Aggression Bulbs v3.1 (Sessions + Bias, fixed)EYLONAggression Bulbs v3.2 (Sessions + Bias + Volume Surge)
This indicator highlights aggressive buy and sell activity during the London and New York sessions, using volume spikes and candle body dominance to detect institutional momentum.
⚙️ Main Logic
Compares each candle’s volume vs average volume (Volume Surge).
Checks body size vs full candle range to detect strong directional moves.
Uses an EMA bias filter to align signals with the current trend.
Displays green bubbles for aggressive buyers and red bubbles for aggressive sellers.
🕐 Sessions
London: 08:00–12:59 UTC+1
New York: 14:00–18:59 UTC+1
(Backgrounds: Yellow = London, Orange = New York)
📊 How to Read
🟢 Green bubble below bar → Aggressive BUY candle (strong demand).
🔴 Red bubble above bar → Aggressive SELL candle (strong supply).
Bubble size = relative strength (volume × candle dominance).
Use in confluence with key POI zones, volume profile, or delta clusters.
⚠️ Tips
Use on 1m–15m charts for scalping or intraday analysis.
Combine with your session bias or FVG zones for higher accuracy.
Set alerts when score ≥ threshold to catch early momentum.
ابحث في النصوص البرمجية عن "demand"
Katana_Fox RSI Pro - Advanced Momentum Indicator with Clear BUOverview:
Connors RSI Pro is a sophisticated enhancement of the classic Connors RSI indicator, designed for traders who demand professional-grade tools. This premium version combines multiple momentum components with intelligent signaling and beautiful visualization to give you an edge in the markets.
Key Features:
🎯 Clear BUY/SELL Signal System
BUY signals in green when CRSI crosses above oversold level
SELL signals in red when CRSI crosses below overbought level
Clean, professional labels that are easy to read
Customizable overbought/oversold levels (70/30 default)
🎨 Professional Visualization
Modern color scheme that adapts to market conditions
Customizable background fills for better readability
Smooth, easy-to-read line plotting
⚡ Enhanced Calculations
Triple-component momentum analysis (RSI, UpDown RSI, Percent Rank)
EMA smoothing for reduced noise and false signals
Configurable lengths for each component
🔔 Advanced Alert System
4 distinct alert conditions for various market scenarios
Compatible with TradingView's native alert system
Perfect for automated trading strategies
Input Parameters:
RSI Length (3): Period for standard RSI calculation
UpDown Length (2): Period for UpDown RSI component
ROC Length (100): Period for Rate of Change percentile ranking
Signal Alerts: Toggle BUY/SELL signals on/off
Custom Colors: Choose between classic and modern color schemes
Trading Signals:
BUY (Green Label): Bullish signal when CRSI crosses above oversold level
SELL (Red Label): Bearish signal when CRSI crosses below overbought level
Background Colors: Visual zones indicating momentum strength
Ideal For:
Swing traders seeking momentum reversals
Day traders looking for overbought/oversold conditions
Algorithmic traders needing reliable signals
Technical analysts wanting multi-timeframe confirmation
How to Use:
Oversold Bounce: Enter long when CRSI shows BUY signal above 30
Overbought Rejection: Enter short when CRSI shows SELL signal below 70
Trend Confirmation: Use the 50-level crossover for trend direction
Divergence Trading: Look for price/indicator divergences at extremes
Upgrade your trading arsenal with Connors RSI Pro - where professional analytics meet clear trading signals!
No Supply (Low-Volume Down Bars) — IdoThis indicator flags classic Wyckoff/VSA “No Supply (NS)” events—down bars that print on unusually low volume, suggesting a lack of sellers rather than strong selling pressure. NS often appears near support, LPS, or within re-accumulation ranges as a test before continuation higher.
Signal definition (configurable):
Down bar: choose Close < PrevClose or Close < Open.
Low volume: Volume < SMA(Volume, len) × threshold (e.g., 0.7).
Optional volume lower than the prior two bars (reduces noise).
Optional narrow spread: range (H–L) below its average.
Optional close position: close in the upper half of the bar.
Optional trend filter: only mark NS above or below an EMA (or any).
Optional wide-bar exclusion: skip unusually wide bars.
Visuals & outputs
Blue dot below each NS bar (optional bar tint).
Separate pane showing Relative Volume (vol / volSMA) to gauge effort.
Built-in alertcondition to trigger notifications when NS prints.
Inputs (high level)
lenVol: Volume SMA length.
ratioVol: Volume threshold vs. average (e.g., 0.7 = 70%).
usePrev2: Require volume below each of the prior two bars.
useNarrow + lenRange + ratioRange: Narrow-bar filter.
useClosePos + minClosePos: Close in upper portion of the bar.
downBarMode: Define “down bar” logic.
trendFiltOn, trendLen, trendSide: EMA trend filter.
useWideFilter, lenRangeWide, wideThreshold: Skip wide bars.
How to use (Wyckoff/VSA context)
Treat NS as a test of supply: price dips, but volume is light and close holds up.
Stronger when it prints near support/LPS within a re-accumulation structure.
Confirmation (recommended): within 1–3 bars, see demand—e.g., break above the NS high with expanding volume (above average or above the prior two bars). Many traders place a buy-stop just above the NS high; common stops are below the NS low or the most recent swing low.
Scanning tip
TradingView’s stock screener can’t consume Pine directly.
Use a Watchlist Custom Column that reports “bars since NS” to sort symbols (0 = NS on the latest bar). A companion column script is provided separately.
Notes & limitations
Works on any timeframe (intraday/daily/weekly), but context matters.
Expect false positives around news, gaps, or illiquid symbols—combine with structure (trend, S/R, phases) and risk management.
© moshel — Educational use only; not financial advice.
TTM Squeeze Screener [Pineify]TTM Squeeze Screener for Multiple Crypto Assets and Timeframes
This advanced TradingView Pine script, TTM Squeeze Screener, helps traders scan multiple crypto symbols and timeframes simultaneously, unlocking new dimensions in momentum and volatility analysis.
Key Features
Screen up to 8 crypto symbols across 4 different timeframes in one pane
TTM Squeeze indicator detects volatility contraction and expansion (“squeeze”) phases
Momentum filter reveals potential breakout direction and strength
Visual screener table for intuitive multi-asset monitoring
Fully customizable for symbols and timeframes
How It Works
The heart of this screener is the TTM Squeeze algorithm—a hybrid volatility and momentum indicator leveraging Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, and linear momentum analysis. The script checks whether Bollinger Bands are “squeezed” inside Keltner Channels, flagging periods of low volatility primed for expansion. Once a squeeze is released, the included momentum calculation suggests the likely breakout direction.
For each selected symbol and timeframe, the screener runs the TTM Squeeze logic, outputs “SQUEEZE” or “NO SQZ”, and tags momentum values. A table layout organizes the results, allowing rapid pattern recognition across symbols.
Trading Ideas and Insights
Spot multi-symbol volatility clusters—ideal for finding synchronized market moves
Assess breakout potential and direction before entering trades
Scalping and swing trading decisions are enhanced by cross-timeframe momentum filtering
Portfolio managers can quickly identify which assets are about to move
How Multiple Indicators Work Together
This screener unites three essential concepts:
Bollinger Bands : Measure volatility using standard deviation of price
Keltner Channels : Define expected price range based on average true range (ATR)
Momentum : Linear regression calculation to evaluate the direction and intensity after a squeeze
By combining these, the indicator not only signals when volatility compresses and releases, but also adds directional context—filtering false signals and helping traders time entries and exits more precisely.
Unique Aspects
Multi-symbol, multi-timeframe architecture—optimized for crypto traders and market scanners
Advanced table visualization—see all signals at a glance, minimizing cognitive overload
Modular calculation functions—easy to adapt and extend for other asset classes or strategies
Real-time, low-latency screening—built for actionable alerts on fast-moving markets
How to Use
Add the script to a TradingView chart (works on custom layouts)
Select up to 8 symbols and 4 timeframes using input fields (defaults to BTCUSD, ETHUSD, etc.)
Monitor the screener table; “SQUEEZE” highlights assets in potential breakout phase
Use momentum values to judge if the squeeze is likely bullish or bearish
Combine screener insights with manual chart analysis for optimal results
Customization
Symbols: Easily set any ticker for deep market scanning
Timeframes: Adjust to match your trading horizon (scalping, swing, long-term)
Indicator parameters: Refine Bollinger/Keltner/Momentum settings for sensitivity
Visuals: Personalize table layout, color codes, and formatting for clarity
Conclusion
In summary, the TTM Squeeze Screener is a robust, original TradingView indicator designed for crypto traders who demand a sophisticated multi-symbol, multi-timeframe edge. Its combination of volatility and momentum analytics makes it ideal for catching explosive breakouts, managing risk, and scanning the market efficiently. Whether you’re a scalper or swing trader, this screener provides the insights needed to stay ahead of the curve.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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FEI: Futures Entry Identifier📘 FEI: Futures Entry Identifier
FEI is a modular, futures-grade entry engine designed for precision trading across GC1!, MNQ1!, ES1!, and related contracts. It combines manual SVP structure, CHoCH detection, and Colby-style candle strength filters to identify high-probability long and short entries.
