Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Dogecoin (DOGE)
- Hype (HYPE)
- Ripple (XRP)
- Binance Coin (BNB)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Tron (TRX)
- Chainlink (LINK)
- Shiba Inu (SHIB)
- Toncoin (TON)
- Sui (SUI)
- Stellar (XLM)
## Settings
- **Period**: Timeframe for volatility calculation (default: 20)
- **Standard Deviation Multiplier**: Multiplier for standard deviation (default: 1.0)
- **Show Labels**: Toggle label display on/off
## Calculation Method
The indicator calculates volatility using the following method:
1. Calculate daily logarithmic returns
2. Compute standard deviation over the specified period
3. Annualize (multiply by √252)
4. Convert to percentage (×100)
## Usage
1. Add the indicator to your TradingView chart
2. Adjust parameters as needed
3. Monitor volatility lines for each cryptocurrency
4. Enable labels to see precise current volatility values
## Notes
- This indicator displays in a separate window, not as an overlay
- Volatility values are annualized
- Data for each currency pair is sourced from USD pairs
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones🟩 Fibonacci Time-Price Zones is a chart visualization tool that combines Fibonacci ratios with time-based and price-based geometry to analyze market behavior. Unlike typical Fibonacci indicators that focus solely on horizontal price levels, this indicator incorporates time into the analysis, providing a more dynamic perspective on price action.
The indicator offers multiple ways to visualize Fibonacci relationships. Drawing segmented circles creates a unique perspective on price action by incorporating time into the analysis. These segmented circles, similar to TradingView's built-in Fibonacci Circles, are derived from Fibonacci time and price levels, allowing traders to identify potential turning points based on the dynamic interaction between price and time.
As another distinct visualization method, the indicator incorporates orthogonal patterns, created by the intersection of horizontal and vertical Fibonacci levels. These intersections form L-shaped connections on the chart, derived from key Fibonacci price and time intervals, highlighting potential areas of support or resistance at specific points in time.
In addition to these geometric approaches, another option is sloped lines, which project Fibonacci levels that account for both time and price along the trendline. These projections derive their angles from the interplay between Fibonacci price levels and Fibonacci time intervals, creating dynamic zones on the chart. The slope of these lines reflects the direction and angle of the trend, providing a visual representation of price alignment with market direction, while maintaining the time-price relationship unique to this indicator
The indicator also includes horizontal Fibonacci levels similar to traditional retracement and extension tools. However, unlike standard tools, traders can display retracement levels, extension levels, or both simultaneously from a single instance of the indicator. These horizontal levels maintain consistency with the chosen visualization method, automatically scaling and adapting whether used with circles, orthogonal patterns, or slope-based analysis.
By combining these distinct methods—circles, orthogonal patterns, sloped projections, and horizontal levels—the indicator provides a comprehensive approach to Fibonacci analysis based on both time and price relationships. Each visualization method offers a unique perspective on market structure while maintaining the core principle of time-price interaction.
⭕ THEORY AND CONCEPT ⭕
While traditional Fibonacci tools excel at identifying potential support and resistance levels through price-based ratios (0.236, 0.382, 0.618), they do not incorporate the dimension of time in market analysis. Extensions and retracements effectively measure price relationships within trends, yet markets move through both price and time dimensions simultaneously.
Fibonacci circles represent an evolution in technical analysis by incorporating time intervals alongside price levels. Based on the mathematical principle that markets often move in circular patterns proportional to Fibonacci ratios, these circles project potential support and resistance zones as partial circles radiating from significant price points. However, traditional circle-based tools can create visual complexity that obscures key market relationships. The integration of time into Fibonacci analysis reveals how price movements often respect both temporal and price-based ratios, suggesting a deeper geometric structure to market behavior.
The Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator advances these concepts by providing multiple geometric approaches to visualize time-price relationships. Each shape option—circles, orthogonal patterns, slopes, and horizontal levels—represents a different mathematical perspective on how Fibonacci ratios manifest across both dimensions. This multi-faceted approach allows traders to observe how price responds to Fibonacci-based zones that account for both time and price movements, potentially revealing market structure that purely price-based tools might miss.
