General Filter Estimator-An Experiment on Estimating EverythingIntroduction
The last indicators i posted where about estimating the least squares moving average, the task of estimating a filter is a funny one because its always a challenge and it require to be really creative. After the last publication of the 1LC-LSMA , who estimate the lsma with 1 line of code and only 3 functions i felt like i could maybe make something more flexible and less complex with the ability to approximate any filter output. Its possible, but the methods to do so are not something that pinescript can do, we have to use another base for our estimation using coefficients, so i inspired myself from the alpha-beta filter and i started writing the code.
Calculation and The Estimation Coefficients
Simplicity is the key word, its also my signature style, if i want something good it should be simple enough, so my code look like that :
p = length/beta
a = close - nz(b ,close)
b = nz(b ,close) + a/p*gamma
3 line, 2 function, its a good start, we could put everything in one line of code but its easier to see it this way. length control the smoothing amount of the filter, for any filter f(Period) Period should be equal to length and f(Period) = p , it would be inconvenient to have to use a different length period than the one used in the filter we want to estimate (imagine our estimation with length = 50 estimating an ema with period = 100) , this is where the first coefficients beta will be useful, it will allow us to leave length as it is. In general beta will be greater than 1, the greater it will be the less lag the filter will have, this coefficient will be useful to estimate low lagging filters, gamma however is the coefficient who will estimate lagging filters, in general it will range around .
We can get loose easily with those coefficients estimation but i will leave a coefficients table in the code for estimating popular filters, and some comparison below.
Estimating a Simple Moving Average
Of course, the boxcar filter, the running mean, the simple moving average, its an easy filter to use and calculate.
For an SMA use the following coefficients :
beta = 2
gamma = 0.5
Our filter is in red and the moving average in white with both length at 50 (This goes for every comparison we will do)
Its a bit imprecise but its a simple moving average, not the most interesting thing to estimate.
Estimating an Exponential Moving Average
The ema is a great filter because its length times more computing efficient than a simple moving average. For the EMA use the following coefficients :
beta = 3
gamma = 0.4
N.B : The EMA is rougher than the SMA, so it filter less, this is why its faster and closer to the price
Estimating The Hull Moving Average
Its a good filter for technical analysis with tons of use, lets try to estimate it ! For the HMA use the following coefficients :
beta = 4
gamma = 0.85
Looks ok, of course if you find better coefficients i will test them and actualize the coefficient table, i will also put a thank message.
Estimating a LSMA
Of course i was gonna estimate it, but this time this estimation does not have anything a lsma have, no moving average, no standard deviation, no correlation coefficient, lets do it.
For the LSMA use the following coefficients :
beta = 3.5
gamma = 0.9
Its far from being the best estimation, but its more efficient than any other i previously made.
Estimating the Quadratic Least Square Moving Average
I doubted about this one but it can be approximated as well. For the QLSMA use the following coefficients :
beta = 5.25
gamma = 1
Another ok estimate, the estimate filter a bit more than needed but its ok.
Jurik Moving Average
Its far from being a filter that i like and its a bit old. For the comparison i will use the JMA provided by @everget described in this article : c.mql5.com
For the JMA use the following coefficients :
for phase = 0
beta = pow*2 (pow is a parameter in the Jma)
gamma = 0.5
Here length = 50, phase = 0, pow = 5 so beta = 10
Looks pretty good considering the fact that the Jma use an adaptive architecture.
Discussion
I let you the task to judge if the estimation is good or not, my motivation was to estimate such filters using the less amount of calculations as possible, in itself i think that the code is quite elegant like all the codes of IIR filters (IIR Filters = Infinite Impulse Response : Filters using recursion) .
It could be possible to have a better estimate of the coefficients using optimization methods like the gradient descent. This is not feasible in pinescript but i could think about it using python or R.
Coefficients should be dependant of length but this would lead to a massive work, the variation of the estimation using fixed coefficients when using different length periods is just ok if we can allow some errors of precision.