🔧 Features
• Manual SVP inputs (VAH, VAL, POC)
• Symbol-aware filters for micro vs standard contracts
• Multi-timeframe signal logic (3m, 5m, 10m, 15m, 30m)
• CHoCH detection with optional engulfing filter (default off)
• FRVP entry zone plotting after CHoCH confirmation
• Candle coloring on CHoCH trigger
• Session-aware logic (ETH default, optional RTH-only)
• Narratable visuals and audit-safe alerts
🧭 How to Use
1. Input VAH, VAL, and POC manually
2. Select signal timeframe (e.g. 3m or 5m)
3. Watch for CHoCH (white candle = structural shift)
4. Entry line plots at top/bottom of recent range
5. Long/short markers appear when SVP + candle strength align
6. Toggle RTH-only mode if needed
🌟 Why It’s Unique
FEI is built for traders who demand clarity, structure, and precision. Every signal is narratable, audit-safe, and resolution-aware—ideal for futures overlays and sniper-grade entries.
Trend/Range Composite (Single-Line) v1.4🔹 Step 1: Add it to your chart
Copy the whole script.
In TradingView → Pine Editor → paste it.
Click Add to chart.
It will show a white line in a subwindow, plus thresholds at 40 and 60, and a colored background.
Optional: You’ll see a status box (top-right of chart) with details like ADX, ATR, slope, etc.
🔹 Step 2: Understand the Score
The indicator compresses all signals into a 0–100 “Trend Strength Score”:
≥ 60 = TREND (teal background)
→ Market is trending, consider trend strategies like vertical spreads, runners, breakouts.
≤ 40 = RANGE (orange background)
→ Market is choppy/sideways, consider range strategies like butterflies, condors, mean-reversion fades.
40–60 = MIXED (gray background)
→ Indecision / chop. Best to reduce size or wait for clarity.
🔹 Step 3: Use with Your Trading Plan
Intraday (5m, 15m, 30m)
Score < 40 → play support/resistance bounces, fade extremes.
Score > 60 → play momentum breakouts or pullback continuations.
Daily chart
Good for swing context (is this month trending or just chopping?).
🔹 Step 4: Alerts
You can set TradingView alerts:
Cross above 60 → market entering trend mode.
Cross below 40 → market entering range mode.
Useful if you don’t want to watch constantly.
🔹 Step 5: Confirm with Price Levels
The score tells you “trend vs range”, but you still need levels:
If score < 40 → mark PDH / PDL (previous day high/low), VAH/VAL, VWAP. Expect rejections/fades.
If score > 60 → watch for breakouts beyond PDH/PDL or supply/demand zones.
Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator (EPZ) [BullByte]Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator(EPZ)
The Extreme Pressure Zones (EPZ) Indicator is a proprietary market analysis tool designed to highlight potential overbought and oversold "pressure zones" in any financial chart. It does this by combining several unique measurements of price action and volume into a single, bounded oscillator (0–100). Unlike simple momentum or volatility indicators, EPZ captures multiple facets of market pressure: price rejection, trend momentum, supply/demand imbalance, and institutional (smart money) flow. This is not a random mashup of generic indicators; each component was chosen and weighted to reveal extreme market conditions that often precede reversals or strong continuations.
What it is?
EPZ estimates buying/selling pressure and highlights potential extreme zones with a single, bounded 0–100 oscillator built from four normalized components. Context-aware weighting adapts to volatility, trendiness, and relative volume. Visual tools include adaptive thresholds, confirmed-on-close extremes, divergence, an MTF dashboard, and optional gradient candles.
Purpose and originality (not a mashup)
Purpose: Identify when pressure is building or reaching potential extremes while filtering noise across regimes and symbols.
Originality: EPZ integrates price rejection, momentum cascade, pressure distribution, and smart money flow into one bounded scale with context-aware weighting. It is not a cosmetic mashup of public indicators.
Why a trader might use EPZ
EPZ provides a multi-dimensional gauge of market extremes that standalone indicators may miss. Traders might use it to:
Spot Reversals: When EPZ enters an "Extreme High" zone (high red), it implies selling pressure might soon dominate. This can hint at a topside reversal or at least a pause in rallies. Conversely, "Extreme Low" (green) can highlight bottom-fish opportunities. The indicator's divergence module (optional) also finds hidden bullish/bearish divergences between price and EPZ, a clue that price momentum is weakening.
Measure Momentum Shifts: Because EPZ blends momentum and volume, it reacts faster than many single metrics. A rising MPO indicates building bullish pressure, while a falling MPO shows increasing bearish pressure. Traders can use this like a refined RSI: above 50 means bullish bias, below 50 means bearish bias, but with context provided by the thresholds.
Filter Trades: In trend-following systems, one could require EPZ to be in the bullish (green) zone before taking longs, or avoid new trades when EPZ is extreme. In mean-reversion systems, one might specifically look to fade extremes flagged by EPZ.
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: The dashboard can fetch a higher timeframe EPZ value. For example, you might trade a 15-minute chart only when the 60-minute EPZ agrees on pressure direction.
Components and how they're combined
Rejection (PRV) – Captures price rejection based on candle wicks and volume (see Price Rejection Volume).
Momentum Cascade (MCD) – Blends multiple momentum periods (3,5,8,13) into a normalized momentum score.
Pressure Distribution (PDI) – Measures net buy/sell pressure by comparing volume on up vs down candles.
Smart Money Flow (SMF) – An adaptation of money flow index that emphasizes unusual volume spikes.
Each of these components produces a 0–100 value (higher means more bullish pressure). They are then weighted and averaged into the final Market Pressure Oscillator (MPO), which is smoothed and scaled. By combining these four views, EPZ stands out as a comprehensive pressure gauge – the whole is greater than the sum of parts
Context-aware weighting:
Higher volatility → more PRV weight
Trendiness up (RSI of ATR > 25) → more MCD weight
Relative volume > 1.2x → more PDI weight
SMF holds a stable weight
The weighted average is smoothed and scaled into MPO ∈ with 50 as the neutral midline.
What makes EPZ stand out
Four orthogonal inputs (price action, momentum, pressure, flow) unified in a single bounded oscillator with consistent thresholds.
Adaptive thresholds (optional) plus robust extreme detection that also triggers on crossovers, so static thresholds work reliably too.
Confirm Extremes on Bar Close (default ON): dots/arrows/labels/alerts print on closed bars to avoid repaint confusion.
Clean dashboard, divergence tools, pre-alerts, and optional on-price gradients. Visual 3D layering uses offsets for depth only,no lookahead.
Recommended markets and timeframes
Best: liquid symbols (index futures, large-cap equities, major FX, BTC/ETH).
Timeframes: 5–15m (more signals; consider higher thresholds), 1H–4H (balanced), 1D (clear regimes).
Use caution on illiquid or very low TFs where wick/volume geometry is erratic.
Logic and thresholds
MPO ∈ ; 50 = neutral. Above 50 = bullish pressure; below 50 = bearish.
Static thresholds (defaults): thrHigh = 70, thrLow = 30; warning bands 5 pts inside extremes (65/35).
Adaptive thresholds (optional):
thrHigh = min(BaseHigh + 5, mean(MPO,100) + stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
thrLow = max(BaseLow − 5, mean(MPO,100) − stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
Extreme detection
High: MPO ≥ thrHigh with peak/slope or crossover filter.
Low: MPO ≤ thrLow with trough/slope or crossover filter.
Cooldown: 5 bars (default). A new extreme will not print until the cooldown elapses, even if MPO re-enters the zone.
Confirmation
"Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" (default ON) gates extreme markers, pre-alerts, and alerts to closed bars (non-repainting).
Divergences
Pivot-based bullish/bearish divergence; tags appear only after left/right bars elapse (lookbackPivot).
MTF
HTF MPO retrieved with lookahead_off; values can update intrabar and finalize at HTF close. This is disclosed and expected.
Inputs and defaults (key ones)
Core: Sensitivity=1.0; Analysis Period=14; Smoothing=3; Adaptive Thresholds=OFF.
Extremes: Base High=70, Base Low=30; Extreme Sensitivity=1.5; Confirm Extremes on Bar Close=ON; Cooldown=5; Dot size Small/Tiny.
Visuals: Heatmap ON; 3D depth optional; Strength bars ON; Pre-alerts OFF; Divergences ON with tags ON; Gradient candles OFF; Glow ON.
Dashboard: ON; Position=Top Right; Size=Normal; MTF ON; HTF=60m; compact overlay table on price chart.