Shape Options
The indicator employs four distinct geometric approaches to analyze Fibonacci relationships across time and price dimensions:
Circular : Represents the cyclical nature of market movements through partial circles, where each radius is scaled by Fibonacci ratios incorporating both time and price components. This geometry suggests market movements may follow proportional circular paths from significant pivot points, reflecting the harmonic relationship between time and price.
Orthogonal : Constructs L-shaped patterns that separate the time and price components of Fibonacci relationships. The horizontal component represents price levels, while the vertical component measures time intervals, allowing analysis of how these dimensions interact independently at key market points.
Sloped : Projects Fibonacci levels along the prevailing trend, incorporating both time and price in the angle of projection. This approach suggests that support and resistance levels may maintain their relationship to price while adjusting to the temporal flow of the market.
Horizontal : Provides traditional static Fibonacci levels that serve as a reference point for comparing price-only analysis with the dynamic time-price relationships shown in the other three shapes. This baseline approach allows traders to evaluate how the incorporation of time dimension enhances or modifies traditional Fibonacci analysis.
By combining these geometric approaches, the Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator creates a comprehensive analytical framework that bridges traditional and advanced Fibonacci analysis. The horizontal levels serve as familiar reference points, while the dynamic elements—circular, orthogonal, and sloped projections—reveal how price action responds to temporal relationships. This multi-dimensional approach enables traders to study market structure through various geometric lenses, providing deeper insights into time-price symmetry within technical analysis. Whether applied to retracements, extensions, or trend analysis, the indicator offers a structured methodology for understanding how markets move through both price and time dimensions.
🛠️ CONFIGURATION AND SETTINGS 🛠️
The Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator offers a range of configurable settings to tailor its functionality and visual representation to your specific analysis needs. These options allow you to customize zone visibility, structures, horizontal lines, and other features.
Important Note: The indicator's calculations are anchored to user-defined start and end points on the chart. When switching between charts with significantly different price scales (e.g., from Bitcoin at $100,000 to Silver at $30), adjustment of these anchor points is required to ensure correct positioning of the Fibonacci elements.
Fibonacci Levels
The indicator allows users to customize Fibonacci levels for both retracement and extension analysis. Each level can be individually configured with the following options:
Visibility : Toggle the visibility of each level to focus on specific areas of interest.
Level Value : Set the Fibonacci ratio for the level, such as 0.618 or 1.000, to align with your analysis needs.
Color : Customize the color of each level for better visual clarity.
Line Thickness : Adjust the line thickness to emphasize critical levels or maintain a cleaner chart.
Setup
Zone Type : Select which Fibonacci zones to display:
- Retracement : Shows potential pull back levels within the trend
- Extension : Projects levels beyond the trend for potential continuation targets
- Both : Displays both retracement and extension zones simultaneously
Shape : Choose from four visualization methods:
- Circular : Time-price based semicircles centered on point B
- Orthogonal : L-shaped patterns combining time and price levels
- Sloped : Trend-aligned projections of Fibonacci levels
- Horizontal : Traditional horizontal Fibonacci levels
Visual Settings
Fill % : Adjusts the fill intensity of zones:
0% : No fill between levels
100% : Maximum fill between levels
Lines :
Trendline : The base A-B trend with customizable color
Extension : B-C projection line
Retracement : B-D pullback line
Labels :
Points : Show/hide A, B, C, D markers
Levels : Show/hide Fibonacci percentages
Time-Price Points
Set the time and price for the points that define the Fibonacci zones and horizontal levels. These points are defined upon loading the chart. These points can be configured directly in the settings or adjusted interactively on the live chart.
A and B Points : These user-defined time and price points determine the basis for calculating the semicircles and Fibonacci levels. While the settings panel displays their exact values for fine-tuning, the easiest way to modify these points is by dragging them directly on the chart for quick adjustments.
Interactive Adjustments : Any changes made to the points on the chart will automatically synchronize with the settings panel, ensuring consistency and precision.