I dont think it should be possible to estimate adaptive filter relying a lot on their adaptive parameter/smoothing constant except by making our coefficients adaptive (gamma could be)
So at the end ? What make a filter truly unique ? From my point of sight the architecture of a filter and the problem he is trying to solve is what make him unique rather than its output result. If you become a signal, hide yourself into noise, then look at the filters trying to find you, what a challenging game, this is why we need filters.
Conclusion
I wanted to give a simple filter estimator relying on two coefficients in order to estimate both lagging and low-lagging filters. I will try to give more precise estimate and update the indicator with new coefficients.
Thanks for reading !
ابحث في النصوص البرمجية عن "北证50+股票+新浪财经"
BTC Volume Index [v2018-11-21] @ LekkerCryptisch.nlIndicates the volume trend:
~50 = short term volume is the same as long term volume
> 50 = short term volume is higher than long term volume (i.e. trend is rising volume)
< 50 = short term volume is lower than long term volume (i.e. trend is declining volume)
Reverse Engineered RSI - Key Levels + MTFThis indicator overlays 5 Reverse Engineered RSI (RERSI) levels on your main chart window.
The RERSI was first developed by Giorgos Siligardos in the June 2003 issue of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. HPotter provided the initial implementation - from which this script is derived - so all credit to them (see: ).
In simple terms, RERSI plots lines on the price chart that reflect levels of the RSI . E.g. if you set up a RERSI line at a level of 50, then price will touch that line when the standard RSI indicator reads 50. Hopefully that makes sense, but compare the two if it doesn't.
Why is the RERSI useful if it's just plotting RSI values? Well, it simplifies things, and enables you to get a clearer picture of trend direction, RSI support and resistance levels, RSI trading signals, and it keeps your chart window uncluttered.
I've set up 5 RERSI lines to be plotted: Overbought and Oversold Levels, a Middle Level (generally leave this at 50), and then Down/Up Trend Lines. The latter two are loosely based on the work of Constance Brown (and they in turn were influenced by Andrew Brown), who posited that RSI doesn't breach certain levels during trends (e.g. 40-50 is often a support level during an uptrend).
Play around with the levels, and the RSI Length, to see how your particular market reacts, and where key levels may lie. Remember, this isn't meant as a stand-alone system (although I think there's potential to use it as such, especially with price action trading - which I guess wouldn't make it stand-alone then!!), and works best with confirmation from other sources.
Oh, and there's MTF capability, because I think that's useful for all indicators.
Any queries, please let me know.
Cheers,
RJR
Better RSI with bullish / bearish market cycle indicator This script improves the default RSI. First. it identifies regions of the RSI which are oversold and overbought by changing the color of RSI from white to red. Second, it adds additional reference lines at 20,40,50,60, and 80 to better gauge the RSI value. Finally, the coolest feature, the middle 50 line is used to indicate which cycle the price is currently at. A green color at the 50 line indicates a bullish cycle, a red color indicators a bearish cycle, and a white color indicates a neutral cycle.
The cycles are determined using the RSI as follows:
if RSI is overbought, cycle switches to bullish until RSI falls below 40, at which point it becomes neutral
if RSI is oversold, cycle switches bearish until RSI rises above 60, at which point it becomes neutral
a neutral cycle is exited at either overbought or oversold conditions
Very useful, please give it a try and let me know what you think
ACM22 not repaintedДелал данный скрипт для FORTS.Идеально подойдет тем,кто использует трейлинг стопы.В основе стратегии лежит RSI.Как по мне,хорошая вещь для проверки стратегии и ее оптимизиации.На скрине 50 контрактов,так что не сильно радуйтесь,а просто делите на 50 и получите показатели на 1 контракт.
Script make for futures on MICEX.U can change paramets of RSI,traling stop and stop loss .On a ps 50 futures USDollar-russian ruble.Use for testing and optimisation.