Advanced caps: Max Oscillator Labels=80; Max Extreme Guide Lines=80; Divergence objects=60.
Dashboard: what each element means
Header: EPZ ANALYSIS.
Large readout: Current MPO; color reflects state (extreme, approaching, or neutral).
Status badge: "Extreme High/Low", "Approaching High/Low", "Bullish/Neutral/Bearish".
HTF cell (when MTF ON): Higher-timeframe MPO, color-coded vs extremes; updates intrabar, settles at HTF close.
Predicted (when MTF OFF): Simple MPO extrapolation using momentum/acceleration—illustrative only.
Thresholds: Current thrHigh/thrLow (static or adaptive).
Components: ASCII bars + values for PRV, MCD, PDI, SMF.
Market metrics: Volume Ratio (x) and ATR% of price.
Strength: Bar indicator of |MPO − 50| × 2.
Confidence: Heuristic gauge (100 in extremes, 70 in warnings, 50 with divergence, else |MPO − 50|). Convenience only, not probability.
How to read the oscillator
MPO Value (0–100): A reading of 50 is neutral. Values above ~55 are increasingly bullish (green), while below ~45 are increasingly bearish (red). Think of these as "market pressure".
Extreme Zones: When MPO climbs into the bright orange/red area (above the base-high line, default 70), the chart will display a dot and downward arrow marking that extreme. Traders often treat this as a sign to tighten stops or look for shorts. Similarly, a bright green dot/up-arrow appears when MPO falls below the base-low (30), hinting at a bullish setup.
Heatmap/Candles: If "Pressure Heatmap" is enabled, the background of the oscillator pane will fade green or red depending on MPO. Users can optionally color the price candles by MPO value (gradient candles) to see these extremes on the main chart.
Prediction Zone(optional): A dashed projection line extends the MPO forward by a small number of bars (prediction_bars) using current MPO momentum and acceleration. This is a heuristic extrapolation best used for short horizons (1–5 bars) to anticipate whether MPO may touch a warning or extreme zone. It is provisional and becomes less reliable with longer projection lengths — always confirm predicted moves with bar-close MPO and HTF context before acting.
Divergences: When price makes a higher high but EPZ makes a lower high (bearish divergence), the indicator can draw dotted lines and a "Bear Div" tag. The opposite (lower low price, higher EPZ) gives "Bull Div". These signals confirm waning momentum at extremes.
Zones: Warning bands near extremes; Extreme zones beyond thresholds.
Crossovers: MPO rising through 35 suggests easing downside pressure; falling through 65 suggests waning upside pressure.
Dots/arrows: Extreme markers appear on closed bars when confirmation is ON and respect the 5-bar cooldown.
Pre-alert dots (optional): Proximity cues in warning zones; also gated to bar close when confirmation is ON.
Histogram: Distance from neutral (50); highlights strengthening or weakening pressure.
Divergence tags: "Bear Div" = higher price high with lower MPO high; "Bull Div" = lower price low with higher MPO low.
Pressure Heatmap : Layered gradient background that visually highlights pressure strength across the MPO scale; adjustable intensity and optional zone overlays (warning / extreme) for quick visual scanning.
A typical reading: If the oscillator is rising from neutral towards the high zone (green→orange→red), the chart may see strong buying culminating in a stall. If it then turns down from the extreme, that peak EPZ dot signals sell pressure.
Alerts
EPZ: Extreme Context — fires on confirmed extremes (respects cooldown).
EPZ: Approaching Threshold — fires in warning zones if no extreme.
EPZ: Divergence — fires on confirmed pivot divergences.
Tip: Set alerts to "Once per bar close" to align with confirmation and avoid intrabar repaint.
Practical usage ideas
Trend continuation: In positive regimes (MPO > 50 and rising), pullbacks holding above 50 often precede continuation; mirror for bearish regimes.
Exhaustion caution: E High/E Low can mark exhaustion risk; many wait for MPO rollover or divergence to time fades or partial exits.
Adaptive thresholds: Useful on assets with shifting volatility regimes to maintain meaningful "extreme" levels.
MTF alignment: Prefer setups that agree with the HTF MPO to reduce countertrend noise.
Examples
Screenshots captured in TradingView Replay to freeze the bar at close so values don't fluctuate intrabar. These examples use default settings and are reproducible on the same bars; they are for illustration, not cherry-picking or performance claims.
Example 1 — BTCUSDT, 1h — E Low
MPO closed at 26.6 (below the 30 extreme), printing a confirmed E Low. HTF MPO is 26.6, so higher-timeframe pressure remains bearish. Components are subdued (Momentum/Pressure/Smart$ ≈ 29–37), with Vol Ratio ≈ 1.19x and ATR% ≈ 0.37%. A prior Bear Div flagged weakening impulse into the drop. With cooldown set to 5 bars, new extremes are rate-limited. Many traders wait for MPO to curl up and reclaim 35 or for a fresh Bull Div before considering countertrend ideas; if MPO cannot reclaim 35 and HTF stays weak, treat bounces cautiously. Educational illustration only.
Example 2 — ETHUSD, 30m — E High
A strong impulse pushed MPO into the extreme zone (≥ 70), printing a confirmed E High on close. Shortly after, MPO cooled to ~61.5 while a Bear Div appeared, showing momentum lag as price pushed a higher high. Volume and volatility were elevated (≈ 1.79x / 1.25%). With a 5-bar cooldown, additional extremes won't print immediately. Some treat E High as exhaustion risk—either waiting for MPO rollover under 65/50 to fade, or for a pullback that holds above 50 to re-join the trend if higher-timeframe pressure remains constructive. Educational illustration only.
Known limitations and caveats
The MPO line itself can change intrabar; extreme markers/alerts do not repaint when "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" is ON.
HTF values settle at the close of the HTF bar.
Illiquid symbols or very low TFs can be noisy; consider higher thresholds or longer smoothing.
Prediction line (when enabled) is a visual extrapolation only.
For coders
Pine v6. MTF via request.security with lookahead_off.
Extremes include crossover triggers so static thresholds also yield E High/E Low.
Extreme markers and pre-alerts are gated by barstate.isconfirmed when confirmation is ON.
Arrays prune oldest objects to respect resource limits; defaults (80/80/60) are conservative for low TFs.
3D layering uses negative offsets purely for drawing depth (no lookahead).
Screenshot methodology:
To make labels legible and to demonstrate non-repainting behavior, the examples were captured in TradingView Replay with "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" enabled. Replay is used only to freeze the bar at close so plots don't change intrabar. The examples use default settings, include both Extreme Low and Extreme High cases, and can be reproduced by scrolling to the same bars outside Replay. This is an educational illustration, not a performance claim.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets involve risk; past behavior does not guarantee future results. You are responsible for your own testing, risk management, and decisions.
ICT Venom Trading Model [TradingFinder] SMC NY Session 2025SetupIntroduction
The ICT Venom Model is one of the most advanced strategies in the ICT framework, designed for intraday trading on major US indices such as US100, US30, and US500. This model is rooted in liquidity theory, time and price dynamics, and institutional order flow.
The Venom Model focuses on detecting Liquidity Sweeps, identifying Fair Value Gaps (FVG), and analyzing Market Structure Shifts (MSS). By combining these ICT core concepts, traders can filter false breakouts, capture sharp reversals, and align their entries with the real institutional liquidity flow during the New York Session.
Key Highlights of ICT Venom Model :
Intraday focus : Optimized for US indices (US100, US30, US500).
Time element : Critical window is 08:00–09:30 AM (Venom Box).
Liquidity sweep logic : Price grabs liquidity at 09:30 AM open.
Confirmation tools : MSS, CISD, FVG, and Order Blocks.
Dual setups : Works in both Bullish Venom and Bearish Venom conditions.
At its core, the ICT Venom Strategy is a framework that explains how institutional players manipulate liquidity pools by engineering false breakouts around the initial range of the market. Between 08:00 and 09:30 AM New York time, a range called the “Venom Box” is formed.
This range acts as a trap for retail traders, and once the 09:30 AM market open occurs, price usually sweeps either the high or the low of this box to collect stop-loss liquidity. After this liquidity grab, the market often reverses sharply, giving birth to a classic Bullish Venom Setup or Bearish Venom Setup
The Venom Model (ICT Venom Trading Strategy) is not just a pattern recognition tool but a precise institutional trading model based on time, liquidity, and market structure. By understanding the Initial Balance Range, watching for Liquidity Sweeps, and entering trades from FVG zones or Order Blocks, traders can anticipate market reversals with high accuracy. This strategy is widely respected among ICT followers because it offers both risk management discipline and clear entry/exit conditions. In short, the Venom Model transforms liquidity manipulation into actionable trading opportunities.
