Porsched Indicator🔧 Core Components:
1. Moving Averages with Clouds
EMA 25, 50, 75, and 150 with standard deviation bands
Visual clouds representing volatility around each EMA
Customizable colors for each average and its cloud
2. Dual Hull Bands
Two separate Hull bands with different periods (20 and 110)
Multiple variations: HMA, THMA, EHMA
Colored filling between Hull lines
Option to use higher timeframes for multi-timeframe analysis
3. Swing High/Low Detector
Identifies significant price reversal points
Configurable swing strength (default: 5 bars)
Solid lines for current swings and dotted for past ones
Alerts when swing levels are broken
4. Volume Analysis (PVSRA)
Vector Candles that change color based on volume:
Red/Green: Volume ≥ 200% of average or highest spread×volume
Blue/Violet: Volume ≥ 150% of average
Gray: Normal conditions
Vector Candle Zones (VCZ): Key areas based on volume candles
5. Daily & Weekly Levels
Previous day's high and low
Previous week's high and low
Stepline display with optional labels
6. UT Bot - Trailing Stop
Dynamic ATR-based stop loss
Bar coloring based on trend direction
Adjustable sensitivity via "Key Value"
7. Session Detector
Identifies session highs/lows (Sydney, Asia, Europe, etc.)
Visual boxes marking each trading session
⚙️ Customization Features:
Individual color schemes for all elements
Adjustable line thickness
Custom transparency settings
Flexible calculation periods
Multiple timeframe options
🎯 Trading Applications:
Trend Identification (EMAs + Hull)
Entry/Exit Points (Swings + Volume)
Risk Management (Trailing Stop)
Support/Resistance (VCZ + Highs/Lows)
Market Timing (Sessions + Volume)
💡 Key Benefits:
All-in-One Solution: Eliminates indicator clutter
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Built-in higher timeframe data
Visual Clarity: Clean, organized display with color coding
Customizable Alerts: Swing break and trend change notifications
Professional Grade: Institutional-level volume analysis
This indicator is designed for traders who want a comprehensive market analysis tool without the complexity of managing multiple separate indicators, providing holistic market insight through different technical perspectives.
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Octopus Indicator 🐙 Octopus Indicator - Technical Analysis Description
Overview
The Octopus Indicator is a comprehensive TradingView technical analysis tool that combines multiple trading methodologies into a single, powerful script. It provides a complete market analysis framework through seven integrated components.
🔧 Core Components:
1. Moving Averages with Clouds
EMA 25, 50, 75, and 150 with standard deviation bands
Visual clouds representing volatility around each EMA
Customizable colors for each average and its cloud
2. Dual Hull Bands
Two separate Hull bands with different periods (20 and 110)
Multiple variations: HMA, THMA, EHMA
Colored filling between Hull lines
Option to use higher timeframes for multi-timeframe analysis
3. Swing High/Low Detector
Identifies significant price reversal points
Configurable swing strength (default: 5 bars)
Solid lines for current swings and dotted for past ones
Alerts when swing levels are broken
4. Volume Analysis (PVSRA)
Vector Candles that change color based on volume:
Red/Green: Volume ≥ 200% of average or highest spread×volume
Blue/Violet: Volume ≥ 150% of average
Gray: Normal conditions
Vector Candle Zones (VCZ): Key areas based on volume candles
5. Daily & Weekly Levels
Previous day's high and low
Previous week's high and low
Stepline display with optional labels
6. UT Bot - Trailing Stop
Dynamic ATR-based stop loss
Bar coloring based on trend direction
Adjustable sensitivity via "Key Value"
7. Session Detector
Identifies session highs/lows (Sydney, Asia, Europe, etc.)
Visual boxes marking each trading session
⚙️ Customization Features:
Individual color schemes for all elements
Adjustable line thickness
Custom transparency settings
Flexible calculation periods
Multiple timeframe options
🎯 Trading Applications:
Trend Identification (EMAs + Hull)
Entry/Exit Points (Swings + Volume)
Risk Management (Trailing Stop)
Support/Resistance (VCZ + Highs/Lows)
Market Timing (Sessions + Volume)
💡 Key Benefits:
All-in-One Solution: Eliminates indicator clutter
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Built-in higher timeframe data
Visual Clarity: Clean, organized display with color coding
Customizable Alerts: Swing break and trend change notifications
Professional Grade: Institutional-level volume analysis
This indicator is designed for traders who want a comprehensive market analysis tool without the complexity of managing multiple separate indicators, providing holistic market insight through different technical perspectives.
Premarket Power Bar StrategyStep 1: Mark Your Levels Before the Open
When: Between 9:00–9:25 AM ET
Premarket High – the highest price before 9:30 AM
Premarket Low – the lowest price before 9:30 AM
Use extended hours view on your chart platform.
These levels act as magnets and turning points once the market opens. They form the foundation for your first trade of the day.
Step 2: Let Price Come to the Level
Do not chase early price action.
Wait for price to approach either the premarket high or low during regular market hours.
Look for a pause, hesitation, or test near the level.
This keeps you from overtrading and forces you to wait for structure to form.
Step 3: Watch for the Power Bar
A power bar is a large-bodied candle with strong momentum and little to no wick on the opposite side.
It should form directly at the premarket level—not near it, not after a breakout.
At the premarket low, a bullish power bar is your buy trigger.
At the premarket high, a bearish power bar signals a short opportunity.
No power bar? No trade. The level and the candle must come together to create the edge.
(BONUS: As you identify specific patterns, eg, double bottoms, double tops, etc. look for those patterns near the premarket high or low)
Step 4: Entry, Stop, and Target
Entry:
For longs: place your order just above the high of the bullish power bar
For shorts: enter just below the low of the bearish power bar
Stop:
Long trade: just under the low of the power bar
Short trade: just above the high of the power bar
Profit Target Options:
VWAP
Prior day’s close
Key support/resistance levels
Keep your trade logic mechanical and consistent.
Execution Guidelines
Only trade when price reacts at your marked level
Wait for the power bar to fully form before entering
Do not jump in early or chase candles that form away from your levels
特典インジケーター （ボリンジャーバンド+移動平均線）BTCやSP500向けのチャート解析ツールです。
- ボリンジャーバンド（オレンジ上下線、水色中央線）
- EMA5（青線）、EMA25（黄色線）、EMA200（赤線）
使い方のポイント
- トレンド判定: EMA200（赤）より上なら上昇基調、下なら下降基調が優勢。
- 短中期の勢い: EMA5（青）とEMA25（黄）のゴールデンクロス／デッドクロスで勢いの変化を確認。
- ボラティリティと逆張り: ボリンジャーバンドの上限／下限タッチは伸びの継続か反転の初動かを、中央線（基準・水色）復帰でフォロー確認。
- 時間軸: 1時間～4時間は短期、日足は中期のトレンド確認に適合。複数時間軸で整合性を取ると精度が上がります。
ツールの解説
ボリンジャーバンド（Bollinger Bands）
ボリンジャーバンドは、20期間の単純移動平均（SMA）を中央線とし、その上下に標準偏差×2のバンドを配置します。
- 上限バンド：相場の上振れが過熱している可能性を示すレジスタンスライン
- 下限バンド：相場の下振れが過冷却している可能性を示すサポートライン
- バンド幅の拡大：ボラティリティ上昇局面を示唆
- バンド幅の収縮：レンジ相場や転換前の低ボラティリティを示唆
---------------------
EMA5（Exponential Moving Average 5）
EMA5は直近5本の価格により重み付けされた指数移動平均です。
- 非常に短期的な価格の変化を捉え、エントリーや還流のタイミングに敏感
- EMA25とのクロスオーバーで、短期モメンタムの変化を判断
EMA25（Exponential Moving Average 25）
EMA25は中期的なトレンドを表す指数移動平均です。
- EMA5との位置関係でトレンドの強さや方向性を評価
- 価格がEMA25を上回れば短期的な買い優勢、下回れば売り優勢
EMA200（Exponential Moving Average 200）
EMA200は長期トレンドの大局を示す指数移動平均です。
- プロのトレーダーにも重要視されるサポート／レジスタンスライン
- 価格がEMA200を上回ると長期的に強気、市場全体のセンチメント確認に利用
Chart Analysis Tool for BTC and S&P500
- Bollinger Bands (orange upper/lower lines, light blue middle line)
- EMA5 (blue line), EMA25 (yellow line), EMA200 (red line)
Cycle VTLs – with Scaled Channels "Cycle VTLs – with Scaled Channels" for TradingView plots Valid Trend Lines (VTLs) based on Hurst's Cyclic Theory, connecting consecutive price peaks (downward VTLs) or troughs (upward VTLs) for specific cycles. It uses up to eight Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) (default lengths: 25, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 1600 bars) with customizable envelope bands to detect pivots and draw VTLs, enhanced by optional parallel channels scaled to envelope widths.
Key Features:
Valid Trend Lines (VTLs):
Upward VTLs: Connect consecutive cycle troughs, sloping upward.
Downward VTLs: Connect consecutive cycle peaks, sloping downward.
Hurst’s Rules:
Connects consecutive cycle peaks/troughs.
Must not cross price between points.
Downward VTLs:
No longer-cycle trough between peaks.
Invalid if slope is incorrect (upward VTL not up, downward VTL not down).
Expired VTLs: Historical VTLs (crossed by price) from up to three prior cycle waves.
SMA Cycles:
Eight customizable SMAs with envelope bands (offset × multiplier) for pivot detection.
Channels:
Optional parallel lines around VTLs, width set by channelFactor × envelope half-width.
Pivot Detection:
Fractal-based (pivotPeriod) on envelopes or price (usePriceFallback).
Customization:
Toggle cycles, VTLs, and channels.
Adjust SMA lengths, offsets, colors, line styles, and widths.
Enable centered envelopes, slope filtering, and limit stored lines (maxStoredLines).
Usage in Hurst’s Cyclic TheoryAnalysis:
VTLs identify cycle trends; upward VTLs suggest bullish momentum, downward VTLs bearish.
Price crossing below an upward VTL confirms a peak in the next longer cycle; crossing above a downward VTL confirms a trough.
Trading:
Buy: Price bounces off upward VTL or breaks above downward VTL.
Sell: Price rejects downward VTL or breaks below upward VTL.
Use channels for support/resistance, breakouts, or stop-loss/take-profit levels.
Workflow:
Add indicator on TradingView.
Enable desired cycles (e.g., 50-bar, 1600-bar), adjust pivotPeriod, channelFactor, and showOnlyCorrectSlope.
Monitor VTL crossings and channels for trade signals.
NotesOptimized for performance with line limits.
Ideal for cycle-based trend analysis across markets (stocks, forex, crypto).
Debug labels show pivot counts and VTL status.
This indicator supports Hurst’s Cyclic Theory for trend identification and trading decisions with flexible, cycle-based VTLs and channels.
Use global variable to scale to chart. best results use factors of 2 and double. try 2, 4, 8, 16...128, 256, etc until price action fits 95% in smallest cycle.
MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
1m Scalping ATR (with SL & Zones)A universal ATR indicator that anchors volatility to your stop-loss.
Read any market (FX, JPY pairs, Gold/Silver, indices, crypto) consistently—regardless of pip/point conventions and timeframe.
Why this indicator?
Classic ATR is absolute (pips/points) and feels different across markets/TFs. ATR Takeoff normalizes ATR to your stop-loss in pips and highlights clear zones for “quiet / ideal / too volatile,” so you instantly know if a 10-pip SL fits current conditions.
Key features
Auto pip detection (FX, JPY, XAU/XAG, indices, BTC/ETH).
Selectable ATR source: chart timeframe or fixed ATR TF (e.g., “15”, “30”, “60”).
Display modes:
Percent of SL – ATR relative to SL in %, great for M1 (typical 10–30%).
Multiple of SL – ATR as a multiple of SL (e.g., 0.6× / 1.0× / 1.2×).
Panel zones:
Green = “Ready for takeoff” (≤ Low), Yellow = reference (Mid), Red = too volatile (≥ High).
Status badge (top-right): Quiet / ATR ok / Wild, current ATR/SL value, ATR TF used.
Direction-agnostic: Works the same for longs and shorts.
Inputs (at a glance)
Length / Smoothing (RMA/SMA/EMA/WMA): ATR base settings.
Your Stop-Loss (Pips): Reference SL (e.g., 10).
ATR Timeframe (empty = chart): Use chart TF or a fixed TF.
Display Mode: “Percent of SL” or “Multiple of SL.”
Low/Mid/High (Percent Mode): Zone thresholds in % of SL.
Low/Mid/High (Multiple Mode): Zone thresholds in ×SL.
Recommended defaults
Length 14, Smoothing RMA, SL 10 pips
Display Mode: Percent of SL
Low/Mid/High (%): 15 / 20 / 25
ATR Timeframe: empty (= chart) for reactive, or “30” for smoother M30 context with M1 entries.
How to use
Set SL (pips). 2) Choose display mode. 3) Optionally pick ATR TF.
Interpretation:
≤ Low (green): setups allowed.
≈ Mid (yellow): neutral reference.
≥ High (red): too volatile → adjust SL/size or wait.
Note: Auto-pip relies on common ticker naming; verify on exotic symbols.
Disclaimer: For research/education. Not financial advice.
Trend Pivots Profile [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Trend Pivots Profile is a dynamic volume profile tool that builds profiles around pivot points to reveal where liquidity accumulates during trend shifts. When the market is in an uptrend , the indicator generates profiles at low pivots . In a downtrend , it builds them at high pivots . Each profile is constructed using lower timeframe volume data for higher resolution, making it highly precise even in limited space. A colored trendline helps traders instantly recognize the prevailing trend and anticipate which type of profile (bullish or bearish) will form.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Pivot-Driven Profiles : Profiles are only created when a new pivot forms, aligning liquidity analysis with market structure shifts.
Trend-Contextual : Profiles form at low pivots in uptrends and at high pivots in downtrends.
Lower Timeframe Data : Volume and close values are pulled from smaller timeframes to provide detailed, high-resolution profiles inside larger pivot windows.
