[Floride] 4 Layers of Bollinger Shadow
This is the indicator I named 4LBS. That means four layers of bollinger shadow.
This is an indicator that I made to see how far past prices could affect the future prices.
And I found some very interesting and beautiful things about it, and I wanted to share them with you, so I publish this indicator.
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Hello, nice to meet you all. my name as a trader is Floride.
First of all, I am not good at English, so there may be many grammatically incorrect sentences below.
I ask for your understanding in advance. Thanks for your understanding.
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What is it?
bollinger Bands usually has one moving average line. And there's two bands that uses same period value of standard deviation as the former MA. And this indicator, by the way, has a 4 shadow bands
that uses twice,three,four,five time the value of the MA's period.
Appearance -
This indicator has four layers, and there are also other layers between them.
You can turn on or off all the shadow layers.
Uses of Indicator and Examples
examples of actual use
1. market strongness diagnosis
-It seems all layers of shadow has some degree resist/support forces.
This indicator has the 4th layer - "L4". (indicated by red lines).
I saw emergence of volatility quite frequently when this last layer breaks through.
When price breaks through this area or line, shade appear on the L4 layer in red. and red cross appear on the that point. This is I called Marlin signal.
If you saw red color shadow in this indicator, then the market may have quite high volatility.
(of course, there's not 100%. Please be careful about this.)
But I've also checked in quite several markets. when this volatility emerges, then also that market seems to started to building quite directional power afterwards.
I mean, after the marlin signal, market tends to have bigger volatility, and tends to go one direction.
again, it's not 100%. but probability is quite high.
But maybe depending on the type of market you need some adjustment.
Recommended values are M2-1.618, M3-2.618
Or M2-1, M3-2. default value is M2-1.618, M3-2.618
and also, if prices breakthrough the channels, or layers, It tends to break through the at once, in first bar. In other words, if price don't break through the first or second candle, it's very likely that the price won't break through channel for the time being.
2. market weakness diagnosis
Usually, without external momentum, the price converges to the average value and does not deviate from the band. And if price fails to break through the most inner first layer-"L1 - the green channel", In that case, the market is usually assumed to be weak, or has low volatility.
- you can set alarms on tuna, marlin signal. and you don't have to watch chart all the time.
3. Signals
I put two signals in this indicator.
One has the name "Tuna," and the second has the name "Marlin."
As you can already tell from the name's feeling, tuna is a weaker signal and marlin is a stronger signal.
Actual example of a signal
1. Tuna signal
- When the tuna signal appears, you can guess that the current market is generally not weak. or has quite good directional force. or medium volatility.
Below is important.
- If a tuna signal appears, there is a possibility that a marlin will appear later.
- In my opinion, it might be wise not to have a position without a tuna signal.
- Almost all of the marlin signal appeared shortly after the tuna signal appeared.
2. Marlin signal
- When marlin signal appears, with a high probability, volatility can increase large.
- In the backtesting of the stock, in some cases, the market moved quite frequently in the direction of the marlin signal.
- The emergence of marlin can be seen as a pretty strong indication of the emergences of direction.
ابحث في النصوص البرمجية عن "ha溢价率"
TARVIS Labs - Alts Macro Bottom/Top SignalsSCRIPT DESCRIPTION
PLEASE READ THROUGH THIS CAREFULLY.
This is a script specifically written to help provide indicators from a macro view for ALTS. This script needs to be run on the 1 day. It helps indicate when to accumulate alts, and when its in a bull run when this a bull run top beginning to form with warnings, and a indicator that a top is in. This is described further below.
NOTE - in order to accomodate most alts the script had to be broad enough in its indicators to cover many different scenarios. If you are trading a smaller altcoin I suggest taking a more conservative approach to accumulation.
FAQs:
1. Why is there no accumulation zone showing up before an uptrend?
This could be because the trend has been so strong for this coin that there hasn't been a strong enough signal to accumulate or this could be that the chart doesnt have enough historical data (needs over 2 years) for the indicators to flash green.
2. Why is there no tops shown for a chart Im looking at?
This is either because there isn't enough historical data (needs over 2 years) for the indicators to build or because the altcoin didnt perform as well as the rest of the market. The altcoin has to perform as well as the market over the length of the bull run in order for the signals to show. Typically an altcoin that shows sharp increases and sharp drops shortly after will not have signals show up.
3. The "Potential End of Bull Run Top Indicator" showed up but we weren't near the top yet, why is that?
The alts indicator has to work across many altcoins, and their trends are not all the same. This can lead to the indicator showing but not necessarily being the exact top. The data from the alts macro bottom/top signals should be paired with the "TARVIS Labs bitcoin macro bottom/top signals" indicator for BTC. The reasoning is because if the top is not showing that its in for Bitcoin its likely that the altcoin's top is also not in. You should use the two in tandem to know if the bull run top is very likely in.
ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - LIGHT GREEN
Description
When we look at the general crypto landscape, the 200d & 300d EMAs are extremely useful. We can use their cross and momentum in order to determine a bottom forming. If the price has fallen over 40% below the 200 day EMA and the 200 day EMA has crossed below the 300d EMA, its a downtrend with a steep fall, which could indicate a good time to accumulate. When we see the 200 day EMA's slope drop drastically (over 5% w/w) it is also a good signal to accumulate.
Strategy for Usage
For alts, the strategy can vary drastically. You need to take into account:
1. the market cap of the altcoin, is it a smaller market cap altcoin or a larger one?
2. historical trend, does it typically trend strongly with a smaller accumulation zone?
Once you've taken these into account you can form a strategy. For example, if the altcoin has had smaller accumulation zones historically you'll want to take advantage of the accumulation zones when they pop up and be more aggressive (say a 30 day accumulation). If the altcoin has historically had longer accumulation zones then you'll want to be more conservative with your strategy and potentially have a 100 day (or even longer) accumulation period. If the altcoin is a smaller market cap alt, you will want to also take that into account. You'll want to likely be more conservative,
STRONG BUY IN ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - DARK GREEN
Description
We can add to the bottoming signal by looking for strong downtrends inside the bottoming signal. We do this by seeing when the 36 day EMA has a slope decreasing by 2% day/day.
Strategy for Usage
These strong downtrend days can be used to add more to our accumulation strategy. We can add more on these days (ex. double what you were planning to on a typical accumulation day).
LOCAL TOP NEAR BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - RED
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend (4% increase w/w) we can look for significant loss of momentum in order to determine if a local top is in near a bull run top. This strategy uses a MACD with 9/36/9 config for the daily chart. We look for the signals momentum loss, when the slope becomes negative.
Strategy for Usage
Ideally the right strategy to use here is to exit the market when this indicator starts. When the indicator ends if the "Potential End of Bull Run Top Indicator" is not showing on the chart you can buy back into the market.
POTENTIAL END OF BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - DARK RED
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend (3% increase w/w), and a MACD config of 108/234/9 has a negative signal slope signifying a very large momentum loss, but the 1d 18 EMA is still above the 1d 63 EMA we show this signal.
Strategy for Usage
This is a strong indicator that the top is in, and it potentially being the bull run top. Because alts can vary strongly in their charts, this should be a strong warning but not necessarily a certainty that the bull run is over.
Moving Average Filters Add-on w/ Expanded Source Types [Loxx]Moving Average Filters Add-on w/ Expanded Source Types is a conglomeration of specialized and traditional moving averages that will be used in most of indicators that I publish moving forward. There are 39 moving averages included in this indicator as well as expanded source types including traditional Heiken Ashi and Better Heiken Ashi candles. You can read about the expanded source types clicking here . About half of these moving averages are closed source on other trading platforms. This indicator serves as a reference point for future public/private, open/closed source indicators that I publish to TradingView. Information about these moving averages was gleaned from various forex and trading forums and platforms as well as TASC publications and other assorted research publications.
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Included moving averages
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Linnsoft's ADXvma formula is a volatility-based moving average, with the volatility being determined by the value of the ADX indicator.
The ADXvma has the SMA in Chande's CMO replaced with an EMA, it then uses a few more layers of EMA smoothing before the "Volatility Index" is calculated.
A side effect is, those additional layers slow down the ADXvma when you compare it to Chande's Variable Index Dynamic Average VIDYA.
The ADXVMA provides support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends and will stay flat for longer, but will create some of the most accurate market signals when it decides to move.
Ahrens Moving Average
Richard D. Ahrens's Moving Average promises "Smoother Data" that isn't influenced by the occasional price spike. It works by using the Open and the Close in his formula so that the only time the Ahrens Moving Average will change is when the candlestick is either making new highs or new lows.
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
This Moving Average uses an elaborate smoothing formula and utilizes a 7 period Moving Average. It corresponds to fitting a second-order polynomial to seven consecutive observations. This moving average is rarely used in trading but is interesting as this Moving Average has been applied to diffusion indexes that tend to be very volatile.
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
The Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) combines a smoothed EMA and a single EMA to provide a low-lag indicator. It's primary purpose is to reduce the amount of "lagging entry" opportunities, and like all Moving Averages, the DEMA confirms uptrends whenever price crosses on top of it and closes above it, and confirms downtrends when the price crosses under it and closes below it - but with significantly less lag.
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
The Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average is a lot less laggy compared to a traditional EMA. It's also considered a leading indicator compared to the EMA, and is best utilized whenever smoothness and speed of reaction to market changes are required.
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
The EMA places more significance on recent data points and moves closer to price than the SMA (Simple Moving Average). It reacts faster to volatility due to its emphasis on recent data and is known for its ability to give greater weight to recent and more relevant data. The EMA is therefore seen as an enhancement over the SMA.
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
An Exponential Moving Average with a short look-back period.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
The Fractal Adaptive Moving Average by John Ehlers is an intelligent adaptive Moving Average which takes the importance of price changes into account and follows price closely enough to display significant moves whilst remaining flat if price ranges. The FRAMA does this by dynamically adjusting the look-back period based on the market's fractal geometry.
Hull Moving Average - HMA
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points.
IE/2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson
The IE/2 is a Moving Average that uses Linear Regression slope in its calculation to help with smoothing. It's a worthy Moving Average on it's own, even though it is the precursor and very early version of the famous "T3 Indicator".
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
A Moving Average where the slope of a linear regression line is simply integrated as it is fitted in a moving window of length N (natural numbers in maths) across the data. The derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. ILRS is not the same as a SMA (Simple Moving Average) of length N, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
Instantaneous Trendline
The Instantaneous Trendline is created by removing the dominant cycle component from the price information which makes this Moving Average suitable for medium to long-term trading.
Laguerre Filter
The Laguerre Filter is a smoothing filter which is based on Laguerre polynomials. The filter requires the current price, three prior prices, a user defined factor called Alpha to fill its calculation.
Adjusting the Alpha coefficient is used to increase or decrease its lag and it's smoothness.
Leader Exponential Moving Average
The Leader EMA was created by Giorgos E. Siligardos who created a Moving Average which was able to eliminate lag altogether whilst maintaining some smoothness. It was first described during his research paper "MACD Leader" where he applied this to the MACD to improve its signals and remove its lagging issue. This filter uses his leading MACD's "modified EMA" and can be used as a zero lag filter.
Linear Regression Value - LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average)
LSMA as a Moving Average is based on plotting the end point of the linear regression line. It compares the current value to the prior value and a determination is made of a possible trend, eg. the linear regression line is pointing up or down.
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
LWMA reacts to price quicker than the SMA and EMA. Although it's similar to the Simple Moving Average, the difference is that a weight coefficient is multiplied to the price which means the most recent price has the highest weighting, and each prior price has progressively less weight. The weights drop in a linear fashion.
McGinley Dynamic
John McGinley created this Moving Average to track price better than traditional Moving Averages. It does this by incorporating an automatic adjustment factor into its formula, which speeds (or slows) the indicator in trending, or ranging, markets.
McNicholl EMA
Dennis McNicholl developed this Moving Average to use as his center line for his "Better Bollinger Bands" indicator and was successful because it responded better to volatility changes over the standard SMA and managed to avoid common whipsaws.
Non lag moving average
The Non Lag Moving average follows price closely and gives very quick signals as well as early signals of price change. As a standalone Moving Average, it should not be used on its own, but as an additional confluence tool for early signals.
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation of the Linear Weighted Moving Average. The Linear Weighted Moving Average calculates the average by assigning different weight to each element in its calculation. The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation that allows weights to be changed to form a parabolic curve. It is done simply by using the Power parameter of this indicator.
Recursive Moving Trendline
Dennis Meyers's Recursive Moving Trendline uses a recursive (repeated application of a rule) polynomial fit, a technique that uses a small number of past values estimations of price and today's price to predict tomorrows price.
Simple Moving Average - SMA
The SMA calculates the average of a range of prices by adding recent prices and then dividing that figure by the number of time periods in the calculation average. It is the most basic Moving Average which is seen as a reliable tool for starting off with Moving Average studies. As reliable as it may be, the basic moving average will work better when it's enhanced into an EMA.
Sine Weighted Moving Average
The Sine Weighted Moving Average assigns the most weight at the middle of the data set. It does this by weighting from the first half of a Sine Wave Cycle and the most weighting is given to the data in the middle of that data set. The Sine WMA closely resembles the TMA (Triangular Moving Average).
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
The Smoothed Moving Average is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), but aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. SMMA takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Due to this, it's seen a an accurate yet laggy Moving Average.
Smoother
The Smoother filter is a faster-reacting smoothing technique which generates considerably less lag than the SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). It gives earlier signals but can also create false signals due to its earlier reactions. This filter is sometimes wrongly mistaken for the superior Jurik Smoothing algorithm.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother filter uses John Ehlers’s “Super Smoother” which consists of a a Two pole Butterworth filter combined with a 2-bar SMA (Simple Moving Average) that suppresses the 22050 Hz Nyquist frequency: A characteristic of a sampler, which converts a continuous function or signal into a discrete sequence.
Three pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the Two pole Butterworth) are both superior alternatives to the EMA and SMA. They aim at producing less lag whilst maintaining accuracy. The 2 pole filter will give you a better approximation for price, whereas the 3 pole filter has superior smoothing.
Three pole Ehlers smoother
The 3 pole Ehlers smoother works almost as close to price as the above mentioned 3 Pole Ehlers Butterworth. It acts as a strong baseline for signals but removes some noise. Side by side, it hardly differs from the Three Pole Ehlers Butterworth but when examined closely, it has better overshoot reduction compared to the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth.
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
The TMA is similar to the EMA but uses a different weighting scheme. Exponential and weighted Moving Averages will assign weight to the most recent price data. Simple moving averages will assign the weight equally across all the price data. With a TMA (Triangular Moving Average), it is double smoother (averaged twice) so the majority of the weight is assigned to the middle portion of the data.
The TMA and Sine Weighted Moving Average Filter are almost identical at times.
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
The TEMA uses multiple EMA calculations as well as subtracting lag to create a tool which can be used for scalping pullbacks. As it follows price closely, it's signals are considered very noisy and should only be used in extremely fast-paced trading conditions.
Two pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 2 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the three pole Butterworth mentioned above) is another filter that cuts out the noise and follows the price closely. The 2 pole is seen as a faster, leading filter over the 3 pole and follows price a bit more closely. Analysts will utilize both a 2 pole and a 3 pole Butterworth on the same chart using the same period, but having both on chart allows its crosses to be traded.
Two pole Ehlers smoother
A smoother version of the Two pole Ehlers Butterworth. This filter is the faster version out of the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth. It does a decent job at cutting out market noise whilst emphasizing a closer following to price over the 3 pole Ehlers.
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
Utilizing tick volume in MT4 (or real volume in MT5), this EMA will use the Volume reading in its decision to plot its moves. The more Volume it detects on a move, the more authority (confirmation) it has. And this EMA uses those Volume readings to plot its movements.
Studies show that tick volume and real volume have a very strong correlation, so using this filter in MT4 or MT5 produces very similar results and readings.