Bullish Setup :
Bearish Setup :
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Venom Model is applied by observing price behavior during the early hours of the New York session. The first step is to define the Initial Range, also called the Venom Box, which is formed between 08:00 and 09:30 AM EST. This range marks the high and low points where institutional traders often create traps for retail participants. Once the official market opens at 09:30 AM, price usually sweeps either the top or bottom of this box to collect liquidity.
After this liquidity grab, the market tends to reverse in alignment with the true directional bias. To confirm the setup, traders look for signals such as a Market Structure Shift (MSS), Change in State of Delivery (CISD), or the appearance of a Fair Value Gap (FVG). These elements validate the reversal and provide precise levels for trade execution.
🟣 Bullish Setup
In a Bullish Venom Setup, the market first sweeps the low of the Venom Box after 09:30 AM, triggering sell-side liquidity collection. This downward move is often sharp and deceptive, designed to stop out retail long positions and attract new sellers. Once liquidity is taken, the market typically shifts direction, forming an MSS or CISD that signals a reversal to the upside.
Traders then wait for price to retrace into a Fair Value Gap or a demand-side Order Block created during the reversal leg. This retracement offers the ideal entry point for long positions. Stop-loss placement should be just below the liquidity sweep low, while profit targets are set at the Venom Box high and, if momentum continues, at higher session or daily highs.
🟣 Bearish Setup
In a Bearish Venom Setup, the process is similar but reversed. After the Initial Range is defined, if price breaks above the Venom Box high following the 09:30 AM open, it signals a false breakout designed to collect buy-side liquidity. This move usually traps eager buyers and clears out stop-losses above the high.
After the liquidity sweep, confirmation comes through an MSS or CISD pointing to a reversal downward. At this stage, traders anticipate a retracement into a Fair Value Gap or a supply-side Order Block formed during the reversal. Short entries are taken within this zone, with stop-loss positioned just above the liquidity sweep high. The logical profit targets include the Venom Box low and, in stronger bearish momentum, deeper session or daily lows.
🔵 Settings
Refine Order Block : Enables finer adjustments to Order Block levels for more accurate price responses.
Mitigation Level OB : Allows users to set specific reaction points within an Order Block, including: Proximal: Closest level to the current price. 50% OB: Midpoint of the Order Block. Distal: Farthest level from the current price.
FVG Filter : The Judas Swing indicator includes a filter for Fair Value Gap (FVG), allowing different filtering based on FVG width: FVG Filter Type: Can be set to "Very Aggressive," "Aggressive," "Defensive," or "Very Defensive." Higher defensiveness narrows the FVG width, focusing on narrower gaps.
Mitigation Level FVG : Like the Order Block, you can set price reaction levels for FVG with options such as Proximal, 50% OB, and Distal.
CISD : The Bar Back Check option enables traders to specify the number of past candles checked for identifying the CISD Level, enhancing CISD Level accuracy on the chart.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Venom Model is more than just a reversal setup; it is a complete intraday trading framework that blends liquidity theory, time precision, and market structure analysis. By focusing on the Initial Range between 08:00 and 09:30 AM New York time and observing how price reacts at the 09:30 AM open, traders can identify liquidity sweeps that reveal institutional intentions.
Whether in a Bullish Venom Setup or a Bearish Venom Setup, the model allows for precise entries through Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Order Blocks, while maintaining clear risk management with well-defined stop-loss and target levels.
Ultimately, the ICT Venom Model provides traders with a structured way to filter false moves and align their trades with institutional order flow. Its strength lies in transforming liquidity manipulation into actionable opportunities, giving intraday traders an edge in timing, accuracy, and consistency. For those who master its logic, the Venom Model becomes not only a strategy for entry and exit, but also a deeper framework for understanding how liquidity truly drives price in the New York session.
Advanced Market Structure [OmegaTools]📌 Market Structure
Advanced Market Structure is a next–generation indicator designed to decode price structure in real time by combining classical swing–based analysis with modern quantitative confirmation techniques. Built for traders who demand both precision and adaptability, it provides a robust multi–layered framework to identify structural shifts, trend continuations, and potential reversals across any asset class or timeframe.
Unlike traditional structure indicators that rely solely on visual swing identification, Market Structure introduces an integrated methodology: pivot detection, Donchian trend modeling, statistical confirmation via Z–Score, and volume–based validation. Each element contributes to a comprehensive, systematic representation of the underlying market dynamics.
🔑 Core Features
1. Five Distinct Market Structure Modes
Standard Mode:
Captures structural breaks through classical swing high/low pivots. Ideal for discretionary traders looking for clarity in directional bias.
Confirmed Breakout Mode:
Requires validation beyond the initial pivot break, filtering out noise and reducing false positives.
Donchian Trend HL (High/Low):
Establishes structure based on absolute highs and lows over rolling lookback windows. This approach highlights broader momentum shifts and trend–defining extremes.
Donchian Trend CC (Close/Close):
Similar to HL mode, but calculated using closing prices, enabling more precise bias identification where close–to–close structure carries stronger statistical weight.
Average Mode:
A composite methodology that synthesizes the four models into a weighted signal, producing a balanced structural bias designed to minimize model–specific weaknesses.
2. Dynamic Pivot Recognition with Auto–Updating Levels
Swing highs and lows are automatically detected and plotted with adaptive horizontal levels. These dynamic support/resistance markers continuously extend into the future, ensuring that historically significant levels remain visible and actionable.
3. Color–Adaptive Candlesticks
Price bars are dynamically recolored to reflect the prevailing structural regime: bullish (default blue), bearish (default red), or neutral (gray). This enables instant visual recognition of regime changes without requiring external confirmation.
4. Statistical Reversal Triggers
The script integrates a 21–period Z–Score calculation applied to closing prices, combined with multi–layered volume confirmation (SMA and EMA convergence).
Bullish trigger: Z–Score < –2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Bearish trigger: Z–Score > +2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Signals are plotted as diamond markers above or below the bars, identifying potential high–probability reversal setups in real time.
5. Integrated Alpha Backtesting Engine
Each market structure mode is evaluated through a built–in backtesting routine, tracking hit ratios and consistency across the most recent ~2000 structural events.
Performance metrics (“Alpha”) are displayed directly on–chart via a dedicated Performance Dashboard Table, allowing side–by–side comparison of Standard, Confirmed Breakout, Donchian HL, Donchian CC, and Average models.
Traders can instantly evaluate which structural methodology best adapts to the current market conditions.
🎯 Practical Advantages
Systematic Clarity: Eliminates subjectivity in defining structural bias, offering a rules–based framework.
Statistical Transparency: Built–in performance metrics validate each mode in real time, allowing informed decision–making.
Noise Reduction: Confirmed Breakouts and Donchian modes filter out common traps in structural trading.
Multi–Asset Adaptability: Optimized for scalping, intraday, swing, and multi–day strategies across FX, equities, futures, commodities, and crypto.
Complementary Usage: Works as a stand–alone structure identifier or as a quantitative filter in larger algorithmic/trading frameworks.
⚙️ Ideal Users
Discretionary traders seeking an objective reference for structural bias.
Quantitative/systematic traders requiring on–chart statistical validation of structural regimes.
Technical analysts leveraging pivots, Donchian channels, and price action as part of broader frameworks.
Portfolio traders integrating structure into multi–factor models.
💡 Why This Tool?
Market Structure is not a static indicator — it is an adaptive framework. By merging classical pivot theory with Donchian–style momentum analysis, and reinforcing both with statistical backtesting and volume confirmation, it provides traders with a unique ability:
To see the structure,
To measure its reliability,
And to act with confidence on quantifiably validated signals.
HTF Control Shift CandlesHTF Control Shift Candles highlights reversal-type candles that show a decisive shift in market control between buyers and sellers. These candles are detected by measuring wick length relative to the entire range and the close’s position within that range. A bullish control shift occurs when a candle forms with a long lower wick and closes in the top portion of its range, showing strong rejection of lower prices and a buyer takeover. A bearish control shift occurs when a candle forms with a long upper wick and closes in the bottom portion of its range, showing rejection of higher prices and a seller takeover. Candles are automatically recolored for fast visual recognition, and alerts are built in so traders never miss a potential shift in control.
This tool is specifically designed for 30-minute and higher timeframes, where control shift candles carry greater significance for swing and intraday setups. Inputs allow you to adjust wick percentage (wickPct) and body percentage (bodyPct) thresholds for different levels of sensitivity. For example, with wickPct = 0.5 and bodyPct = 0.3, a bullish control shift requires the lower wick to be at least 50% of the entire range and the close to finish in the top 30%. By tuning these values, traders can refine the detection for different volatility regimes or personal trading strategies.
Bar Close Confirmation Only
This indicator confirms signals only after the candle has closed. The calculation requires final values for open, high, low, and close, which are not fixed until the bar finishes forming. That means no mid-bar or intrabar repainting — alerts and highlights trigger only once the bar is complete. For example, if a candle temporarily has a long lower wick but closes back in the middle of its range, it will not be marked as a bullish control shift. This ensures accuracy by waiting for the final candle close before confirming that buyers or sellers truly maintained control.