Adaptive Bin Sizing : Bin size is automatically calculated relative to ATR, ensuring consistent precision across different markets and volatility conditions.
Point of Control (PoC) : The highest-volume level within each profile is marked with a PoC line that extends until the next pivot forms.
Trendline Visualization : A wide, semi-transparent line follows the rolling average of highs and lows, colored blue in uptrends and orange in downtrends.
🔵 FEATURES
Pivot Length Control : Adjust how far back the script looks to detect pivots (e.g., length 5 → profiles cover 10 bars after pivot).
Pivot Profile toggle :
On → draw the filled pivot profile + PoC + pivot label.
Off → hide profiles; show only PoC level (clean S/R mode).
Trend Length Filter : Smooths trendline detection to ensure reliable up/down bias.
Precise Volume Distribution : Volume is aggregated into bins, creating a smooth volume curve around the pivot range.
PoC Extension : Automatically extends the most active price level until a new pivot is confirmed.
Profile Visualization : Profiles appear as filled shapes anchored at the pivot candle, colored based on trend.
Trendline Overlay : Thick, semi-transparent trendline provides visual guidance on directional bias.
Automatic Cleanup : Old profiles are deleted once they exceed the chart’s capacity (default 25 stored profiles).
🔵 HOW TO USE
Spotting Trend Liquidity : In an uptrend, monitor profiles at low pivots to see where buyers concentrated. In downtrends, use high-pivot profiles to spot sell-side pressure.
Watch the PoC : The PoC line highlights the strongest traded level of the pivot structure—expect reactions when price retests it.
Anticipate Trend Continuation/Reversal : Use the trendline (blue = bullish, orange = bearish) together with pivot profiles to forecast directional momentum.
Combine with HTF Context : Overlay with higher timeframe structure (order blocks, liquidity zones, or FVGs) for confluence.
Fine-Tune with Inputs : Adjust Pivot Length for sensitivity and Trend Length for smoother or faster trend shifts.
🔵 CONCLUSION
The Trend Pivots Profile blends pivot-based structure with precise volume profiling. By dynamically plotting profiles on pivots aligned with the prevailing trend, highlighting PoCs, and overlaying a directional trendline, it equips traders with a clear view of liquidity clusters and directional momentum—ideal for anticipating reactions, pullbacks, or breakouts.
FirstStrike Long 200 - Daily Trend Rider [KedArc Quant]Strategy Description
FirstStrike Long 200 is a disciplined, long-only momentum strategy designed for daily "strike-first" entries in trending markets. It scans for RSI momentum above a customizable trigger (default 50), confirmed by EMA trend filters, and limits you to *exactly one trade per day* to avoid overtrading. It uses ATR for dynamic risk management (1.5x stop, 2:1 RR target) and optional trailing stops to ride winners. Backtested with realistic commissions and sizing, it prioritizes low drawdowns (<1% max in tests) over aggressive gains—ideal for swing traders seeking quality setups in bull runs.
Why It's Different from Other Strategies
Unlike generic RSI crossover bots or EMA ribbon mashups that spam signals and bleed in chop, FirstStrike enforces a "one-and-done" daily gate, blending precision momentum (RSI modes with grace/sustain) with robust filters (volume, sessions, rearm dips).
How It Helps Traders
- Reduces Emotional Trading: One entry/day forces discipline—miss a setup? Wait for tomorrow. Perfect for busy pros avoiding screen fatigue.
- Adapts to Regimes: Switch modes for trends ("Cross+Grace") vs. ranges ("Any bar")—boosts win rates 5-10% in backtests on high-beta names like .
- Risk-First Design: ATR scales stops to vol capping DD at 0.2% while targeting 2R winners. Trailing option locks +3-5% runs without early exits.
- Quick Insights: Labels/alerts flag entries with RSI values; bgcolor highlights signals for visual scanning. Helps spot "first-strike" edges in uptrends, filtering ~60% noise.
Why This Is Not a Mashup
This isn't a Frankenstein of off-the-shelf indicators—while it uses standard RSI/EMA/ATR (core Pine primitives), the innovation lies in:
- Custom Trigger Engine: Switchable modes (e.g., "Cross+Grace+Sustain" requires post-cross hold) prevent perpetual signals, unlike basic `ta.crossover()`.
- Daily Rearm Gate: Resets eligibility only after a dip (if enabled), tying momentum to mean-reversion—original logic not found in common scripts.
- Per-Day Isolation: `var` vars + `ta.change(time("D"))` ensure zero pyramiding/overlaps, beyond simple session filters.
All formulae are derived in-house for "first-strike" (early RSI pops in trends), not copied from public repos.
Input Configurations
Let's break down every input in the FirstStrike Long 200 strategy. These settings let you tweak the strategy like a dashboard—start with defaults for quick testing,
then adjust based on your asset or timeframe (5m for intraday). They're grouped logically to keep things organized, and most have tooltips in the script for quick reminders.
RSI / Trigger Group: The Heart of Momentum Detection
This is where the magic starts—the strategy hunts for "upward energy" using RSI (Relative Strength Index), a tool that measures if a stock is overbought (too hot) or oversold (too cold) on a 0-100 scale.
- RSI Length: How many bars (candles) back to calculate RSI. Default is 14, like a 14-day window for daily charts. Shorter (e.g., 9) makes it snappier for fast markets; longer (21) smooths out noise but misses quick turns.
- Trigger Level (RSI >= this): The key RSI value where the strategy says, "Go time!" Default 50 means enter when RSI crosses or holds above the neutral midline. Why is this trigger required? It acts as your "green light" filter—without it, you'd enter on every tiny price wiggle, leading to endless losers. RSI above this shows building buyer power, avoiding weak or sideways moves. It's essential for quality over quantity, especially in one-trade-per-day setups.
- Trigger Mode: Picks how strict the RSI signal must be. Options: "Cross only" (exact RSI crossover above trigger—super precise, fewer trades); "Cross+Grace" (crossover or within a grace window after—gives a second chance); "Cross+Grace+Sustain" (crossover/grace plus RSI holding steady for bars—best for steady climbs); "Any bar >= trigger" (looser, any bar above—more opportunities but riskier in chop). Start with "Any bar" for trends, switch to "Cross only" for caution.
- Grace Window (bars after cross): If mode allows, how many bars post-RSI-cross you can still enter if RSI dips but recovers. Default 30 (about 2.5 hours on 5m). Zero means no wiggle room—pure precision.
- Sustain Bars (RSI >= trigger): In sustain mode, how many straight bars RSI must stay above trigger. Default 3 ensures it's not a fluke spike.
- Require RSI Dip Below Rearm Before Any Entry?: A yes/no toggle. If on, the strategy "rearms" only after RSI dips below a low level (like a breather), preventing back-to-back signals in overextended rallies.
- Rearm Level (if requireDip=true): The dip threshold for rearming. Default 45—RSI must go below this to reset eligibility. Lower (30) for deeper pullbacks in volatile stocks.
For the trigger level itself, presets matter a lot—default 50 is neutral and versatile for broad trends. Bump to 55-60 for "strong momentum only" (fewer but higher-win trades, great in bull runs like tech surges); drop to 40-45 for "early bird" catches in recoveries (more signals but watch for fakes in ranges). The optimize hint (40-60) lets you test these in TradingView to match your risk—higher presets cut noise by 20-30% in backtests.
Trend / Filters Group: Keeping You on the Right Side of the Market
These EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) act like guardrails, ensuring you only long in uptrends.
- EMA (Fast) Confirmation: Short-term EMA for price action. Default 20 periods—price must be above this for "recent strength." Shorter (10) reacts faster to intraday pops.
- EMA (Trend Filter): Long-term EMA for big-picture trend. Default 200 (classic "above the 200-day" rule)—price above it confirms bull market. Minimum 50 to avoid over-smoothing.
Optional Hour Window Group: Timing Your Strikes
Avoid bad hours like lunch lulls or after-hours tricks.
- Restrict by Session?: Yes/no for using exact market hours. Default off.
- Session (e.g., 0930-1600 for NYSE): Time string like "0930-1600" for open to close. Auto-skips pre/post-market noise.
- Restrict by Hour Range?: Fallback yes/no for simple hours. Default off.
- Start Hour / End Hour: Clock times (0-23). Defaults 9-15 ET—focus on peak volume.
Volume Filter Group: No Volume, No Party
Confirms conviction—big moves need big participation.
- Require Volume > SMA?: Yes/no toggle. Default off—only fires on above-average volume.
- Volume SMA Length: Periods for the average. Default 20—compares current bar to recent norm.
Risk / Exits Group: Protecting and Profiting Smartly
Dynamic stops based on volatility (ATR = Average True Range) keep things realistic.
- ATR Length: Bars for ATR calc. Default 14—measures recent "wiggle room" in price.
- ATR Stop Multiplier: How far below entry for stop-loss. Default 1.5x ATR—gives breathing space without huge risk
- Take-Profit R Multiple: Reward target as multiple of risk. Default 2.0 (2:1 ratio)—aims for twice your stop distance.
- Use Trailing Stop?: Yes/no for profit-locking trail. Default off—activates after entry.
- Trailing ATR Multiplier: Trail distance. Default 2.0x ATR—looser than initial stop to let winners run.
These inputs make the strategy plug-and-play: Defaults work out-of-box for trending stocks, but tweak RSI trigger/modes first for your style.
Always backtest changes—small shifts can flip a 40% win rate to 50%+!
Outputs (Visuals & Alerts):
- Plots: Blue EMA200 (trend line), Orange EMA20 (price filter), Green dashed entry price.
- Labels: Green "LONG" arrow with RSI value on entries.
- Background: Light green highlight on signal bars.
- Alerts: "FirstStrike Long Entry" fires on conditions (integrates with TradingView notifications).
Entry-Exit Logic
Entry (Long Only, One Per Day):
1. Daily Reset: New day clears trade gate and (if required) rearm status.
2. Filters Pass: Time/session OK + Close > EMA200 (trend) + Close > EMA20 (price) + Volume > SMA (if enabled) + Rearmed (dip below rearm if toggled).
3. Trigger Fires: RSI >= trigger via selected mode (e.g., crossover + grace window).
4. Execute: Enter long at close; set daily flag to block repeats.
Exit:
- Stop-Loss: Entry - (ATR * 1.5) – dynamic, vol-scaled.
- Take-Profit: Entry + (Risk * 2.0) – fixed RR.
- Trailing (Optional): Activates post-entry; trails at Close - (ATR * 2.0), updating on each bar for trend extension.
No shorts or hedging—pure long bias.
Formulae Used
- RSI: `ta.rsi(close, rsiLen)` – Standard 14-period momentum oscillator (0-100).
- EMAs: `ta.ema(close, len)` – Exponential moving averages for trend/price filters.
- ATR: `ta.atr(atrLen)` – True range average for stop sizing: Stop = Entry - (ATR * mult).
- Volume SMA: `ta.sma(volume, volLen)` – Simple average for relative strength filter.
- Grace Window: `bar_index - lastCrossBarIndex <= graceBars` – Counts bars since RSI crossover.
- Sustain: `ta.barssince(rsi < trigger) >= sustainBars` – Consecutive bars above threshold.
- Session Check: `time(timeframe.period, sessionStr) != 0` – TradingView's built-in session validator.
- Risk Distance: `riskPS = entry - stop; TP = entry + (riskPS * RR)` – Asymmetric reward calc.
FAQ
Q: Why only one trade/day?
A: Prevents revenge trading in volatile sessions . Backtests show it cuts losers by 20-30% vs. multi-entry bots.
Q: Does it work on all assets/timeframes?
A: Best for trending stocks/indices on 5m-1H. Test on crypto/forex with wider ATR mult (2.0+).
Q: How to optimize?
A: Use TradingView's optimizer on RSI trigger (40-60) and EMA fast (10-30). Aim for PF >1.0 over 1Y data.
Q: Alerts don't fire—why?
A: Ensure `alertcondition` is enabled in script settings. Test with "Any alert() function calls only."
Q: Trailing stop too loose?
A: Tune `trailMult` to 1.5 for tighter; it activates alongside fixed TP/SL for hybrid protection.
Glossary
- Grace Window: Post-RSI-cross period (bars) where entry still allowed if RSI holds trigger.
- Rearm Dip: Optional pullback below a low RSI level (e.g., 45) to "reset" eligibility after signals.
- Profit Factor (PF): Gross profit / gross loss—>1.0 means winners outweigh losers.
- R Multiple: Risk units (e.g., 2R = 2x stop distance as target).
- Sustain Bars: Consecutive bars RSI stays >= trigger for mode confirmation.
Recommendations
- Backtest First: Run on your symbols (/) over 6-12M; tweak RSI to 55 for +5% win rate.
- Live Use: Start paper trading with `useSession=true` and `useVol=true` to filter noise.
- Pairs Well With: Higher TF (daily) for bias; add ADX (>25) filter for strong trends (code snippet in prior chats).
- Risk Note: 10% sizing suits $100k+ accounts; scale down for smaller. Not financial advice—past performance ≠ future.
- Publish Tip: Add tags like "momentum," "RSI," "long-only" on TradingView for visibility.
Strategy Properties & Backtesting Setup
FirstStrike Long 200 is configured with conservative, realistic backtesting parameters to ensure reliable performance simulations. These settings prioritize capital preservation and transparency, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders testing on stocks.
Initial Capital
$100,000 Standard starting equity for portfolio-level testing; scales well for retail accounts. Adjust lower (e.g., $10k) for smaller simulations.
Base Currency
Default (USD) Aligns with most US equities (e.g., NASDAQ symbols); auto-converts for other assets.
Order Size
1 (Quantity) Fixed share contracts for simplicity—e.g., buys 1 share per trade. For % of equity, switch to "Percent of Equity" in strategy code.
Pyramiding
0 Orders No additional entries on open positions; enforces strict one-trade-per-day discipline to avoid overexposure.
Commission
0.1% Realistic broker fee (e.g., Interactive Brokers tier); factors in round-trip costs without over-penalizing winners.