Zero Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Double Exponential Moving Average
John Ehlers's Zero Lag DEMA's aim is to eliminate the inherent lag associated with all trend following indicators which average a price over time. Because this is a Double Exponential Moving Average with Zero Lag, it has a tendency to overshoot and create a lot of false signals for swing trading. It can however be used for quick scalping or as a secondary indicator for confluence.
Zero Lag Moving Average
The Zero Lag Moving Average is described by its creator, John Ehlers, as a Moving Average with absolutely no delay. And it's for this reason that this filter will cause a lot of abrupt signals which will not be ideal for medium to long-term traders. This filter is designed to follow price as close as possible whilst de-lagging data instead of basing it on regular data. The way this is done is by attempting to remove the cumulative effect of the Moving Average.
Zero Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Just like the Zero Lag DEMA, this filter will give you the fastest signals out of all the Zero Lag Moving Averages. This is useful for scalping but dangerous for medium to long-term traders, especially during market Volatility and news events. Having no lag, this filter also has no smoothing in its signals and can cause some very bizarre behavior when applied to certain indicators.
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What are Heiken Ashi "better" candles?
The "better formula" was proposed in an article/memo by BNP-Paribas (In Warrants & Zertifikate, No. 8, August 2004 (a monthly German magazine published by BNP Paribas, Frankfurt), there is an article by Sebastian Schmidt about further development (smoothing) of Heikin-Ashi chart.)
They proposed to use the following:
(Open+Close)/2+(((Close-Open)/( High-Low ))*ABS((Close-Open)/2))
instead of using :
haClose = (O+H+L+C)/4
According to that document the HA representation using their proposed formula is better than the traditional formula.
What are traditional Heiken-Ashi candles?
The Heikin-Ashi technique averages price data to create a Japanese candlestick chart that filters out market noise.
Heikin-Ashi charts, developed by Munehisa Homma in the 1700s, share some characteristics with standard candlestick charts but differ based on the values used to create each candle. Instead of using the open, high, low, and close like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula based on two-period averages. This gives the chart a smoother appearance, making it easier to spots trends and reversals, but also obscures gaps and some price data.
Expanded generic source types:
Close = close
Open = open
High = high
Low = low
Median = hl2
Typical = hlc3
Weighted = hlcc4
Average = ohlc4
Average Median Body = (open+close)/2
Trend Biased = (see code, too complex to explain here)
Trend Biased (extreme) = (see code, too complex to explain here)
Included:
-Toggle bar color on/off
-Toggle signal line on/off
Trading Made Easy Pressure OscillatorAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
Those who have looked at my other indicators know that I am a big fan of Dr. Alexander Elder and John Carter. This is relevant to my trading style and to this indicator in general. While I understand it goes against TradingView rules generally to display other indicators while describing a new one, I need the Bollinger Bands, Bollinger Bands Width, and a secondary directional indicator to explain the full power of this indicator. In short, if this is strongly against the rules, I will edit the post as needed.
Those of you who are aware of John Carter are going to know this already, but for those who don’t, an explanation is necessary. John Carter is a relatively famous retail-turned-institutional (sort of) trader. He is the founder of TradetheMarkets, that later turned into SimplerTrading. Him and his company have a series of YouTube videos, he has made appearances on the MoneyShow, TastyTrade, and has authored a couple of books about trading. However, he is probably most famous for his “Squeeze” indicator that was originally launched on Thinkorswim and through his website but has now been incorporated into several trading platforms and even has a few open-source versions available here. In short, the Squeeze indicator looks to identify periods of consolidation and marry that with a momentum oscillator so you can position yourself in a quiet period before a large move. This in my opinion, is one of the best indicators an option trader can have, since options are priced both on time and volatility. To do this, the Squeeze identifies when the Bollinger Bands, a measure of price standard deviation, have contracted inside the Keltner Channels (a measure of the average range of a stock). This highlights something known as “the Squeeze”, when the 2x standard deviations (95% of all likely price movement using data from the past 20 periods) is less than the 1.5x average true range (ATR) of the stock over the same number of periods. These periods are when a stock is resting and in a period of consolidation and is generally followed by another large move once it has rested long enough. The momentum oscillator is used to determine the direction of this next move.
While I think this is one of the best indicators ever made, it is not without its pitfalls. I find that the “Squeeze” periods sometimes take too long to setup (something that was addressed by John and released in a new indicator, the Squeeze Pro, but even that is still slowish) and that the momentum oscillator was also a bit slow. They used a linear regression formula to track momentum, which can lag considerably at times. Collectively, this meant that getting into moves a few candles late was not uncommon or someone solely trading squeeze setups could have missed very good trade opportunities.
To improve on this, I present, the Trading Made Easy Pressure Oscillator. This more accurately identifies when volatility is reducing and the trading range is likely to contract, increasing the “pressure” on the price. This is often marked several candles before a “Squeeze” has started. To identify these ranges, I applied a 21-period exponential moving average to the Bollinger Bands Width indicator (BBW). As mentioned above, the Bollinger Bands measure the 2x standard deviation of price, typically based on a 20-period SMA. When the BBs expand, it marks periods of high volatility, when they contract, conversely, periods of low volatility. Therefore, applying an EMA to the BBW indicator allows us to confidently mark when volatility has slowed down earlier than traditional methods. The second improvement I made was using the Absolute Price oscillator instead of a linear regression-style oscillator. The APO is very similar to a MACD, it measures the difference between two exponential moving averages, here the 8 and 21 (Fibonacci EMAs). However, I find the APO to be smoother than the MACD, yet more reactive than the linear regression-style oscillators to get you into moves earlier.
Uses:
1) Buying before a bigger than expected move. This is especially relevant for options traders since theta decay will often eat away much of our profits while we wait for a large enough price move to offset the time decay. Here, we buy a call option/shares when the momentum oscillator matches the longer-term trend (i.e. the APO crosses over the zero line when price is above the 200-day EMA, and vice versa for puts/shorting the stock). This coincides with Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen Trading System, that we are aligning ourselves with the path of least resistance. We want to do this when price is currently in an increasing pressure situation (i.e. volatility is contracting) to make sure we are buying an option when premium and Implied Volatility is low so we can get a better price and have a better risk to reward ratio. Low volatility is denoted by a purple dot, high volatility a blue dot along the midline of the indicator. A scalper or short-term swing trader may look to exit when the blue dots turn purple signalling a likely end to a move. A longer-term trend trader can look to other exit scenarios, such as a cross of the oscillator below the zero line, signalling to go short, or using a moving average as a trailing stop.
2) Sell premium after a larger than expected move has finished. After a larger than expected move has completed (a series of blue dots is followed by a purple dot), use this time to sell theta-driven options strategies such as straddles, strangles, iron condors, calendar spreads, or iron butterflies, anything that benefits from contracting volatility and stagnating prices. This is useful here since reducing volatility typically means a contraction of prices and the reduced likelihood of a move outside of the normal range.
3) Divergences. This indicator is sensitive enough to highlight divergences. I personally don’t use it as such as I prefer to trend trade vs. reversion trade. Use at your own risk, but they are there.
In summary, this indicator improves upon the famous Squeeze indicator by increasing the speed at which periods of consolidation are marked and trend identification. I hope you enjoy it.
Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram [peregringlk]Introduction
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This study is intented to be used in combination with my other study "Other alts compensated cap". Read its description, in particular, it's rationale, to understand why I have removed the big capitalized altcoins from these studies.
The middle indicator in the image is that other study, while the indicator in the buttom of the image is that one.
It shows, in form of histogram, the BTC capitalization change rate (per candle, using closes) of the "OTHERS" altcoins together with the inverse of the BTCUSD price change rate per candle.
NOTE: I call the change rate to the multiplier factor of price from bar to bar. For example, a change rate of 1.20 means +20% respect to "yesterday", and a change rate of 0.80 means -20%.
The idea is to know what are altcoin markets (against BTC) doing after each BTC price change.
Definitions
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I will use ALT from now one as the name of an index or fictional coin that represents the average price of all other altcoins combined. I'll use then ALTUSD to represent the price against USD of such fictional coin (= the OTHERS capitalization, as if the USD capitalization of altcoins were the USD price of ALT), and ALTBTC to represent the same price but against BTC (calculated by taking ALTUSD/BITSTAMP:BTCUSD; the choosing of BITSTAMP is because it's the market with a longer history in tradingview).
Since I use the "OTHERS" security, I cannot know the real altcoin index so I can only estimate by using the capitalization. CIX100 could be a solution, but it is too recent in time as to inspect past price actions.
Description
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For example, let's assume BTCUSD decreases by 20% today. It would cause a fall in ALTUSD of 20% (just maths). So, what should it happen in ALTBTC to preserve the original ALTUSD price? People should buy alts in BTC markets by a factor of 1/0.8 = 1.25. Or in other words, unless there are a +25% grow in ALTBTC, ALTUSD would see a decrease in value.
This is what the histogram shows. The red columns shows the ALTBTC change rate per candle, while each green column shows what is the required change rate in ALTBTC required to preserve its ALTUSD value (capitalization). In other words, the green columns are the "targets" to preserve USD capitalization in ALTBTC, while the red histogram shows the actual changes.
Also, it shows two curves. There are just the change rate accumulation during some customizable interval (the same for both lines, and 7 by default; or the "week" for daily candles).
The green line is the accumulated "target" change rate within that period of time (the accumulated product of the last `interval` change rates), and the red line is the actual change rate for the same `interval` candles.
Interpretation
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If red column values are bigger than the green ones (green column is negative, and red column is positive; or both are positives but the red one "put outs", or both are negative but the red column doesn't "put out"), OTHERS USD capitalization has increased.
If red column values are lower than the green ones (green column is positive and red column is negative; or both are positives but the red one doesn't "put out"; or both are negative but the red column "put outs"), OTHERS USD capitalization has decreased.
The same for the continuous lines: if the red line is above the green one, OTHERS USD capitalization has increased during "the past week". Otherwise, it has decreased.
The added value of this indicator is that it allows you to know "why". For example, if a green column is positive, and its corresponding red column is positive as well, but below the green one, the capitalization has decreased but BECAUSE the btc price has fallen, not because there was a sellof in alts. Actually, there was some buys (the ALTBTC price increased); it just it was not enough to counteract the btc fall.
That can be clearly seen in the remarked candle in the plot, the "coronavirus" sellof. The BTCUSD fall was huge (the hugest in BTC history), and the green column is telling you that to preserve the capitalization a lot of buys were required. However, that didn't happen. Actually, the OTHER alts were pretty quiet (the red column is tiny), causing a massive indirect loss of capitalization.
Also, with the curves, you can know if there was a total gainning or loss of capitalization during the past few days or candles. Also you can try to spot the beginning of alts seasons by crosses between red and green lines: if the red lines crosses above the green one (because there was a continuous sequence of red columns above green ones), it means that, potentially, were are at the beginning of an alt season because people are accumulating.
Table of cases
===========
- if the green column is positive (BTCUSD is down)
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC buys are stronger than required by arbitrage and have counteracted and overcome the BTC fall.
- shorter than the green column: there have been some buys but not enough, so the BTCUSD fall has not been fully counteracted.
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down): the loss is double: BTCUSD have lost value + ALTBTC is bleeding.
- If the green column is negative (BTCUSD is up)
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC sells are so strong that have counteracted the BTC increase in value, causing a loss of USD value.
- shorter than the green column: there have been sells but overall the ALTUSD price has increased.
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up): the gain is double: BTCUSD has gain value + ALTBTC is also growing.
FvgCalculations█ OVERVIEW
This library provides the core calculation engine for identifying Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) across different timeframes and for processing their interaction with price. It includes functions to detect FVGs on both the current chart and higher timeframes, as well as to check for their full or partial mitigation.
█ CONCEPTS
The library's primary functions revolve around the concept of Fair Value Gaps and their lifecycle.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Identification
An FVG, or imbalance, represents a price range where buying or selling pressure was significant enough to cause a rapid price movement, leaving an "inefficiency" in the market. This library identifies FVGs based on three-bar patterns:
Bullish FVG: Forms when the low of the current bar (bar 3) is higher than the high of the bar two periods prior (bar 1). The FVG is the space between the high of bar 1 and the low of bar 3.
Bearish FVG: Forms when the high of the current bar (bar 3) is lower than the low of the bar two periods prior (bar 1). The FVG is the space between the low of bar 1 and the high of bar 3.
The library provides distinct functions for detecting FVGs on the current (Low Timeframe - LTF) and specified higher timeframes (Medium Timeframe - MTF / High Timeframe - HTF).
FVG Mitigation
Mitigation refers to price revisiting an FVG.
Full Mitigation: An FVG is considered fully mitigated when price completely closes the gap. For a bullish FVG, this occurs if the current low price moves below or touches the FVG's bottom. For a bearish FVG, it occurs if the current high price moves above or touches the FVG's top.
Partial Mitigation (Entry/Fill): An FVG is partially mitigated when price enters the FVG's range but does not fully close it. The library tracks the extent of this fill. For a bullish FVG, if the current low price enters the FVG from above, that low becomes the new effective top of the remaining FVG. For a bearish FVG, if the current high price enters the FVG from below, that high becomes the new effective bottom of the remaining FVG.
FVG Interaction
This refers to any instance where the current bar's price range (high to low) touches or crosses into the currently unfilled portion of an active (visible and not fully mitigated) FVG.
Multi-Timeframe Data Acquisition
To detect FVGs on higher timeframes, specific historical bar data (high, low, and time of bars at indices and relative to the higher timeframe's last completed bar) is required. The requestMultiTFBarData function is designed to fetch this data efficiently.
█ CALCULATIONS AND USE
The functions in this library are typically used in a sequence to manage FVGs:
1. Data Retrieval (for MTF/HTF FVGs):
Call requestMultiTFBarData() with the desired higher timeframe string (e.g., "60", "D").
This returns a tuple of htfHigh1, htfLow1, htfTime1, htfHigh3, htfLow3, htfTime3.
2. FVG Detection:
For LTF FVGs: Call detectFvg() on each confirmed bar. It uses high , low, low , and high along with barstate.isconfirmed.
For MTF/HTF FVGs: Call detectMultiTFFvg() using the data obtained from requestMultiTFBarData().
Both detection functions return an fvgObject (defined in FvgTypes) if an FVG is found, otherwise na. They also can classify FVGs as "Large Volume" (LV) if classifyLV is true and the FVG size (top - bottom) relative to the tfAtr (Average True Range of the respective timeframe) meets the lvAtrMultiplier.
3. FVG State Updates (on each new bar for existing FVGs):
First, check for overall price interaction using fvgInteractionCheck(). This function determines if the current bar's high/low has touched or entered the FVG's currentTop or currentBottom.
If interaction occurs and the FVG is not already mitigated:
Call checkMitigation() to determine if the FVG has been fully mitigated by the current bar's currentHigh and currentLow. If true, the FVG's isMitigated status is updated.
If not fully mitigated, call checkPartialMitigation() to see if the price has further entered the FVG. This function returns the newLevel to which the FVG has been filled (e.g., currentLow for a bullish FVG, currentHigh for bearish). This newLevel is then used to update the FVG's currentTop or currentBottom.
The calling script (e.g., fvgMain.c) is responsible for storing and managing the array of fvgObject instances and passing them to these update functions.
█ NOTES
Bar State for LTF Detection: The detectFvg() function relies on barstate.isconfirmed to ensure FVG detection is based on closed bars, preventing FVGs from being detected prematurely on the currently forming bar.
Higher Timeframe Data (lookahead): The requestMultiTFBarData() function uses lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_on. This means it can access historical data from the higher timeframe that corresponds to the current bar on the chart, even if the higher timeframe bar has not officially closed. This is standard for multi-timeframe analysis aiming to plot historical HTF data accurately on a lower timeframe chart.
Parameter Typing: Functions like detectMultiTFFvg and detectFvg infer the type for boolean (classifyLV) and numeric (lvAtrMultiplier) parameters passed from the main script, while explicitly typed series parameters (like htfHigh1, currentAtr) expect series data.
fvgObject Dependency: The FVG detection functions return fvgObject instances, and fvgInteractionCheck takes an fvgObject as a parameter. This UDT is defined in the FvgTypes library, making it a dependency for using FvgCalculations.