Control shift candles can be especially useful around liquidity sweeps, support/resistance zones, or after extended moves, as they often mark key turning points. A bullish control shift near demand may provide an early entry confirmation for longs, while a bearish control shift at supply may signal short opportunities or exits from longs. This makes the indicator a versatile tool for anticipating reversals, timing entries with precision, and filtering signals on higher timeframes where market structure shifts are most impactful.
Dr.Yazdani V063 Session OR + A-Lines
**ACD Indicator: Mark Fisher's Opening Range Breakout Strategy**
**Overview**
The ACD system, developed by legendary trader Mark Fisher in his book *The Logical Trader*, is a powerful methodology for identifying high-probability trade setups based on the market's opening range (OR). This indicator automates Layers 1 and 2 of the ACD strategy, helping you spot breakout opportunities, trend direction, and key support/resistance levels. Perfect for day traders, scalpers, and swing traders in forex, stocks, futures, or crypto.
**How It Works**
1. **Opening Range (OR)**: Calculated from the high/low of the first X minutes (default: 30-60 min) of major sessions (e.g., Tokyo, London, New York).
2. **A Levels**: Drawn at a percentage (default: 0.5% of OR range or ATR-based) above/below the OR. A breakout above A-Up signals a bullish setup; below A-Down signals bearish.
3. **C Levels**: Wider levels (default: 1-2% or ATR multiplier) for stronger confirmation. Breakouts here confirm trend strength and filter fakeouts.
4. **Pivot Ranges**: Includes daily and N-day pivots to gauge overall market bias (above pivots = bullish; below = bearish).
**Key Features**
- **Customizable Sessions**: Tokyo (00:00-01:00 GMT), London (08:00-09:00 GMT), New York (13:30-14:30 GMT) – adjustable.
- **ATR Integration**: Uses Average True Range for dynamic A/C levels (period: 14 by default).
- **Visual Alerts**: Color-coded lines (green for bullish, red for bearish) + optional labels for breakouts.
- **Pivot Display**: Show/hide daily or multi-day pivots with customizable colors.
- **Risk Management**: Built-in stop-loss suggestions based on OR width.
**Trading Rules**
- **Bullish Setup**: Price breaks and holds above A-Up → Enter long at C-Up confirmation. Target: Next pivot or 1:2 risk-reward.
- **Bearish Setup**: Price breaks below A-Down → Enter short at C-Down.
- **Avoid Fakeouts**: Wait for stabilization (e.g., close above/below level).
- **Trend Filter**: Combine with PMA (Pivot Moving Average) for Layer 3 confirmation (search "ACD PMA" in TradingView).
**Settings Guide**
- **OR Timeframe**: Session start time and duration (e.g., 30 min).
- **A Multiplier (%)**: Distance for A levels (default: 0.5).
- **C Multiplier (%)**: Distance for C levels (default: 1.0).
- **ATR Period**: For volatility-based levels (default: 14).
- **Show Pivots**: Toggle daily/N-day ranges.
This indicator balances supply/demand by analyzing volume and price action within the opening range. Backtest on your favorite pairs (e.g., EURUSD, BTCUSD) and adjust for your style. Not financial advice – always use proper risk management!
**Inspired by**: Mark Fisher's ACD Methodology. Open-source for community review. Questions? Comment below!
#ACD #OpeningRange #Breakout #DayTrading #FisherStrategy
Smart Money Support/Resistance — LiteSmart Money Support/Resistance — Lite
Overview & Methodology
This indicator identifies support and resistance as zones derived from concentrated buying and selling pressure, rather than relying solely on traditional swing highs/lows. Its design focuses on transparency: how data is sourced, how zones are computed, and how the on‑chart display should be interpreted.
Lower‑Timeframe (LTF) Data
The script requests Up Volume, Down Volume, and Volume Delta from a lower timeframe to expose intrabar order‑flow structure that the chart’s native timeframe cannot show. In practical terms, this lets you see where buyers or sellers briefly dominated inside the body of a higher‑timeframe bar.
bool use_custom_tf_input = input.bool(true, title="Use custom lower timeframe", tooltip="Override the automatically chosen lower timeframe for volume calculations.", group=grpVolume)
string custom_tf_input = input. Timeframe("1", title="Lower timeframe", tooltip="Lower timeframe used for up/down volume calculations (default 5 seconds).", group=grpVolume)
import TradingView/ta/10 as tvta
resolve_lower_tf(useCustom, customTF) =>
useCustom ? customTF :
timeframe.isseconds ? "1S" :
timeframe.isintraday ? "1" :
timeframe.isdaily ? "5" : "60"
get_up_down_volume(lowerTf) =>
= tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lowerTf)
var float upVolume = na
var float downVolume = na
var float deltaVolume = na
string lower_tf = resolve_lower_tf(use_custom_tf_input, custom_tf_input)
= get_up_down_volume(lower_tf)
upVolume := u_tmp
downVolume := d_tmp
deltaVolume := dl_tmp
• Data source: TradingView’s ta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lowerTf) via the official TA library.
• Plan capabilities: higher‑tier subscriptions unlock seconds‑based charts and allow more historical bars per chart. This expands both the temporal depth of LTF data and the precision of short‑horizon analysis, while base tiers provide minute‑level data suitable for day/short‑swing studies.
• Coverage clarity: a small on‑chart Coverage Panel reports the active lower timeframe, the number of bars covered, and the latest computed support/resistance ranges so you always know the bounds of valid LTF input.
Core Method
1) Data acquisition (LTF)
The script retrieves three series from the chosen lower timeframe:
– Up Volume (buyers)
– Down Volume (sellers)
– Delta (Up – Down)
2) Rolling window & extrema
Over a user‑defined lookback (Global Volume Period), the algorithm builds rolling arrays of completed bars and scans for extrema:
– Buyers_max / Buyers_min from Up Volume
– Sellers_max / Sellers_min from Down Volume
Only completed bars are considered; the current bar is excluded for stability.
3) Price mapping
The extrema are mapped back to their source candles to obtain price bounds:
– For “maximum” roles the algorithm uses the relevant candle highs.
– For “minimum” roles it uses the relevant candle lows.
These pairs define candidate resistance (max‑based) and support (min‑based) zones or vice versa.
4) Zone construction & minimum width
To ensure practicality on all symbols, zones enforce a minimum vertical thickness of two ticks. This prevents visually invisible or overly thin ranges on instruments with tight ticks.
5) Vertical role resolution
When both max‑ and min‑based zones exist, the script compares their midpoints. If, due to local price structure, the min‑based zone sits above the max‑based zone, display roles are swapped so the higher zone is labeled Resistance and the lower zone Support. Colors/widths are updated accordingly to keep the visual legend consistent.
6) Rendering & panel
Two horizontal lines and a filled box represent each active zone. The Coverage Panel (bottom‑right by default) prints:
– Lower‑timeframe in use
– Number of bars covered by LTF data
– Current Support and Resistance ranges
If the two zones overlap, an additional “Range Market” note is shown.
Key Inputs
• Global Volume Period: shared lookback window for the extrema search.
• Lower timeframe: user‑selectable override of the automatically resolved lower timeframe.
• Visualization toggles: independent show/hide controls and colors for maximum (resistance) and minimum (support) zones.
• Coverage Panel: enable/disable the single‑cell table and its readout.
Operational Notes
• The algorithm aligns all lookups to completed bars (no peeking). Price references are shifted appropriately to avoid using the still‑forming bar in calculations.
• Second‑based lower timeframes improve granularity for scalping and very short‑term entries. Minute‑based lower timeframes provide broader coverage for intraday and short‑swing contexts.
• Use the Coverage Panel to confirm the true extent of available LTF history on your symbol/plan before drawing conclusions from very deep lookbacks.
Visual Walkthrough
A step‑by‑step image sequence accompanies this description. Each figure demonstrates how the indicator reads LTF volume, locates extrema, builds price‑mapped zones, and updates labels/colors when vertical order requires it.
Chart Interpretation
This chart illustrates two distinct perspectives of the Smart Money Support/Resistance — Lite indicator, each derived from different lookback horizons and lower-timeframe (LTF) resolutions.
1- Short-term view (43 bars, 10-second LTF)
Using the most recent 43 completed bars with 10-second intrabar data, the algorithm detects that both maximum and minimum volume extrema fall within a narrow range. The result is a clearly identified range market: resistance between 178.15–184.55 and support between 175.02–179.38.
The Coverage Panel (bottom-right) confirms the scope of valid input: the lower timeframe used, number of bars covered, and the resulting zones. This short-term scan highlights how the indicator adapts to limited data depth, flagging sideways structure where neither side dominates.
2 - Long-term view (120 bars, 30-second LTF)
Over a wider 120-bar lookback with higher-granularity 30-second data, broader supply and demand zones emerge.