Verify Price for Limit Orders
0 Ticks No slippage delay on TPs—assumes ideal fills for historical accuracy.
Slippage
0 Ticks Zero assumed slippage for clean backtests; real-world trading may add 1-2 ticks on volatile opens.
These defaults yield low drawdowns (<0.3% max in tests) while capturing trend edges. For live trading, enable slippage (1-3 ticks) to mimic execution gaps. Always forward-test before deploying!
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
MARA / mNAV=1 (x)What it does
This script overlays two signals on the MARA chart:
mNAV=1 fair-value line — the MARA price implied by Bitcoin NAV:
mNAV1 = (BTC price × BTC holdings) / MARA shares
Premium/Discount ratio — how far MARA trades vs. its NAV fair value:
Ratio = Close / mNAV1 (1.00 = fair; >1 = premium; <1 = discount)
Inputs
Shares outstanding (default: 370,460,000)
BTC holdings (official or estimated; you can roll forward +25 BTC/day if you want)
BTC symbol used for pricing (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP)
How to use
When Price < mNAV=1 and Ratio < 1.00 → MARA trades at a discount to BTC NAV (potential mean-reversion if BTC is stable).
When Price > mNAV=1 and Ratio > 1.00 → premium (premium often compresses during BTC chop/weakness).
Rule of thumb (with ~53k BTC and 370.46M shares): +$1,000 BTC ≈ +$0.14 on the mNAV=1 line.
Visuals
Blue line = mNAV=1 (fair value) plotted directly on the MARA chart.
Purple line = Ratio (×) on a separate right-hand scale centered around 1.00.
Optional shading: green when Ratio > 1.05 (+5% premium), red when Ratio < 0.95 (−5% discount).
Alerts (suggested)
Premium > +5%: Ratio > 1.05
Discount < −5%: Ratio < 0.95
Notes
This is a proxy for NAV parity; it assumes your BTC holdings input is correct (official last report or your estimate).
Choice of BTC symbol matters; use the feed that best matches your workflow (spot, perp, or index).
The ratio is most informative when BTC is range-bound; during fast BTC moves MARA can overshoot temporarily.
Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator (EPZ) [BullByte]Extreme Pressure Zones Indicator(EPZ)
The Extreme Pressure Zones (EPZ) Indicator is a proprietary market analysis tool designed to highlight potential overbought and oversold "pressure zones" in any financial chart. It does this by combining several unique measurements of price action and volume into a single, bounded oscillator (0–100). Unlike simple momentum or volatility indicators, EPZ captures multiple facets of market pressure: price rejection, trend momentum, supply/demand imbalance, and institutional (smart money) flow. This is not a random mashup of generic indicators; each component was chosen and weighted to reveal extreme market conditions that often precede reversals or strong continuations.
What it is?
EPZ estimates buying/selling pressure and highlights potential extreme zones with a single, bounded 0–100 oscillator built from four normalized components. Context-aware weighting adapts to volatility, trendiness, and relative volume. Visual tools include adaptive thresholds, confirmed-on-close extremes, divergence, an MTF dashboard, and optional gradient candles.
Purpose and originality (not a mashup)
Purpose: Identify when pressure is building or reaching potential extremes while filtering noise across regimes and symbols.
Originality: EPZ integrates price rejection, momentum cascade, pressure distribution, and smart money flow into one bounded scale with context-aware weighting. It is not a cosmetic mashup of public indicators.
Why a trader might use EPZ
EPZ provides a multi-dimensional gauge of market extremes that standalone indicators may miss. Traders might use it to:
Spot Reversals: When EPZ enters an "Extreme High" zone (high red), it implies selling pressure might soon dominate. This can hint at a topside reversal or at least a pause in rallies. Conversely, "Extreme Low" (green) can highlight bottom-fish opportunities. The indicator's divergence module (optional) also finds hidden bullish/bearish divergences between price and EPZ, a clue that price momentum is weakening.
Measure Momentum Shifts: Because EPZ blends momentum and volume, it reacts faster than many single metrics. A rising MPO indicates building bullish pressure, while a falling MPO shows increasing bearish pressure. Traders can use this like a refined RSI: above 50 means bullish bias, below 50 means bearish bias, but with context provided by the thresholds.
Filter Trades: In trend-following systems, one could require EPZ to be in the bullish (green) zone before taking longs, or avoid new trades when EPZ is extreme. In mean-reversion systems, one might specifically look to fade extremes flagged by EPZ.
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: The dashboard can fetch a higher timeframe EPZ value. For example, you might trade a 15-minute chart only when the 60-minute EPZ agrees on pressure direction.
Components and how they're combined
Rejection (PRV) – Captures price rejection based on candle wicks and volume (see Price Rejection Volume).
Momentum Cascade (MCD) – Blends multiple momentum periods (3,5,8,13) into a normalized momentum score.
Pressure Distribution (PDI) – Measures net buy/sell pressure by comparing volume on up vs down candles.
Smart Money Flow (SMF) – An adaptation of money flow index that emphasizes unusual volume spikes.
Each of these components produces a 0–100 value (higher means more bullish pressure). They are then weighted and averaged into the final Market Pressure Oscillator (MPO), which is smoothed and scaled. By combining these four views, EPZ stands out as a comprehensive pressure gauge – the whole is greater than the sum of parts
Context-aware weighting:
Higher volatility → more PRV weight
Trendiness up (RSI of ATR > 25) → more MCD weight
Relative volume > 1.2x → more PDI weight
SMF holds a stable weight
The weighted average is smoothed and scaled into MPO ∈ with 50 as the neutral midline.
What makes EPZ stand out
Four orthogonal inputs (price action, momentum, pressure, flow) unified in a single bounded oscillator with consistent thresholds.
Adaptive thresholds (optional) plus robust extreme detection that also triggers on crossovers, so static thresholds work reliably too.
Confirm Extremes on Bar Close (default ON): dots/arrows/labels/alerts print on closed bars to avoid repaint confusion.
Clean dashboard, divergence tools, pre-alerts, and optional on-price gradients. Visual 3D layering uses offsets for depth only,no lookahead.
Recommended markets and timeframes
Best: liquid symbols (index futures, large-cap equities, major FX, BTC/ETH).
Timeframes: 5–15m (more signals; consider higher thresholds), 1H–4H (balanced), 1D (clear regimes).
Use caution on illiquid or very low TFs where wick/volume geometry is erratic.
Logic and thresholds
MPO ∈ ; 50 = neutral. Above 50 = bullish pressure; below 50 = bearish.
Static thresholds (defaults): thrHigh = 70, thrLow = 30; warning bands 5 pts inside extremes (65/35).
Adaptive thresholds (optional):
thrHigh = min(BaseHigh + 5, mean(MPO,100) + stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
thrLow = max(BaseLow − 5, mean(MPO,100) − stdev(MPO,100) × ExtremeSensitivity)
Extreme detection
High: MPO ≥ thrHigh with peak/slope or crossover filter.
Low: MPO ≤ thrLow with trough/slope or crossover filter.
Cooldown: 5 bars (default). A new extreme will not print until the cooldown elapses, even if MPO re-enters the zone.
Confirmation
"Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" (default ON) gates extreme markers, pre-alerts, and alerts to closed bars (non-repainting).
Divergences
Pivot-based bullish/bearish divergence; tags appear only after left/right bars elapse (lookbackPivot).
MTF
HTF MPO retrieved with lookahead_off; values can update intrabar and finalize at HTF close. This is disclosed and expected.
Inputs and defaults (key ones)
Core: Sensitivity=1.0; Analysis Period=14; Smoothing=3; Adaptive Thresholds=OFF.
Extremes: Base High=70, Base Low=30; Extreme Sensitivity=1.5; Confirm Extremes on Bar Close=ON; Cooldown=5; Dot size Small/Tiny.
Visuals: Heatmap ON; 3D depth optional; Strength bars ON; Pre-alerts OFF; Divergences ON with tags ON; Gradient candles OFF; Glow ON.
Dashboard: ON; Position=Top Right; Size=Normal; MTF ON; HTF=60m; compact overlay table on price chart.
Advanced caps: Max Oscillator Labels=80; Max Extreme Guide Lines=80; Divergence objects=60.
Dashboard: what each element means
Header: EPZ ANALYSIS.
Large readout: Current MPO; color reflects state (extreme, approaching, or neutral).
Status badge: "Extreme High/Low", "Approaching High/Low", "Bullish/Neutral/Bearish".
HTF cell (when MTF ON): Higher-timeframe MPO, color-coded vs extremes; updates intrabar, settles at HTF close.
Predicted (when MTF OFF): Simple MPO extrapolation using momentum/acceleration—illustrative only.
Thresholds: Current thrHigh/thrLow (static or adaptive).
Components: ASCII bars + values for PRV, MCD, PDI, SMF.
Market metrics: Volume Ratio (x) and ATR% of price.
Strength: Bar indicator of |MPO − 50| × 2.
Confidence: Heuristic gauge (100 in extremes, 70 in warnings, 50 with divergence, else |MPO − 50|). Convenience only, not probability.
How to read the oscillator
MPO Value (0–100): A reading of 50 is neutral. Values above ~55 are increasingly bullish (green), while below ~45 are increasingly bearish (red). Think of these as "market pressure".
Extreme Zones: When MPO climbs into the bright orange/red area (above the base-high line, default 70), the chart will display a dot and downward arrow marking that extreme. Traders often treat this as a sign to tighten stops or look for shorts. Similarly, a bright green dot/up-arrow appears when MPO falls below the base-low (30), hinting at a bullish setup.
Heatmap/Candles: If "Pressure Heatmap" is enabled, the background of the oscillator pane will fade green or red depending on MPO. Users can optionally color the price candles by MPO value (gradient candles) to see these extremes on the main chart.
Prediction Zone(optional): A dashed projection line extends the MPO forward by a small number of bars (prediction_bars) using current MPO momentum and acceleration. This is a heuristic extrapolation best used for short horizons (1–5 bars) to anticipate whether MPO may touch a warning or extreme zone. It is provisional and becomes less reliable with longer projection lengths — always confirm predicted moves with bar-close MPO and HTF context before acting.
Divergences: When price makes a higher high but EPZ makes a lower high (bearish divergence), the indicator can draw dotted lines and a "Bear Div" tag. The opposite (lower low price, higher EPZ) gives "Bull Div". These signals confirm waning momentum at extremes.
Zones: Warning bands near extremes; Extreme zones beyond thresholds.
Crossovers: MPO rising through 35 suggests easing downside pressure; falling through 65 suggests waning upside pressure.
Dots/arrows: Extreme markers appear on closed bars when confirmation is ON and respect the 5-bar cooldown.
Pre-alert dots (optional): Proximity cues in warning zones; also gated to bar close when confirmation is ON.
Histogram: Distance from neutral (50); highlights strengthening or weakening pressure.
Divergence tags: "Bear Div" = higher price high with lower MPO high; "Bull Div" = lower price low with higher MPO low.
Pressure Heatmap : Layered gradient background that visually highlights pressure strength across the MPO scale; adjustable intensity and optional zone overlays (warning / extreme) for quick visual scanning.
A typical reading: If the oscillator is rising from neutral towards the high zone (green→orange→red), the chart may see strong buying culminating in a stall. If it then turns down from the extreme, that peak EPZ dot signals sell pressure.
Alerts
EPZ: Extreme Context — fires on confirmed extremes (respects cooldown).
EPZ: Approaching Threshold — fires in warning zones if no extreme.
EPZ: Divergence — fires on confirmed pivot divergences.
Tip: Set alerts to "Once per bar close" to align with confirmation and avoid intrabar repaint.
Practical usage ideas
Trend continuation: In positive regimes (MPO > 50 and rising), pullbacks holding above 50 often precede continuation; mirror for bearish regimes.
Exhaustion caution: E High/E Low can mark exhaustion risk; many wait for MPO rollover or divergence to time fades or partial exits.
Adaptive thresholds: Useful on assets with shifting volatility regimes to maintain meaningful "extreme" levels.
MTF alignment: Prefer setups that agree with the HTF MPO to reduce countertrend noise.
Examples
Screenshots captured in TradingView Replay to freeze the bar at close so values don't fluctuate intrabar. These examples use default settings and are reproducible on the same bars; they are for illustration, not cherry-picking or performance claims.
Example 1 — BTCUSDT, 1h — E Low
MPO closed at 26.6 (below the 30 extreme), printing a confirmed E Low. HTF MPO is 26.6, so higher-timeframe pressure remains bearish. Components are subdued (Momentum/Pressure/Smart$ ≈ 29–37), with Vol Ratio ≈ 1.19x and ATR% ≈ 0.37%. A prior Bear Div flagged weakening impulse into the drop. With cooldown set to 5 bars, new extremes are rate-limited. Many traders wait for MPO to curl up and reclaim 35 or for a fresh Bull Div before considering countertrend ideas; if MPO cannot reclaim 35 and HTF stays weak, treat bounces cautiously. Educational illustration only.
Example 2 — ETHUSD, 30m — E High
A strong impulse pushed MPO into the extreme zone (≥ 70), printing a confirmed E High on close. Shortly after, MPO cooled to ~61.5 while a Bear Div appeared, showing momentum lag as price pushed a higher high. Volume and volatility were elevated (≈ 1.79x / 1.25%). With a 5-bar cooldown, additional extremes won't print immediately. Some treat E High as exhaustion risk—either waiting for MPO rollover under 65/50 to fade, or for a pullback that holds above 50 to re-join the trend if higher-timeframe pressure remains constructive. Educational illustration only.
Known limitations and caveats
The MPO line itself can change intrabar; extreme markers/alerts do not repaint when "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" is ON.
HTF values settle at the close of the HTF bar.
Illiquid symbols or very low TFs can be noisy; consider higher thresholds or longer smoothing.
Prediction line (when enabled) is a visual extrapolation only.
For coders
Pine v6. MTF via request.security with lookahead_off.
Extremes include crossover triggers so static thresholds also yield E High/E Low.
Extreme markers and pre-alerts are gated by barstate.isconfirmed when confirmation is ON.
Arrays prune oldest objects to respect resource limits; defaults (80/80/60) are conservative for low TFs.