🖼️ CHART EXAMPLES 🖼️
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Circular' Shape option. Note the price interaction at the 0.786 level, which acts as a support zone. Additional points of interest include resistance near the 0.618 level and consolidation around the 0.5 level, highlighting the utility of both horizontal and semicircular Fibonacci projections in identifying key price areas.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Sloped' Shape option. The chart displays price retracing along the sloped Fibonacci levels, with blue arrows highlighting potential support zones at 0.618 and 0.786, and a red arrow indicating potential resistance at the 1.0 level. This visual representation aligns with the prevailing downtrend, suggesting potential selling pressure at the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Orthogonal' Shape option. The chart demonstrates price action interacting with vertical zones created by the orthogonal lines at the 0.618, 0.786, and 1.0 Fibonacci levels. Blue arrows highlight potential support areas, while red arrows indicate potential resistance areas, revealing how the orthogonal lines can identify distinct points of price interaction.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Circular' Shape option. The chart displays price action in relation to segmented circles emanating from the starting point (point A). The circles represent different Fibonacci ratios (0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786) and their intersections with the price axis create potential zones of support and resistance. This approach offers a visually distinct way to analyze potential turning points based on both price and time.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Sloped' Shape option. The sloped Fibonacci levels (0.786, 0.618, 0.5) create zones of potential support and resistance, with price finding clear interaction within these areas. The ellipses highlight this price action, particularly the support between 0.786 and 0.618, which aligns closely with the trend.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Circular' Shape option. The price action appears to be ‘hugging’ the 0.5 Fibonacci level, suggesting potential resistance. This demonstrates how the circular zones can identify potential turning points and areas of consolidation which might not be seen with linear analysis.
Fibonacci Time-Price Zones using the 'Sloped' Shape option with Point D marker enabled. The chart demonstrates clear price action closely following along the sloped Retracement line until the orthogonal intersection at the 0.618 levels where the trend is broken and price dips throughout the 0.618 to 0.786 horizontal zone. Price jumps back to the retracement slope at the start of the 0.786 horizontal zone and continues to the 1.0 horizontal zone. The aqua-colored retracement line is enabled to further emphasize this retracement slope .
Geometric validation using TradingView's built-in Fibonacci Circle tool (overlaid). The alignment at the 0.5 and 1.0 levels demonstrates the indicator's consistent approximation of Fibonacci Circles.
Comparison of Fibonacci Time-Price Zones (Shape: Horizontal) with TradingView's Built-in Retracement and Extension Tools (overlaid): This example demonstrates how the Horizontal structure aligns with TradingView’s retracement and extension levels, allowing users to integrate multiple tools seamlessly. The Fibonacci circle connects retracement and extension zones, highlighting the potential relationship between past retracements and future extensions.
📐 GEOMETRIC FOUNDATIONS 📐
This indicator integrates circular and straight representations of Fibonacci levels, specifically the Circular , Orthogonal , Sloped , and Horizontal shape options. The geometric principles behind these shapes differ significantly, requiring distinct scaling methods for accurate representation. The Circular shape employs logarithmic scaling with radial expansion, where the distance from a central point determines the level's position, creating partial circles that align with TradingView's built-in Fibonacci Circle tool. The other three shapes utilize geometric progression scaling for linear extension from a starting point, resulting in straight lines that align with TradingView's built-in Fibonacci retracement and extension tools. Due to these distinct geometric foundations and scaling methods, perfectly aligning both the partial circles and straight lines simultaneously is mathematically constrained, though any differences are typically visually imperceptible.
The Circular shape's partial circles are calculated and scaled to align with TradingView's built-in Fibonacci Circles. These circles are plotted from the second swing point onward. This approach ensures consistent and accurate visualization across all market types, including those with gaps or closed sessions, which unlike 24/7 markets, do not have a direct one-to-one correspondence between bar indices and time. To maintain accurate geometric proportions across varying chart scales, the indicator calculates an aspect ratio by normalizing the proportional difference between vertical (price) and horizontal (time) distances of the swing points. This normalization factor ensures geometric shapes maintain their mathematical properties regardless of price scale magnitude or time period span, while maintaining the correct proportions of the geometric constructions at any chart zoom level.
The indicator automatically applies the appropriate scaling factor based on the selected shape option, optimizing either circular proportions and proper radius calculations for each Fibonacci level, or straight-line relationships between Fibonacci levels. These distinct scaling approaches maintain mathematical integrity while preserving the essential characteristics of each geometric representation, ensuring optimal visualization accuracy whether using circular or linear shapes.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator is a visual analysis tool designed to illustrate Fibonacci relationships through geometric constructions incorporating both curved and straight lines, providing a structured framework for identifying potential areas of price interaction. It is not intended as a predictive or standalone trading signal indicator.