Inertia Indicator The inertia indicator measures the market, stock or currency pair momentum and
trend by measuring the security smoothed RVI (Relative Volatility Index).
The RVI is a technical indicator that estimates the general direction of the
volatility of an asset.
The inertia indicator returns a value that is comprised between 0 and 100.
Positive inertia occurs when the indicator value is higher than 50. As long as
the inertia value is above 50, the long-term trend of the security is up. The inertia
is negative when its value is lower than 50, in this case the long-term trend is
down and should stay down if the inertia stays below 50
GC RSI Columns V2016This is a basic RSI indicator but in column format.I had been using this for a while and it gives a nice visual representation of trend change by changing color of the column.
Base line is 50 level. Anything above 50 is buy opportunity and below 50 is sell opportunity . Try it on higher time frames and see the results.
Example on chart above.
Note: i published it on demand. many folks were asking me for this ,since it(column rsi) was not available in public indicators
Golden Cross, SMA 200 Moving Average Strategy (by ChartArt)This famous moving average strategy is very easy to follow to decide when to buy (go long) and when to take profit.
The strategy goes long when the faster SMA 50 (the simple moving average of the last 50 bars) crosses above the slower SMA 200. Orders are closed when the SMA 50 crosses below the SMA 200. This simple strategy does not have any other stop loss or take profit money management logic. The strategy does not short and goes long only!
Here is an article explaining the "golden cross" strategy in more detail:
www.stockopedia.com
On the S&P 500 index (symbol "SPX") this strategy worked on the daily chart 81% since price data is available since 1982. And on the DOW Jones Industrial Average (symbol "DOWI") this strategy worked on the daily chart 55% since price data is available since 1916. The low number of trades is in both cases not statistically significant though.
All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Forex Master v4.0 (EUR/USD Mean-Reversion Algorithm)DESCRIPTION
Forex Master v4.0 is a mean-reversion algorithm currently optimized for trading the EUR/USD pair on the 5M chart interval. All indicator inputs use the period's closing price and all trades are executed at the open of the period following the period where the trade signal was generated.
There are 3 main components that make up Forex Master v4.0:
I. Trend Filter
The algorithm uses a version of the ADX indicator as a trend filter to trade only in certain time periods where price is more likely to be range-bound (i.e., mean-reverting). This indicator is composed of a Fast ADX and a Slow ADX, both using the same look-back period of 50. However, the Fast ADX is smoothed with a 6-period EMA and the Slow ADX is smoothed with a 12-period EMA. When the Fast ADX is above the Slow ADX, the algorithm does not trade because this indicates that price is likelier to trend, which is bad for a mean-reversion system. Conversely, when the Fast ADX is below the Slow ADX, price is likelier to be ranging so this is the only time when the algorithm is allowed to trade.
II. Bollinger Bands
When allowed to trade by the Trend Filter, the algorithm uses the Bollinger Bands indicator to enter long and short positions. The Bolliger Bands indicator has a look-back period of 20 and a standard deviation of 1.5 for both upper and lower bands. When price crosses over the lower band, a Long Signal is generated and a long position is entered. When price crosses under the upper band, a Short Signal is generated and a short position is entered.
III. Money Management
Rule 1 - Each trade will use a limit order for a fixed quantity of 50,000 contracts (0.50 lot). The only exception is Rule
Rule 2 - Order pyramiding is enabled and up to 10 consecutive orders of the same signal can be executed (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts).
Rule 3 - Every order will include a bracket with both TP and SL set at 50 pips (note: the algorithm only closes the current open position and does not enter the opposite trade once a TP or SL has been hit).
Rule 4 - When a new opposite trade signal is generated, the algorithm sends in a larger order to close the current open position as well as open a new one (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts. A Short Signal is generated shortly after the 14th Long Signal. The algorithm then sends in a sell order for 400,000 contracts to close the 350,000 contracts long position and open a new short position of 50,000 contracts).