3D layering uses negative offsets purely for drawing depth (no lookahead).
Screenshot methodology:
To make labels legible and to demonstrate non-repainting behavior, the examples were captured in TradingView Replay with "Confirm Extremes on Bar Close" enabled. Replay is used only to freeze the bar at close so plots don't change intrabar. The examples use default settings, include both Extreme Low and Extreme High cases, and can be reproduced by scrolling to the same bars outside Replay. This is an educational illustration, not a performance claim.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets involve risk; past behavior does not guarantee future results. You are responsible for your own testing, risk management, and decisions.
Atlantean Sideways / Range Regime DetectorPurpose
When using trend based indicators, you can skip the false signals when there is a sideways action, protecting you from the false signals.
Flags likely sideways/range phases using three checks:
Weak trend (ADX from DMI)
Price compression (Bollinger Band Width, normalized)
Low volatility (NATR = ATR/Price%)
Logic
isSideways = (ADX < adxThresh) AND (bbNorm < 0.25) AND (NATR < natrMax)
When true: bars + background turn teal and a provisional Range High/Low (rolling rangeWin) is drawn.
Key Inputs
DMI: diLen(22)
Optimized for 15 mins Bitcoin, could change it to 14 for more general approach
ADX: adxSmooth(14), adxThresh(18)
Volatility: lenATR(14), natrMax(1.8)
Visuals: rangeWin(20), bar/range toggles
Quick Tuning
More signals: raise adxThresh to 20–25, raise natrMax to 2.5–4.0, increase BB cutoff by editing bbNorm < 0.25 --> 0.35–0.50.
Smoother range lines: increase rangeWin to 30–40.
Use Cases
Mean reversion inside teal ranges.
Breakout prep when price closes outside the drawn range after teal ends. Could be used as a signal although not suggested.
Filter trend systems: skip trades when sidewaysCond is true. This is the main purpose, for it to be combined with trend based indicators, like Supertrend.
Alert
“Sideways Detected” triggers when isSideways is true.
Script could be expanded upon your requests.
FibPulse144 [CHE] FibPulse144 — ADX-gated 13/21 crossover with 144-trend regime and closed-bar labels
Summary
FibPulse144 combines a fast moving-average crossover with a 144-period trend regime and an ADX strength gate. Signals are confirmed on closed bars only and drawn as labels on the price chart, while an ADX line in a separate pane provides context. Color gradients are derived from normalized ADX, so visual intensity reflects trend strength without changing the underlying logic. The approach reduces false flips during weak conditions and keeps entries aligned with the dominant trend.
Motivation: Why this design?
Traditional crossover signals can flip repeatedly during sideways phases and often trigger against the higher-time regime. By requiring alignment with a slower trend proxy and by gating entries through a rising ADX condition, FibPulse144 favors structurally cleaner transitions. Gradient coloring communicates strength visually, helping users temper aggressiveness without additional indicators.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline: Classic dual-MA crossover with unconditional signals.
Architecture differences:
Two-bar regime confirmation against a 144-period trend average.
Pending-signal logic that waits for regime and optional ADX approval.
ADX strength gate using the prior reading relative to a user threshold and earlier value.
Gradient colors scaled by an ADX window with gamma controls.
Price-chart labels enforced via overlay on an otherwise pane-based indicator.
Practical effect: Fewer signals during weak or choppy conditions, labels that appear only after a bar closes, and color intensity that mirrors trend quality.
How it works (technical)
The script computes fast and slow moving averages using the selected method and lengths. A separate 144-length average defines the regime using a two-bar confirmation above or below it. Crossovers are observed on the previous bar to avoid intrabar ambiguity; once a prior crossover is detected, it is stored as pending. A pending long requires regime alignment and, if enabled, an ADX condition based on the previous reading being above the threshold and greater than an earlier reading. The state machine holds neutral, long, or short until an exit condition or ADX reset is met. ADX is normalized within a user window, scaled with gamma, and mapped to up and down color palettes to render gradients. Labels on the price panel are forced to overlay, while the ADX line and threshold guide remain in a separate pane.
Parameter Guide
Source — Input data for all calculations. Default: close. Tip: keep consistent with your chart.
MA Type — EMA or SMA. Default: EMA. EMA reacts faster; SMA is smoother.
Fast / Slow — Fast and slow lengths for crossover. Defaults: 13 and 21. Shorter reacts earlier; longer reduces noise.
Trend — Regime average length. Default: 144. Larger values stabilize regime; smaller values increase sensitivity.
Use 144 as trend filter — Enables regime gating. Default: true. Disable to allow raw crossovers.
Use ADX filter — Requires ADX strength. Default: true. Disable to allow signals regardless of strength.
ADX Len — DI and ADX smoothing length. Default: 14. Higher values smooth strength; lower values react faster.
ADX Thresh — Minimum strength for signals. Default: 25. Raise to reduce flips; lower to capture earlier moves.
Entry/Exit labels (price) — Price-panel labels on state changes. Default: true.
Signal labels in ADX pane — Small markers at the ADX value on entries. Default: true.
Label size — tiny, small, normal, large. Default: normal.
Enable barcolor — Optional candle tint by regime and gradient. Default: false.
Enable gradient — Turns on ADX-driven color blending. Default: true.
Window — Bars used to normalize ADX for colors. Default: 100; minimum: 5.
Gamma bars / Gamma plots — Nonlinear scaling for bar and line intensities. Default: 0.80; between 0.30 and 2.00.
Gradient transp (0–90) — Transparency for gradient colors. Default: 0.
MA fill transparency (0–100) — Fill opacity between fast and slow lines. Default: 65.
Palette colors (Up/Down) — Dark and neon endpoints for up and down gradients. Defaults as in the code.
Reading & Interpretation
Fast/Slow lines: When the fast line is above the slow line, the line and fill use the long palette; when below, the short palette is used.
Trend MA (144): Neutral gray line indicating the regime boundary.
Labels on price: “LONG” appears when the state turns long; “SHORT” when it turns short. Labels appear only after the bar closes and conditions are satisfied.
ADX pane: The ADX line shows current strength. The dotted threshold line is the user level for gating. Optional small markers indicate entries at the ADX value.
Bar colors (optional): Candle tint intensity reflects normalized ADX. Higher intensity implies stronger conditions.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Use long entries when fast crosses above slow and price has held above the trend average for two bars, with ADX above threshold. Mirror this for shorts below the trend average.
Exits and stops: Consider reducing exposure when price closes on the opposite side of the trend average for two consecutive bars or when ADX fades below the threshold if the ADX filter is enabled.
Structure confirmation: Combine with higher-timeframe structure such as swing highs and lows or a simple market structure overlay for confirmation.
Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Works across liquid assets. For lower timeframes, consider a slightly lower ADX threshold; for higher timeframes, maintain or raise the threshold to avoid unnecessary flips.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: Signals are based on previous-bar crossovers and are confirmed on bar close. No higher-timeframe or security calls are used. Intrabar markers are not relied upon.
Resources: The script declares `max_bars_back` of 2000, uses no loops or arrays, and employs persistent variables for pending signals and state.
Known limits: Crossover systems can lag after sudden reversals. During tight ranges, disabling the ADX filter may increase flips; keeping it enabled may skip early transitions.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Starting point: EMA, 13/21/144, ADX length 14, ADX threshold 25, gradients on, barcolor off.
Too many flips: Increase ADX threshold or length; increase trend length; consider SMA instead of EMA.
Too sluggish: Lower ADX threshold slightly; shorten fast and slow lengths; reduce the trend length.
Colors overpowering: Increase gradient transparency or reduce gamma values toward one.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and signal layer that combines crossover, regime, and strength gating. It does not predict future movements, manage risk, or execute trades. Use it alongside clear structure, risk controls, and a defined position management plan.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Hurst‑Millard FLD Normalized 2.0 – Signals "Hurst-Millard FLD Normalized 2.0 – Signals" indicator. It analyzes price data using a combination of moving averages (MAs) and the Hurst exponent to decompose price movements into trend, swing, and noise components, generating buy and sell signals. Here's a brief overview of its functionality:Inputs and Modes:Offers Auto Mode (cycle-based) and Manual Mode for configuring three moving averages: Long-Term (LT), Mid-Term (MT), and Short-Term (ST).
Auto Mode calculates MA lengths and offsets based on user-defined target cycle lengths (e.g., LT: 400 bars, MT: 100 bars, ST: 25 bars) with predefined offset ratios (0.2, 0.333, 0.5 respectively).
Manual Mode allows direct input of MA lengths and offsets.
Moving Averages:Computes Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for LT, MT, and ST based on the closing price.
Applies forward-shifting to simulate future price behavior (e.g., maLongFwd shifts the LT MA by the specified offset).
Decomposition:Trend: Derived from the forward-shifted LT MA (maLongFwd).
Swing: Calculated as the difference between MT and LT MAs, scaled as a percentage of the closing price and amplified (using ATR or a manual factor).
Noise: Calculated as the difference between ST and MT MAs, similarly scaled and amplified.
Hurst Exponent:Estimates the Hurst exponent to measure the persistence or mean-reversion of the noise component.
Uses a 50-bar lookback period, smoothed with a 5-period SMA.
Signal Generation:Generates buy signals when the noise component is less than the swing component and their difference is within a user-defined proximity threshold (default: 25% of swing).
Generates sell signals when noise exceeds swing within the same threshold.
Signals are plotted as diamond shapes at the calculated proximity price level.
Visualization:Plots the trend, swing, and noise components as lines with customizable colors and gradient intensity based on their relative strength.
Optional debugging plots for raw forward-shifted MAs and proximity thresholds.
Displays a periodic debug table (every 100 bars) showing key metrics like close price, MAs, trend, swing, noise, Hurst exponent, and more.
Additional Features:Supports ATR-based amplification for scaling swing and noise.
Allows customization of signal colors, diamond offsets, and proximity thresholds.
Includes debugging options to visualize raw MAs and proximity bands.
In summary, this indicator uses cycle-based or manually configured MAs to break down price action into trend, swing, and noise, calculates the Hurst exponent for noise analysis, and generates buy/sell signals based on the relationship between swing and noise within a proximity threshold. It’s designed for traders to identify potential trend reversals or continuations.
Dynamic Volume Trace Profile [ChartPrime]⯁ OVERVIEW
Dynamic Volume Trace Profile is a reimagined take on volume profile analysis. Instead of plotting a static horizontal histogram on the side of your chart, this indicator projects dynamic volume trace lines directly onto the price action. Each bin is color-graded according to its relative strength, creating a living “volume skeleton” of the market. The orange trace highlights the current Point of Control (POC)—the price level with maximum historical traded volume within the lookback window. On the right side, the tool builds a mini profile, showing absolute volume per bin alongside its percentage share, where the POC always represents 100% strength .
⯁ KEY FEATURES
Dynamic On-Chart Bins:
The range between highest high and lowest low is split into 25 bins. Each bin is drawn as a horizontal trace line across the lookback chart period.
Gradient Color Encoding:
Trace lines fade from transparent to teal depending on relative volume size. The more intense the teal, the stronger the historical traded activity at that level.
Automatic POC Highlight:
The bin with the highest aggregated volume is flagged with an orange line . This POC adapts bar-by-bar as volume distribution shifts.
Right-Side Volume Profile:
At the chart’s right edge, the script prints a box-style profile. Each bin shows:
• Total volume (absolute units).
• Percentage of max volume, in parentheses (POC bin = 100%).
This gives both raw and normalized context at a glance.
Adjustable Lookback Window:
The lookback defines how many bars feed the profile. Increase for stable HTF zones or decrease for responsive intraday distributions.
POC Toggle & Styling:
Optionally toggle POC highlighting on/off, adjust colors, and set line thickness for better integration with your chart theme.
⯁ HOW IT WORKS (UNDER THE HOOD)
Step Sizing:
over last 100 bars is divided by to calculate bin height.
Volume Aggregation:
For each bar in the , the script checks which bin the close falls into, then adds that bar’s volume to the bin’s counter.
Gradient Mapping:
Bin volume is normalized against the max volume across all bins. That value is mapped onto a gradient from transparent → teal.
POC Logic:
The bin with highest volume is colored orange both on the dynamic trace and in the right-side profile.
Right-Hand Profile:
Boxes are drawn for each bin proportional to volume / maxVolume × 50 units, with text labels showing both absolute volume and normalized %.
⯁ USAGE
Use the orange trace as the dominant “magnet” level—price often gravitates to the POC.
Watch for clusters of strong teal traces as areas of high acceptance; thin or faint zones mark low-liquidity gaps prone to fast moves.
On intraday charts, tighten lookback to reveal session-based distributions . For swing or position trading, expand lookback to surface more durable volume shelves.
Compare the right-side profile % to judge how “top-heavy” or “bottom-heavy” the current distribution is.
Use bright, intense color traces as context for confluence with structure, OBs, or liquidity hunts.
⯁ CONCLUSION
Dynamic Volume Trace Profile takes the traditional volume profile and fuses it into the body of price itself. Instead of a fixed sidebar, you see gradient traces layered directly on the chart, giving real-time context of where volume concentrated and where price may be drawn. With built-in POC highlighting, normalized % readouts, and an adaptive right-side profile, it offers both precision levels and market structure awareness in a cleaner, more intuitive form.
BOCS Channel Scalper Indicator - Mean Reversion Alert System# BOCS Channel Scalper Indicator - Mean Reversion Alert System
## WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES:
This is a mean reversion trading indicator that identifies consolidation channels through volatility analysis and generates alert signals when price enters entry zones near channel boundaries. **This indicator version is designed for manual trading with comprehensive alert functionality.** Unlike automated strategies, this tool sends notifications (via popup, email, SMS, or webhook) when trading opportunities occur, allowing you to manually review and execute trades. The system assumes price will revert to the channel mean, identifying scalp opportunities as price reaches extremes and preparing to bounce back toward center.