ATR for LV Classification: The tfAtr (for MTF/HTF) and currentAtr (for LTF) parameters are expected to be the Average True Range values for the respective timeframes. These are used, if classifyLV is enabled, to determine if an FVG's size qualifies it as a "Large Volume" FVG based on the lvAtrMultiplier.
MTF/HTF FVG Appearance Timing: When displaying FVGs from a higher timeframe (MTF/HTF) on a lower timeframe (LTF) chart, users might observe that the most recent MTF/HTF FVG appears one LTF bar later compared to its appearance on a native MTF/HTF chart. This is an expected behavior due to the detection mechanism in `detectMultiTFFvg`. This function uses historical bar data from the MTF/HTF (specifically, data equivalent to `HTF_bar ` and `HTF_bar `) to identify an FVG. Therefore, all three bars forming the FVG on the MTF/HTF must be fully closed and have shifted into these historical index positions relative to the `request.security` call from the LTF chart before the FVG can be detected and displayed on the LTF. This ensures that the MTF/HTF FVG is identified based on confirmed, closed bars from the higher timeframe.
█ EXPORTED FUNCTIONS
requestMultiTFBarData(timeframe)
Requests historical bar data for specific previous bars from a specified higher timeframe.
It fetches H , L , T (for the bar before last) and H , L , T (for the bar three periods prior)
from the requested timeframe.
This is typically used to identify FVG patterns on MTF/HTF.
Parameters:
timeframe (simple string) : The higher timeframe to request data from (e.g., "60" for 1-hour, "D" for Daily).
Returns: A tuple containing: .
- htfHigh1 (series float): High of the bar at index 1 (one bar before the last completed bar on timeframe).
- htfLow1 (series float): Low of the bar at index 1.
- htfTime1 (series int) : Time of the bar at index 1.
- htfHigh3 (series float): High of the bar at index 3 (three bars before the last completed bar on timeframe).
- htfLow3 (series float): Low of the bar at index 3.
- htfTime3 (series int) : Time of the bar at index 3.
detectMultiTFFvg(htfHigh1, htfLow1, htfTime1, htfHigh3, htfLow3, htfTime3, tfAtr, classifyLV, lvAtrMultiplier, tfType)
Detects a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on a higher timeframe (MTF/HTF) using pre-fetched bar data.
Parameters:
htfHigh1 (float) : High of the first relevant bar (typically high ) from the higher timeframe.
htfLow1 (float) : Low of the first relevant bar (typically low ) from the higher timeframe.
htfTime1 (int) : Time of the first relevant bar (typically time ) from the higher timeframe.
htfHigh3 (float) : High of the third relevant bar (typically high ) from the higher timeframe.
htfLow3 (float) : Low of the third relevant bar (typically low ) from the higher timeframe.
htfTime3 (int) : Time of the third relevant bar (typically time ) from the higher timeframe.
tfAtr (float) : ATR value for the higher timeframe, used for Large Volume (LV) FVG classification.
classifyLV (bool) : If true, FVGs will be assessed to see if they qualify as Large Volume.
lvAtrMultiplier (float) : The ATR multiplier used to define if an FVG is Large Volume.
tfType (series tfType enum from no1x/FvgTypes/1) : The timeframe type (e.g., types.tfType.MTF, types.tfType.HTF) of the FVG being detected.
Returns: An fvgObject instance if an FVG is detected, otherwise na.
detectFvg(classifyLV, lvAtrMultiplier, currentAtr)
Detects a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the current (LTF - Low Timeframe) chart.
Parameters:
classifyLV (bool) : If true, FVGs will be assessed to see if they qualify as Large Volume.
lvAtrMultiplier (float) : The ATR multiplier used to define if an FVG is Large Volume.
currentAtr (float) : ATR value for the current timeframe, used for LV FVG classification.
Returns: An fvgObject instance if an FVG is detected, otherwise na.
checkMitigation(isBullish, fvgTop, fvgBottom, currentHigh, currentLow)
Checks if an FVG has been fully mitigated by the current bar's price action.
Parameters:
isBullish (bool) : True if the FVG being checked is bullish, false if bearish.
fvgTop (float) : The top price level of the FVG.
fvgBottom (float) : The bottom price level of the FVG.
currentHigh (float) : The high price of the current bar.
currentLow (float) : The low price of the current bar.
Returns: True if the FVG is considered fully mitigated, false otherwise.
checkPartialMitigation(isBullish, currentBoxTop, currentBoxBottom, currentHigh, currentLow)
Checks for partial mitigation of an FVG by the current bar's price action.
It determines if the price has entered the FVG and returns the new fill level.
Parameters:
isBullish (bool) : True if the FVG being checked is bullish, false if bearish.
currentBoxTop (float) : The current top of the FVG box (this might have been adjusted by previous partial fills).
currentBoxBottom (float) : The current bottom of the FVG box (similarly, might be adjusted).
currentHigh (float) : The high price of the current bar.
currentLow (float) : The low price of the current bar.
Returns: The new price level to which the FVG has been filled (e.g., currentLow for a bullish FVG).
Returns na if no new partial fill occurred on this bar.
fvgInteractionCheck(fvg, highVal, lowVal)
Checks if the current bar's price interacts with the given FVG.
Interaction means the price touches or crosses into the FVG's
current (possibly partially filled) range.
Parameters:
fvg (fvgObject type from no1x/FvgTypes/1) : The FVG object to check.
Its isMitigated, isVisible, isBullish, currentTop, and currentBottom fields are used.
highVal (float) : The high price of the current bar.
lowVal (float) : The low price of the current bar.
Returns: True if price interacts with the FVG, false otherwise.
Dynamic Volume Clusters with Retest Signals (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Dynamic Volume Clusters with Retest Signals indicator is designed to detect key Volume Clusters and provide Retest Signals. This tool is specifically engineered for traders looking to capitalize on volume-based trends, reversals, and key price retest points.
The indicator seamlessly combines volume analysis, dynamic cluster calculations, and retest signal logic to present a comprehensive trading framework. It adapts to market conditions, identifying clusters of volume activity and signaling when the price retests critical zones.
█ How It Works
⚪ Volume Cluster Detection
The indicator dynamically calculates volume clusters by analyzing the highest and lowest price points within a specified lookback period.
Cluster Logic:
Bright Lines (Strong Red/Green):
These indicate that the price has frequently revisited these levels, creating a dense cluster.
Such areas serve as support or resistance, where significant historical trading has occurred, often acting as barriers to price movement.
Traders should consider these levels as potential reversal zones or consolidation points.
Faded or Darker Lines:
These lines indicate areas where the price has less historical activity, suggesting weaker clustering.
These zones have less market memory and are more likely to break, supporting trend continuation and rapid price movement.
⚪ Candle Color Logic (Market Memory)
Blue Candles (High Cluster Density):
Candles turn blue when the price has revisited a particular area many times.
This signals a highly clustered zone, likely to act as a barrier, creating consolidation or range phases.
These areas indicate strong market memory, potentially rejecting price attempts to break through.
Green or Red Candles (Low Cluster Density):
Once the price breaks out of these dense clusters, the candles turn green (bullish) or red (bearish).
This suggests the price has moved into a less clustered territory, where the path forward is clearer and trends are likely to extend without immediate resistance.
⚪ Retest Signal Logic
The indicator identifies critical retest points where the price crosses a cluster boundary and then reverses. These points are essential for traders looking to catch continuation or reversal setups.
⚪ Dynamic Price Clustering
The indicator dynamically adapts the clustering logic based on price movement and volume shifts.
Uses a dynamic moving average (VPMA) to maintain adaptive cluster levels.
Integrates a Kalman Filter for smoothing, reducing noise, and improving trend clarity.
Automatically updates as new data is received, keeping the clusters relevant in real-time.
█ How to Use
⚪ Trend Following & Reversal Detection
Use Retest signals to identify potential trend continuation or reversal points.
⚪ Trading Volume Clusters and Market Memory
Identify Key Zones:
Focus on bright, saturated cluster lines (strong red or green) as they indicate high market memory, where price has spent significant time in the past.
These zones are likely to exhibit a more choppy market. Apply range or mean reversion strategies.
Spot Potential Breakouts:
Faded or darker cluster lines indicate areas of low market memory, where the price has moved quickly and spent less time.
Use these areas to identify possible trend setups, as they represent lower resistance to price movement.
⚪ Interpreting Candle Colors for Market Phases
Blue Candles (High Cluster Density):
When candles turn blue, it signals that the price has revisited this area multiple times, creating a dense cluster.
These zones often trap price movement, leading to consolidations or range phases.
Use these areas as caution zones, where price can slow down or reverse.
Green or Red Candles (Low Cluster Density):
Once the price breaks out of these clustered zones, the candles turn green (bullish) or red (bearish), indicating lower market memory.
This signals a trend initiation with less immediate resistance, ideal for momentum and breakout trades.
Use these signals to identify emerging trends and ride the momentum.
█ Settings
Range Lookback Period: Sets the number of bars for calculating the range.
Zone Width (% of Range): Determines how wide the volume clusters are relative to the calculated range.
Volume Line Colors: Customize the appearance of bullish and bearish lines.
Retest Signals: Toggle the appearance of Triangle Up/Down retest markers.
Minimum Bars for Retest: Define the minimum number of bars required before a retest is valid.
Maximum Bars for Retest: Set the maximum number of bars within which a retest can occur.
Price Cluster Period: Adjusts the sensitivity of the dynamic clustering logic.
Cluster Confirmation: Controls how tightly the clusters respond to price action.
Price Cluster Start/Peak: Sets the minimum and maximum touches required to fully form a cluster.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
AI Momentum [YinYang]Overview:
AI Momentum is a kernel function based momentum Indicator. It uses Rational Quadratics to help smooth out the Moving Averages, this may give them a more accurate result. This Indicator has 2 main uses, first it displays ‘Zones’ that help you visualize the potential movement areas and when the price is out of bounds (Overvalued or Undervalued). Secondly it creates signals that display the momentum of the current trend.
The Zones are composed of the Highest Highs and Lowest lows turned into a Rational Quadratic over varying lengths. These create our Rational High and Low zones. There is however a second zone. The second zone is composed of the avg of the Inner High and Inner Low zones (yellow line) and the Rational Quadratic of the current Close. This helps to create a second zone that is within the High and Low bounds that may represent momentum changes within these zones. When the Rationalized Close crosses above the High and Low Zone Average it may signify a bullish momentum change and vice versa when it crosses below.
There are 3 different signals created to display momentum:
Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals display when there is current bullish or bearish momentum happening within the trend. When the momentum changes there will likely be a lull where there are neither Bullish or Bearish momentum signals. These signals may be useful to help visualize when the momentum has started and stopped for both the bulls and the bears. Bullish Momentum is calculated by checking if the Rational Quadratic Close > Rational Quadratic of the Highest OHLC4 smoothed over a VWMA. The Bearish Momentum is calculated by checking the opposite.
Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals occur when the bar has Bullish or Bearish Momentum and also has an Rationalized RSI greater or less than a certain level. Bullish is >= 57 and Bearish is <= 43. There is also the option to ‘Factor Volume’ into these signals. This means, the Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals will only occur when the Rationalized Volume > VWMA Rationalized Volume as well as the previously mentioned factors above. This can be useful for removing ‘clutter’ as volume may dictate when these momentum changes will occur, but it can also remove some of the useful signals and you may miss the swing too if the volume just was low. Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum may dictate when a momentum change will occur. Remember, they are OVERLY Bullish and Bearish, meaning there is a chance a correction may occur around these signals.
Bull and Bear Crosses. These signals occur when the Rationalized Close crosses the Gaussian Close that is 2 bars back. These signals may show when there is a strong change in momentum, but be careful as more often than not they’re predicting that the momentum may change in the opposite direction.
Tutorial:
As we can see in the example above, generally what happens is we get the regular Bullish or Bearish momentum, followed by the Rationalized Close crossing the Zone average and finally the Overly Bullish or Bearish signals. This is normally the order of operations but isn’t always how it happens as sometimes momentum changes don’t make it that far; also the Rationalized Close and Zone Average don’t follow any of the same math as the Signals which can result in differing appearances. The Bull and Bear Crosses are also quite sporadic in appearance and don’t generally follow any sort of order of operations. However, they may occur as a Predictor between Bullish and Bearish momentum, signifying the beginning of the momentum change.
The Bull and Bear crosses may be a Predictor of momentum change. They generally happen when there is no Bullish or Bearish momentum happening; and this helps to add strength to their prediction. When they occur during momentum (orange circle) there is a less likely chance that it will happen, and may instead signify the exact opposite; it may help predict a large spike in momentum in the direction of the Bullish or Bearish momentum. In the case of the orange circle, there is currently Bearish Momentum and therefore the Bull Cross may help predict a large momentum movement is about to occur in favor of the Bears.
We have disabled signals here to properly display and talk about the zones. As you can see, Rationalizing the Highest Highs and Lowest Lows over 2 different lengths creates inner and outer bounds that help to predict where parabolic movement and momentum may move to. Our Inner and Outer zones are great for seeing potential Support and Resistance locations.
The secondary zone, which can cross over and change from Green to Red is also a very important zone. Let's zoom in and talk about it specifically.
The Middle Zone Crosses may help deduce where parabolic movement and strong momentum changes may occur. Generally what may happen is when the cross occurs, you will see parabolic movement to the High / Low zones. This may be the Inner zone but can sometimes be the outer zone too. The hard part is sometimes it can be a Fakeout, like displayed with the Blue Circle. The Cross doesn’t mean it may move to the opposing side, sometimes it may just be predicting Parabolic movement in a general sense.
When we turn the Momentum Signals back on, we can see where the Fakeout occurred that it not only almost hit the Inner Low Zone but it also exhibited 2 Overly Bearish Signals. Remember, Overly bearish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bulls may occur soon and overly Bullish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bears may occur soon.
You may be wondering, well what does “may occur soon” mean and how do we tell?
The purpose of the momentum signals is not only to let you know when Momentum has occurred and when it is still prevalent. It also matters A LOT when it has STOPPED!
In this example above, we look at when the Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum has STOPPED. As you can see, when the Overly Bullish or Bearish Momentum stopped may be a strong predictor of potential momentum change in the opposing direction.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully this Indicator has been helpful for showing you where momentum is occurring and help predict how far it may move. We have been dabbling with and are planning on releasing a Strategy based on this Indicator shortly.
Settings:
1. Momentum:
Show Signals: Sometimes it can be difficult to visualize the zones with signals enabled.
Factor Volume: Factor Volume only applies to Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals. It's when the Volume is > VWMA Volume over the Smoothing Length.
Zone Inside Length: The Zone Inside is the Inner zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Zone Outside Length: The Zone Outside is the Outer zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Smoothing length: Smoothing length is the length used to smooth out our Bullish and Bearish signals, along with our Overly Bullish and Overly Bearish Signals.
2. Kernel Settings:
Lookback Window: The number of bars used for the estimation. This is a sliding value that represents the most recent historical bars. Recommended range: 3-50.
Relative Weighting: Relative weighting of time frames. As this value approaches zero, the longer time frames will exert more influence on the estimation. As this value approaches infinity, the behavior of the Rational Quadratic Kernel will become identical to the Gaussian kernel. Recommended range: 0.25-25.
Start Regression at Bar: Bar index on which to start regression. The first bars of a chart are often highly volatile, and omission of these initial bars often leads to a better overall fit. Recommended range: 5-25.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Elder Impulse System + ATR BandsDisregard the above chart, I am not sure why it isn't showing the one I want, which is linked below:
This is as far as I can tell the closest representation to Dr. Alexander Elder's updated "Elder Impulse System" that has added ATR-volatility bands up to 3x deviations from price. I got the idea from watching this recent video (www.youtube.com) of Dr. Elder reviewing some recent trades and noticed he had updated his system from his original books. The Impulse System colour coding was inspired by AstralLoverFlow and LazyBear. ATR Bands are pre-programmed Keltner Channels with some modifications such as filing in the ATR Zones with user-selected colour bands and modifying the ATR value to better suit the volatility of the market being traded.