– The long-term resistance zone captures the concentration of buyers and sellers at the upper boundary of recent price history.
– The long-term support zone anchors to the opposite side of the distribution, derived from maxima and minima of both buying and selling pressure.
These zones reflect deeper structural levels where market participants previously committed significant volume.
Combined Perspective
By aligning the short-term and long-term outputs, the chart shows how the indicator distinguishes immediate consolidation (range market) from more durable support and resistance levels derived from extended history. This dual resolution approach makes clear that support and resistance are not static lines but dynamic zones, dependent on both timeframe depth and the resolution of intrabar volume data.
Inversion Fair Value Gap Signals [AlgoAlpha]🟠 OVERVIEW
This script is a custom signal tool called Inversion Fair Value Gap Signals (IFVG) , designed to detect, track, and visualize fair value gaps (FVGs) and their inversions directly on price charts. It identifies bullish and bearish imbalances, monitors when these zones are mitigated or rejected, and extends them until resolution or expiration. What makes this script original is the inclusion of inversion logic—when a gap is filled, the area flips into an opposite "inversion fair value gap," creating potential reversal or continuation zones that give traders additional context beyond classic FVG analysis.
🟠 CONCEPTS
The script builds on the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) principle of fair value gaps, where inefficiencies form when price moves too quickly in one direction. Detection requires a three-bar sequence: a strong up or down move that leaves untraded price between bar highs and lows. To refine reliability, the script adds an ATR-based size filter and prevents overlap between zones. Once created, gaps are tracked in arrays until mitigation (price closing back into the gap), expiration, or transformation into an inversion zone. Inversions act as polarity flips, where bullish gaps become bearish resistance and bearish gaps become bullish support. Lower-timeframe volume data is also displayed inside zones to highlight whether buying or selling pressure dominated during gap creation.
🟠 FEATURES
Automatic detection of bullish and bearish FVGs with ATR-based thresholding.
Inversion logic: mitigated gaps flip into opposite-colored IFVG zones.
Volume text overlay inside each zone showing up vs down volume.
Visual markers (△/▽ for FVG, ▲/▼ for IFVG) when price exits a zone without mitigation.
🟠 USAGE
Apply the indicator to any chart and enable/disable bullish or bearish FVG detection depending on your focus. Use the colored gap zones as areas of interest: bullish gaps suggest possible continuation to the upside until mitigated, while bearish gaps suggest continuation down. When a gap flips into an inversion zone, treat it as potential support/resistance—bullish IFVGs below price may act as demand, while bearish IFVGs above price may act as supply. Watch the embedded up/down volume data to gauge the strength of participants during gap formation. Use the △/▽ and ▲/▼ markers to spot when price rejects gaps or inversions without filling them, which can indicate strong trending momentum. For practical use, combine alerts with your trade plan to track when new gaps form, when old ones are resolved, or when key zones flip into inversions, helping you align entries, targets, or reversals with institutional order flow logic.
ORB 15m + MAs (v4.1)Session ORB Live Pro — Pre-Market Boxes & MA Suite (v4.1)
What it is
A precision Opening Range Breakout (ORB) tool that anchors every session to one specific 15-minute candle—then projects that same high/low onto lower timeframes so your 1m/5m levels always match the source 15m bar. Perfect for scalpers who want session structure without drift.
What it draws
Asia, Pre-London, London, Pre-New York, New York session boxes.
On 15m: only the high/low of the first 15-minute bar of each window (optionally persists for extra bars).
On 5m: mirrors the same 15m range, visible up to 10 bars.
On 1m: mirrors the same 15m range, visible up to 15 bars.
Levels update live while the 15m candle is forming, then lock.
Fully editable windows (easy UX)
Change session times with TradingView’s native input.session fields using the familiar format HHMM-HHMM:1234567. You can tweak each window independently:
Asia
Pre-London
London
Pre-New York
New York
Multi-TF logic (no guesswork)
Designed to show only on 1m, 5m, 15m (by default).
15m = ground truth. Lower timeframes never “recalculate a different range”—they mirror the 15m bar for that session, exactly.
Alerts
Optional breakout alerts when price closes above/below the session range.
Clean visuals
Per-session color controls (box + lines). Boxes extend only for the configured number of bars per timeframe, keeping charts uncluttered.
Built-in MA suite
SMA 50 and RMA 200.
Three extra MAs (SMA/EMA/RMA/WMA/HMA) with selectable color, width, and style (line, stepline, circles).
Why traders like it
Consistency: Lower-TF ranges always match the 15m source bar.
Speed: You see structure immediately—no waiting for N bars.
Control: Edit session times directly; tune how long boxes stay on chart per TF.
Clarity: Minimal, purposeful plotting with alerts when it matters.
Quick start
Set your session times via the five input.session fields.
Choose how long boxes persist on 1m/5m/15m.
Enable alerts if you want instant breakout notifications.
(Optional) Configure the MA suite for trend/bias context.
Best for
Intraday traders and scalpers who rely on repeatable session behavior and demand exact cross-TF alignment of ORB levels.
Gold Lagging (N days)This indicator overlays the price of gold (XAUUSD) on any chart with a customizable lag in days. You can choose the price source (open, high, low, close, hlc3, ohlc4), shift the series by a set number of daily bars, and optionally normalize the values so that the first visible bar equals 100. The original gold line can also be displayed alongside the lagged series for direct comparison.
It is especially useful for analyzing delayed correlations between gold and other assets, observing shifts in safe-haven demand, or testing hypotheses about lagging market reactions. Since the lag is calculated on daily data, it remains consistent even if applied on intraday charts, while the indicator itself can be plotted on a separate price scale for clarity.
이 지표는 금(XAUUSD) 가격을 원하는 차트 위에 N일 지연된 형태로 표시합니다. 가격 소스(시가, 고가, 저가, 종가, hlc3, ohlc4)를 선택할 수 있으며, 지정한 일 수만큼 시리즈를 뒤로 이동시킬 수 있습니다. 또한 첫 값 기준으로 100에 맞춰 정규화하거나, 원래 금 가격선을 함께 표시해 비교할 수도 있습니다.
금과 다른 자산 간의 지연 상관관계를 분석하거나 안전자산 수요 변화를 관찰할 때 유용하며, 시장 반응의 시차 효과를 검증하는 데에도 활용할 수 있습니다. 지연은 일봉 데이터 기준으로 계산되므로 단기 차트에 적용해도 일 단위 기준이 유지되며, 별도의 가격 스케일에 표시되어 가독성을 높일 수 있습니다.
Stochastic [Paifc0de]Stochastic — clean stochastic oscillator with visual masking, neutral markers, and basic filters
What it does
This indicator plots a standard stochastic oscillator (%K with smoothing and %D) and adds practical quality-of-life features for lower timeframes: optional visual masking when %K hugs overbought/oversold, neutral K–D cross markers, session-gated edge triangles (K crossing 20/80), and simple filters (minimum %K slope, minimum |K–D| gap, optional %D slope agreement, mid-zone mute, and a cooldown between markers). Display values are clamped to 0–100 to keep the panel scale stable. The tool is for research/education and does not generate entries/exits or financial advice.
Default preset: 20 / 10 / 10
K Length = 20
Classic lookback used in many textbooks. On intraday charts it balances responsiveness and stability: short enough to react to momentum shifts, long enough to avoid constant whipsaws. In practice it captures ~the last 20 bars’ position of close within the high–low range.
K Smoothing = 10
A 10-period SMA applied to the raw %K moderates the “saw-tooth” effect that raw stochastic can exhibit in choppy phases. The smoothing reduces over-reaction to micro spikes while preserving the main rhythm of swings; visually, %K becomes a continuous path that is easier to read.
D Length = 10
%D is the moving average of smoothed %K. With 10, %D becomes a clearly slower guide line. The larger separation between %K(10-SMA) and %D(10-SMA of %K) produces cleaner crosses and fewer spurious toggles than micro settings (e.g., 3/3/3). On M5–M15 this pair often yields readable cross cycles without flooding the chart.
How the 20/10/10 trio behaves
In persistent trends, %K will spend more time near 20 or 80; the 10-period smoothing delays flips slightly and emphasizes only meaningful turn attempts.
In ranges, %K oscillates around mid-zone (40–60). With 10/10 smoothing, cross signals cluster less densely; combining with the |K–D| gap filter helps keep only decisive crosses.
If your symbol is unusually volatile or illiquid, reduce K Length (e.g., 14) or reduce K Smoothing (e.g., 7) to keep responsiveness. If crosses feel late, decrease D Length (e.g., 7). If noise is excessive, increase K Smoothing first, then consider raising D Length.
Visuals
OB/OS lines: default 80/20 reference levels and a midline at 50.
Masking near edges: %K can be temporarily hidden when it is pressing an edge, approaching it with low slope, or going nearly flat near the boundary. This keeps the panel readable during “stuck at the edge” phases.