## INDICATOR VS STRATEGY - KEY DISTINCTION:
**This is an INDICATOR with alerts, not an automated strategy.** It does not execute trades automatically. Instead, it:
- Displays visual signals on your chart when entry conditions are met
- Sends customizable alerts to your device/email when opportunities arise
- Shows TP/SL levels for reference but does not place orders
- Requires you to manually enter and exit positions based on signals
- Works with all TradingView subscription levels (alerts included on all plans)
**For automated trading with backtesting**, use the strategy version. For manual control with notifications, use this indicator version.
## ALERT CAPABILITIES:
This indicator includes four distinct alert conditions that can be configured independently:
**1. New Channel Formation Alert**
- Triggers when a fresh BOCS channel is identified
- Message: "New BOCS channel formed - potential scalp setup ready"
- Use this to prepare for upcoming trading opportunities
**2. Long Scalp Entry Alert**
- Fires when price touches the long entry zone
- Message includes current price, calculated TP, and SL levels
- Notification example: "LONG scalp signal at 24731.75 | TP: 24743.2 | SL: 24716.5"
**3. Short Scalp Entry Alert**
- Fires when price touches the short entry zone
- Message includes current price, calculated TP, and SL levels
- Notification example: "SHORT scalp signal at 24747.50 | TP: 24735.0 | SL: 24762.75"
**4. Any Entry Signal Alert**
- Combined alert for both long and short entries
- Use this if you want a single alert stream for all opportunities
- Message: "BOCS Scalp Entry: at "
**Setting Up Alerts:**
1. Add indicator to chart and configure settings
2. Click the Alert (⏰) button in TradingView toolbar
3. Select "BOCS Channel Scalper" from condition dropdown
4. Choose desired alert type (Long, Short, Any, or Channel Formation)
5. Set "Once Per Bar Close" to avoid false signals during bar formation
6. Configure delivery method (popup, email, webhook for automation platforms)
7. Save alert - it will fire automatically when conditions are met
**Alert Message Placeholders:**
Alerts use TradingView's dynamic placeholder system:
- {{ticker}} = Symbol name (e.g., NQ1!)
- {{close}} = Current price at signal
- {{plot_1}} = Calculated take profit level
- {{plot_2}} = Calculated stop loss level
These placeholders populate automatically, creating detailed notification messages without manual configuration.
## KEY DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL BOCS:
**This indicator is designed for traders seeking higher trade frequency.** The original BOCS indicator trades breakouts OUTSIDE channels, waiting for price to escape consolidation before entering. This scalper version trades mean reversion INSIDE channels, entering when price reaches channel extremes and betting on a bounce back to center. The result is significantly more trading opportunities:
- **Original BOCS**: 1-3 signals per channel (only on breakout)
- **Scalper Indicator**: 5-15+ signals per channel (every touch of entry zones)
- **Trade Style**: Mean reversion vs trend following
- **Hold Time**: Seconds to minutes vs minutes to hours
- **Best Markets**: Ranging/choppy conditions vs trending breakouts
This makes the indicator ideal for active day traders who want continuous alert opportunities within consolidation zones rather than waiting for breakout confirmation. However, increased signal frequency also means higher potential commission costs and requires disciplined trade selection when acting on alerts.
## TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY:
### Price Normalization Process:
The indicator normalizes price data to create consistent volatility measurements across different instruments and price levels. It calculates the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined lookback period (default 100 bars). Current close price is normalized using: (close - lowest_low) / (highest_high - lowest_low), producing values between 0 and 1 for standardized volatility analysis.
### Volatility Detection:
A 14-period standard deviation is applied to the normalized price series to measure price deviation from the mean. Higher standard deviation values indicate volatility expansion; lower values indicate consolidation. The indicator uses ta.highestbars() and ta.lowestbars() to identify when volatility peaks and troughs occur over the detection period (default 14 bars).
### Channel Formation Logic:
When volatility crosses from a high level to a low level (ta.crossover(upper, lower)), a consolidation phase begins. The indicator tracks the highest and lowest prices during this period, which become the channel boundaries. Minimum duration of 10+ bars is required to filter out brief volatility spikes. Channels are rendered as box objects with defined upper and lower boundaries, with colored zones indicating entry areas.
### Entry Signal Generation:
The indicator uses immediate touch-based entry logic. Entry zones are defined as a percentage from channel edges (default 20%):
- **Long Entry Zone**: Bottom 20% of channel (bottomBound + channelRange × 0.2)
- **Short Entry Zone**: Top 20% of channel (topBound - channelRange × 0.2)
Long signals trigger when candle low touches or enters the long entry zone. Short signals trigger when candle high touches or enters the short entry zone. Visual markers (arrows and labels) appear on chart, and configured alerts fire immediately.
### Cooldown Filter:
An optional cooldown period (measured in bars) prevents alert spam by enforcing minimum spacing between consecutive signals. If cooldown is set to 3 bars, no new long alert will fire until 3 bars after the previous long signal. Long and short cooldowns are tracked independently, allowing both directions to signal within the same period.
### ATR Volatility Filter:
The indicator includes a multi-timeframe ATR filter to avoid alerts during low-volatility conditions. Using request.security(), it fetches ATR values from a specified timeframe (e.g., 1-minute ATR while viewing 5-minute charts). The filter compares current ATR to a user-defined minimum threshold:
- If ATR ≥ threshold: Alerts enabled
- If ATR < threshold: No alerts fire
This prevents notifications during dead zones where mean reversion is unreliable due to insufficient price movement. The ATR status is displayed in the info table with visual confirmation (✓ or ✗).
### Take Profit Calculation:
Two TP methods are available:
**Fixed Points Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short TP = Entry - (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
**Channel Percentage Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
- Short TP = Entry - (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
Default 50% targets the channel midline, a natural mean reversion target. These levels are displayed as visual lines with labels and included in alert messages for reference when manually placing orders.
### Stop Loss Placement:
Stop losses are calculated just outside the channel boundary by a user-defined tick offset:
- Long SL = ChannelBottom - (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short SL = ChannelTop + (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
This logic assumes channel breaks invalidate the mean reversion thesis. SL levels are displayed on chart and included in alert notifications as suggested stop placement.
### Channel Breakout Management:
Channels are removed when price closes more than 10 ticks outside boundaries. This tolerance prevents premature channel deletion from minor breaks or wicks, allowing the mean reversion setup to persist through small boundary violations.
## INPUT PARAMETERS:
### Channel Settings:
- **Nested Channels**: Allow multiple overlapping channels vs single channel
- **Normalization Length**: Lookback for high/low calculation (1-500, default 100)
- **Box Detection Length**: Period for volatility detection (1-100, default 14)
### Scalping Settings:
- **Enable Long Scalps**: Toggle long alert generation on/off
- **Enable Short Scalps**: Toggle short alert generation on/off
- **Entry Zone % from Edge**: Size of entry zone (5-50%, default 20%)
- **SL Offset (Ticks)**: Distance beyond channel for stop (1+, default 5)
- **Cooldown Period (Bars)**: Minimum spacing between alerts (0 = no cooldown)
### ATR Filter:
- **Enable ATR Filter**: Toggle volatility filter on/off
- **ATR Timeframe**: Source timeframe for ATR (1, 5, 15, 60 min, etc.)
- **ATR Length**: Smoothing period (1-100, default 14)
- **Min ATR Value**: Threshold for alert enablement (0.1+, default 10.0)
### Take Profit Settings:
- **TP Method**: Choose Fixed Points or % of Channel
- **TP Fixed (Ticks)**: Static distance in ticks (1+, default 30)
- **TP % of Channel**: Dynamic target as channel percentage (10-100%, default 50%)
### Appearance:
- **Show Entry Zones**: Toggle zone labels on channels
- **Show Info Table**: Display real-time indicator status
- **Table Position**: Corner placement (Top Left/Right, Bottom Left/Right)
- **Long Color**: Customize long signal color (default: darker green for readability)
- **Short Color**: Customize short signal color (default: red)
- **TP/SL Colors**: Customize take profit and stop loss line colors
- **Line Length**: Visual length of TP/SL reference lines (5-200 bars)
## VISUAL INDICATORS:
- **Channel boxes** with semi-transparent fill showing consolidation zones
- **Colored entry zones** labeled "LONG ZONE ▲" and "SHORT ZONE ▼"
- **Entry signal arrows** below/above bars marking long/short alerts
- **TP/SL reference lines** with emoji labels (⊕ Entry, 🎯 TP, 🛑 SL)
- **Info table** showing channel status, last signal, entry/TP/SL prices, risk/reward ratio, and ATR filter status
- **Visual confirmation** when alerts fire via on-chart markers synchronized with notifications
## HOW TO USE:
### For 1-3 Minute Scalping with Alerts (NQ/ES):
- ATR Timeframe: "1" (1-minute)
- ATR Min Value: 10.0 (for NQ), adjust per instrument
- Entry Zone %: 20-25%
- TP Method: Fixed Points, 20-40 ticks
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 2-3 bars to reduce alert spam
- **Alert Setup**: Configure "Any Entry Signal" for combined long/short notifications
- **Execution**: When alert fires, verify chart visuals, then manually place limit order at entry zone with provided TP/SL levels
### For 5-15 Minute Day Trading with Alerts:
- ATR Timeframe: "5" or match chart
- ATR Min Value: Adjust to instrument (test 8-15 for NQ)
- Entry Zone %: 20-30%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 40-60%
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 3-5 bars
- **Alert Setup**: Configure separate "Long Scalp Entry" and "Short Scalp Entry" alerts if you trade directionally based on bias
- **Execution**: Review channel structure on alert, confirm ATR filter shows ✓, then enter manually
### For 30-60 Minute Swing Scalping with Alerts:
- ATR Timeframe: "15" or "30"
- ATR Min Value: Lower threshold for broader market
- Entry Zone %: 25-35%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 50-70%
- SL Offset: 10-15 ticks
- Cooldown: 5+ bars or disable
- **Alert Setup**: Use "New Channel Formation" to prepare for setups, then "Any Entry Signal" for execution alerts
- **Execution**: Larger timeframes allow more analysis time between alert and entry
### Webhook Integration for Semi-Automation:
- Configure alert webhook URL to connect with platforms like TradersPost, TradingView Paper Trading, or custom automation
- Alert message includes all necessary order parameters (direction, entry, TP, SL)
- Webhook receives structured data when signal fires
- External platform can auto-execute based on alert payload
- Still maintains manual oversight vs full strategy automation
## USAGE CONSIDERATIONS:
- **Manual Discipline Required**: Alerts provide opportunities but execution requires judgment. Not all alerts should be taken - consider market context, trend, and channel quality
- **Alert Timing**: Alerts fire on bar close by default. Ensure "Once Per Bar Close" is selected to avoid false signals during bar formation
- **Notification Delivery**: Mobile/email alerts may have 1-3 second delay. For immediate execution, use desktop popups or webhook automation
- **Cooldown Necessity**: Without cooldown, rapidly touching price action can generate excessive alerts. Start with 3-bar cooldown and adjust based on alert volume
- **ATR Filter Impact**: Enabling ATR filter dramatically reduces alert count but improves quality. Track filter status in info table to understand when you're receiving fewer alerts
- **Commission Awareness**: High alert frequency means high potential trade count. Calculate if your commission structure supports frequent scalping before acting on all alerts
## COMPATIBLE MARKETS:
Works on any instrument with price data including stock indices (NQ, ES, YM, RTY), individual stocks, forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH), and commodities. Volume-based features are not included in this indicator version. Multi-timeframe ATR requires higher-tier TradingView subscription for request.security() functionality on timeframes below chart timeframe.
## KNOWN LIMITATIONS:
- **Indicator does not execute trades** - alerts are informational only; you must manually place all orders
- **Alert delivery depends on TradingView infrastructure** - delays or failures possible during platform issues
- **No position tracking** - indicator doesn't know if you're in a trade; you must manage open positions independently
- **TP/SL levels are reference only** - you must manually set these on your broker platform; they are not live orders
- **Immediate touch entry can generate many alerts** in choppy zones without adequate cooldown
- **Channel deletion at 10-tick breaks** may be too aggressive or lenient depending on instrument tick size
- **ATR filter from lower timeframes** requires TradingView Premium/Pro+ for request.security()
- **Mean reversion logic fails** in strong breakout scenarios - alerts will fire but trades may hit stops
- **No partial closing capability** - full position management is manual; you determine scaling out
- **Alerts do not account for gaps** or overnight price changes; morning alerts may be stale
## RISK DISCLOSURE:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This indicator provides signals for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Mean reversion strategies can experience extended drawdowns during trending markets. Alerts are not guaranteed to be profitable and should be combined with your own analysis. Stop losses may not fill at intended levels during extreme volatility or gaps. Never trade with capital you cannot afford to lose. Consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Always verify alerts against current market conditions before executing trades manually.
## ACKNOWLEDGMENT & CREDITS:
This indicator is built upon the channel detection methodology created by **AlgoAlpha** in the "Smart Money Breakout Channels" indicator. Full credit and appreciation to AlgoAlpha for pioneering the normalized volatility approach to identifying consolidation patterns. The core channel formation logic using normalized price standard deviation is AlgoAlpha's original contribution to the TradingView community.
Enhancements to the original concept include: mean reversion entry logic (vs breakout), immediate touch-based alert generation, comprehensive alert condition system with customizable notifications, multi-timeframe ATR volatility filtering, cooldown period for alert management, dual TP methods (fixed points vs channel percentage), visual TP/SL reference lines, and real-time status monitoring table. This indicator version is specifically designed for manual traders who prefer alert-based decision making over automated execution.
BOCS Channel Scalper Strategy - Automated Mean Reversion System# BOCS Channel Scalper Strategy - Automated Mean Reversion System
## WHAT THIS STRATEGY DOES:
This is an automated mean reversion trading strategy that identifies consolidation channels through volatility analysis and executes scalp trades when price enters entry zones near channel boundaries. Unlike breakout strategies, this system assumes price will revert to the channel mean, taking profits as price bounces back from extremes. Position sizing is fully customizable with three methods: fixed contracts, percentage of equity, or fixed dollar amount. Stop losses are placed just outside channel boundaries with take profits calculated either as fixed points or as a percentage of channel range.