RSI-EMA IndicatorThis indicator calculates and plots 2 separate EMAs of the RSI. The default settings below work great on SPX/SPY daily chart. General rule is if an EMA is above 50, the stock's near term outlook is bullish. If an EMA is below 50, the near term outlook is bearish. Personally, I like to use a fast EMA as a buy signal and a slow EMA as a sell signal.
Default settings:
RSI = 50
EMA1 = 100
EMA2 = 200
High-Low Index [LazyBear]-- Fixed ---
Source: pastebin.com
Fixes an issue with "Combined" mode, using wrong symbols.
--- Original ---
The High-Low Index is a breadth indicator based on Record High Percent, which is based on new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows.
Readings below 50 indicate that there were more new lows than new highs. Readings above 50 indicate that there were more new highs than new lows. 0 indicates there were zero new highs (0% new highs). 100 indicates there was at least 1 new high and no new lows (100% new highs). 50 indicates that new highs and new lows were equal (50% new highs).
Readings consistently above 70 usually coincide with a strong uptrend. Readings consistently below 30 usually coincide with a strong downtrend.
More info:
stockcharts.com
List of my public indicators: bit.ly
List of my app-store indicators: blog.tradingview.com
Just noticed @Greeny has already published this -> Linking it here.
TimWest Long Short FiltersTimWest Long Short Filters
Indicator Has 3 Separate Filters that Create Green(Bullish) or Red(Bearish) BackGround Highlights
If Price is Above or Below a certain LookBack Period - Tim Defaults to 63 on Daily Chart to Quickly View if Price is Above or Below it’s Price 1 Quarter Ago.
A Simple Moving Average Filter - Tim Defaults to 50 SMA and 200 SMA also known as the “Golden Cross”.
A Exponential Moving Average Filter - For Those Who Want To View Shorter Term Market Swings. Defaults to 50 EMA and 100 EMA used By Chuck Hughes, 7 Time World Trading Champion. Chuck Claims the 50/100 EMA's Show the Earliest Change in Market Direction the Equal - Sustainable Moves
Inputs Tab has Checkboxes to Turn On/Off any of the 3 Filters Above.
Reference Chart Post www.tradingview.com
3 projection Indicators - PBands, PO & PBAll these indicators are by Mel Widner.
Projection Bands :
-------------------------------------------------------
These project market data along the trend with the maxima and minima of the projections defining the band. The method provides a way to signal potential direction changes relative to the trend. Usage is like any other trading band.
Projection Oscillator :
-------------------------------------------------------
This indicates the relative position of price with in the bands. It fluctuates between the values 0 to 100. You can configure the "basis" to make it oscillate around a specific value (for ex., basis=50 will make it oscillate between +50 and -50). EMA of PO (length configurable, default is 5) is plotted as a signal line. There is also an option to plot the difference (oscillator - signal), just like MACD histogram. When you see a divergence in this oscillator, remember that it just indicates a potential movement with in the band (for ex., a bullish divergence shown may cause the price to cross the median and move up to the top band).
Projection Bandwidth :
-------------------------------------------------------
This shows the % width of the projection bands. A trend reversal is signaled by a high value. Low value may indicate the start of a new trend. This is also a trend strength indicator.
More info: drive.google.com
Borrowed the color theme for this chart from @liw0. Thanks :)
Relative Strength index 2xRelative Strength Index 2×
The RSI*2 by AZly is an advanced dual-RSI indicator that allows traders to analyze momentum from two distinct perspectives — short-term and medium-term — on a single chart. It combines RSI precision with multi-timeframe flexibility, giving a clear view of both immediate and underlying momentum trends.
⚙️ How It Works
This indicator calculates and plots two fully independent RSI lines, each with customizable settings:
RSI 1 (Main RSI) : Captures medium-term momentum, ideal for trend and context.
RSI 2 (Fast RSI) : Reacts quickly to short-term moves, identifying overbought and oversold conditions.
Both RSIs include:
Custom timeframe, source, and smoothing method (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, HMA, SMMA).