The indicator calculates levels and projections using user-defined anchor points and Fibonacci ratios. While it aims to align with TradingView’s Fibonacci extension, retracement, and circle tools by employing mathematical and geometric formulas, no guarantee is made that its calculations are identical to TradingView's proprietary methods.
Like all technical and visual indicators, these visual representations may visually align with key price zones in hindsight, reflecting observed price dynamics. However, these visualizations are not standalone signals for trading decisions and should be interpreted as part of a broader analytical approach.
This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes, complementing other tools and methods of market analysis. Users are encouraged to integrate it into a comprehensive trading strategy, customizing its settings to suit their specific needs and market conditions.
🧠 BEYOND THE CODE 🧠
The Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator is designed to encourage both education and community engagement. By integrating time-sensitive geometry with Fibonacci-based frameworks, it bridges traditional grid-based analysis with dynamic time-price relationships. The inclusion of semicircles, horizontal levels, orthogonal structures, and sloped trends provides users with versatile tools to explore the interaction between price movements and temporal intervals while maintaining clarity and adaptability.
As an open-source tool, the indicator invites exploration, experimentation, and customization. Whether used as a standalone resource or alongside other technical strategies, it serves as a practical and educational framework for understanding market structure and Fibonacci relationships in greater depth.
Your feedback and contributions are essential to refining and enhancing the Fibonacci Time-Price Zones indicator. We look forward to the creative applications, adaptations, and insights this tool inspires within the trading community.
Swing High/Low Pivots Strategy [LV]The Swing High/Low Pivots Strategy was developed as a counter-momentum trading tool.
The strategy is suitable for any market and the default values used in the input settings menu are set for Bitcoin (best on 15min). These values, expressed in minimum ticks (or pips if symbol is Forex) make this tool perfectly adaptable to every symbol and/or timeframe.
Check tooltips in the settings menu for more details about every user input.
STRTEGY ENTRY & EXIT MECHANISMS:
Trades Entry based on the detection of swing highs and lows for short and long entries respectively, validated by:
- Limit orders placed after each new pivot level confirmation
- Moving averages trend filter (if enabled)
- No active trade currently open
Trades Exit when the price reaches take-profit or stop-loss level as defined in the settings menu. A double entry/second take-profit level can be enabled for partial exits, with dynamic stop-loss adjustment for the remaining position.
Enhanced Trade Precision:
By limiting entries to confirmed swing high (HH, LH) or swing low (HL, LL) pivot points, the strategy ensures that trades occur at levels of significant price reversals. This precision reduces the likelihood of entering trades in the midst of a trend or during uncertain price action.
Risk Management Optimization:
The strategy incorporates clearly defined stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels derived from the pivot points. This structured approach minimizes potential losses while locking in profits, which is critical for consistent performance in volatile markets.
Trend Filtering for Better Entry:
The use of a configurable moving average filter adds a layer of trend validation. This prevents entering trades against the dominant market trend, increasing the probability of success for each trade.
Avoidance of Noise:
The lookback period (length parameter) confirms pivots only after a set number of bars, effectively filtering out market noise and ensuring that entries are based on reliable, well-defined price movements.
Adaptability Across Markets:
The strategy is versatile and can be applied across different markets (Forex, stocks, crypto) due to its dynamic use of ticks and pips converters. It adapts seamlessly to varying price scales and asset types.
Dual Quantity Entries:
The original and optionnal double-entry mechanism allows traders to capture both short-term and extended profits by scaling out of positions. This adaptive approach caters to varying risk appetites and market conditions.
Clear Visualization:
The plotted pivot points, entry limits, SL, and TP levels provide visual clarity, making it easy for traders to track the strategy's behavior and make informed decisions.
Automated Execution with Alerts:
Integrated alerts for both entries and exits ensure timely actions without the need for constant market monitoring, enhancing efficiency. Configurable alert messages are suitable for API use.
Any feedback, comments, or suggestions for improvement are always welcome.
Hope you enjoy!
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Overview of the Script
I wanted to write a script that encompasses the wide-spread macro fund manager investment thesis: "Crypto is simply and expression of macro." A thesis pioneered by the likes of Raoul Pal (EXPAAM) , Andreesen Horowitz (A16Z) , Joe McCann (ASYMETRIC) , Bob Loukas and many more.