The script has several components, which I will detail below:
Exponential Moving Averages:
1) A 13-period EMA that is used as a staple in all of Dr. Elder's technical analysis. He uses this EMA as the basis for all of his indicators and why it is included here.
2) A 26-period EMA which can be used as a base-line of sorts to filter when to go long or when to go short. For instance, price over the 26-EMA, price is strong and the rally upwards is likely to continue, underneath it, price is weak and likely to continue downwards for a time.
Volatility Bands:
By definition these are nothing more than 3 separate Keltner Channels of a 13-period EMA each set to one additional multiplier from the moving average. This gives us a 1x, 2x, and 3x multiplier of average volatility from the 13-period EMA based on a 14-period Average True Range (ATR) reading. The ATR was chosen as it accommodates price gaps and also is the standard formula calculation in TradingView. The values of the bands cannot be adjusted but the colour coding of them can be.
Elder Impulse System:
These colour-coded bars show you the strength and direction of the current chart resolution, calculated by the slope of a 13-period EMA and the slope of a MACD histogram. These are used not as a buying or selling recommendation alone but as trend filters, as per Dr. Elder's own description of them.
Green Bars = The 13-period EMA is sloping positively and the MACD histogram is rising compared to previous bars. The trader should only consider buying/long opportunities when a green bar is most recent.
Red Bars = The 13-period EMA is sloping negatively and the MACD histogram is falling compared to previous bars. The trader should only consider selling/short opportunities when a red bar is most recent.
Blue Bars = The 13-period EMA and the MACD histogram are not aligned. One of the indicators is sloping opposite to the other indicator. These are known as indecision bars and are typically seen near the end of a previously established trend. The trader can choose to wait for either a green or red bar to shape their trading bias if they are more risk-averse while a counter-trend trader may decide to try opening a position against the currently-established trend.
How To Trade the System:
This system is unique in that it is so versatile and will fit the styles of many traders, be it trend following traders (generally the original Elder Impulse System design) or mean-reversion/counter-trend trading (the original Keltner Channel design). None of the examples below or in the chart above are financial advice and are just there for demonstration purposes only.
1) The most basic signal given would be the moving average cross up or down. A cross of the 13-EMA over the 26-EMA signals upward trend strength and the trader could look for buying opportunities. Conversely, the 13-EMA under the 26-EMA shows downward trend strength and the trader could look for selling opportunities.
2) Following the Elder Impulse system in conjunction with the EMAs. Look for long opportunities when a green bar is printed and price is over both of the 13- and 26-period EMAs. Look for short opportunities when a red bar is printed and price is below both of the 13- and 26-period EMAs. Keep in mind this does not necessarily need a moving average cross to be viable, a green or red bar over both EMAs is a valid signal in this system, usually. Examine price more closely for better entry signals when a blue bar is printed and price is either above or below both EMAs if you are a trend trader. This is how Dr. Elder originally intended the system to be used in conjunction with his famous Triple Screen Trading System. I am not going into detail here as it is a deep subject but I would suggest an interested trader to examine this Triple Screen System further as it is widely accepted as a strong strategy.
3) Mean Reversion and Counter-Trend Trading. Dr. Elder mentions that the zone between the two EMAs is called the Value Zone. A mean reversion trader could look for buying opportunities if price has generally been in an uptrend and falls back to value, conversely, they could look for shorting opportunities if price has generally been in a downtrend and rises back to value. These are your very basic pull backs found in trends that create your higher lows in an uptrend or your lower highs in a downtrend. A mean reversion/scalper trader may also look to use the upper and lower most ATR bands as an indication of price being overbought or oversold and could look to enter a counter-trend trade here once a blue indecision bar is printed and to ride that move back down to the Value Zone.
Taking Profits and Risk Management
This system again is very versatile and will fit a wide range of trading styles. It has built in take profit levels and risk management depending on your style of trading.
1a) In original Triple Screen Trading (and the original Elder Impulse system), a trader was to place a buy order one tick above a newly printed green bar with a stop loss one tick below the most recent 2-day low, and vice-versa for red bars on short selling. as long as other criteria were met, that I will not go into. It is all over YouTube and in his books and on Investopedia if you want more information. The general idea is to continue the trend in the direction if price is strong and you are bought into that move with a close stop, or if price falls back a little bit, you can get in at a better price. This would be a system typically better suited to a scalper.
1b) The updated risk management according to the above video is to place a stop loss at least 2ATR away from price. These bands already have calculated these values so a trader can place a stop one tick below the 2 or even 3ATR zones depending on their risk appetite. This is assuming you have already received a strong buy signal based on the system you follow. This would be a system typically better suited to a trend-trader.
2a) Taking profits if you are a trend trader has several possibilities. The first, as Dr. Elder suggests, is to place a price target 2ATR values away from your entry giving you approximately a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
2b) The second possibility if the trade is successful is to ride the trend upwards until a blue bar is printed, suggesting indecision in the market. A modified version of this that could let a winning trade run longer is to wait for the price to close under the 13-EMA in fast markets, or close under the 26-EMA in slightly slower markets to maximize potential winnings.
2c) A scalper trader may wish to have a target at either the value zone if they are playing an extended buy/short back to the mean, or if they are being at the mean, to sell or cover when price extends back out to the 2x or 3x zone.
3) Trend traders can additionally use the ATR zones as a sort of safety guidelines for entering a trade. Anything within the 1ATR zone is typically a safer entry as the market is less volatile at this time. Entering when price has gone into the 2ATR zone is signaled as a strong momentum move and can signal a stronger move in the direction of the current closing bar. While not always the case, it is suggested by Dr. Elder to not enter trend trades at the 3ATR zone as this is where you will be likely looking for a counter-trend retracement back to value and a trader entering here in the direction of the trade has a higher chance of being stopped out or not getting in at the best possible price.
Ichimoku-Hausky_v2.1Made a little update to my trading system. This system is made so that you can easily follow the trend and know when to get out. You still have to know basic market structure to find a good entry.
NB!! I see that i placed the entry wrong on the example, you have too wait for the EMA to go below the MA :)
I have posted the right one at the bottom.
Take profit can be set at last low or you can use trail stop on the EMA, MA, Kijun-sen or Tenkan-sen.
Example rules:
Buy:
IF Market is in a trend or are possibly close to break out of range
THEN see if price has closed above cloud
IF price has closed above cloud
THEN see if EMA has crossed above MA
IF EMA has crossed above MA
THEN buy or wait for pullback
Sell:
IF Market is in a trend or are possibly close to break out of range
THEN see if price has closed below cloud
IF price has closed below cloud
THEN see if EMA has crossed below MA
IF EMA has crossed below MA
THEN buy or wait for pullback
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Ultimate Scalping Tool[BullByte]Overview
The Ultimate Scalping Tool is an open-source TradingView indicator built for scalpers and short-term traders released under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. It uses a custom Quantum Flux Candle (QFC) oscillator to combine multiple market forces into one visual signal. In plain terms, the script reads momentum, trend strength, volatility, and volume together and plots a special “candlestick” each bar (the QFC) that reflects the overall market bias. This unified view makes it easier to spot entries and exits: the tool labels signals as Strong Buy/Sell, Pullback (a brief retracement in a trend), Early Entry, or Exit Warning . It also provides color-coded alerts and a small dashboard of metrics. In practice, traders see green/red oscillator bars and symbols on the chart when conditions align, helping them scalp or trend-follow without reading multiple separate indicators.
Core Components
Quantum Flux Candle (QFC) Construction
The QFC is the heart of the indicator. Rather than using raw price, it creates a candlestick-like bar from the underlying oscillator values. Each QFC bar has an “open,” “high/low,” and “close” derived from calculated momentum and volatility inputs for that period . In effect, this turns the oscillator into intuitive candle patterns so traders can recognize momentum shifts visually. (For comparison, note that Heikin-Ashi candles “have a smoother look because take an average of the movement”. The QFC instead represents exact oscillator readings, so it reflects true momentum changes without hiding price action.) Colors of QFC bars change dynamically (e.g. green for bullish momentum, red for bearish) to highlight shifts. This is the first open-source QFC oscillator that dynamically weights four non-correlated indicators with moving thresholds, which makes it a unique indicator on its own.
Oscillator Normalization & Adaptive Weights
The script normalizes its oscillator to a fixed scale (for example, a 0–100 range much like the RSI) so that various inputs can be compared fairly. It then applies adaptive weighting: the relative influence of trend, momentum, volatility or volume signals is automatically adjusted based on current market conditions. For instance, in very volatile markets the script might weight volatility more heavily, or in a strong trend it might give extra weight to trend direction. Normalizing data and adjusting weights helps keep the QFC sensitive but stable (normalization ensures all inputs fit a common scale).
Trend/Momentum/Volume/Volatility Fusion
Unlike a typical single-factor oscillator, the QFC oscillator fuses four aspects at once. It may compute, for example, a trend indicator (such as an ADX or moving average slope), a momentum measure (like RSI or Rate-of-Change), a volume-based pressure (similar to MFI/OBV), and a volatility measure (like ATR) . These different values are combined into one composite oscillator. This “multi-dimensional” approach follows best practices of using non-correlated indicators (trend, momentum, volume, volatility) for confirmation. By encoding all these signals in one line, a high QFC reading means that trend, momentum, and volume are all aligned, whereas a neutral reading might mean mixed conditions. This gives traders a comprehensive picture of market strength.
Signal Classification
The script interprets the QFC oscillator to label trades. For example:
• Strong Buy/Sell : Triggered when the oscillator crosses a high-confidence threshold (e.g. breaks clearly above zero with strong slope), indicating a well-confirmed move. This is like seeing a big green/red QFC candle aligned with the trend.
• Pullbacks : Identified when the trend is up but momentum dips briefly. A Pullback Buy appears if the overall trend is bullish but the oscillator has a short retracement – a typical buying opportunity in an uptrend. (A pullback is “a brief decline or pause in a generally upward price trend”.)
• Early Buy/Sell : Marks an initial swing in the oscillator suggesting a possible new trend, before it is fully confirmed. It’s a hint of momentum building (an early-warning signal), not as strong as the confirmed “Strong” signal.
• Exit Warnings : Issued when momentum peaks or reverses. For instance, if the QFC bars reach a high and start turning red/green opposite, the indicator warns that the move may be ending. In other words, a Momentum Peak is the point of maximum strength after which weakness may follow.
These categories correspond to typical trading concepts: Pullback (temporary reversal in an uptrend), Early Buy (an initial bullish cross), Strong Buy (confirmed bullish momentum), and Momentum Peak (peak oscillator value suggesting exhaustion).
Filters (DI Reversal, Dynamic Thresholds, HTF EMA/ADX)
Extra filters help avoid bad trades. A DI Reversal filter uses the +DI/–DI lines (from the ADX system) to require that the trend direction confirms the signal . For example, it might ignore a buy signal if the +DI is still below –DI. Dynamic Thresholds adjust signal levels on-the-fly: rather than fixed “overbought” lines, they move with volatility so signals happen under appropriate market stress. An optional High-Timeframe EMA or ADX filter adds a check against a larger timeframe trend: for instance, only taking a trade if price is above the weekly EMA or if weekly ADX shows a strong trend. (Notably, the ADX is “a technical indicator used by traders to determine the strength of a price trend”, so requiring a high-timeframe ADX avoids trading against the bigger trend.)
Dashboard Metrics & Color Logic
The Dashboard in the Ultimate Scalping Tool (UST) serves as a centralized information hub, providing traders with real-time insights into market conditions, trend strength, momentum, volume pressure, and trade signals. It is highly customizable, allowing users to adjust its appearance and content based on their preferences.
1. Dashboard Layout & Customization
Short vs. Extended Mode : Users can toggle between a compact view (9 rows) and an extended view (13 rows) via the `Short Dashboard` input.
Text Size Options : The dashboard supports three text sizes— Tiny, Small, and Normal —adjustable via the `Dashboard Text Size` input.
Positioning : The dashboard is positioned in the top-right corner by default but can be moved if modified in the script.
2. Key Metrics Displayed
The dashboard presents critical trading metrics in a structured table format:
Trend (TF) : Indicates the current trend direction (Strong Bullish, Moderate Bullish, Sideways, Moderate Bearish, Strong Bearish) based on normalized trend strength (normTrend) .
Momentum (TF) : Displays momentum status (Strong Bullish/Bearish or Neutral) derived from the oscillator's position relative to dynamic thresholds.
Volume (CMF) : Shows buying/selling pressure levels (Very High Buying, High Selling, Neutral, etc.) based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator.
Basic & Advanced Signals:
Basic Signal : Provides simple trade signals (Strong Buy, Strong Sell, Pullback Buy, Pullback Sell, No Trade).
Advanced Signal : Offers nuanced signals (Early Buy/Sell, Momentum Peak, Weakening Momentum, etc.) with color-coded alerts.
RSI : Displays the Relative Strength Index (RSI) value, colored based on overbought (>70), oversold (<30), or neutral conditions.
HTF Filter : Indicates the higher timeframe trend status (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) when using the Leading HTF Filter.
VWAP : Shows the V olume-Weighted Average Price and whether the current price is above (bullish) or below (bearish) it.
ADX : Displays the Average Directional Index (ADX) value, with color highlighting whether it is rising (green) or falling (red).
Market Mode : Shows the selected market type (Crypto, Stocks, Options, Forex, Custom).
Regime : Indicates volatility conditions (High, Low, Moderate) based on the **ATR ratio**.
3. Filters Status Panel
A secondary panel displays the status of active filters, helping traders quickly assess which conditions are influencing signals:
- DI Reversal Filter: On/Off (confirms reversals before generating signals).
- Dynamic Thresholds: On/Off (adjusts buy/sell thresholds based on volatility).
- Adaptive Weighting: On/Off (auto-adjusts oscillator weights for trend/momentum/volatility).
- Early Signal: On/Off (enables early momentum-based signals).
- Leading HTF Filter: On/Off (applies higher timeframe trend confirmation).
4. Visual Enhancements
Color-Coded Cells : Each metric is color-coded (green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for neutral) for quick interpretation.
Dynamic Background : The dashboard background adapts to market conditions (bullish/bearish/neutral) based on ADX and DI trends.
Customizable Reference Lines : Users can enable/disable fixed reference lines for the oscillator.
How It(QFC) Differs from Traditional Indicators
Quantum Flux Candle (QFC) Versus Heikin-Ashi
Heikin-Ashi candles smooth price by averaging (HA’s open/close use averages) so they show trend clearly but hide true price (the current HA bar’s close is not the real price). QFC candles are different: they are oscillator values, not price averages . A Heikin-Ashi chart “has a smoother look because it is essentially taking an average of the movement”, which can cause lag. The QFC instead shows the raw combined momentum each bar, allowing faster recognition of shifts. In short, HA is a smoothed price chart; QFC is a momentum-based chart.
Versus Standard Oscillators
Common oscillators like RSI or MACD use fixed formulas on price (or price+volume). For example, RSI “compares gains and losses and normalizes this value on a scale from 0 to 100”, reflecting pure price momentum. MFI is similar but adds volume. These indicators each show one dimension: momentum or volume. The Ultimate Scalping Tool’s QFC goes further by integrating trend strength and volatility too. In practice, this means a move that looks strong on RSI might be downplayed by low volume or weak trend in QFC. As one source notes, using multiple non-correlated indicators (trend, momentum, volume, volatility) provides a more complete market picture. The QFC’s multi-factor fusion is unique – it is effectively a multi-dimensional oscillator rather than a traditional single-input one.
Signal Style
Traditional oscillators often use crossovers (RSI crossing 50) or fixed zones (MACD above zero) for signals. The Ultimate Scalping Tool’s signals are custom-classified: it explicitly labels pullbacks, early entries, and strong moves. These terms go beyond a typical indicator’s generic “buy”/“sell.” In other words, it packages a strategy around the oscillator, which traders can backtest or observe without reading code.