Gradient zones to visualize momentum strength and reversals.
Adjustable levels and colors for clear chart presentation.
📘 Andrew Cardwell Zones (RSI 1)
RSI 1 uses Andrew Cardwell’s “range rules” to distinguish bullish and bearish momentum phases:
Bullish Range: RSI holds between 40–80, finding support around 40–45.
Bearish Range: RSI stays between 20–60, with rallies capped near 55–60.
A breakout from one range into another often signals a trend phase transition — marking potential trend beginnings or endings.
⚡ Overbought/Oversold Zones (RSI 2)
RSI 2 is designed for fast reactions and reversal detection:
95–100: Extreme overbought zone — potential exhaustion and short setup.
5–0: Extreme oversold zone — potential exhaustion and long setup.
Crossing these levels highlights short-term momentum exhaustion , often preceding pullbacks or strong price reversals.
💡 Why It’s Better
Compared to traditional RSI indicators, this version provides superior control and insight:
Dual independent RSIs with separate timeframes and smoothing.
Cardwell-style range recognition for better context of trend strength.
Extreme bands for fast RSI 2 to time entries with precision.
Dynamic gradient zones for intuitive visual interpretation.
Multi-timeframe flexibility that adapts to any trading style.
🎯 Trading Concepts
Trend Confirmation:
RSI 1 above 50 (bullish range) confirms uptrend bias; below 50 (bearish range) confirms downtrend.
Reversal Setup:
RSI 2 hitting extreme zones (above 95 or below 5) while RSI 1 stays steady often signals exhaustion and reversal setups.
Divergence Confirmation:
When RSI 2 diverges from price and RSI 1 supports the direction, it strengthens reversal probability.
Range Transition:
A shift in RSI 1’s range (from bearish to bullish or vice versa) confirms a major change in market structure.
🕒 Trade Timing (Entry Ideas)
Timing is one of the indicator’s strongest features.
Wait for RSI 2 to reach an extreme zone (above 95 or below 5).
Then confirm the direction with RSI 1 — trades are most effective when RSI 1’s range aligns with the anticipated move.
Buy Setup:
RSI 1 in bullish range + RSI 2 rebounds upward from the 5 zone.
Sell Setup:
RSI 1 in bearish range + RSI 2 turns down from the 95 zone.
Best Timing:
Enter when RSI 2 crosses back inside the 10–90 range in the same direction as RSI 1’s trend.
This captures momentum just as it resumes — avoiding early or late entries.
🔷 M & W Patterns (RSI 2)
RSI 2 also reveals short-term exhaustion structures:
“ M ” Formation: Two RSI peaks near 95–100 — bearish reversal setup.
“ W ” Formation: Two RSI troughs near 0–5 — bullish reversal setup.
These shapes often appear before price reversals, offering early momentum clues.
⚠️ Important Trading Guidance
It is strongly recommended not to trade against the prevailing trend or attempt to pick exact tops or bottoms. The indicator works best when used in alignment with trend direction. Counter-trend entries carry higher risk and lower probability.
📊 Recommended Use
Ideal for momentum traders, scalpers, and multi-timeframe analysts seeking precise timing and context. Works on all markets — forex, crypto, stocks, indexes, and commodities.
Volume Bubbles & Liquidity Heatmap 30% + biasLuxAlgo gave us an open script, I just primmed it up with the use of Chat GPT:There is no single magic number (like “delta must be 800”) that will guarantee directional follow-through in every market. But you can make a mathematically rigorous filter that gives you a high-probability test — by normalizing the delta against that market’s typical behavior and requiring multiple confirmations. Below is a compact, actionable algorithm you can implement immediately (in your platform or spreadsheet) plus concrete thresholds and the math behind them.
High-IQ rule set (math + trade logic)
Use three independent checks. Only take the trade if ALL three pass.
1) Z-score (statistical significance of the delta)
Compute rolling mean
𝜇
μ and std dev
𝜎
σ of delta on the same timeframe (e.g. 5m) over a lookback window
𝑊
W (suggest
𝑊
=
50
W=50–200 bars).