Cycle Theory Background:
The 2007-2008 financial crisis transformed central bank monetary policy by introducing:
- Quantitative Easing (QE): Creating money to buy assets and inject liquidity
- Coordinated global monetary interventions
Proactive 4-year economic cycles characterised by:
- Expansionary periods (low rates, money creation)
- Followed by contraction/normalisation
Central banks now deliberately manipulate liquidity, interest rates, and asset prices to control economic cycles, using monetary policy as a precision tool rather than a blunt instrument.
Cycle Characteristics (based on historical cycles):
- A cycle has 4 seasons (Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)
- Each season with a cycle lasts 365 days
- The Cycle Low happens towards the beginning of the Spring Season of each new cycle
- This is followed by a run up throughout the Spring and Summer Season
- The Cycle High happens towards the end of the Fall Season
- The Winter season is characterised by price corrections until establishing a new floor in the Spring of the next cycle
Key Functionalities
1. Cycle Tracking
- Divides market history into 4-year cycles (Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)
- Starts tracking cycles from 2011 (first cycle after the 2007 crisis cycle)
- Identifies and marks cycle boundaries
2. Visualization
- Colors background based on current cycle season
- Draws lines connecting:
- Cycle highs and lows
- Inter-cycle price movements
- Adds labels showing:
- Percentage gains/losses between cycles
- Number of days between significant points
3. Customization Options
- Allows users to customize:
- Colors for each season
- Line and label colors
- Label size
- Background opacity
Detailed Mechanism
Cycle Identification
- Uses a modulo calculation to determine the current season in the 4-year cycle
- Preset boundary years include 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027
- Automatically tracks and marks cycle transitions
Price Analysis
- Tracks highest and lowest prices within each cycle
- Calculates percentage changes:
- Intra-cycle (low to high)
- Inter-cycle (previous high to current high/low)
Visualization Techniques
- Background color changes based on current cycle season
- Dashed and solid lines connect significant price points
- Labels provide quantitative insights about price movements
Unique Aspects
1. Predictive Cycle Framework: Provides a structured way to view market movements beyond traditional technical analysis
2. Seasonal Color Coding: Intuitive visual representation of market cycle stages
3. Comprehensive Price Tracking: Captures both intra-cycle and inter-cycle price dynamics
4. Highly Customizable: Users can adjust visual parameters to suit their preferences
Potential Use Cases
- Technical analysis for long-term investors
- Identifying market cycle patterns
- Understanding historical price movement rhythms
- Educational tool for market cycle theory
Limitations/Considerations
- Based on a predefined 4-year cycle model (Liquidity Cycles)
- Historic Cycle Structures are not an indication for future performance
- May not perfectly represent all market behavior
- Requires visual interpretation
This script is particularly interesting for investors who believe in cyclical market theories and want a visual, data-driven representation of market stages.
Momentum Matrix (BTC-COIN)The Momentum Matrix (BTC-COIN) indicator analyzes the momentum relationship between Coinbase stock ( NASDAQ:COIN ) and Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ). By combining RSI, correlation, and dominance metrics, it identifies bullish and bearish macro trends to align trades with market momentum.
How It Works
Price Inputs: Pulls weekly price data for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and NASDAQ:COIN for macro analysis.
Metrics Calculated:
• RSI Divergence: Measures momentum differences between CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $COIN.
• Price Ratio: Tracks the $COIN/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC relationship relative to its long-term average (SMA).
• Correlation: Analyzes price co-movement between CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $COIN.
• Dominance Impact: Incorporates CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance for broader crypto trends.
Composite Momentum Score: Combines these metrics into a smoothed macro momentum value.
Thresholds for Trend Detection: Upper and lower thresholds dynamically adapt to market conditions.
Signals and Visualization:
• Buy Signal: Momentum exceeds the upper threshold, indicating bullish trends.
• Sell Signal: Momentum falls below the lower threshold, indicating bearish trends.
• Background Colors: Green (bullish), Red (bearish).
Strengths
Integrates multiple metrics for robust macro analysis.
Dynamic thresholds adapt to market conditions.
Effective for identifying macro momentum shifts.
Limitations
Lag in high volatility due to smoothing.
Less effective in choppy, sideways markets.
Assumes CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance drives NASDAQ:COIN momentum, which may not always hold true.
Improvements
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Add daily or monthly data for precision.
Volume Filters: Include volume thresholds for signal validation.