## KEY DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL BOCS:
**This strategy is designed for traders seeking higher trade frequency.** The original BOCS indicator trades breakouts OUTSIDE channels, waiting for price to escape consolidation before entering. This scalper version trades mean reversion INSIDE channels, entering when price reaches channel extremes and betting on a bounce back to center. The result is significantly more trading opportunities:
- **Original BOCS**: 1-3 signals per channel (only on breakout)
- **Scalper Version**: 5-15+ signals per channel (every touch of entry zones)
- **Trade Style**: Mean reversion vs trend following
- **Hold Time**: Seconds to minutes vs minutes to hours
- **Best Markets**: Ranging/choppy conditions vs trending breakouts
This makes the scalper ideal for active day traders who want continuous opportunities within consolidation zones rather than waiting for breakout confirmation. However, increased trade frequency also means higher commission costs and requires tighter risk management.
## TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY:
### Price Normalization Process:
The strategy normalizes price data to create consistent volatility measurements across different instruments and price levels. It calculates the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined lookback period (default 100 bars). Current close price is normalized using: (close - lowest_low) / (highest_high - lowest_low), producing values between 0 and 1 for standardized volatility analysis.
### Volatility Detection:
A 14-period standard deviation is applied to the normalized price series to measure price deviation from the mean. Higher standard deviation values indicate volatility expansion; lower values indicate consolidation. The strategy uses ta.highestbars() and ta.lowestbars() to identify when volatility peaks and troughs occur over the detection period (default 14 bars).
### Channel Formation Logic:
When volatility crosses from a high level to a low level (ta.crossover(upper, lower)), a consolidation phase begins. The strategy tracks the highest and lowest prices during this period, which become the channel boundaries. Minimum duration of 10+ bars is required to filter out brief volatility spikes. Channels are rendered as box objects with defined upper and lower boundaries, with colored zones indicating entry areas.
### Entry Signal Generation:
The strategy uses immediate touch-based entry logic. Entry zones are defined as a percentage from channel edges (default 20%):
- **Long Entry Zone**: Bottom 20% of channel (bottomBound + channelRange × 0.2)
- **Short Entry Zone**: Top 20% of channel (topBound - channelRange × 0.2)
Long signals trigger when candle low touches or enters the long entry zone. Short signals trigger when candle high touches or enters the short entry zone. This captures mean reversion opportunities as price reaches channel extremes.
### Cooldown Filter:
An optional cooldown period (measured in bars) prevents signal spam by enforcing minimum spacing between consecutive signals. If cooldown is set to 3 bars, no new long signal will fire until 3 bars after the previous long signal. Long and short cooldowns are tracked independently, allowing both directions to signal within the same period.
### ATR Volatility Filter:
The strategy includes a multi-timeframe ATR filter to avoid trading during low-volatility conditions. Using request.security(), it fetches ATR values from a specified timeframe (e.g., 1-minute ATR while trading on 5-minute charts). The filter compares current ATR to a user-defined minimum threshold:
- If ATR ≥ threshold: Trading enabled
- If ATR < threshold: No signals fire
This prevents entries during dead zones where mean reversion is unreliable due to insufficient price movement.
### Take Profit Calculation:
Two TP methods are available:
**Fixed Points Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short TP = Entry - (TP_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
**Channel Percentage Mode**:
- Long TP = Entry + (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
- Short TP = Entry - (ChannelRange × TP_Percent)
Default 50% targets the channel midline, a natural mean reversion target. Larger percentages aim for opposite channel edge.
### Stop Loss Placement:
Stop losses are placed just outside the channel boundary by a user-defined tick offset:
- Long SL = ChannelBottom - (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
- Short SL = ChannelTop + (SL_Offset_Ticks × syminfo.mintick)
This logic assumes channel breaks invalidate the mean reversion thesis. If price breaks through, the range is no longer valid and position exits.
### Trade Execution Logic:
When entry conditions are met (price in zone, cooldown satisfied, ATR filter passed, no existing position):
1. Calculate entry price at zone boundary
2. Calculate TP and SL based on selected method
3. Execute strategy.entry() with calculated position size
4. Place strategy.exit() with TP limit and SL stop orders
5. Update info table with active trade details
The strategy enforces one position at a time by checking strategy.position_size == 0 before entry.
### Channel Breakout Management:
Channels are removed when price closes more than 10 ticks outside boundaries. This tolerance prevents premature channel deletion from minor breaks or wicks, allowing the mean reversion setup to persist through small boundary violations.
### Position Sizing System:
Three methods calculate position size:
**Fixed Contracts**:
- Uses exact contract quantity specified in settings
- Best for futures traders (e.g., "trade 2 NQ contracts")
**Percentage of Equity**:
- position_size = (strategy.equity × equity_pct / 100) / close
- Dynamically scales with account growth
**Cash Amount**:
- position_size = cash_amount / close
- Maintains consistent dollar exposure regardless of price
## INPUT PARAMETERS:
### Position Sizing:
- **Position Size Type**: Choose Fixed Contracts, % of Equity, or Cash Amount
- **Number of Contracts**: Fixed quantity per trade (1-1000)
- **% of Equity**: Percentage of account to allocate (1-100%)
- **Cash Amount**: Dollar value per position ($100+)
### Channel Settings:
- **Nested Channels**: Allow multiple overlapping channels vs single channel
- **Normalization Length**: Lookback for high/low calculation (1-500, default 100)
- **Box Detection Length**: Period for volatility detection (1-100, default 14)
### Scalping Settings:
- **Enable Long Scalps**: Toggle long entries on/off
- **Enable Short Scalps**: Toggle short entries on/off
- **Entry Zone % from Edge**: Size of entry zone (5-50%, default 20%)
- **SL Offset (Ticks)**: Distance beyond channel for stop (1+, default 5)
- **Cooldown Period (Bars)**: Minimum spacing between signals (0 = no cooldown)
### ATR Filter:
- **Enable ATR Filter**: Toggle volatility filter on/off
- **ATR Timeframe**: Source timeframe for ATR (1, 5, 15, 60 min, etc.)
- **ATR Length**: Smoothing period (1-100, default 14)
- **Min ATR Value**: Threshold for trade enablement (0.1+, default 10.0)
### Take Profit Settings:
- **TP Method**: Choose Fixed Points or % of Channel
- **TP Fixed (Ticks)**: Static distance in ticks (1+, default 30)
- **TP % of Channel**: Dynamic target as channel percentage (10-100%, default 50%)
### Appearance:
- **Show Entry Zones**: Toggle zone labels on channels
- **Show Info Table**: Display real-time strategy status
- **Table Position**: Corner placement (Top Left/Right, Bottom Left/Right)
- **Color Settings**: Customize long/short/TP/SL colors
## VISUAL INDICATORS:
- **Channel boxes** with semi-transparent fill showing consolidation zones
- **Colored entry zones** labeled "LONG ZONE ▲" and "SHORT ZONE ▼"
- **Entry signal arrows** below/above bars marking long/short entries
- **Active TP/SL lines** with emoji labels (⊕ Entry, 🎯 TP, 🛑 SL)
- **Info table** showing position status, channel state, last signal, entry/TP/SL prices, and ATR status
## HOW TO USE:
### For 1-3 Minute Scalping (NQ/ES):
- ATR Timeframe: "1" (1-minute)
- ATR Min Value: 10.0 (for NQ), adjust per instrument
- Entry Zone %: 20-25%
- TP Method: Fixed Points, 20-40 ticks
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 2-3 bars
- Position Size: 1-2 contracts
### For 5-15 Minute Day Trading:
- ATR Timeframe: "5" or match chart
- ATR Min Value: Adjust to instrument (test 8-15 for NQ)
- Entry Zone %: 20-30%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 40-60%
- SL Offset: 5-10 ticks
- Cooldown: 3-5 bars
- Position Size: Fixed contracts or 5-10% equity
### For 30-60 Minute Swing Scalping:
- ATR Timeframe: "15" or "30"
- ATR Min Value: Lower threshold for broader market
- Entry Zone %: 25-35%
- TP Method: % of Channel, 50-70%
- SL Offset: 10-15 ticks
- Cooldown: 5+ bars or disable
- Position Size: % of equity recommended
## BACKTEST CONSIDERATIONS:
- Strategy performs best in ranging, mean-reverting markets
- Strong trending markets produce more stop losses as price breaks channels
- ATR filter significantly reduces trade count but improves quality during low volatility
- Cooldown period trades signal quantity for signal quality
- Commission and slippage materially impact sub-5-minute timeframe performance
- Shorter timeframes require tighter entry zones (15-20%) to catch quick reversions
- % of Channel TP adapts better to varying channel sizes than fixed points
- Fixed contract sizing recommended for consistent risk per trade in futures
**Backtesting Parameters Used**: This strategy was developed and tested using realistic commission and slippage values to provide accurate performance expectations. Recommended settings: Commission of $1.40 per side (typical for NQ futures through discount brokers), slippage of 2 ticks to account for execution delays on fast-moving scalp entries. These values reflect real-world trading costs that active scalpers will encounter. Backtest results without proper cost simulation will significantly overstate profitability.
## COMPATIBLE MARKETS:
Works on any instrument with price data including stock indices (NQ, ES, YM, RTY), individual stocks, forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH), and commodities. Volume-based features require data feed with volume information but are optional for core functionality.
## KNOWN LIMITATIONS:
- Immediate touch entry can fire multiple times in choppy zones without adequate cooldown
- Channel deletion at 10-tick breaks may be too aggressive or lenient depending on instrument tick size
- ATR filter from lower timeframes requires higher-tier TradingView subscription (request.security limitation)
- Mean reversion logic fails in strong breakout scenarios leading to stop loss hits
- Position sizing via % of equity or cash amount calculates based on close price, may differ from actual fill price
- No partial closing capability - full position exits at TP or SL only
- Strategy does not account for gap openings or overnight holds
## RISK DISCLOSURE:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This strategy is for educational purposes and backtesting only. Mean reversion strategies can experience extended drawdowns during trending markets. Stop losses may not fill at intended levels during extreme volatility or gaps. Thoroughly test on historical data and paper trade before risking real capital. Use appropriate position sizing and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Automated trading systems can malfunction - monitor all live positions actively.
## ACKNOWLEDGMENT & CREDITS:
This strategy is built upon the channel detection methodology created by **AlgoAlpha** in the "Smart Money Breakout Channels" indicator. Full credit and appreciation to AlgoAlpha for pioneering the normalized volatility approach to identifying consolidation patterns. The core channel formation logic using normalized price standard deviation is AlgoAlpha's original contribution to the TradingView community.
Enhancements to the original concept include: mean reversion entry logic (vs breakout), immediate touch-based signals, multi-timeframe ATR volatility filtering, flexible position sizing (fixed/percentage/cash), cooldown period filtering, dual TP methods (fixed points vs channel percentage), automated strategy execution with exit management, and real-time position monitoring table.
BNF 25/50 MA Pullback Screener (Uptrend-Below / Downtrend-Above)Buy candidates: stocks in an uptrend (25MA > 50MA, optional rising slopes) that are currently pulled back below the MAs.
• Sell/short candidates: stocks in a downtrend (25MA < 50MA, optional falling slopes) that are currently pushed above the MAs.
It plots the MAs, paints the background for trend context, drops signals on the chart, shows a status panel, and exposes alert conditions so you can screen your watchlist via alerts.
Kalman Ema Crosses - [JTCAPITAL]Kalman EMA Crosses - is a modified way to use Kalman Filters applied on Exponential Moving Averages (EMA Crosses) for Trend-Following.
The Kalman filter is a recursive smoothing algorithm that reduces noise from raw price or indicator data, and in this script it is applied both directly to price and on top of EMA calculations. The goal is to create cleaner, more reliable crossover signals between two EMAs that are less prone to false triggers caused by volatility or market noise.
The indicator works by calculating in the following steps:
Source Selection
The script starts by selecting the price input (default is Close, but can be adjusted). This chosen source is the foundation for all further smoothing and EMA calculations.
Kalman Filtering on Price
Depending on user settings, the selected source is passed through one of two independent Kalman filters. The filter takes into account process noise (representing expected market randomness) and measurement noise (representing uncertainty in the price data). The Kalman filter outputs a smoothed version of price that minimizes noise and preserves underlying trend structure.
EMA Calculation
Two exponential moving averages (EMA 1 and EMA 2) are then computed on the Kalman-smoothed price. The lengths of these EMAs are fully customizable (default 15 and 25).
Kalman Filtering on EMA Values
Instead of directly using raw EMA curves, the script applies a second layer of Kalman filtering to the EMA values themselves. This step significantly reduces whipsaw behavior, creating smoother crossovers that emphasize real momentum shifts rather than temporary volatility spikes.
Trend Detection via EMA Crossovers
-A bullish trend is detected when EMA 1 (fast) crosses above EMA 2 (slow).
-A bearish trend is detected when EMA 1 crosses below EMA 2.
The detected trend state is stored and used to dynamically color the plots.
Visual Representation
Both EMAs are plotted on the chart. Their colors shift to blue during bullish phases and purple during bearish phases. The area between the two EMAs is filled with a shaded region to clearly highlight trending conditions.
Buy and Sell Conditions :
- Buy Condition : When the Kalman-smoothed EMA 1 crosses above the Kalman-smoothed EMA 2, a bullish crossover is confirmed.
- Sell Condition : When EMA 1 crosses below EMA 2, a bearish crossover is confirmed.
Users may enhance the robustness of these signals by adjusting process noise, measurement noise, or EMA lengths. Lower measurement noise values make the filter react faster (but potentially noisier), while higher values make it smoother (but slower).
Features and Parameters :
- Source : Selectable price input (Close, Open, High, Low, etc.).
- EMA 1 Length : Defines the fast EMA period.
- EMA 2 Length : Defines the slow EMA period.
- Process Noise : Controls how much randomness the Kalman filter assumes in price dynamics.
- Measurement Noise : Controls how much uncertainty is assumed in raw input data.
- Kalman Usage : Option to apply Kalman filtering either before EMA calculation (on price) or after (on EMA values).