𝑍
=
delta
bar
−
𝜇
𝑊
𝜎
𝑊
Z=
σ
W
delta
bar
−μ
W
Threshold: require
𝑍
≥
2.5
Z≥2.5 (strong) — accept 2.0 for less strict, 3.0 for very rare signals.
Why: a Z>=2.5 means this delta is an outlier (~<1% one-sided), not normal noise.
2) Relative Imbalance (strength vs total volume)
Compute imbalance ratio:
𝑅
=
∣
delta
bar
∣
volume
bar
R=
volume
bar
∣delta
bar
∣
Threshold: require
𝑅
≥
0.25
R≥0.25 (25% of the bar’s volume is one-sided). For scalping you can tighten to 0.30–0.40.
Why: a big delta with tiny volume isn’t meaningful; this normalizes to participation.
3) Net follow-through over a confirmation window
Look ahead
𝑁
N bars (or check the next bar if you need intrabar speed). Compute cumulative delta and price move:
cum_delta
𝑁
=
∑
𝑖
=
1
𝑁
delta
bar
+
𝑖
cum_delta
N
=
i=1
∑
N
delta
bar+i
price_move
=
close
bar
+
𝑁
−
close
bar
price_move=close
bar+N
−close
bar
Thresholds: require
cum_delta
𝑁
cum_delta
N
has the same sign as the trigger and
∣
cum_delta
𝑁
∣
≥
0.5
×
∣
delta
bar
∣
∣cum_delta
N
∣≥0.5×∣delta
bar
∣, and
price_move
price_move exceeds a minimum meaningful tick amount (instrument dependent). For ES / US30 type futures: price move ≥ 5–10 ticks; for forex pairs maybe 10–20 pips? Use ATR
20
20
×0.05 as a generic minimum.
Why: separates immediate absorption (buy delta then sellers soak it) from genuine continuation.
Bonus check — Structural context (must be satisfied)
Trigger should not occur against a strong structural barrier (VWAP, daily high/low, previous session POC) unless you’re explicitly trading exhaustion/absorption setups.
If signal occurs near resistance and price does not clear that resistance within
𝑁
N bars, treat as probable trap.
Putting it together — final trade decision
Take the long (example):
If
𝑍
≥
2.5
Z≥2.5 and
𝑅
≥
0.25
R≥0.25 and cum_delta_N confirms and no hard resistance above (or you’re willing to trade absorption), then enter.
Place stop: under the low of the last 2–3 bars or X ATR (instrument dependent).
Initial target: risk:reward 1:1 minimum, scale out at 1.5–2R after confirming further delta.
Concrete numeric illustration using your numbers
You saw FOL = 456, then sell reaction with ~350 opposite. How to interpret:
Suppose your 5-min rolling mean
𝜇
μ = 100 and
𝜎
σ=120 (example):
𝑍
=
(
456
−
100
)
/
120
≈
2.97
⇒
statistically big
Z=(456−100)/120≈2.97⇒statistically big
So it passes Z.
If volume on that bar = 2000 contracts:
𝑅
=
456
/
2000
=
0.228
⇒
just below 0.25 threshold
R=456/2000=0.228⇒just below 0.25 threshold
So it fails R (weak participation proportionally), explaining why 456 alone didn’t move price.
Seller came back with 350 opposite soon after — check cum_delta_N:
cum_delta
𝑛
𝑒
𝑥
𝑡
3
≈
456
−
350
=
106
net
cum_delta
next3
≈456−350=106 net
Net is small relative to the initial spike — not convincing follow-through.
Conclusion: despite a big absolute number (456), relative measures and lack of follow-through meant the move failed. That’s exactly why raw numbers alone are unreliable.
Advanced refinement (for elite performance)
Use rolling median + MAD instead of mean/std if delta distribution is skewed.