Key Term Definitions
• Pullback : A short-term dip or consolidation in an uptrend. In this script, a Pullback Buy appears when price is generally rising but shows a brief retracement. (As defined by Investopedia, a pullback is “a brief decline or pause in a generally upward price trend”.)
• Early Buy/Sell : An initial or tentative entry signal. It means the oscillator first starts turning positive (or negative) before a full trend has developed. It’s an early indication that a trend might be starting.
• Strong Buy/Sell : A confident entry signal when multiple conditions align. This label is used when momentum is already strong and confirmed by trend/volume filters, offering a higher-probability trade.
• Momentum Peak : The point where bullish (or bearish) momentum reaches its maximum before weakening. When the oscillator value stops rising (or falling) and begins to reverse, the script flags it as a peak – signaling that the current move could be overextended.
What is the Flux MA?
The Flux MA (Moving Average) is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applied to a normalized oscillator, referred to as FM . Its purpose is to smooth out the fluctuations of the oscillator, providing a clearer picture of the underlying trend direction and strength. Think of it as a dynamic baseline that the oscillator moves above or below, helping you determine whether the market is trending bullish or bearish.
How it’s calculated (Flux MA):
1.The oscillator is normalized (scaled to a range, typically between 0 and 1, using a default scale factor of 100.0).
2.An EMA is applied to this normalized value (FM) over a user-defined period (default is 10 periods).
3.The result is rescaled back to the oscillator’s original range for plotting.
Why it matters : The Flux MA acts like a support or resistance level for the oscillator, making it easier to spot trend shifts.
Color of the Flux Candle
The Quantum Flux Candle visualizes the normalized oscillator (FM) as candlesticks, with colors that indicate specific market conditions based on the relationship between the FM and the Flux MA. Here’s what each color means:
• Green : The FM is above the Flux MA, signaling bullish momentum. This suggests the market is trending upward.
• Red : The FM is below the Flux MA, signaling bearish momentum. This suggests the market is trending downward.
• Yellow : Indicates strong buy conditions (e.g., a "Strong Buy" signal combined with a positive trend). This is a high-confidence signal to go long.
• Purple : Indicates strong sell conditions (e.g., a "Strong Sell" signal combined with a negative trend). This is a high-confidence signal to go short.
The candle mode shows the oscillator’s open, high, low, and close values for each period, similar to price candlesticks, but it’s the color that provides the quick visual cue for trading decisions.
How to Trade the Flux MA with Respect to the Candle
Trading with the Flux MA and Quantum Flux Candle involves using the MA as a trend indicator and the candle colors as entry and exit signals. Here’s a step-by-step guide:
1. Identify the Trend Direction
• Bullish Trend : The Flux Candle is green and positioned above the Flux MA. This indicates upward momentum.
• Bearish Trend : The Flux Candle is red and positioned below the Flux MA. This indicates downward momentum.
The Flux MA serves as the reference line—candles above it suggest buying pressure, while candles below it suggest selling pressure.
2. Interpret Candle Colors for Trade Signals
• Green Candle : General bullish momentum. Consider entering or holding a long position.
• Red Candle : General bearish momentum. Consider entering or holding a short position.
• Yellow Candle : A strong buy signal. This is an ideal time to enter a long trade.
• Purple Candle : A strong sell signal. This is an ideal time to enter a short trade.
3. Enter Trades Based on Crossovers and Colors
• Long Entry : Enter a buy position when the Flux Candle turns green and crosses above the Flux MA. If it turns yellow, this is an even stronger signal to go long.
• Short Entry : Enter a sell position when the Flux Candle turns red and crosses below the Flux MA. If it turns purple, this is an even stronger signal to go short.
4. Exit Trades
• Exit Long : Close your buy position when the Flux Candle turns red or crosses below the Flux MA, indicating the bullish trend may be reversing.
• Exit Short : Close your sell position when the Flux Candle turns green or crosses above the Flux MA, indicating the bearish trend may be reversing.
•You might also exit a long trade if the candle changes from yellow to green (weakening strong buy signal) or a short trade from purple to red (weakening strong sell signal).
5. Use Additional Confirmation
To avoid false signals, combine the Flux MA and candle signals with other indicators or dashboard metrics (e.g., trend strength, momentum, or volume pressure). For example:
•A yellow candle with a " Strong Bullish " trend and high buying volume is a robust long signal.
•A red candle with a " Moderate Bearish " trend and neutral momentum might need more confirmation before shorting.
Practical Example
Imagine you’re scalping a cryptocurrency:
• Long Trade : The Flux Candle turns yellow and is above the Flux MA, with the dashboard showing "Strong Buy" and high buying volume. You enter a long position. You exit when the candle turns red and dips below the Flux MA.
• Short Trade : The Flux Candle turns purple and crosses below the Flux MA, with a "Strong Sell" signal on the dashboard. You enter a short position. You exit when the candle turns green and crosses above the Flux MA.
Market Presets and Adaptation
This indicator is designed to work on any market with candlestick price data (stocks, crypto, forex, indices, etc.). To handle different behavior, it provides presets for major asset classes. Selecting a “Stocks,” “Crypto,” “Forex,” or “Options” preset automatically loads a set of parameter values optimized for that market . For example, a crypto preset might use a shorter lookback or higher sensitivity to account for crypto’s high volatility, while a stocks preset might use slightly longer smoothing since stocks often trend more slowly. In practice, this means the same core QFC logic applies across markets, but the thresholds and smoothing adjust so signals remain relevant for each asset type.
Usage Guidelines
• Recommended Timeframes : Optimized for 1 minute to 15 minute intraday charts. Can also be used on higher timeframes for short term swings.
• Market Types : Select “Crypto,” “Stocks,” “Forex,” or “Options” to auto tune periods, thresholds and weights. Use “Custom” to manually adjust all inputs.
• Interpreting Signals : Always confirm a signal by checking that trend, volume, and VWAP agree on the dashboard. A green “Strong Buy” arrow with green trend, green volume, and price > VWAP is highest probability.
• Adjusting Sensitivity : To reduce false signals in fast markets, enable DI Reversal Confirmation and Dynamic Thresholds. For more frequent entries in trending environments, enable Early Entry Trigger.
• Risk Management : This tool does not plot stop loss or take profit levels. Users should define their own risk parameters based on support/resistance or volatility bands.
Background Shading
To give you an at-a-glance sense of market regime without reading numbers, the indicator automatically tints the chart background in three modes—neutral, bullish and bearish—with two levels of intensity (light vs. dark):
Neutral (Gray)
When ADX is below 20 the market is considered “no trend” or too weak to trade. The background fills with a light gray (high transparency) so you know to sit on your hands.
Bullish (Green)
As soon as ADX rises above 20 and +DI exceeds –DI, the background turns a semi-transparent green, signaling an emerging uptrend. When ADX climbs above 30 (strong trend), the green becomes more opaque—reminding you that trend-following signals (Strong Buy, Pullback) carry extra weight.
Bearish (Red)
Similarly, if –DI exceeds +DI with ADX >20, you get a light red tint for a developing downtrend, and a darker, more solid red once ADX surpasses 30.
By dynamically varying both hue (green vs. red vs. gray) and opacity (light vs. dark), the background instantly communicates trend strength and direction—so you always know whether to favor breakout-style entries (in a strong trend) or stay flat during choppy, low-ADX conditions.
The setup shown in the above chart snapshot is BTCUSD 15 min chart : Binance for reference.
Disclaimer
No indicator guarantees profits. Backtest or paper trade this tool to understand its behavior in your market. Always use proper position sizing and stop loss orders.
Good luck!
- BullByte
Simple Decesion Matrix Classification Algorithm [SS]Hello everyone,
It has been a while since I posted an indicator, so thought I would share this project I did for fun.
This indicator is an attempt to develop a pseudo Random Forest classification decision matrix model for Pinescript.
This is not a full, robust Random Forest model by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a good way to showcase how decision matrices can be applied to trading and within Pinescript.
As to not market this as something it is not, I am simply calling it the "Simple Decision Matrix Classification Algorithm". However, I have stolen most of the aspects of this machine learning algo from concepts of Random Forest modelling.
How it works:
With models like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Machine Learning (GBM), which are commonly used in Machine Learning Classification Tasks (MLCTs), this model operates similarity to the basic concepts shared amongst those modelling types. While it is not very similar to SVM, it is very similar to RF and GBM, in that it uses a "voting" system.
What do I mean by voting system?
How most classification MLAs work is by feeding an input dataset to an algorithm. The algorithm sorts this data, categorizes it, then introduces something called a confusion matrix (essentially sorting the data in no apparently order as to prevent over-fitting and introduce "confusion" to the algorithm to ensure that it is not just following a trend).
From there, the data is called upon based on current data inputs (so say we are using RSI and Z-Score, the current RSI and Z-Score is compared against other RSI's and Z-Scores that the model has saved). The model will process this information and each "tree" or "node" will vote. Then a cumulative overall vote is casted.
How does this MLA work?
This model accepts 2 independent variables. In order to keep things simple, this model was kept as a three node model. This means that there are 3 separate votes that go in to get the result. A vote is casted for each of the two independent variables and then a cumulative vote is casted for the overall verdict (the result of the model's prediction).
The model actually displays this system diagrammatically and it will likely be easier to understand if we look at the diagram to ground the example:
In the diagram, at the very top we have the classification variable that we are trying to predict. In this case, we are trying to predict whether there will be a breakout/breakdown outside of the normal ATR range (this is either yes or no question, hence a classification task).
So the question forms the basis of the input. The model will track at which points the ATR range is exceeded to the upside or downside, as well as the other variables that we wish to use to predict these exceedences. The ATR range forms the basis of all the data flowing into the model.
Then, at the second level, you will see we are using Z-Score and RSI to predict these breaks. The circle will change colour according to "feature importance". Feature importance basically just means that the indicator has a strong impact on the outcome. The stronger the importance, the more green it will be, the weaker, the more red it will be.
We can see both RSI and Z-Score are green and thus we can say they are strong options for predicting a breakout/breakdown.
So then we move down to the actual voting mechanisms. You will see the 2 pink boxes. These are the first lines of voting. What is happening here is the model is identifying the instances that are most similar and whether the classification task we have assigned (remember out ATR exceedance classifier) was either true or false based on RSI and Z-Score.
These are our 2 nodes. They both cast an individual vote. You will see in this case, both cast a vote of 1. The options are either 1 or 0. A vote of 1 means "Yes" or "Breakout likely".
However, this is not the only voting the model does. The model does one final vote based on the 2 votes. This is shown in the purple box. We can see the final vote and result at the end with the orange circle. It is 1 which means a range exceedance is anticipated and the most likely outcome.
The Data Table Component
The model has many moving parts. I have tried to represent the pivotal functions diagrammatically, but some other important aspects and background information must be obtained from the companion data table.
If we bring back our diagram from above:
We can see the data table to the left.
The data table contains 2 sections, one for each independent variable. In this case, our independent variables are RSI and Z-Score.
The data table will provide you with specifics about the independent variables, as well as about the model accuracy and outcome.
If we take a look at the first row, it simply indicates which independent variable it is looking at. If we go down to the next row where it reads "Weighted Impact", we can see a corresponding percent. The "weighted impact" is the amount of representation each independent variable has within the voting scheme. So in this case, we can see its pretty equal, 45% and 55%, This tells us that there is a slight higher representation of z-score than RSI but nothing to worry about.
If there was a major over-respresentation of greater than 30 or 40%, then the model would risk being skewed and voting too heavily in favour of 1 variable over the other.
If we move down from there we will see the next row reads "independent accuracy". The voting of each independent variable's accuracy is considered separately. This is one way we can determine feature importance, by seeing how well one feature augments the accuracy. In this case, we can see that RSI has the greatest importance, with an accuracy of around 87% at predicting breakouts. That makes sense as RSI is a momentum based oscillator.
Then if we move down one more, we will see what each independent feature (node) has voted for. In this case, both RSI and Z-Score voted for 1 (Breakout in our case).
You can weigh these in collaboration, but its always important to look at the final verdict of the model, which if we move down, we can see the "Model prediction" which is "Bullish".
If you are using the ATR breakout, the model cannot distinguish between "Bullish" or "Bearish", must that a "Breakout" is likely, either bearish or bullish. However, for the other classification tasks this model can do, the results are either Bullish or Bearish.
Using the Function:
Okay so now that all that technical stuff is out of the way, let's get into using the function. First of all this function innately provides you with 3 possible classification tasks. These include:
1. Predicting Red or Green Candle
2. Predicting Bullish / Bearish ATR
3. Predicting a Breakout from the ATR range
The possible independent variables include:
1. Stochastics,
2. MFI,
3. RSI,
4. Z-Score,
5. EMAs,
6. SMAs,
7. Volume
The model can only accept 2 independent variables, to operate within the computation time limits for pine execution.
Let's quickly go over what the numbers in the diagram mean:
The numbers being pointed at with the yellow arrows represent the cases the model is sorting and voting on. These are the most identical cases and are serving as the voting foundation for the model.
The numbers being pointed at with the pink candle is the voting results.
Extrapolating the functions (For Pine Developers:
So this is more of a feature application, so feel free to customize it to your liking and add additional inputs. But here are some key important considerations if you wish to apply this within your own code:
1. This is a BINARY classification task. The prediction must either be 0 or 1.
2. The function consists of 3 separate functions, the 2 first functions serve to build the confusion matrix and then the final "random_forest" function serves to perform the computations. You will need all 3 functions for implementation.
3. The model can only accept 2 independent variables.
I believe that is the function. Hopefully this wasn't too confusing, it is very statsy, but its a fun function for me! I use Random Forest excessively in R and always like to try to convert R things to Pinescript.
Hope you enjoy!
Safe trades everyone!
VAWSI and Trend Persistance Reversal Strategy SL/TPThis is a completely revamped version of my "RSI and ATR Trend Reversal Strategy."
What's New?
The RSI has been replaced with an original indicator of mine, the "VAWSI," as I've elected to call it.
The standard RSI measures a change in an RMA to determine the strength of a movement.
The VAWSI performs very similarly, except it uses another original indicator of mine, the VAWMA.
VAWMA stands for "Volume (and) ATR Weight Moving Average." It takes an average of the volume and ATR and uses the ratio of each bar to weigh a moving average of the source.
It has the same formula as an RSI, but uses the VAWMA instead of an RMA.
Next we have the Trend Persistence indicator, which is an index on how long a trend has been persisting for. It is another original indicator. It takes the max deviation the source has from lowest/highest of a specified length. It then takes a cumulative measure of that amount, measures the change, then creates a strength index with that amount.
The VAWSI is a measure of an emerging trend, and the Trend Persistence indicator is a measure of how long a trend has persisted.
Finally, the 3rd main indicator, is a slight variation of an ATR. Rather than taking the max of source - low or high- source and source - source , it instead takes the max of high-low and the absolute value of source - the previous source. It then takes the absolute value of the change of this, and normalizes it with the source.
Inputs
Minimum SL/TP ensures that the Stop Loss and Take Profit still exist in untrendy markets. This is the minimum Amount that will always be applied.
VAWSI Weight is a divided by 100 multiplier for the VAWSI. So value of 200 means it is multiplied by 2. Think of it like a percentage.
Trend Persistence weight and ATR Weight are applied the same. Higher the number, the more impactful on the final calculation it is.
Combination Mult is an outright multiplier to the final calculation. So a 2.0 = * 2.0
Trend Persistence Smoothing Length is the length of the weighted moving average applied to the Trend Persistence Strength index.
Length Cycle Decimal is a replacement of length for the script.
Here we used BlackCat1402's Dynamic Length Calculation, which can be found on his page. With his permission we have implemented it into this script. Big shout out to them for not only creating, but allowing us to use it here.
The Length Cycle Decimal is used to calculate the dynamic length. Because TradingView only allows series int for their built-in library, a lot of the baseline indicators we use have to be manually recreated as functions in the following section.
The Strategy
As usual, we use Heiken Ashi values for calculations.
We begin by establishing the minimum SL/TP for use later.
Next we determine the amount of bars back since the last crossup or crossdown of our threshold line.