Additional Metrics: Consider MACD or Stochastics for further confirmation.
Complementary Tools
Volume Indicators: OBV or cumulative delta for confirmation.
Trend-Following Systems: Pair with moving averages for timing.
Market Breadth Metrics: Combine with CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance trends for context.
COIN/BTC Trend OscillatorThe COIN/BTC Trend Oscillator is a versatile tool designed to measure and visualize momentum divergences between Coinbase stock ( NASDAQ:COIN ) and Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ). It helps identify overbought and oversold conditions, while also highlighting potential trend reversals.
Key Features:
VWAP-Based Divergence Analysis:
• Tracks the difference between NASDAQ:COIN and CRYPTOCAP:BTC relative to their respective VWAPs.
• Highlights shifts in momentum between the two assets.
Normalized Oscillator:
• Uses ATR normalization to adapt to different volatility conditions.
• Displays momentum shifts on a standardized scale for better comparability.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions:
• Identifies extremes using customizable thresholds (default: ±80).
• Dynamic background colors for quick visual identification:
• Blue for overbought zones (potential sell).
• White for oversold zones (potential buy).
Rolling Highs and Lows Detection:
• Tracks turning points in the oscillator to identify possible trend reversals.
• Useful for spotting exhaustion or accumulation phases.
Use Case:
This indicator is ideal for trading Coinbase stock relative to Bitcoin’s momentum. It’s especially useful during strong market trends, helping traders time entries and exits based on extremes in relative performance.
Limitations:
• Performance may degrade in choppy or sideways markets.
• Assumes a strong correlation between NASDAQ:COIN and CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which may not hold during independent events.
Pro Tip: Use this oscillator with broader trend confirmation tools like moving averages or RSI to improve reliability. For macro strategies, consider combining with higher timeframes for alignment.
Spread Analysis (COIN/BTC)The Spread Analysis (COIN/BTC) indicator calculates the Z-score of the price ratio between Coinbase stock ( NASDAQ:COIN ) and Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ). It helps identify overbought or oversold conditions based on deviations from the historical mean of their price relationship.
Key Features:
Z-Score Calculation:
• Tracks the relative price ratio of NASDAQ:COIN to $BTC.
• Compares the current ratio to its historical average, highlighting extreme overvaluation or undervaluation.
• Buy and Sell Signals:
• Buy Signal: Triggered when the Z-score is less than -2, indicating NASDAQ:COIN may be undervalued relative to $BTC.
• Sell Signal: Triggered when the Z-score exceeds 2, suggesting NASDAQ:COIN may be overvalued relative to $BTC.
• Dynamic Z-Score Visualization:
• Blue line plots the Z-score over time.
• Dashed lines at +2 and -2 mark overbought and oversold thresholds.
• Green and red triangles highlight actionable buy and sell signals.
Use Case:
This indicator is ideal for identifying relative valuation opportunities between NASDAQ:COIN and $BTC. Use it to exploit divergences in their historical relationship and anticipate potential reversions to the mean.
Limitations:
• Best suited for range-bound markets; may produce false signals in strongly trending conditions.
• Assumes a consistent correlation between NASDAQ:COIN and CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which may break during independent price drivers like news or earnings.
BTC/USDT Volume-Based StrategyOverview
There is a distinct difference between the buying pressure exerted by individual investors and the buying pressure of institutional or "whale" traders. Monitoring volume data over a shorter period of time is crucial to distinguish these subtle differences. When whale investors or other significant market players signal price increases, volume often surges noticeably. Indeed, volume often acts as an important leading indicator in market dynamics.
Key Features
This metric, calibrated with a 5-minute Bitcoin spot chart, identifies a significant inflow of trading volume. For every K-plus surge in trading volume, those candles are shown in a green circle.
When a green circle appears, consider active long positions in subsequent declines and continue to accumulate long positions despite temporary price declines. Pay attention to the continuity of the increase in volume before locking in earnings even after the initial bullish wave.
Conversely, it may be wise to reevaluate the long position if the volume is not increasing in parallel and the price is rising. Under these conditions, starting a partial short position may be advantageous until a larger surge in volume reappears.