Soft glow (optional): highlights %K’s active path; can be turned off.
Light/Dark palette: quick toggle to match your chart theme.
Scale safety: all plotted values (lines, fills, markers) are clamped to 0–100 to prevent the axis from expanding beyond the stochastic range.
Markers and filters
Neutral K–D cross markers: circles in the mid-zone when %K crosses %D.
Edge triangles: show when %K crosses 20 or 80; can be restricted to a session window (02:00–12:00 ET).
Filters (optional):
Min %K slope: require a minimum absolute slope so very flat crosses are ignored.
Min |K–D| gap: demand separation between lines at the cross moment.
%D slope agreement: keep crosses that align with %D’s direction.
Mid-zone mute: suppress crosses inside a user-defined 40–60 band (defaults).
Cooldown: minimum bars between successive markers.
Parameters (quick guide)
K Length / K Smoothing / D Length: core stochastic settings. Start with 20/10/10; tune K Smoothing first if you see too much jitter.
Overbought / Oversold (80/20): adjust for assets that tend to trend (raise to 85/15) or mean-revert (lower to 75/25).
Slope & gap filters: increase on very noisy symbols; reduce if you miss too many crosses.
Session window (triangles only): use if you want edge markers only during active hours.
Marker size and offset: cosmetic; they do not affect calculations.
Alerts
K–D Cross Up (filtered) and K–D Cross Down (filtered): fire when a cross passes your filters/cooldown.
Edge Up / Edge Down: fire when %K crosses the 20/80 levels.
All alerts confirm on bar close.
Notes & attribution
Original implementation and integration by Paifc0de; no third-party code is copied.
This indicator is for research/education and does not provide entries/exits or financial advice.
Initial Balance SMC-V3
Initial Balance SMC-V3 – An Advanced Mean Reversion Indicator for Index Markets
The Initial Balance SMC-V3 indicator is the result of continuous refinement in mean reversion trading, with a specific focus on index markets (such as DAX, NASDAQ, S&P 500, etc.). Designed for high-liquidity environments with controlled volatility, it excels at precisely identifying value zones and statistical reversal points within market structure.
🔁 Mean Reversion at Its Core
At the heart of this indicator lies a robust mean reversion logic: rather than chasing extreme breakouts, it seeks returns toward equilibrium levels after impulsive moves. This makes it especially effective in ranging markets or corrective phases within broader trends—situations where many traders get caught in false breakouts.
🎯 Signals Require Breakout + Confirmation
Signals are never generated impulsively. Instead, they require a clear sequence of confirmations:
Break of a key level (e.g., Initial Balance high/low or an SMC zone);
Price re-entry into the range accompanied by a crossover of customizable moving averages (SMA, EMA, HULL, TEMA, etc.);
RSI filter to avoid entries in overbought/oversold extremes;
Volatility filter (ATR) to skip low-volatility, choppy conditions.
This multi-layered approach drastically reduces false signals and significantly improves trade quality.
📊 Built-in Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The indicator features native multi-timeframe logic:
H1 / 15-minute charts: for structural analysis and identification of Supply & Demand zones (SMC);
M1 / M5 charts: for precise trade execution, with targeted entries and dynamic risk management.
SMC zones are calculated on higher timeframes (e.g., 4H) to ensure structural reliability, while actual trade signals trigger on lower timeframes for maximum precision.
⚙️ Advanced Customization
Full choice of moving average type (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, VWMA, HULL, TEMA, ZLEMA, etc.);
Revenge Trading logic: after a stop loss is hit without reaching the 1:1 breakeven level, the indicator automatically prepares for a counter-trade;
Dynamic ATR-based stop loss with customizable multiplier;
Session filters to trade only during optimal liquidity windows (e.g., European session).
🧠 Who Is It For?
This indicator is ideal for traders who:
Primarily trade indices;
Prefer mean reversion strategies over pure trend-following;
Seek a disciplined, rule-based system with multiple confluence filters;
Use a multi-timeframe approach to separate analysis from execution.
In short: Initial Balance SMC-V3 is more than just an indicator—it’s a complete trading framework for mean reversion on index markets, where every signal emerges from a confluence of statistical, structural, and temporal factors.
Happy trading! 📈
EMP Probabilistic [CHE]Part 1 — For Traders (Practical Overview, no formulas)
What this tool does
EMP Probabilistic \ turns raw price action into a clean, probability-aware map. It builds two adaptive bands around the session open of a higher timeframe you choose (called the S-timeframe) and highlights a robust median threshold. At a glance you know:
Where price has recently tended to stay,
Whether current momentum sits above or below the median, and
A live Long vs. Short probability based on recent outcomes.
Why it improves decisions
Objective context in any regime: The nonparametric band comes straight from recent market behavior, without assuming a particular distribution.
Volatility-aware risk lens: The parametric band adapts to current volatility, helping you judge stretch and room for continuation or snap-back.
No lookahead: All stats update only after an S-bar is finished. That means the panel reflects information you truly had at that time.
How to read the chart
Orange band = empirical, distribution-free range derived from recent session returns (nonparametric).
Teal band = volatility-scaled range around the session open (parametric).
Median dots: green when close is above the median threshold, red when below.
Info panel: shows the active S-timeframe, window sizes, live coverage for both bands, the internal width parameter and volatility estimate, plus a one-line summary.
Probability label: “Long XX% • Short YY%” — a simple read on the recent balance of up vs. down S-bars.
How to use it (quick start)
1. Choose S-timeframe with Auto, Multiplier, or Manual. “Auto” scales your chart TF up to a sensible higher step.
2. Set alpha to control how tight the inner band should be. A typical value gives you a comfortable center zone without cutting off healthy trends.
3. Trade the context:
Trend-following: Prefer longs when price holds above the median; prefer shorts when it stays below.
Mean-reversion: Fade moves near the outer edges during ranges; look for reversion back toward the median.
Breakout filter: Require closes that push and hold beyond the volatility band for momentum plays; avoid noise when price chops inside the middle of the orange band.
Risk management made practical
Size positions relative to the teal band width to keep risk consistent across instruments and regimes.
For stops, many traders set them just beyond the opposite orange bound or use a fraction of the teal band.
Watch the panel’s coverage readouts and Brier score; when they deteriorate, the market may be shifting — reduce size or demand stronger confirmation.
Suggested presets
Scalping (Crypto/FX): Auto S-TF, alpha around a fifth, calibration window near two hundred, RS volatility, metrics window near two hundred.
Intraday Futures: Multiplier 3–5× your chart TF; similar alpha and window sizes; RS volatility is a solid default.
Swing/Equities: S-TF at least daily; test both RS and GK volatility modes; keep windows on the larger side for stability.
What makes it different
Two complementary lenses: a distribution-free read of recent behavior and a volatility-scaled read for risk and stretch.
Self-calibrating width: the parametric band quietly nudges its internal multiplier so actual coverage tracks your target.
Clean UX: grouped inputs, tooltips, an info panel that tells you what’s going on, and a simple median bias you can act on.
Repainting & timing
The logic updates only when the S-bar closes. On lower-timeframe charts you’ll see intrabar flips of the dot color — that’s just live price moving around. For strict signals, confirm on S-bar close.
Friendly note (not financial advice)
Use this as a context engine. It won’t predict the future, but it will keep you on the right side of probability and volatility more often, which is exactly where consistency starts.
Part 2 — Under the Hood (Conceptual, no formulas)
Data and timeframe design
The script works on a higher S-timeframe you select. It fetches the open, high, low, close, and time of that S-bar. Internally, it only updates its rolling windows after an S-bar has finished. It then pushes the previous S-bar’s statistics into its arrays. That design removes lookahead and keeps the metrics out-of-sample relative to the current S-bar.
Nonparametric band (distribution-free)
The orange band comes from the empirical distribution of recent session-level close-minus-open moves. The script keeps a rolling window, sorts a safe copy, and reads three key points: a lower bound, a median, and an upper bound. Because it’s based purely on observed outcomes, it adapts naturally to skew, fat tails, and regime shifts without assuming any particular shape. The orange range shows “where price has tended to live” lately on the chosen S-timeframe.
Parametric band (volatility-scaled)
The teal band models log-space variability around the session open using one of two well-known OHLC volatility estimators: Rogers–Satchell or Garman–Klass. Each estimator contributes a per-bar variance figure; the script averages these across the rolling window to form a current volatility scale. It then builds a symmetric band around the session open in price space. This gives you a volatility-aware notion of stretch that complements the distribution-free orange band.
Self-calibration of band width
The teal band has an internal width multiplier. After each completed S-bar the script checks whether the realized move stayed inside that band. If the band was too tight, the multiplier is nudged upward; if it was too loose, it’s eased downward. A simple learning rate governs how quickly it adapts. Over time this keeps the realized inside-coverage close to the target implied by your alpha setting, without you having to hand-tune anything.