We then perform some normalization of our multipliers. We want a larger trend or larger VAWSI amount to narrow the threshold, so we have 1 divide them. This way, a higher reading outputs a smaller number and vice versa. We do this for both Trend Persistence, and the VAWSI.
The VAWSI we also normalize, where rather than it being a 0-100 reading of trend direction and strength, we absolute it so that as long as a trend is strong, regardless of direction, it will have a higher reading. With these normalized values, we add them together and simply subtract the ATR measurement rather than having 1 divide it.
Here you can see how the different measurements add up. A lower final number suggests imminent reversal, and a higher final number suggests an untrendy or choppy market.
ATR is in orange, the Trend Persistence is blue, the VAWSI is purple, and the final amount is green.
We take this final number and depending on the current trend direction, we multiply it by either the Highest or Lowest source since the last crossup or crossdown. We then take the highest or lowest of this calculation, and have it be our Stop Loss or Take Profit. This number cannot be higher/lower than the previous source to ensure a rapid spike doesn't immediately close your position on a still continuing trend. As well, the threshold cannot be higher/ lower than the the specified Stop Loss and Take Profit
Only after the source has fully crossed these lines do we consider it a crossup or crossdown. We confirm this with a barstate.isconfirmed to prevent repainting. Next, each time there is a crossup or crossdown we enter a long or a short respectively and plot accordingly.
I have the strategy configured to "process on order close" to ensure an accurate backtesting result. You could also set this to false and add a 1 bar delay to the "if crossup" and "if crossdown" lines under strategy so that it is calculated based on the open of the next bar.
Final Notes
The amounts have been preconfigured for performance on RIOT 5 Minute timeframe. Other timeframes are viable as well. With a few changes to the parameters, this strategy has backtested well on NVDA, AAPL, TSLA, and AMD. I recommend before altering settings to try other timeframes first.
This script does not seem to perform nearly as well in typically untrendy and choppy markets such as crypto and forex. With some setting changes, I have seen okay results with crypto, but overfitting could be the cause there.
Thank you very much, and please enjoy.
Endpointed SSA of Price [Loxx]The Endpointed SSA of Price: A Comprehensive Tool for Market Analysis and Decision-Making
The financial markets present sophisticated challenges for traders and investors as they navigate the complexities of market behavior. To effectively interpret and capitalize on these complexities, it is crucial to employ powerful analytical tools that can reveal hidden patterns and trends. One such tool is the Endpointed SSA of Price, which combines the strengths of Caterpillar Singular Spectrum Analysis, a sophisticated time series decomposition method, with insights from the fields of economics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.
The Endpointed SSA of Price has its roots in the interdisciplinary fusion of mathematical techniques, economic understanding, and advancements in artificial intelligence. This unique combination allows for a versatile and reliable tool that can aid traders and investors in making informed decisions based on comprehensive market analysis.
The Endpointed SSA of Price is not only valuable for experienced traders but also serves as a useful resource for those new to the financial markets. By providing a deeper understanding of market forces, this innovative indicator equips users with the knowledge and confidence to better assess risks and opportunities in their financial pursuits.
█ Exploring Caterpillar SSA: Applications in AI, Machine Learning, and Finance
Caterpillar SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) is a non-parametric method for time series analysis and signal processing. It is based on a combination of principles from classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, and the theory of random processes. The method was initially developed in the early 1990s by a group of Russian mathematicians, including Golyandina, Nekrutkin, and Zhigljavsky.
Background Information:
SSA is an advanced technique for decomposing time series data into a sum of interpretable components, such as trend, seasonality, and noise. This decomposition allows for a better understanding of the underlying structure of the data and facilitates forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. Caterpillar SSA is a particular implementation of SSA that has proven to be computationally efficient and effective for handling large datasets.
Uses in AI and Machine Learning:
In recent years, Caterpillar SSA has found applications in various fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Some of these applications include:
1. Feature extraction: Caterpillar SSA can be used to extract meaningful features from time series data, which can then serve as inputs for machine learning models. These features can help improve the performance of various models, such as regression, classification, and clustering algorithms.
2. Dimensionality reduction: Caterpillar SSA can be employed as a dimensionality reduction technique, similar to Principal Component Analysis (PCA). It helps identify the most significant components of a high-dimensional dataset, reducing the computational complexity and mitigating the "curse of dimensionality" in machine learning tasks.
3. Anomaly detection: The decomposition of a time series into interpretable components through Caterpillar SSA can help in identifying unusual patterns or outliers in the data. Machine learning models trained on these decomposed components can detect anomalies more effectively, as the noise component is separated from the signal.
4. Forecasting: Caterpillar SSA has been used in combination with machine learning techniques, such as neural networks, to improve forecasting accuracy. By decomposing a time series into its underlying components, machine learning models can better capture the trends and seasonality in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions.
Application in Financial Markets and Economics:
Caterpillar SSA has been employed in various domains within financial markets and economics. Some notable applications include:
1. Stock price analysis: Caterpillar SSA can be used to analyze and forecast stock prices by decomposing them into trend, seasonal, and noise components. This decomposition can help traders and investors better understand market dynamics, detect potential turning points, and make more informed decisions.
2. Economic indicators: Caterpillar SSA has been used to analyze and forecast economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates. By decomposing these time series, researchers can better understand the underlying factors driving economic fluctuations and develop more accurate forecasting models.
3. Portfolio optimization: By applying Caterpillar SSA to financial time series data, portfolio managers can better understand the relationships between different assets and make more informed decisions regarding asset allocation and risk management.
Application in the Indicator:
In the given indicator, Caterpillar SSA is applied to a financial time series (price data) to smooth the series and detect significant trends or turning points. The method is used to decompose the price data into a set number of components, which are then combined to generate a smoothed signal. This signal can help traders and investors identify potential entry and exit points for their trades.
The indicator applies the Caterpillar SSA method by first constructing the trajectory matrix using the price data, then computing the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the matrix, and finally reconstructing the time series using a selected number of components. The reconstructed series serves as a smoothed version of the original price data, highlighting significant trends and turning points. The indicator can be customized by adjusting the lag, number of computations, and number of components used in the reconstruction process. By fine-tuning these parameters, traders and investors can optimize the indicator to better match their specific trading style and risk tolerance.
Caterpillar SSA is versatile and can be applied to various types of financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. It can also be combined with other technical analysis tools or indicators to create a comprehensive trading system. For example, a trader might use Caterpillar SSA to identify the primary trend in a market and then employ additional indicators, such as moving averages or RSI, to confirm the trend and generate trading signals.
In summary, Caterpillar SSA is a powerful time series analysis technique that has found applications in AI and machine learning, as well as financial markets and economics. By decomposing a time series into interpretable components, Caterpillar SSA enables better understanding of the underlying structure of the data, facilitating forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. In the context of financial trading, the technique is used to analyze price data, detect significant trends or turning points, and inform trading decisions.
█ Input Parameters
This indicator takes several inputs that affect its signal output. These inputs can be classified into three categories: Basic Settings, UI Options, and Computation Parameters.
Source: This input represents the source of price data, which is typically the closing price of an asset. The user can select other price data, such as opening price, high price, or low price. The selected price data is then utilized in the Caterpillar SSA calculation process.
Lag: The lag input determines the window size used for the time series decomposition. A higher lag value implies that the SSA algorithm will consider a longer range of historical data when extracting the underlying trend and components. This parameter is crucial, as it directly impacts the resulting smoothed series and the quality of extracted components.
Number of Computations: This input, denoted as 'ncomp,' specifies the number of eigencomponents to be considered in the reconstruction of the time series. A smaller value results in a smoother output signal, while a higher value retains more details in the series, potentially capturing short-term fluctuations.
SSA Period Normalization: This input is used to normalize the SSA period, which adjusts the significance of each eigencomponent to the overall signal. It helps in making the algorithm adaptive to different timeframes and market conditions.
Number of Bars: This input specifies the number of bars to be processed by the algorithm. It controls the range of data used for calculations and directly affects the computation time and the output signal.
Number of Bars to Render: This input sets the number of bars to be plotted on the chart. A higher value slows down the computation but provides a more comprehensive view of the indicator's performance over a longer period. This value controls how far back the indicator is rendered.
Color bars: This boolean input determines whether the bars should be colored according to the signal's direction. If set to true, the bars are colored using the defined colors, which visually indicate the trend direction.
Show signals: This boolean input controls the display of buy and sell signals on the chart. If set to true, the indicator plots shapes (triangles) to represent long and short trade signals.
Static Computation Parameters:
The indicator also includes several internal parameters that affect the Caterpillar SSA algorithm, such as Maxncomp, MaxLag, and MaxArrayLength. These parameters set the maximum allowed values for the number of computations, the lag, and the array length, ensuring that the calculations remain within reasonable limits and do not consume excessive computational resources.
█ A Note on Endpionted, Non-repainting Indicators
An endpointed indicator is one that does not recalculate or repaint its past values based on new incoming data. In other words, the indicator's previous signals remain the same even as new price data is added. This is an important feature because it ensures that the signals generated by the indicator are reliable and accurate, even after the fact.
When an indicator is non-repainting or endpointed, it means that the trader can have confidence in the signals being generated, knowing that they will not change as new data comes in. This allows traders to make informed decisions based on historical signals, without the fear of the signals being invalidated in the future.
In the case of the Endpointed SSA of Price, this non-repainting property is particularly valuable because it allows traders to identify trend changes and reversals with a high degree of accuracy, which can be used to inform trading decisions. This can be especially important in volatile markets where quick decisions need to be made.
Rangemeter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator simply displays candle and peak to trough ranges in points or pips, depending on the symbol type, in a table, which can be repositioned and resized at the user's discretion.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Open Green and Red Candles
• An open green candle is one that has a close price equal to or above the price it opened, but has not yet closed to confirm the condition.
• An open red candle is one that has a close price lower than the price it opened, but has not yet closed to confirm the condition.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Open Range
An open range is here defined as one that is forming but has not yet completed. For example, a swing low that has an open green candle proceeding a red candle or series of red candles. Or a swing high that has an open red candle proceeding a green candle or series of green candles.
The table will only display the open range under the aforementioned circumstances, otherwise it will display the current, or previous, range.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Show Candle Ranges
• Show Largest and Smallest Candle Ranges
• Average Candle Range Lookback
• Show Ranges
• Show Largest and Smallest Ranges
• Average Range Lookback
• Position
• Text Size
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator can be used for strategy filtering and development, gauging current market conditions versus historic and helping to make more informed discretionary trading decisions. It can also be used like my Wavemeter indicator to objectively set the angle and projection ratio for my Fan Projections and Parallel Projections indicators.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY , do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by ensuring the lookback for the average range does not reach as far back as the start of the chart. If you are unsure about the candle count you can use my Candle Counter indicator to find out how many candles are displayed on the chart.
The green and red candle calculations are based solely on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with. Alternatively, you can replace the scenarios with your own logic to account for the gap anomalies, if you are feeling up to the challenge.
It is also worth noting that the lookback will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000.
JS-TechTrading: VWAP Momentum_Pullback StrategyGeneral Description and Unique Features of this Script
Introducing the VWAP Momentum-Pullback Strategy (long-only) that offers several unique features:
1. Our script/strategy utilizes Mark Minervini's Trend-Template as a qualifier for identifying stocks and other financial securities in confirmed uptrends.
NOTE: In this basic version of the script, the Trend-Template has to be used as a separate indicator on TradingView (Public Trend-Template indicators are available on TradingView – community scripts). It is recommended to only execute buy signals in case the stock or financial security is in a stage 2 uptrend, which means that the criteria of the trend-template are fulfilled.
2. Our strategy is based on the supply/demand balance in the market, making it timeless and effective across all timeframes. Whether you are day trading using 1- or 5-min charts or swing-trading using daily charts, this strategy can be applied and works very well.
3. We have also integrated technical indicators such as the RSI and the MA / VWAP crossover into this strategy to identify low-risk pullback entries in the context of confirmed uptrends. By doing so, the risk profile of this strategy and drawdowns are being reduced to an absolute minimum.
Minervini’s Trend-Template and the ‘Stage-Analysis’ of the Markets
This strategy is a so-called 'long-only' strategy. This means that we only take long positions, short positions are not considered.
The best market environment for such strategies are periods of stable upward trends in the so-called stage 2 - uptrend.
In stable upward trends, we increase our market exposure and risk.
In sideways markets and downward trends or bear markets, we reduce our exposure very quickly or go 100% to cash and wait for the markets to recover and improve. This allows us to avoid major losses and drawdowns.
This simple rule gives us a significant advantage over most undisciplined traders and amateurs!
'The Trend is your Friend'. This is a very old but true quote.
What's behind it???
• 98% of stocks made their biggest gains in a Phase 2 upward trend.
• If a stock is in a stable uptrend, this is evidence that larger institutions are buying the stock sustainably.
• By focusing on stocks that are in a stable uptrend, the chances of profit are significantly increased.
• In a stable uptrend, investors know exactly what to expect from further price developments. This makes it possible to locate low-risk entry points.
The goal is not to buy at the lowest price – the goal is to buy at the right price!
Each stock goes through the same maturity cycle – it starts at stage 1 and ends at stage 4
Stage 1 – Neglect Phase – Consolidation
Stage 2 – Progressive Phase – Accumulation
Stage 3 – Topping Phase – Distribution
Stage 4 – Downtrend – Capitulation
This strategy focuses on identifying stocks in confirmed stage 2 uptrends. This in itself gives us an advantage over long-term investors and less professional traders.
By focusing on stocks in a stage 2 uptrend, we avoid losses in downtrends (stage 4) or less profitable consolidation phases (stages 1 and 3). We are fully invested and put our money to work for us, and we are fully invested when stocks are in their stage 2 uptrends.
But how can we use technical chart analysis to find stocks that are in a stable stage 2 uptrend?
Mark Minervini has developed the so-called 'trend template' for this purpose. This is an essential part of our JS-TechTrading pullback strategy. For our watchlists, only those individual values that meet the tough requirements of Minervini's trend template are eligible.
The Trend Template
• 200d MA increasing over a period of at least 1 month, better 4-5 months or longer
• 150d MA above 200d MA
• 50d MA above 150d MA and 200d MA
• Course above 50d MA, 150d MA and 200d MA
• Ideally, the 50d MA is increasing over at least 1 month
• Price at least 25% above the 52w low
• Price within 25% of 52w high
• High relative strength according to IBD.
NOTE: In this basic version of the script, the Trend-Template has to be used as a separate indicator on TradingView (Public Trend-Template indicators are available in TradingView – community scripts). It is recommended to only execute buy signals in case the stock or financial security is in a stage 2 uptrend, which means that the criteria of the trend-template are fulfilled.
This strategy can be applied to all timeframes from 5 min to daily.
The VWAP Momentum-Pullback Strateg y
For the JS-TechTrading VWAP Momentum-Pullback Strategy, only stocks and other financial instruments that meet the selected criteria of Mark Minervini's trend template are recommended for algorithmic trading with this startegy.
A further prerequisite for generating a buy signals is that the individual value is in a short-term oversold state (RSI).
When the selling pressure is over and the continuation of the uptrend can be confirmed by the MA / VWAP crossover after reaching a price low, a buy signal is issued by this strategy.
Stop-loss limits and profit targets can be set variably.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator developed by Welles Wilder in 1978. The RSI is used to perform a market value analysis and identify the strength of a trend as well as overbought and oversold conditions. The indicator is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100 and shows how much an asset has risen or fallen relative to its own price in recent periods.
The RSI is calculated as the ratio of average profits to average losses over a certain period of time. A high value of the RSI indicates an overbought situation, while a low value indicates an oversold situation. Typically, a value > 70 is considered an overbought threshold and a value < 30 is considered an oversold threshold. A value above 70 signals that a single value may be overvalued and a decrease in price is likely , while a value below 30 signals that a single value may be undervalued and an increase in price is likely.