Overnight Effect High Volatility Crypto (AiBitcoinTrend)👽 Overview of the Strategy
This strategy leverages the overnight effect in the cryptocurrency market, specifically targeting the two-hour window from 21:00 UTC to 23:00 UTC. The strategy is designed to be applied only during periods of high volatility, which is determined using historical volatility data. This approach, inspired by research from Padyšák and Vojtko (2022), aims to capitalize on statistically significant return patterns observed during these hours.
Deep Backtesting with a High Volatility Filter
Deep Backtesting without a High Volatility Filter
👽 How the Strategy Works
Volatility Calculation:
Each day at 00:00 UTC, the strategy calculates the 30-day historical volatility of crypto returns (typically Bitcoin). The historical volatility is the standard deviation of the log returns over the past 30 days, representing the market's recent volatility level.
Median Volatility Benchmark:
The median of the 30-day historical volatility is calculated over a 365-day period (one year). This median acts as a benchmark to classify each day as either:
👾 High Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility exceeds the median volatility.
👾 Low Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility is below the median.
Trading Rule:
If the day is classified as a High Volatility Day, the strategy executes the following trades:
👾 Buy at 21:00 UTC.
👾 Sell at 23:00 UTC.
Trade Execution Details:
The strategy uses a 0.02% fee per trade.
Each trade is executed with 25% of the available capital. This allocation helps manage risk while allowing for compounding returns.
Rationale:
The returns during the 22:00 and 23:00 UTC hours have been found to be statistically significant during high volatility periods. The overnight effect is believed to drive this phenomenon due to the asynchronous closing hours of global financial markets. This creates unique trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, where exchanges remain open 24/7.
👽 Market Context and Global Time Zone Impact
👾 Why 21:00 to 23:00 UTC?
During this window, major traditional financial markets are closed:
NYSE (New York) closes at 21:00 UTC.
London and European markets are closed during these hours.
Asian markets (Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.) open later, leaving this window largely unaffected by traditional trading flows.
This global market inactivity creates a period where significant moves can occur in the cryptocurrency market, particularly during high volatility.
👽 Strategy Parameters
Volatility Period: 30 days.
The lookback period for calculating historical volatility.
Median Period: 365 days.
The lookback period for calculating the median volatility benchmark.
Entry Time: 21:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 16:00 in New York, 22:00 in Stockholm).
Exit Time: 23:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 18:00 in New York, 00:00 midnight in Stockholm).
👽 Benefits of the Strategy
Seasonality Effect:
The strategy captures consistent patterns driven by the overnight effect and high volatility periods.
Risk Reduction:
Since trades are executed during a specific window and only on high volatility days, the strategy helps mitigate exposure to broader market risk.
Simplicity and Efficiency:
The strategy is moderately complex, making it accessible for traders while offering significant returns.
Global Applicability:
Suitable for traders worldwide, with clear guidelines on adjusting for local time zones.
👽 Considerations
Market Conditions: The strategy works best in a high-volatility environment.
Execution: Requires precise timing to enter and exit trades at the specified hours.
Time Zone Adjustments: Ensure you convert UTC times accurately based on your location to execute trades at the correct local times.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Stablecoin Delta [SAKANE]Overview
Stablecoin Delta is an indicator designed to provide a detailed analysis of the market trends of major stablecoins (USDT and USDC). Stablecoins play a crucial role in supporting the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, and fluctuations in their supply significantly impact the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
This indicator leverages data from CryptoCap to visualize the daily changes in the market capitalization of stablecoins. Traders can use this tool to understand the effects of stablecoin supply fluctuations on the market in a timely manner, enabling more strategic investment decisions.
The key benefits include the ability to quickly monitor stablecoin supply changes, utilize this data as a supplementary tool for predicting Bitcoin price movements, and identify both short-term market movements and long-term trends. This indicator is valuable for traders of all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.
Features
- Support for USDT and USDC Market Cap
Monitor the market trends of these two major stablecoins using data from CryptoCap. Users can also choose to analyze only one of them.
- Daily Net Change Calculation
Calculates the daily change in market capitalization compared to the previous day, providing a clear view of trends.
- Flexible Smoothing Options
Apply either SMA or EMA smoothing for both the histogram and the line chart, based on user preference.
- Customizable Colors
Customize the colors for the histogram (positive/negative) and line chart for better visualization.
Visualization
- Histogram
Displays daily net changes as a histogram, with positive changes (green) and negative changes (red) clearly differentiated.