Specifications :
Kalman Filter
The Kalman filter is an optimal recursive algorithm that estimates the state of a system from noisy measurements. In trading, it is used to smooth prices or indicator values. By balancing process noise (expected volatility) with measurement noise (data uncertainty), it generates a smoothed signal that reacts adaptively to market conditions.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
An EMA is a weighted moving average that emphasizes recent data more heavily than older data. This makes it more responsive than a simple moving average (SMA). EMAs are widely used to identify trends and momentum shifts.
EMA Crossovers
The crossing of a fast EMA above a slow EMA suggests bullish momentum, while the opposite suggests bearish momentum. This is a cornerstone technique in trend-following systems.
Dual Kalman Filtering
Applying Kalman both to raw price and to the EMAs themselves reduces whipsaws further. It creates crossover signals that are not only smoothed but also validated across two levels of noise reduction. This significantly enhances signal reliability compared to traditional EMA crossovers.
Process Noise
Represents the filter’s assumption about how much the underlying market can randomly change between steps. Higher values make the filter adapt faster to sudden changes, while lower values make it more stable.
Measurement Noise
Represents uncertainty in price data. A higher measurement noise value means the filter trusts the model more than the observed data, leading to smoother results. A lower value makes the filter more reactive to observed price fluctuations.
Trend Coloring & Fill
The use of dynamic colors and filled regions provides immediate visual recognition of trend states, helping traders act faster and with greater clarity.
Enjoy!
Stochastic [Paifc0de]Stochastic — clean stochastic oscillator with visual masking, neutral markers, and basic filters
What it does
This indicator plots a standard stochastic oscillator (%K with smoothing and %D) and adds practical quality-of-life features for lower timeframes: optional visual masking when %K hugs overbought/oversold, neutral K–D cross markers, session-gated edge triangles (K crossing 20/80), and simple filters (minimum %K slope, minimum |K–D| gap, optional %D slope agreement, mid-zone mute, and a cooldown between markers). Display values are clamped to 0–100 to keep the panel scale stable. The tool is for research/education and does not generate entries/exits or financial advice.
Default preset: 20 / 10 / 10
K Length = 20
Classic lookback used in many textbooks. On intraday charts it balances responsiveness and stability: short enough to react to momentum shifts, long enough to avoid constant whipsaws. In practice it captures ~the last 20 bars’ position of close within the high–low range.
K Smoothing = 10
A 10-period SMA applied to the raw %K moderates the “saw-tooth” effect that raw stochastic can exhibit in choppy phases. The smoothing reduces over-reaction to micro spikes while preserving the main rhythm of swings; visually, %K becomes a continuous path that is easier to read.
D Length = 10
%D is the moving average of smoothed %K. With 10, %D becomes a clearly slower guide line. The larger separation between %K(10-SMA) and %D(10-SMA of %K) produces cleaner crosses and fewer spurious toggles than micro settings (e.g., 3/3/3). On M5–M15 this pair often yields readable cross cycles without flooding the chart.
How the 20/10/10 trio behaves
In persistent trends, %K will spend more time near 20 or 80; the 10-period smoothing delays flips slightly and emphasizes only meaningful turn attempts.
In ranges, %K oscillates around mid-zone (40–60). With 10/10 smoothing, cross signals cluster less densely; combining with the |K–D| gap filter helps keep only decisive crosses.
If your symbol is unusually volatile or illiquid, reduce K Length (e.g., 14) or reduce K Smoothing (e.g., 7) to keep responsiveness. If crosses feel late, decrease D Length (e.g., 7). If noise is excessive, increase K Smoothing first, then consider raising D Length.
Visuals
OB/OS lines: default 80/20 reference levels and a midline at 50.
Masking near edges: %K can be temporarily hidden when it is pressing an edge, approaching it with low slope, or going nearly flat near the boundary. This keeps the panel readable during “stuck at the edge” phases.
Soft glow (optional): highlights %K’s active path; can be turned off.
Light/Dark palette: quick toggle to match your chart theme.
Scale safety: all plotted values (lines, fills, markers) are clamped to 0–100 to prevent the axis from expanding beyond the stochastic range.
Markers and filters
Neutral K–D cross markers: circles in the mid-zone when %K crosses %D.
Edge triangles: show when %K crosses 20 or 80; can be restricted to a session window (02:00–12:00 ET).
Filters (optional):
Min %K slope: require a minimum absolute slope so very flat crosses are ignored.
Min |K–D| gap: demand separation between lines at the cross moment.
%D slope agreement: keep crosses that align with %D’s direction.
Mid-zone mute: suppress crosses inside a user-defined 40–60 band (defaults).
Cooldown: minimum bars between successive markers.
Parameters (quick guide)
K Length / K Smoothing / D Length: core stochastic settings. Start with 20/10/10; tune K Smoothing first if you see too much jitter.
Overbought / Oversold (80/20): adjust for assets that tend to trend (raise to 85/15) or mean-revert (lower to 75/25).
Slope & gap filters: increase on very noisy symbols; reduce if you miss too many crosses.
Session window (triangles only): use if you want edge markers only during active hours.
Marker size and offset: cosmetic; they do not affect calculations.
Alerts
K–D Cross Up (filtered) and K–D Cross Down (filtered): fire when a cross passes your filters/cooldown.
Edge Up / Edge Down: fire when %K crosses the 20/80 levels.
All alerts confirm on bar close.
Notes & attribution
Original implementation and integration by Paifc0de; no third-party code is copied.
This indicator is for research/education and does not provide entries/exits or financial advice.
Initial Balance Breakout Signals [LuxAlgo]The Initial Balance Breakout Signals help traders identify breakouts of the Initial Balance (IB) range.
The indicator includes automatic detection of IB or can use custom sessions, highlights top and bottom IB extensions, custom Fibonacci levels, and goes further with an IB forecast with two different modes.
🔶 USAGE
The initial balance is the price range made within the first hour of the trading session. It is an intraday concept based on the idea that high volume and volatility enter the market through institutional trading at the start of the session, setting the tone for the rest of the day.
The initial balance is useful for gauging market sentiment, or, in other words, the relationship between buyers and sellers.
Bullish sentiment: Price trades above the IB range.
Mixed sentiment: Price trades within the IB range.
Bearish sentiment: Price trades below the IB range.
The initial balance high and low are important levels that many traders use to gauge sentiment. There are two main ideas behind trading around the IB range.
IB Extreme Breakout: When the price breaks and holds the IB high or low, there is a high probability that the price will continue in that direction.
IB Extreme Rejection: When the price tries to break those levels but fails, there is a high probability that it will reach the opposite IB extreme.
This indicator is a complete Initial Balance toolset with custom sessions, breakout signals, IB extensions, Fibonacci retracements, and an IB forecast. All of these features will be explained in the following sections.
🔹 Custom Sessions and Signals
By default, sessions for Initial Balance and breakout signals are in Auto mode. This means that Initial Balance takes the first hour of the trading session and shows breakout signals for the rest of the session.
With this option, traders can use the tool for open range trading, making it highly versatile. The concept behind open range (OR) is the same as that of initial balance (IB), but in OR, the range is determined by the first minute, three or five minutes, or up to the first 30 minutes of the trading session.
As shown in the image above, the top chart uses the Auto feature for the IB and Breakouts sessions. The bottom chart has the Auto feature disabled to use custom sessions for both parameters. In this case, the first three minutes of the trading session are used, turning the tool into an Open Range trading indicator.
This chart shows another example of using custom sessions to display overnight NASDAQ futures sessions.
The left chart shows a custom session from the Tokyo open to the London open, and the right chart shows a custom session from the London open to the New York open.
The chart shows both the Asian and European sessions, their top and bottom extremes, and the breakout signals from those extremes.
🔹 Initial Balance Extensions
Traders can easily extend both extremes of the Initial Balance to display their preferred targets for breakouts. Enable or disable any of them and set the IB percentage to use for the extension.
As the chart shows, the percentage selected on the settings panel directly affects the displayed levels.
Setting 25 means the tool will use a quarter of the detected initial balance range for extensions beyond the IB extremes. Setting 100 means the full IB range will be used.
Traders can use these extensions as targets for breakout signals.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Traders can display default or custom Fibonacci levels on the IB range to trade retracements and assess the strength of market movements. Each level can be enabled or disabled and customized by level, color, and line style.
As we can see on the chart, after the IB was completed, prices were unable to fall below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This indicates significant bullish pressure, so it is expected that prices will rise.
Traders can use these levels as guidelines to assess the strength of the side trying to penetrate the IB. In this case, the sellers were unable to move the market beyond the first level.
🔹 Initial Balance Forecast
The tool features two different forecasting methods for the current IB. By default, it takes the average of the last ten values and applies a multiplier of one.
IB Against Previous Open: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the previous session.
Filter by current day of the week: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the current session for the same day of the week.
This feature allows traders to see the difference between the current IB and the average of the last IBs. It makes it very easy to interpret: if the current IB is higher than the average, buyers are in control; if it is lower than the average, sellers are in control.
For example, on the left side of the chart, we can see that the last day was very bullish because the IB was completely above the forecasted value. This is the IB mean of the last ten trading days.
On the right, we can see that on Monday, September 15, the IB traded slightly higher but within the forecasted value of the IB mean of the last ten Mondays. In this case, it is within expectations.
🔶 SETTINGS
Display Last X IBs: Select how many IBs to display.
Initial Balance: Choose a custom session or enable the Auto feature.
Breakouts: Enable or disable breakouts. Choose custom session or enable the Auto feature.
🔹 Extensions
Top Extension: Enable or disable the top extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
Bottom extension: Enable or disable the bottom extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Display Fibonacci: Enable or disable Fibonacci levels.
Reverse: Reverse Fibonacci levels.
Levels, Colors & Style
Display Labels: Enable or disable labels and choose text size.
🔹 Forecast
Display Forecast: Select the forecast method.
- IB Against Previous Open: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the previous day's IB open price.
- Filter by Current Day of Week: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the IB open price for the same day of the week.
Forecast Memory: The number of data points used to calculate the average.
Forecast Multiplier: This multiplier will be applied to the average. Bigger numbers will result in wider predicted ranges.
Forecast Colors: Choose from a variety of colors.
Forecast Style: Choose a line style.
🔹 Style
Initial Balance Colors
Extension Transparency: Choose the extension's transparency. 0 is solid, and 100 is fully transparent.
Options Max Pain Calculator [BackQuant]Options Max Pain Calculator
A visualization tool that models option expiry dynamics by calculating "max pain" levels, displaying synthetic open interest curves, gamma exposure profiles, and pin-risk zones to help identify where market makers have the least payout exposure.
What is Max Pain?
Max Pain is the theoretical expiration price where the total dollar value of outstanding options would be minimized. At this price level, option holders collectively experience maximum losses while option writers (typically market makers) have minimal payout obligations. This creates a natural gravitational pull as expiration approaches.
Core Features
Visual Analysis Components:
Max Pain Line: Horizontal line showing the calculated minimum pain level
Strike Level Grid: Major support and resistance levels at key option strikes
Pin Zone: Highlighted area around max pain where price may gravitate
Pain Heatmap: Color-coded visualization showing pain distribution across prices
Gamma Exposure Profile: Bar chart displaying net gamma at each strike level
Real-time Dashboard: Summary statistics and risk metrics
Synthetic Market Modeling**
Since Pine Script cannot access live options data, the indicator creates realistic synthetic open interest distributions based on configurable market parameters including volume patterns, put/call ratios, and market maker positioning.
How It Works
Strike Generation:
The tool creates a grid of option strikes centered around the current price. You can control the range, density, and whether strikes snap to realistic market increments.
Open Interest Modeling:
Using your inputs for average volume, put/call ratios, and market maker behavior, the indicator generates synthetic open interest that mirrors real market dynamics:
Higher volume at-the-money with decay as strikes move further out
Adjustable put/call bias to reflect current market sentiment
Market maker inventory effects and typical short-gamma positioning
Weekly options boost for near-term expirations
Pain Calculation:
For each potential expiry price, the tool calculates total option payouts:
Call options contribute pain when finishing in-the-money
Put options contribute pain when finishing in-the-money
The strike with minimum total pain becomes the Max Pain level
Gamma Analysis:
Net gamma exposure is calculated at each strike using standard option pricing models, showing where hedging flows may be most intense. Positive gamma creates price support while negative gamma can amplify moves.
Key Settings
Basic Configuration:
Number of Strikes: Controls grid density (recommended: 15-25)
Days to Expiration: Time until option expiry
Strike Range: Price range around current level (recommended: 8-15%)
Strike Increment: Spacing between strikes
Market Parameters:
Average Daily Volume: Baseline for synthetic open interest
Put/Call Volume Ratio: Market sentiment bias (>1.0 = bearish, <1.0 = bullish) It does not work if set to 1.0
Implied Volatility: Current option volatility estimate
Market Maker Factors: Dealer positioning and hedging intensity
Display Options:
Model Complexity: Simple (line only), Standard (+ zones), Advanced (+ heatmap/gamma)
Visual Elements: Toggle individual components on/off
Theme: Dark/Light mode
Update Frequency: Real-time or daily calculation
Reading the Display
Dashboard Table (Top Right):
Current Price vs Max Pain Level
Distance to Pain: Percentage gap (smaller = higher pin risk)
Pin Risk Assessment: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW based on proximity and time
Days to Expiry and Strike Count
Model complexity level
Visual Elements:
Red Line: Max Pain level where payout is minimized
Colored Zone: Pin risk area around max pain
Dotted Lines: Major strike levels (green = support, orange = resistance)
Color Bar: Pain heatmap (blue = high pain, red = low pain/max pain zones)
Horizontal Bars: Gamma exposure (green = positive, red = negative)
Yellow Dotted Line: Gamma flip level where hedging behavior changes
Trading Applications
Expiration Pinning:
When price is near max pain with limited time remaining, there's increased probability of gravitating toward that level as market makers hedge their positions.
Support and Resistance:
High open interest strikes often act as magnets, with max pain representing the strongest gravitational pull.