For example, let's say you're watching a stock XYZ. After a prolonged falling movement, the RSI value of this stock has fallen to 26. This means that the stock is oversold and that it is time for a potential recovery. Therefore, a trader might decide to buy this stock in the hope that it will rise again soon.
The MA / VWAP Crossover Trading Strategy
This strategy combines two popular technical indicators: the Moving Average (MA) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). The MA VWAP crossover strategy is used to identify potential trend reversals and entry/exit points in the market.
The VWAP is calculated by taking the average price of an asset for a given period, weighted by the volume traded at each price level. The MA, on the other hand, is calculated by taking the average price of an asset over a specified number of periods. When the MA crosses above the VWAP, it suggests that buying pressure is increasing, and it may be a good time to enter a long position. When the MA crosses below the VWAP, it suggests that selling pressure is increasing, and it may be a good time to exit a long position or enter a short position.
Traders typically use the MA VWAP crossover strategy in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to make more informed trading decisions. As with any trading strategy, it is important to carefully consider the risks and potential rewards before making any trades.
This strategy is applicable to all timeframes and the relevant parameters for the underlying indicators (RSI and MA/VWAP) can be adjusted and optimized as needed.
Backtesting
Backtesting gives outstanding results on all timeframes and drawdowns can be reduced to a minimum level. In this example, the hourly chart for MCFT has been used.
Settings for backtesting are:
- Period from April 2020 until April 2021 (1 yr)
- Starting capital 100k USD
- Position size = 25% of equity
- 0.01% commission = USD 2.50.- per Trade
- Slippage = 2 ticks
Other comments
• This strategy has been designed to identify the most promising, highest probability entries and trades for each stock or other financial security.
• The RSI qualifier is highly selective and filters out the most promising swing-trading entries. As a result, you will normally only find a low number of trades for each stock or other financial security per year in case you apply this strategy for the daily charts. Shorter timeframes will result in a higher number of trades / year.
• As a result, traders need to apply this strategy for a full watchlist rather than just one financial security.
Oscillator Workbench — Chart [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator uses an on-chart visual framework to help traders with the interpretation of any oscillator's behavior. The advantage of using this tool is that you do not need to know all the ins and outs of a particular oscillator such as RSI, CCI, Stochastic, etc. Your choice of oscillator and settings in this indicator will change its visuals, which allows you to evaluate different configurations in the context of how the workbench models oscillator behavior. My hope is that by using the workbench, you may come up with an oscillator selection and settings that produce visual cues you find useful in your trading.
The workbench works on any symbol and timeframe. It uses the same presentation engine as my Delta Volume Channels indicator; those already familiar with it will feel right at home here.
█ CONCEPTS
Oscillators
An oscillator is any signal that moves up and down a centerline. The centerline value is often zero or 50. Because the range of oscillator values is different than that of the symbol prices we look at on our charts, it is usually impossible to display an oscillator on the chart, so we typically put oscillators in a separate pane where they live in their own space. Each oscillator has its own profile and properties that dictate its behavior and interpretation. Oscillators can be bounded , meaning their values oscillate between fixed values such as 0 to 100 or +1 to -1, or unbounded when their maximum and minimum values are undefined.
Oscillator weight
How do you display an oscillator's value on a chart showing prices when both values are not on the same scale? The method I use here converts the oscillator's value into a percentage that is used to weigh a reference line. The weight of the oscillator is calculated by maintaining its highest and lowest value above and below its centerline since the beginning of the chart's history. The oscillator's relative position in either of those spaces is then converted to a percentage, yielding a positive or negative value depending on whether the oscillator is above or below its centerline. This method works equally well with bounded and unbounded oscillators.
Oscillator Channel
The oscillator channel is the space between two moving averages: the reference line and a weighted version of that line. The reference line is a moving average of a type, source and length which you select. The weighted line uses the same settings, but it averages the oscillator-weighted price source.
The weight applied to the source of the reference line can also include the relative size of the bar's volume in relation to previous bars. The effect of this is that the oscillator's weight on bars with higher total volume will carry greater weight than those with lesser volume.
The oscillator channel can be in one of four states, each having its corresponding color:
• Bull (teal): The weighted line is above the reference line.
• Strong bull (lime): The bull condition is fulfilled and the bar's close is above the reference line and both the reference and the weighted lines are rising.
• Bear (maroon): The weighted line is below the reference line.
• Strong bear (pink): The bear condition is fulfilled and the bar's close is below the reference line and both the reference and the weighted lines are falling.
Divergences
In the context of this indicator, a divergence is any bar where the slope of the reference line does not match that of the weighted line. No directional bias is assigned to divergences when they occur. You can also choose to define divergences as differences in polarity between the oscillator's slope and the polarity of close-to-close values. This indicator's divergences are designed to identify transition levels. They have no polarity; their bullish/bearish bias is determined by the behavior of price relative to the divergence channel after the divergence channel is built.
Divergence Channel
The divergence channel is the space between two levels (by default, the bar's low and high ) saved when divergences occur. When price has breached a channel and a new divergence occurs, a new channel is created. Until that new channel is breached, bars where additional divergences occur will expand the channel's levels if the bar's price points are outside the channel.
Price breaches of the divergence channel will change its state. Divergence channels can be in one of five different states:
• Bull (teal): Price has breached the channel to the upside.
• Strong bull (lime): The bull condition is fulfilled and the oscillator channel is in the strong bull state.
• Bear (maroon): Price has breached the channel to the downside.
• Strong bear (pink): The bear condition is fulfilled and the oscillator channel is in the strong bear state.
• Neutral (gray): The channel has not been breached.
█ HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
Load the indicator on an active chart (see here if you don't know how).
The default configuration displays:
• The Divergence channel's levels.
• Bar colors using the state of the oscillator channel.
The default settings use:
• RSI as the oscillator, using the close source and a length of 20 bars.
• An Arnaud-Legoux moving average on the close and a length of 20 bars as the reference line.
• The weighted version of the reference line uses only the oscillator's weight, i.e., without the relative volume's weight.
The weighted line is capped to three standard deviations of the reference.
• The divergence channel's levels are determined using the high and low of the bars where divergences occur.
Breaches of the channel require a bar's low to move above the top of the channel, and the bar's high to move below the channel's bottom.
No markers appear on the chart; if you want to create alerts from this script, you will need first to define the conditions that will trigger the markers, then create the alert, which will trigger on those same conditions.
To learn more about how to use this indicator, you must understand the concepts it uses and the information it displays, which requires reading this description. There are no videos to explain it.
█ FEATURES
The script's inputs are divided in five sections: "Oscillator", "Oscillator channel", "Divergence channel", "Bar Coloring" and "Marker/Alert Conditions".
Oscillator
This is where you configure the oscillator you want to study. Thirty oscillators are available to choose from, but you can also use an oscillator from another indicator that is on your chart, if you want. When you select an external indicator's plot as the oscillator, you must also specify the value of its centerline.
Oscillator Channel
Here, you control the visibility and colors of the reference line, its weighted version, and the oscillator channel between them.
You also specify what type of moving average you want to use as a reference line, its source and its length. This acts as the oscillator channel's baseline. The weighted line is also a moving average of the same type and length as the reference line, except that it will be calculated from the weighted version of the source used in the reference line. By default, the weighted line is capped to three standard deviations of the reference line. You can change that value, and also elect to cap using a multiple of ATR instead. The cap provides a mechanism to control how far the weighted line swings from the reference line. This section is also where you can enable the relative volume component of the weight.
Divergence Channel
This is where you control the appearance of the divergence channel and the key price values used in determining the channel's levels and breaching conditions. These choices have an impact on the behavior of the channel. More generous level prices like the default low and high selection will produce more conservative channels, as will the default choice for breach prices.
In this section, you can also enable a mode where an attempt is made to estimate the channel's bias before price breaches the channel. When it is enabled, successive increases/decreases of the channel's top and bottom levels are counted as new divergences occur. When one count is greater than the other, a bull/bear bias is inferred from it. You can also change the detection mode of divergences, and choose to display a mark above or below bars where divergences occur.
Bar Coloring
You specify here:
• The method used to color chart bars, if you choose to do so.
• If you want to hollow out the bodies of bars where volume has not increased since the last bar.
Marker/Alert Conditions
Here, you specify the conditions that will trigger up or down markers. The trigger conditions can include a combination of state transitions of the oscillator and the divergence channels. The triggering conditions can be filtered using a variety of conditions.
Configuring the marker conditions is necessary before creating an alert from this script, as the alert will use the marker conditions to trigger.
Realtime values will repaint, as is usually the case with oscillators, but markers only appear on bar closes, so they will not repaint. Keep in mind, when looking at markers on historical bars, that they are positioned on the bar when it closes — NOT when it opens.
Raw values
The raw values calculated by this script can be inspected using the Data Window, including the oscillator's value and the weights.
█ INTERPRETATION
Except when mentioned otherwise, this section's charts use the indicator's default settings, with different visual components turned on or off.
The aim of the oscillator channel is to provide a visual representation of an oscillator's general behavior. The simplest characteristic of the channel is its bull/bear state, determined by whether the weighted line is above or below the reference line. One can then distinguish between its bull and strong bull states, as transitions from strong bull to bull states will generally happen when trends are losing steam. While one should not infer a reversal from such transitions, they can be a good place to tighten stops. Only time will tell if a reversal will occur. One or more divergences will often occur before reversals. This shows the oscillator channel, with the reference line and the thicker, weighted line:
The nature of the divergence channel 's design makes it particularly adept at identifying consolidation areas if its settings are kept on the conservative side. The divergence channel will also reveal transition areas. A gray divergence channel should usually be considered a no-trade zone. More adventurous traders can use the oscillator channel to orient their trade entries if they accept the risk of trading in a neutral divergence channel, which by definition will not have been breached by price. This show only the divergence channels:
This chart shows divergence channels and their levels, and colors bars on divergences and on the state of the oscillator channel, which is not visible on the chart:
If your charts are already busy with other stuff you want to hold on to, you could consider using only the chart bar coloring component of this indicator. Here we only color bars using the combined state of the oscillator and divergence channel, and we do not color the bodies of bars where volume has not increased. Note that my chart's settings do not color the candle bodies:
At its simplest, one way to use this indicator would be to look for overlaps of the strong bull/bear colors in both the oscillator channel and a divergence channel, as these identify points where price is breaching the divergence channel when the oscillator's state is consistent with the direction of the breach.
Tip
One way to use the Workbench is to combine it with my Delta Volume Channels indicator. If both indicators use the same MA as a reference line, you can display its delta volume channel instead of the oscillator channel.
This chart shows such a setup. The Workbench displays its divergence levels, the weighted reference line using the default RSI oscillator, and colors bars on divergences. The DV Channels indicator only displays its delta volume channel, which uses the same MA as the workbench for its baseline. This way you can ascertain the volume delta situation in contrast with the visuals of the Workbench:
█ LIMITATIONS
• For some of the oscillators, assumptions are made concerning their different parameters when they are more complex than just a source and length.
See the `oscCalc()` function in this indicator's code for all the details, and ask me in a comment if you can't find the information you need.
• When an oscillator using volume is selected and no volume information is available for the chart's symbol, an error will occur.
• The method I use to convert an oscillator's value into a percentage is fragile in the early history of datasets
because of the nascent expression of the oscillator's range during those early bars.
█ NOTES
Working with this workbench
This indicator is called a workbench for a reason; it is designed for traders interested in exploring its behavior with different oscillators and settings, in the hope they can come up with a setup that suits their trading methodology. I cannot tell you which setup is the best because its setup should be compatible with your trading methodology, which may require faster or slower transitions, thus different configurations of the settings affecting the calculations of the divergence channels.
For Pine Script™ Coders
• This script uses the new overload of the fill() function which now makes it possible to do vertical gradients in Pine. I use it for both channels displayed by this script.
• I use the new arguments for plot() 's `display` parameter to control where the script plots some of its values,
namely those I only want to appear in the script's status line and in the Data Window.
• I used my ta library for some of the oscillator calculations and helper functions.
• I also used TradingView's ta library for other oscillator calculations.
• I wrote my script using the revised recommendations in the Style Guide from the Pine v5 User Manual.
tvbot Trend Following with Mean Reversion algoDefault settings are for the ETHUSDT 5 min Binance Chart regular candles.
Back test Default settings are 10,000 usd to start, Commission 0.075%, capital deployment per position is 10%, slippage value of 1.
This algo uses the EMA to set the trend line . You are also able to turn the trend line into a range instead of just a static line. The algo uses the VWMA to set the base entry parameters. When a candle closes above or below the VWMA it will record that price and then wait for the VWMA to meet the candle close price. When that happens the Base entry condition is met. (it causes the vwma to create a hook like structure. essentially tell you that the momentum has changed directions.)
The algo will always check to see if the trend line has either breached or has been tested and held. If this condition has been met it will then go to the base entry condition to check to see if the momentum has changed.
There is a mean reversion component in this algo as well. When the price has moved away from the mean(set by user) by a certain amount the algo will start to look for a top or bottom. Once that condition has been met it will then use the base entry condition to look for a change in momentum, but the mean reversion base entry condition uses the HMA to check for a change in momentum.
This algo effectively looks like a hamburger. Mean reversion being the tops and bottoms(bun) and the trend following(beef patty)
Goertzel Cycle Period [Loxx]Goertzel Cycle Period is an indicator that uses Goertzel algorithm to extract the cycle period of ticker's price input to then be injected into advanced, adaptive indicators and technical analysis algorithms.
The following information is extracted from: "MESA vs Goertzel-DFT, 2003 by Dennis Meyers"
Background
MESA which stands for Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis is a widely used mathematical technique designed to find the frequencies present in data. MESA was developed by J.P Burg for his Ph.D dissertation at Stanford University in 1975. The use of the MESA technique for stocks has been written about in many articles and has been popularized as a trading technique by John Ehlers.
The Fourier Transform is a mathematical technique named after the famed French mathematician Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier 1768-1830. In its digital form, namely the discrete-time Fourier Transform (DFT) series, is a widely used mathematical technique to find the frequencies of discrete time sampled data. The use of the DFT has been written about in many articles in this magazine (see references section).
Today, both MESA and DFT are widely used in science and engineering in digital signal processing. The application of MESA and Fourier mathematical techniques are prevalent in our everyday life from everything from television to cell phones to wireless internet to satellite communications.
MESA Advantages & Disadvantage
MESA is a mathematical technique that calculates the frequencies of a time series from the autoregressive coefficients of the time series. We have all heard of regression. The simplest regression is the straight line regression of price against time where price(t) = a+b*t and where a and b are calculated such that the square of the distance between price and the best fit straight line is minimized (also called least squares fitting). With autoregression we attempt to predict tomorrows price by a linear combination of M past prices.
One of the major advantages of MESA is that the frequency examined is not constrained to multiples of 1/N (1/N is equal to the DFT frequency spacing and N is equal to the number of sample points). For instance with the DFT and N data points we can only look a frequencies of 1/N, 2/N, Ö.., 0.5. With MESA we can examine any frequency band within that range and any frequency spacing between i/N and (i+1)/N . For example, if we had 100 bars of price data, we might be interested in looking for all cycles between 3 bars per cycle and 30 bars/ cycle only and with a frequency spacing of 0.5 bars/cycle. DFT would examine all bars per cycle of between 2 and 50 with a frequency spacing constrained to 1/100.
Another of the major advantages of MESA is that the dominant spectral (frequency) peaks of the price series, if they exist, can be identified with fewer samples than the DFT technique. For instance if we had a 10 bar price period and a high signal to noise ratio we could accurately identify this period with 40 data samples using the MESA technique. This same resolution might take 128 samples for the DFT. One major disadvantage of the MESA technique is that with low signal to noise ratios, that is below 6db (signal amplitude/noise amplitude < 2), the ability of MESA to find the dominant frequency peaks is severely diminished.(see Kay, Ref 10, p 437). With noisy price series this disadvantage can become a real problem. Another disadvantage of MESA is that when the dominant frequencies are found another procedure has to be used to get the amplitude and phases of these found frequencies. This two stage process can make MESA much slower than the DFT and FFT . The FFT stands for Fast Fourier Transform. The Fast Fourier Transform(FFT) is a computationally efficient algorithm which is a designed to rapidly evaluate the DFT. We will show in examples below the comparisons between the DFT & MESA using constructed signals with various noise levels.