- Smoothed Line Chart
Provides a smoothed line chart to make trend identification easier.
Use Cases
- In-depth Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market
The supply of stablecoins is a critical factor influencing the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This indicator helps traders understand overall market liquidity, enabling more effective investment decisions.
- Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy Development
Trends derived from stablecoin supply fluctuations are essential for traders to gauge short-term price movements and long-term market flows.
- Real-Time Market Adjustment
In times of sudden market shifts, this tool enables traders to quickly assess changes in stablecoin supply and adjust their positions accordingly.
Future Plans
- Additional stablecoins will be considered for inclusion if their market share grows significantly.
Disclaimer
- This indicator relies on data from CryptoCap. The results are subject to the accuracy and timeliness of the data and should be used as reference information only.
BTC Price Percentage Difference( Bitfinex - Coinbase)Introduction:
The BTC Price Percentage Difference Histogram Indicator is a powerful tool designed to help traders visualize and capitalize on the price discrepancies of Bitcoin (BTC) between two major exchanges: Bitfinex and Coinbase. By calculating the real-time percentage difference of BTC-USD prices and displaying it as a color-coded histogram, this indicator enables you to quickly spot potential arbitrage opportunities and gain deeper insights into market dynamics.
Features:
• Real-Time Percentage Difference Calculation:
• Computes the percentage difference between BTC-USD prices on Bitfinex and Coinbase.
• Color-Coded Histogram Visualization:
• Green Bars: Indicate that the BTC price on Bitfinex is higher than on Coinbase.
• Red Bars: Indicate that the BTC price on Bitfinex is lower than on Coinbase.
• User-Friendly and Intuitive:
• Simple setup with no additional inputs required.
• Automatically adapts to the chart’s timeframe for seamless integration.
Why Bitfinex Whales Matter:
Bitfinex is renowned for hosting some of the largest Bitcoin traders, often referred to as “whales.” These influential players have the capacity to move the market, and historically, they’ve demonstrated a high success rate in buying at market bottoms and selling at market tops. By tracking the price discrepancies between Bitfinex and other exchanges like Coinbase, you can gain valuable insights into the sentiment and actions of these key market participants.
Coinbase Premium HeatmapCoinbase Premium Heatmap visualizes spot bitcoin premium (or discount) on Coinbase, relative to other spot markets, visualized as a heatmap overlay.
OPTIMIZED FOR CLARITY
Coinbase Premium can whipsaw quickly, with dramatic state changes over relatively brief periods, unnecessarily complicating its use (for our purposes).
To mitigate whipsaws, the script (a) averages premium/discount on an hourly basis, and (b) introduces lightweight exponential smoothing, to further simplify/clarify state.
WHY IT MATTERS
Spot Coinbase premium is a strong proxy for bullish institutional sentiment and net inflows/accumulation by western financial institutions, ETF providers, and corporations (like MicroStrategy) adding bitcoin to their treasury.
In aggregate, this holder cohort drives trend & sentiment more than any other, so it's important to know their directional bias.
HOW IT'S CALCULATED
Premium / discount calculates the spread between Coinbase spot BTC price, and spot price on Binance + Bybit. Calculation is averaged hourly, with light exponential smoothing.
HOW WE USE THE SCRIPT
When assessing optimal moments to hedge exposure (or sell spot assets) near a presumed impending cycle top, awareness of institutional sentiment is a crucial variable. This script:
(a) Filters out unnecessarily early cycle exit signals (if Coinbase premium is still present)
(b) Confirms other metrics that indicate an impending cycle top (if the neutral to bearish institutional sentiment we'd expect to see is in effect), and
(c) Visualizes state changes (from bearish to bullish & vice versa), that often make for good swing entries & exits on lower timeframes.
True Total Altcoin Market CapThis indicator calculates the real total altcoin market capitalization by removing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major stablecoins (USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI) from the total cryptocurrency market cap. It replaces the standard price bars with custom-colored candlesticks showing the true altcoin market movements.
Features:
Excludes BTC, ETH, and major stablecoins for accurate altcoin market analysis
Custom color scheme: Green (#26a79b) for bullish and Red (#ef5351) for bearish candles
Based on CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL data
Helps traders focus on pure altcoin market trends
Non-repainting, using standard OHLC data
This tool provides a clearer view of altcoin market strength by filtering out the influence of major cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