Scale Z by volume volatility: divide Z by
volume
bar
/
volume
‾
volume
bar
/
volume
to penalize low-volume bars.
Use a signed cumulative delta over micro-windows: compute windowed cumulative delta standardized:
𝑍
cum
=
∑
𝑖
=
0
𝑀
−
1
delta
𝑡
−
𝑖
−
𝑀
𝜇
𝑀
𝜎
Z
cum
=
M
σ
∑
i=0
M−1
delta
t−i
−Mμ
and require
𝑍
cum
≥
3
Z
cum
≥3 for very high confidence.
Add market-depth / DOM confirmation (if available): require that resting ask size above is less than resting bid size below by a factor (i.e. visible liquidity supports the move).
Practical thresholds to start with (tune per instrument)
Lookback
𝑊
W: 100 bars (5m → about a trading day)
Z threshold: 2.5
Imbalance ratio
𝑅
R: ≥ 0.25 (tighten to 0.30 for scalping)
Confirmation window
𝑁
N: next 1–3 bars for intraday scalps; 3–6 bars for short swings
Cum delta confirmation: ≥ 0.5 × initial delta and same sign
Price move confirmation: ≥ 0.03 × ATR20 (or set absolute ticks per instrument)
TL;DR — the single best rule
Don’t chase absolute numbers. Use Z-score of delta + delta/volume ratio + real follow-through. If all three align, odds are heavily in your favor.
If you want, I can:
give you a tiny script (pseudocode or Pine / Python) that computes Z, R, cum_delta_N and flags qualifying bars, or
run the calculation on a sample of your recent bars if you paste a small CSV of time, delta, volume, close.
Which do you want? (I’ll give code right away.)
You said:
give me a percentage of difference where we have a high probability
ChatGPT said:
Thought for 7s
Nice — straight to the point. Here’s a concise, practical set of percentage thresholds (and associated confidence estimates) you can use right now to flag a “high probability” delta signal. I’ll give you three tiers (good / strong / elite), explain what each means, show how to compute it, and give a short example using your 456/2000 bar.
One-line rule
Compute delta percent
𝑃
=
∣
delta
∣
volume
×
100
%
P=
volume
∣delta∣
×100%.
Then require Z-score of delta ≥ 2.5 and P to be at or above the threshold below for the desired confidence tier.
Threshold tiers (percent of bar volume)
Good (high-probability trade candidate)
P ≥ 20–25%
Typical success probability (when combined with Z≥2.5 and no hard structural resistance): ~60–70%.
Use when you want a steady flow of signals with decent edge.
Strong (high confidence)
P ≥ 30–35%
Typical success probability: ~70–80% (with Z≥2.5 + structural alignment).
Fewer signals, higher win-rate. Good default for intraday.
Elite (very high probability / low false positives)
P ≥ 40–50%
Typical success probability: ~80–90% (with Z≥3 and confirmation).
Rare signals. Use for meaningful size or when you need maximum certainty.
Why percentage matters (short)
Absolute delta (456) is meaningless without volume context. A 456 delta on 2,000 volume → P = 456/2000 = 22.8% → sits just below the Good threshold, which matches why it failed: decent but not dominant participation.
Additional required checks (don’t skip these)
To turn P into a reliable filter, always require:
Z-score of the delta ≥ 2.5 (or ≥3 for Elite signals).
No immediate structural barrier (VWAP, strong resistance) that would plausibly absorb the order.
Follow-through: within next N bars (N = 1–3 for scalps) price moves in the same direction by ≥ 0.03×ATR20 (or instrument-specific tick threshold). If this fails, cut fast.
Combine all three and your realized win-rate will approach the probabilities above.
Practical quick checklist (to apply each signal)
Compute P = |delta|/volume. Is P ≥ 30%? (or your chosen tier)
Compute Z = (delta − mean)/std over last 100 bars. Is Z ≥ 2.5?
Is price not pinned under a heavy resistance?