DFT Advantages and Disadvantages.
The mathematical technique called the DFT takes a discrete time series(price) of N equally spaced samples and transforms or converts this time series through a mathematical operation into set of N complex numbers defined in what is called the frequency domain. Why would we what to do that? Well it turns out that we can do all kinds of neat analysis tricks in the frequency domain which are just to hard to do, computationally wise, with the original price series in the time domain. If we make the assumption that the price series we are examining is made up of signals of various frequencies plus noise, than in the frequency domain we can easily filter out the frequencies we have no interest in and minimize the noise in the data. We could then transform the resultant back into the time domain and produce a filtered price series that hopefully would be easier to trade. The advantages of the DFT and itís fast computation algorithm the FFT, are that it is extremely fast in calculating the frequencies of the input price series. In addition it can determine frequency peaks for very noisy price series even when the signal amplitude is less than the noise amplitude. One of the disadvantages of the FFT is that straight line, parabolic trends and edge effects in the price series can distort the frequency spectrum. In addition, end effects in the price series can distort the frequency spectrum. Another disadvantage of the FFT is that it needs a lot more data than MESA for spectral resolution. However this disadvantage has largely been nullified by the speed of today's computers.
Goertzel algorithm attempts to resolve these problems...
What is the Goertzel algorithm?
The Goertzel algorithm is a technique in digital signal processing (DSP) for efficient evaluation of the individual terms of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT). It is useful in certain practical applications, such as recognition of dual-tone multi-frequency signaling (DTMF) tones produced by the push buttons of the keypad of a traditional analog telephone. The algorithm was first described by Gerald Goertzel in 1958.
Like the DFT, the Goertzel algorithm analyses one selectable frequency component from a discrete signal. Unlike direct DFT calculations, the Goertzel algorithm applies a single real-valued coefficient at each iteration, using real-valued arithmetic for real-valued input sequences. For covering a full spectrum, the Goertzel algorithm has a higher order of complexity than fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithms, but for computing a small number of selected frequency components, it is more numerically efficient. The simple structure of the Goertzel algorithm makes it well suited to small processors and embedded applications.
The main calculation in the Goertzel algorithm has the form of a digital filter, and for this reason the algorithm is often called a Goertzel filter
Where is Goertzel algorithm used?
This package contains the advanced mathematical technique called the Goertzel algorithm for discrete Fourier transforms. This mathematical technique is currently used in today's space-age satellite and communication applications and is applied here to stock and futures trading.
While the mathematical technique called the Goertzel algorithm is unknown to many, this algorithm is used everyday without even knowing it. When you press a cell phone button have you ever wondered how the telephone company knows what button tone you pushed? The answer is the Goertzel algorithm. This algorithm is built into tiny integrated circuits and immediately detects which of the 12 button tones(frequencies) you pushed.
Future Additions:
Bartels test for cycle significance, testing output cycles for utility
Hodrick Prescott Detrending, smoothing
Zero-Lag Regression Detrending, smoothing
High-pass or Double WMA filtering of source input price data
References:
1. Burg, J. P., ëMaximum Entropy Spectral Analysisî, Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University, Stanford, CA. May 1975.
2. Kay, Steven M., ìModern Spectral Estimationî, Prentice Hall, 1988
3. Marple, Lawrence S. Jr., ìDigital Spectral Analysis With Applicationsî, Prentice Hall, 1987
4. Press, William H., et al, ìNumerical Receipts in C++: the Art of Scientific Computingî,
Cambridge Press, 2002.
5. Oppenheim, A, Schafer, R. and Buck, J., ìDiscrete Time Signal Processingî, Prentice Hall,
1996, pp663-634
6. Proakis, J. and Manolakis, D. ìDigital Signal Processing-Principles, Algorithms and
Applicationsî, Prentice Hall, 1996., pp480-481
7. Goertzel, G., ìAn Algorithm for he evaluation of finite trigonometric seriesî American Math
Month, Vol 65, 1958 pp34-35.
Better Heiken-Ashi Candles w/ Expanded Source Types [Loxx]Better Heiken-Ashi Candles w/ Expanded Source Types is an indicator to compare regular candles to traditional Heiken-Ashi candles to "better" Heiken Ashi candles. This indicator and comparison study appears an oscillator. The purpose of this indicator is to demonstrate a better way to calculate HA candles and also to demonstrate expanded source types. This indicator is meant to be used by advanced Pine Coders who wish to add fine-tuning to their indicators and strategies.
What are Heiken Ashi "better" candles?
The "better formula" was proposed in an article/memo by BNP-Paribas (In Warrants & Zertifikate, No. 8, August 2004 (a monthly German magazine published by BNP Paribas, Frankfurt), there is an article by Sebastian Schmidt about further development (smoothing) of Heikin-Ashi chart.)
They proposed to use the following :
(Open+Close)/2+(((Close-Open)/(High-Low))*ABS((Close-Open)/2))
instead of using :
haClose = (O+H+L+C)/4
According to that document the HA representation using their proposed formula is better than the traditional formula.
What are traditional Heiken-Ashi candles?
The Heikin-Ashi technique averages price data to create a Japanese candlestick chart that filters out market noise.
Heikin-Ashi charts, developed by Munehisa Homma in the 1700s, share some characteristics with standard candlestick charts but differ based on the values used to create each candle. Instead of using the open, high, low, and close like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula based on two-period averages. This gives the chart a smoother appearance, making it easier to spots trends and reversals, but also obscures gaps and some price data.
What's going on with this indicator?
- First, we have the options to select the candlestick type: Regular, HA, HA Better
- Next, and to demonstrate the expanded source types, I've added a simple moving average. In the drop down for the SMA source you'll notice something very different from the typical TradingView source selector. Here's how to decode the new names for the sources:
Close = close
Open = open
High = high
Low = low
Median = hl2
Typical = hlc3
Weighted = hlcc4
Average = ohlc4
Average Median Body = (open+close)/2
Trend Biased = (see code, too complex to explain here)
Trend Biased (extreme) = (see code, too complex to explain here)
... for HA and HA better, see the same set up as above but with different open and close values to calcualate the other source types
- For the HA better calculations, we run the close value through either an Adaptive, Kaufman, or T3 smoothing filter. The length for these smoothing filters, either 2 or 3, can be found in the code and is a constant value that shouldn't be changed. This smoothing is in inline with what is described in the article mentioned above
- Lastly, I've placed an SMA over the oscillator so that the user can test out the various sources explained above
Included:
- Toggle on/off bar coloring
stoch supertrd atr 200maThis strategy combines Supertrend, 200 EMA, Stochastic, and an ATR stop loss indicator. For buy conditions, the Stochastic has to be below the 20 level, price has to be above the 200 Ema and the Supertrend has to be green. For sell conditions, it has to be the opposite. the Stochastic has to be above the 80 level, price has to be below the 200 Ema and the Supertrend has to be red.
Realtime FootprintThe purpose of this script is to gain a better understanding of the order flow by the footprint. To that end, i have added unusual features in addition to the standard features.
I use "Real Time 5D Profile by LucF" main engine to create basic footprint(profile type) and added some popular features and my favorites.
This script can only be used in realtime, because tradingview doesn't provide historical Bid/Ask date.
Bid/Ask date used this script are up/down ticks.
This script can only be used by time based chart (1m, 5m , 60m and daily etc)
This script use many labels and these are limited max 500, so you can't display many bars.
If you want to display foot print bars longer, turn off the unused sub-display function.
Default setting is footprint is 25 labels, IB count is 1, COT high and Ratio high is 1, COT low and Ratio low is 1 and Delta Box Ratio Volume is 1 , total 29.
plus UA , IB stripes , ladder fading mark use several labels.
///////// General Setting ///////////
Resets on Volume / Range bar
: If you want to use simple time based Resets on, please set Total Volume is 0.
Your timeframe is always the first condition. So if you set Total Volume is 1000, both conditions(Volume >= 1000 and your timeframe start next bar) must be met. (that is, new footprint bar doesn't start at when total volume = exactly 1000).
Ticks per row and Maximum row of Bar
: 1 is minimum size(tick). "Maximum row of Bar" decide the number of rows used in one footprint. 1 row is created from 1 label, so you need to reduce this number to display many footprints (Max label is 500).
Volume Filter and For Calculation and Display
: "Volume Filter" decide minimum size of using volume for this script.
"For Calculation and Display" is used to convert volume to an integer.
This script only use integer to make profile look better (I contained Bid number and Ask number in one row( one label) to saving labels. This require to make no difference in width by the number of digits and this script corresponds integers from 0 to 3 digits).
ex) Symbol average volume size is from 0.0001 to 0.001. You decide only use Volume >= 0.0005 by "Volume Filter".
Next, you convert volume to integer, by setting "For Calculation and Display" is 1000 (0.0005 * 1000 = 5).
If 0.00052 → 5.2 → 5, 0.00058 → 5.8 → 6 (Decimal numbers are rounded off)
This integer is used to all calculation in this script.
//////// Main Display ///////
Footprint, Total, Row Delta, Diagonal Delta and Profile
: "Footprint" display Ask and Bid per row. "Total" display Ask + Bid per row.
"Row Delta" display Ask - Bid per row. "Diagonal Delta" display Ask(row N) - Bid(row N -1) per row.
Profile display Total Volume(Ask + Bid) per row by using Block. Profile Block coloring are decided by Row Delta value(default: positive Row Delta (Ask > Bid) is greenish colors and negative Row Delta (Ask < Bid) is reddish colors.)
Volume per Profile Block, Row Imbalance Ratio and Delta Bull/Bear/Neutral Colors
: "Volume per Profile Block" decide one block contain how many total volume.
ex) When you set 20, Total volume 70 display 3 block.
The maximum number of blocks that can be used per low is 20.
So if you set 20, Total volume 400 is 20 blocks. total volume 800 is 20 blocks too.
"Row Imbalance Ratio" decide block coloring. The row imbalance is that the difference between Ask and Bid (row delta) is large.
default is x3, x2 and x1. The larger the difference, the brighter the color.
ex) Ask 30 Bid 10 is light green. Ask 20 Bid 10 is green. Ask 11 Bid 10 is dark green.
Ask 0 Bid 1 is light red. Ask 1 Bid 2 is red. ask 30 Bid 59 is dark green.
Ask 10 Bid 10 is neutral color(gray)
profile coloring is reflected same row's other elements(Ask, Bid, Total and Delta) too.
It's because one label can only use one text color.
/////// Sub Display ///////
Delta, total and Commitment of Traders
: "Delta" is total Ask - total Bid in one footprint bar. Total is total Ask + total Bid in one footprint bar.
"Commitment of traders" is variation of "Delta". COT High is reset to 0 when current highest is touched. COT Low is opposite.
Basic concept of Delta is to compare price with Delta. Ordinary, when price move up, delta is positive. Price move down is negative delta.
This is because market orders move price and market orders are counted by Delta (although this description is not exactly correct).
But, sometimes prices do not move even though many market orders are putting pressure on price , or conversely, price move strongly without many market orders.
This is key point. Big player absorb market orders by iceberg order(Subdivide large orders and pretend to be small limit orders.
Small limit orders look weak in the order book, but they are added each time you fill, so they are more powerful than they look.), so price don't move.
On the other hand, when the price is moving easily, smart players may be aiming to attract and counterattack to a better price for them.
It's more of a sport than science, and there's always no right response. Pay attention to the relationship between price, volume and delta.
ex) If COT Low is large negative value, it means many sell market orders is coming, but iceberg order is absorbing their attack at limit order.
you should not do buy entry, only this clue. but this is one of the hints.
"Delta, Box Ratio and Total texts is contained same label and its color are "Delta" coloring. Positive Delta is Delta Bull color(green),Negative Delta is Delta Bear Color
and Delta = 0 is Neutral Color(gray). When Delta direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
I didn't add the cumulative volume delta because I prefer to display the CVD line on the price chart rather than the number.
Box Ratio , Box Ratio Divisor and Heavy Box Ratio Ratio
: This is not ordinary footprint features, but I like this concept so I added.
Box Ratio by Richard W. Arms is simple but useful tool. calculation is "total volume (one bar) divided by Bar range (highest - lowest)."
When Bull and bear are fighting fiercely this number become large, and then important price move happen.
I made average BR from something like 5 SMA and if current BR exceeds average BR x (Heavy Box Ratio Ratio), BR box mark will be filled.
Box Ratio Divisor is used to good looking display(BR multiplied by Box Ratio Divisor is rounded off and displayed as an integer)
Diagonal Imbalance Count , D IB Mark and D IB Stripes
: Diagonal Imbalance is defined by "Diagonal Imbalance Ratio".
ex) You set 2. When Ask(row N) 30 Bid(row N -1)10, it's 30 > 10*2, so positive Diagonal Imbalance.
When Ask(row N) 4 Bid(row N -1)9, it's 4*2 < 9, so negative Diagonal Imbalance.
This calculation does not use equals to avoid Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0 became Diagonal Imbalance.
Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0, it's 0 = 0*2, not Diagonal Imbalance. Ask(row N) 10 Bid(row N -1)5, it's 10 = 5*2, not Diagonal Imbalance.
"D IB Mark" emphasize Ask or Bid number which is dominant side(Winner of Diagonal Imbalance calculation), by under line.
"Diagonal Imbalance Count" compare Ask side D IB Mark to Bid side D IB Mark in one footprint.
Coloring depend on which is more aggressive side (it has many IB Mark) and When Aggressive direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
"D IB Stripes" is a function that further emphasizes with an arrow Mark, when a DIB mark is added on the same side for three consecutive row. Three consecutive arrow is added at third row.
Unfinished Auction, Ratio Bounds and Ladder fading Mark
: "Unfinished Auction" emphasize highest or lowest row which has both Ask and Bid, by Delta Divergence Color(yellow) XXXXXX mark.
Unfinished Auction sometimes has magnet effect, price may touch and breakout at UA side in the future.
This concept is famous as profit taking target than entry decision.
But, I'm interested in the case that Big player make fake breakout at UA side and trapped retail traders, and then do reversal with retail traders stop-loss hunt.
Anyway, it's not stand alone signal.
"Ratio Bounds" gauge decrease of pressure at extreme price. Ratio Bounds High is number which second highest ask is divided by highest ask.
Ratio Bounds Low is number which second lowest bid is divided by lowest bid. The larger the number, the less momentum the price has.
ex)first footprint bar has Ratio Bounds Low 2, second footprint bar has RBL 4, third footprint bar has RBL 20.
This indicates that the bear's power is gradually diminishing.
"Ladder fading mark" emphasizes the decrease of the value in 3 consecutive row at extreme price. I added two type Marks.
Ask/Bid type(triangle Mark) is Ask/Bid values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
Row Imbalance type(Diamond Mark) are row Imbalance values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
ex)Third lowest Bid 40, second lowest Bid 10 and lowest Bid 5 have triangle up Mark. That is bear's power is gradually diminishing.
(This Mark only check Bid value at lowest price and Ask value at highest price).
Third highest row delta + 60, second highest row delta + 5, highest delta - 20 have diamond Mark. That is Bull's power is gradually diminishing.
Sub display use Delta colors at bottom of Sub display section.
////// Candle & POC /////////
candle and POC
: Ordinary, "POC" Point of Control is row of largest total volume, but this script'POC is volume weighted average.
This is because the regular POC was visually displayed by the profile ,and I was influenced LucF's ideas.
POC coloring is decided in relation to the previous POC. When current POC is higher than previous POC, color is UP Bar Color(green).
In the opposite case, Down Bar color is used.
POC Divergence Color is used when Current POC is up but current bar close is lower than open (Down price Bar),or in the opposite case.
POC coloring has option also highlight background by Delta Divergence Color(yellow). but bg color is displayed at your time frame current price bar not current footprint bar.
The basic explanation is over.
I add some image to promote understanding basic ideas.