Long/Short probability and calibration quality
The Long vs. Short probability is a transparent statistic: it’s just the recent fraction of up sessions in the rolling window. It is not a complex model — and that’s the point. You get an honest, intuitive read on directional tendency.
To monitor how well this simple probability lines up with reality, the script tracks a Brier-style score over a separate metrics window. Lower is better: it means your recent probability read has matched outcomes more closely.
Coverage tracking for both bands
The panel reports coverage for the orange band (nonparametric) and the teal band (parametric). These are rolling averages of how often recent S-bar moves landed inside each band. Watching these two numbers tells you whether market behavior still aligns with the recent distribution and with the current volatility model.
Why it doesn’t repaint
Because the arrays update only when an S-bar closes and only push the previous bar’s stats, the panel and metrics reflect information you had at the time. Intrabar visuals can change while a bar is forming — that’s expected — but the decision framework itself is anchored to completed S-bars.
Performance and practicality
The heaviest step is sorting a copy of the window for the nonparametric band. With typical window sizes this stays responsive on TradingView. The volatility estimators and rolling averages are lightweight. Inputs are grouped with clear tooltips so you can tune without hunting.
Limitations and good practice
In thin or gappy markets the bands can jump; consider a larger window or a higher S-timeframe.
During violent regime shifts, shorten the window and increase the learning rate slightly so the teal band catches up faster — but don’t overdo it, or you’ll chase noise.
The Long/Short probability is intentionally simple; it’s a context indicator, not a standalone signal factory. Combine it with structure, volume, or your execution rules.
Takeaway
Under the hood, the script blends empirical behavior and volatility scaling, then self-calibrates so the teal band’s real-world coverage stays near your target. You get clarity, consistency, and a dashboard that tells you when its own assumptions are holding up — exactly what you need to trade with confidence.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Gap Zones Pro - Price Action Confluence Indicator with Alerts█ OVERVIEW
Gap Zones Pro identifies and tracks price gaps - crucial areas where institutional interest and market imbalance create high-probability reaction zones. These gaps represent areas of strong initial buying/selling pressure that often act as magnets when price returns.
█ WHY GAPS MATTER IN TRADING
- Gaps reveal institutional footprints and areas of market imbalance
- When price returns to a gap, it often reaffirms the original directional bias
- Failed gap reactions can signal powerful reversals in the opposite direction
- Gaps provide excellent confluence when aligned with your trading narrative
- They act as natural support/resistance zones with clear risk/reward levels
█ KEY FEATURES
- Automatically detects and visualizes all gap zones on your chart
- Extends gaps to the right edge for easy monitoring
- Customizable number of gaps displayed (manage chart clarity)
- Minimum gap size filter to focus on significant gaps only
- Real-time alerts when price enters gap zones
- Color-coded visualization (green for gap ups, red for gap downs)
- Clean, professional appearance with adjustable transparency
█ HOW TO USE
1. Add to chart and adjust maximum gaps displayed based on your timeframe
2. Set minimum gap size % to filter out noise (0.5-1% recommended for stocks)
3. Watch for price approaching gap zones for potential reactions
4. Use gaps as confluence with other technical factors:
- Support/resistance levels
- Fibonacci retracements
- Supply/demand zones
- Trend lines and channels
5. Set alerts to notify you when price enters key gap zones
█ TRADING TIPS
- Gaps with strong contextual stories (earnings, news, breakouts) are most reliable
- Multiple gaps in the same area create stronger zones
- Unfilled gaps above price can act as resistance targets
- Unfilled gaps below price can act as support targets
- Watch for "gap and go" vs "gap fill" scenarios based on market context
█ SETTINGS
- Maximum Number of Gaps: Control how many historical gaps to display
- Minimum Gap Size %: Filter out insignificant gaps
- Colors: Customize gap up and gap down zone colors
- Transparency: Adjust visibility while maintaining chart readability
- Show Borders: Toggle gap zone borders on/off
- Alerts: Automatic notifications when price crosses gap boundaries
█ BEST TIMEFRAMES
Works on all timeframes but most effective on:
- Daily charts for swing trading
- 4H for intraday position trading
- 1H for day trading key levels
- Weekly for long-term investing
Remember: Gaps are most powerful when they align with your overall market thesis and other technical confluences. They should confirm your narrative, not define it.
---
Updates: Real-time gap detection | Alert system | Extended visualization | Performance optimized
Golden Cross Master Filter by Carlos ChavezForget noisy Golden/Death Cross signals.
This is the **Golden Cross Master Filter** – built for traders who demand institutional-level confirmation.
✅ Exact EMA cross points with circle markers
✅ ATR / ADX / DI+ / DI- / Volume filters
✅ Gap% detection
✅ Visual OK/X dashboard
✅ Instant BUY/SELL labels & ready-to-use alerts
Cut the noise. Trade only the strongest crosses. 🚀
Golden Cross Master Filter is a professional tool to detect Golden and Death Crosses with institutional-grade filtering.
🚀 Features:
- ✅ ATR / ADX / DI+/DI- / Volume conditions
- ✅ Gap% detection (daily gap between yesterday’s close and today’s open)
- ✅ Visual dashboard with OK/X status
- ✅ Exact circle markers at EMA cross points
- ✅ Ready-to-use BUY/SELL labels when filters are confirmed
- ✅ Built-in alerts for easy automation
This indicator is designed for intraday and swing traders who rely on EMA crosses but want to eliminate false signals.
It works across multiple timeframes (10m, 1h, 4h, Daily) and adapts to different trading styles.
Whether you trade CALLs/PUTs or just want stronger confirmation for Golden/Death Crosses, this filter helps you focus only on high-probability setups.
Round Levels (.000 endings)his indicator automatically detects and marks horizontal price levels that end with trailing zeros (psychological round numbers). Examples: 1.17000, 1.16900, 1.16800 etc. These levels often act as strong support or resistance zones because traders and institutions tend to place orders around round numbers.
Features:
Plots horizontal lines at configurable “round” intervals (e.g., .000, .050, .500).
Option to select how many levels above and below current price to display.
Labels each level with its exact price for easy identification.
Helps visualize psychological levels, institutional zones, and round-number trading strategies.
Use Cases:
Spotting potential reversal zones where many traders cluster orders.
Enhancing confluence with other tools (support/resistance, Fibonacci, supply/demand).
Works on all assets (Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Indices) and all timeframes.
Candlestick Themes NYSE Pro [GPXalgo]The Critical Role of Color in Trading Performance
Professional trading environments demand visual systems that support rapid decision-making while
minimizing cognitive load and visual fatigue. The NYSE trading desk color schemes have evolved
through decades of refinement, incorporating feedback from over 10,000 active traders and
quantitative performance analysis.
Key Design Principles
1. Contrast Optimization
Minimum contrast ratio of 7:1 for critical data elements against dark backgrounds (#0A0A0A to
#1C1C1C).
2. Semantic Consistency
Universal color language across all trading platforms and instruments.
3. Fatigue Mitigation
Spectral distribution optimized for extended viewing periods without degradation in pattern
recognition.
4. Information Hierarchy
Clear visual prioritization of price action, volume, and technical indicators.
Scientific Foundation
Visual Perception in Trading Contexts
Neurological Processing
The human visual cortex processes color information 60,000 times faster than text. In trading
contexts, this translates to:
• 0.13 seconds average recognition time for color-coded signals
• 0.45 seconds for text-based information
• 72% improvement in pattern recognition with optimized color schemes
Circadian Rhythm Consideration
Trading desk colors are calibrated to minimize melatonin suppression during extended sessions:
• Blue light emission reduced by 65% compared to standard displays
• Warm-spectrum alternatives for overnight sessions
• Adaptive brightness curves aligned with natural circadian cycles
Eye Strain Metrics
Laboratory studies (n=500 traders, 6-month period) demonstrate:
• 43% reduction in reported eye strain
• 31% decrease in headache frequency• 28% improvement in focus duration
• 17% increase in profitable trade execution
Implementation Standards
Display Calibration Requirements
Monitor Specifications
Minimum 1000:1 contrast ratio
sRGB coverage ≥ 99%
Delta E < 2.0 color accuracy
Brightness: 120-150 cd/m² (dark environment)
Color temperature: 5800K ± 200K
Multi-Monitor Consistency
• Maximum ΔE variance between displays: 1.5
• Synchronized brightness across array
• Uniform color profiles (ICC v4)
Accessibility Compliance
WCAG 2.1 Level AA Standards
Normal text: 4.5:1 contrast minimum
Large text: 3:1 contrast minimum
Interactive elements: 3:1 contrast minimum
Focus indicators: 3:1 contrast minimum
Colorblind Accommodation All critical information maintains distinguishability under:
• Protanopia (red-blind)
• Deuteranopia (green-blind)
• Tritanopia (blue-blind)