Enter on next bar close (or intrabar on continuation), stop under last 2-bar low (for longs).
If price fails to move ≥ 0.03×ATR20 within 3 bars, exit.
Example (your bar)
delta = 456, volume = 2000 → P = 22.8% → below Good threshold (25%).
Even if Z was high, P failed — explains the failure. You need P ≥ ~30% plus Z≥2.5 to call it a Strong signal.
Final notes (instrument & timeframe)
These percentages were calibrated for futures/US indices and short intraday bars (1–5m).
For FX or low-tick instruments, use absolute ticks + a smaller P threshold (start at 15–20%).
Always backtest on the specific instrument/timeframe and tune thresholds.
If you want, I’ll generate a tiny script (Python or Pine) that calculates P and Z and flags Good/Strong/Elite signals for your chart history so you can see exact historical hit rates. Which language (Python or Pine)?
You said:
so if we have 456 g vs 350 r what pct is that in favour of green?
ChatGPT said:
Perfect — let’s calculate it carefully, digit by digit so we don’t make a slip.
We have:
Green (buy) volume = 456
Red (sell) volume = 350
We want to know what percentage is in favor of green, relative to the total volume.
Step 1. Compute total volume
Total
=
456
+
350
=
806
Total=456+350=806
Step 2. Compute green’s share
\text{Green %} = \frac{456}{806} \times 100
Now do it precisely:
456
÷
806
=
0.565506
456÷806=0.565506 (rounded)
So:
0.565506
×
100
=
56.55
%
0.565506×100=56.55%
Step 3. Compute red’s share (for context)
350
806
=
0.434494
→
43.45
%
806
350
=0.434494→43.45%
Step 4. Compute difference (bias toward green)
56.55
%
−
43.45
%
=
13.10
%
56.55%−43.45%=13.10%
✅ Final answer:
Green = 56.6% of total
Red = 43.4% of total
Bias = +13.1 percentage points in favor of green
So that’s only a 13% advantage to buyers — modest pressure, not a dominant imbalance.
For a high-probability signal (as we discussed earlier), you generally want ≥30% imbalance (e.g. ~65/35 split or stronger).
Original:
''The Volume Bubbles & Liquidity Heatmap indicator is a powerful trading tool designed to give traders a clearer picture of volume dynamics and liquidity distribution across multiple timeframes. By combining dynamic volume bubbles with a liquidity heatmap, this indicator makes it easy to identify areas of price interest, spot market imbalances, and improve decision-making for both scalpers and swing traders.
This trading indicator is ideal for volume traders, price action traders, and liquidity-focused traders who need a clean, multi-dimensional view of buyer/seller activity and the zones where market participants are most active. With full customization over bubble display, timeframes, and visual settings, traders can tailor the tool to fit virtually any trading strategy or market.''
EMA Trend Buy sell strategyThis strategy is built to help investors get into a trend safely and smartly — without rushing and without getting in and out too often.
When to Buy:
First Signal – Small Step In (50% Buy)
When the short-term trend (EMA 18) turns positive and goes above the medium trend (EMA 33),
👉 we buy half of our planned position.
This is an early warning that a new upward trend might be starting.
Second Signal – Full Confidence (Buy other 50%)
If the medium-term trend (EMA 33) also crosses above the long-term (EMA 50),
👉 we buy the other half of the position.
Now we’re more confident that the trend is real.
When to Sell:
First Warning – Reduce Position (Sell 50%)
If EMA 33 falls below EMA 50,
👉 we sell half of the position to reduce risk.
Trend Reversal – Exit Completely (Sell the rest)
If EMA 18 also falls below EMA 33,
👉 we sell the remaining half and leave the trade fully.
Why This Strategy?
📉 We don’t jump in all at once.
→ We wait for confirmation before going full in.
⏳ We stay in the trade as long as the trend is healthy.
→ No overtrading or reacting to small moves.
📊 We get out slowly, not suddenly.
→ This helps protect profits and avoid emotional decisions.