Volatility Expectations:
Above gamma flip: Expect dampened volatility (long gamma environment)
Below gamma flip: Expect amplified moves (short gamma environment)
Risk Assessment:
The pin risk indicator helps gauge likelihood of price manipulation near expiry, with HIGH risk suggesting potential range-bound action.
Best Practices
Setup Recommendations
Start with Model Complexity set to "Standard"
Use realistic strike ranges (8-12% for most assets)
Set put/call ratio based on current market sentiment
Adjust implied volatility to match current levels
Interpretation Guidelines:
Small distance to pain + short time = high pin probability
Large gamma bars indicate key hedging levels to monitor
Heatmap intensity shows strength of pain concentration
Multiple nearby strikes can create wider pin zones
Update Strategy:
Use "Daily" updates for cleaner visuals during trading hours
Switch to "Every Bar" for real-time analysis near expiration
Monitor changes in max pain level as new options activity emerges
Important Disclaimers
This is a modeling tool using synthetic data, not live market information. While the calculations are mathematically sound and the modeling realistic, actual market dynamics involve numerous factors not captured in any single indicator.
Max pain represents theoretical minimum payout levels and suggests where natural market forces may create gravitational pull, but it does not guarantee price movement or predict exact expiration levels. Market gaps, news events, and changing volatility can override these dynamics.
Use this tool as additional context for your analysis, not as a standalone trading signal. The synthetic nature of the data makes it most valuable for understanding market structure and potential zones of interest rather than precise price prediction.
Technical Notes
The indicator uses established option pricing principles with simplified implementations optimized for Pine Script performance. Gamma calculations use standard financial models while pain calculations follow the industry-standard definition of minimized option payouts.
All visual elements use fixed positioning to prevent movement when scrolling charts, and the tool includes performance optimizations to handle real-time calculation without timeout errors.
Small Business Economic Conditions - Statistical Analysis ModelThe Small Business Economic Conditions Statistical Analysis Model (SBO-SAM) represents an econometric approach to measuring and analyzing the economic health of small business enterprises through multi-dimensional factor analysis and statistical methodologies. This indicator synthesizes eight fundamental economic components into a composite index that provides real-time assessment of small business operating conditions with statistical rigor. The model employs Z-score standardization, variance-weighted aggregation, higher-order moment analysis, and regime-switching detection to deliver comprehensive insights into small business economic conditions with statistical confidence intervals and multi-language accessibility.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Foundation
The development of quantitative models for assessing small business economic conditions has gained significant importance in contemporary financial analysis, particularly given the critical role small enterprises play in economic development and employment generation. Small businesses, typically defined as enterprises with fewer than 500 employees according to the U.S. Small Business Administration, constitute approximately 99.9% of all businesses in the United States and employ nearly half of the private workforce (U.S. Small Business Administration, 2024).
The theoretical framework underlying the SBO-SAM model draws extensively from established academic research in small business economics and quantitative finance. The foundational understanding of key drivers affecting small business performance builds upon the seminal work of Dunkelberg and Wade (2023) in their analysis of small business economic trends through the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends survey. Their research established the critical importance of optimism, hiring plans, capital expenditure intentions, and credit availability as primary determinants of small business performance.
The model incorporates insights from Federal Reserve Board research, particularly the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Federal Reserve Board, 2024), which demonstrates the critical importance of credit market conditions in small business operations. This research consistently shows that small businesses face disproportionate challenges during periods of credit tightening, as they typically lack access to capital markets and rely heavily on bank financing.
The statistical methodology employed in this model follows the econometric principles established by Hamilton (1989) in his work on regime-switching models and time series analysis. Hamilton's framework provides the theoretical foundation for identifying different economic regimes and understanding how economic relationships may vary across different market conditions. The variance-weighted aggregation technique draws from modern portfolio theory as developed by Markowitz (1952) and later refined by Sharpe (1964), applying these concepts to economic indicator construction rather than traditional asset allocation.
Additional theoretical support comes from the work of Engle and Granger (1987) on cointegration analysis, which provides the statistical framework for combining multiple time series while maintaining long-term equilibrium relationships. The model also incorporates insights from behavioral economics research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) on prospect theory, recognizing that small business decision-making may exhibit systematic biases that affect economic outcomes.
2. Model Architecture and Component Structure
The SBO-SAM model employs eight orthogonalized economic factors that collectively capture the multifaceted nature of small business operating conditions. Each component is normalized using Z-score standardization with a rolling 252-day window, representing approximately one business year of trading data. This approach ensures statistical consistency across different market regimes and economic cycles, following the methodology established by Tsay (2010) in his treatment of financial time series analysis.
2.1 Small Cap Relative Performance Component
The first component measures the performance of the Russell 2000 index relative to the S&P 500, capturing the market-based assessment of small business equity valuations. This component reflects investor sentiment toward smaller enterprises and provides a forward-looking perspective on small business prospects. The theoretical justification for this component stems from the efficient market hypothesis as formulated by Fama (1970), which suggests that stock prices incorporate all available information about future prospects.
The calculation employs a 20-day rate of change with exponential smoothing to reduce noise while preserving signal integrity. The mathematical formulation is:
Small_Cap_Performance = (Russell_2000_t / S&P_500_t) / (Russell_2000_{t-20} / S&P_500_{t-20}) - 1
This relative performance measure eliminates market-wide effects and isolates the specific performance differential between small and large capitalization stocks, providing a pure measure of small business market sentiment.
2.2 Credit Market Conditions Component
Credit Market Conditions constitute the second component, incorporating commercial lending volumes and credit spread dynamics. This factor recognizes that small businesses are particularly sensitive to credit availability and borrowing costs, as established in numerous Federal Reserve studies (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). Small businesses typically face higher borrowing costs and more stringent lending standards compared to larger enterprises, making credit conditions a critical determinant of their operating environment.
The model calculates credit spreads using high-yield bond ETFs relative to Treasury securities, providing a market-based measure of credit risk premiums that directly affect small business borrowing costs. The component also incorporates commercial and industrial loan growth data from the Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, which provides direct evidence of lending activity to businesses.
The mathematical specification combines these elements as:
Credit_Conditions = α₁ × (HYG_t / TLT_t) + α₂ × C&I_Loan_Growth_t
where HYG represents high-yield corporate bond ETF prices, TLT represents long-term Treasury ETF prices, and C&I_Loan_Growth represents the rate of change in commercial and industrial loans outstanding.
2.3 Labor Market Dynamics Component
The Labor Market Dynamics component captures employment cost pressures and labor availability metrics through the relationship between job openings and unemployment claims. This factor acknowledges that labor market tightness significantly impacts small business operations, as these enterprises typically have less flexibility in wage negotiations and face greater challenges in attracting and retaining talent during periods of low unemployment.
The theoretical foundation for this component draws from search and matching theory as developed by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), which explains how labor market frictions affect employment dynamics. Small businesses often face higher search costs and longer hiring processes, making them particularly sensitive to labor market conditions.
The component is calculated as:
Labor_Tightness = Job_Openings_t / (Unemployment_Claims_t × 52)
This ratio provides a measure of labor market tightness, with higher values indicating greater difficulty in finding workers and potential wage pressures.
2.4 Consumer Demand Strength Component
Consumer Demand Strength represents the fourth component, combining consumer sentiment data with retail sales growth rates. Small businesses are disproportionately affected by consumer spending patterns, making this component crucial for assessing their operating environment. The theoretical justification comes from the permanent income hypothesis developed by Friedman (1957), which explains how consumer spending responds to both current conditions and future expectations.
The model weights consumer confidence and actual spending data to provide both forward-looking sentiment and contemporaneous demand indicators. The specification is:
Demand_Strength = β₁ × Consumer_Sentiment_t + β₂ × Retail_Sales_Growth_t
where β₁ and β₂ are determined through principal component analysis to maximize the explanatory power of the combined measure.
2.5 Input Cost Pressures Component
Input Cost Pressures form the fifth component, utilizing producer price index data to capture inflationary pressures on small business operations. This component is inversely weighted, recognizing that rising input costs negatively impact small business profitability and operating conditions. Small businesses typically have limited pricing power and face challenges in passing through cost increases to customers, making them particularly vulnerable to input cost inflation.
The theoretical foundation draws from cost-push inflation theory as described by Gordon (1988), which explains how supply-side price pressures affect business operations. The model employs a 90-day rate of change to capture medium-term cost trends while filtering out short-term volatility:
Cost_Pressure = -1 × (PPI_t / PPI_{t-90} - 1)
The negative weighting reflects the inverse relationship between input costs and business conditions.
2.6 Monetary Policy Impact Component
Monetary Policy Impact represents the sixth component, incorporating federal funds rates and yield curve dynamics. Small businesses are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their higher reliance on variable-rate financing and limited access to capital markets. The theoretical foundation comes from monetary transmission mechanism theory as developed by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), which explains how monetary policy affects different segments of the economy.
The model calculates the absolute deviation of federal funds rates from a neutral 2% level, recognizing that both extremely low and high rates can create operational challenges for small enterprises. The yield curve component captures the shape of the term structure, which affects both borrowing costs and economic expectations:
Monetary_Impact = γ₁ × |Fed_Funds_Rate_t - 2.0| + γ₂ × (10Y_Yield_t - 2Y_Yield_t)
2.7 Currency Valuation Effects Component
Currency Valuation Effects constitute the seventh component, measuring the impact of US Dollar strength on small business competitiveness. A stronger dollar can benefit businesses with significant import components while disadvantaging exporters. The model employs Dollar Index volatility as a proxy for currency-related uncertainty that affects small business planning and operations.
The theoretical foundation draws from international trade theory and the work of Krugman (1987) on exchange rate effects on different business segments. Small businesses often lack hedging capabilities, making them more vulnerable to currency fluctuations:
Currency_Impact = -1 × DXY_Volatility_t
2.8 Regional Banking Health Component
The eighth and final component, Regional Banking Health, assesses the relative performance of regional banks compared to large financial institutions. Regional banks traditionally serve as primary lenders to small businesses, making their health a critical factor in small business credit availability and overall operating conditions.
This component draws from the literature on relationship banking as developed by Boot (2000), which demonstrates the importance of bank-borrower relationships, particularly for small enterprises. The calculation compares regional bank performance to large financial institutions:
Banking_Health = (Regional_Banks_Index_t / Large_Banks_Index_t) - 1
3. Statistical Methodology and Advanced Analytics
The model employs statistical techniques to ensure robustness and reliability. Z-score normalization is applied to each component using rolling 252-day windows, providing standardized measures that remain consistent across different time periods and market conditions. This approach follows the methodology established by Engle and Granger (1987) in their cointegration analysis framework.
3.1 Variance-Weighted Aggregation
The composite index calculation utilizes variance-weighted aggregation, where component weights are determined by the inverse of their historical variance. This approach, derived from modern portfolio theory, ensures that more stable components receive higher weights while reducing the impact of highly volatile factors. The mathematical formulation follows the principle that optimal weights are inversely proportional to variance, maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio of the composite indicator.
The weight for component i is calculated as:
w_i = (1/σᵢ²) / Σⱼ(1/σⱼ²)
where σᵢ² represents the variance of component i over the lookback period.
3.2 Higher-Order Moment Analysis
Higher-order moment analysis extends beyond traditional mean and variance calculations to include skewness and kurtosis measurements. Skewness provides insight into the asymmetry of the sentiment distribution, while kurtosis measures the tail behavior and potential for extreme events. These metrics offer valuable information about the underlying distribution characteristics and potential regime changes.
Skewness is calculated as:
Skewness = E / σ³
Kurtosis is calculated as:
Kurtosis = E / σ⁴ - 3
where μ represents the mean and σ represents the standard deviation of the distribution.
3.3 Regime-Switching Detection
The model incorporates regime-switching detection capabilities based on the Hamilton (1989) framework. This allows for identification of different economic regimes characterized by distinct statistical properties. The regime classification employs percentile-based thresholds:
- Regime 3 (Very High): Percentile rank > 80
- Regime 2 (High): Percentile rank 60-80
- Regime 1 (Moderate High): Percentile rank 50-60
- Regime 0 (Neutral): Percentile rank 40-50
- Regime -1 (Moderate Low): Percentile rank 30-40
- Regime -2 (Low): Percentile rank 20-30
- Regime -3 (Very Low): Percentile rank < 20
3.4 Information Theory Applications
The model incorporates information theory concepts, specifically Shannon entropy measurement, to assess the information content of the sentiment distribution. Shannon entropy, as developed by Shannon (1948), provides a measure of the uncertainty or information content in a probability distribution:
H(X) = -Σᵢ p(xᵢ) log₂ p(xᵢ)
Higher entropy values indicate greater unpredictability and information content in the sentiment series.
3.5 Long-Term Memory Analysis
The Hurst exponent calculation provides insight into the long-term memory characteristics of the sentiment series. Originally developed by Hurst (1951) for analyzing Nile River flow patterns, this measure has found extensive application in financial time series analysis. The Hurst exponent H is calculated using the rescaled range statistic:
H = log(R/S) / log(T)
where R/S represents the rescaled range and T represents the time period. Values of H > 0.5 indicate long-term positive autocorrelation (persistence), while H < 0.5 indicates mean-reverting behavior.
3.6 Structural Break Detection
The model employs Chow test approximation for structural break detection, based on the methodology developed by Chow (1960). This technique identifies potential structural changes in the underlying relationships by comparing the stability of regression parameters across different time periods:
Chow_Statistic = (RSS_restricted - RSS_unrestricted) / RSS_unrestricted × (n-2k)/k
where RSS represents residual sum of squares, n represents sample size, and k represents the number of parameters.
4. Implementation Parameters and Configuration
4.1 Language Selection Parameters
The model provides comprehensive multi-language support across five languages: English, German (Deutsch), Spanish (Español), French (Français), and Japanese (日本語). This feature enhances accessibility for international users and ensures cultural appropriateness in terminology usage. The language selection affects all internal displays, statistical classifications, and alert messages while maintaining consistency in underlying calculations.
4.2 Model Configuration Parameters
Calculation Method: Users can select from four aggregation methodologies:
- Equal-Weighted: All components receive identical weights
- Variance-Weighted: Components weighted inversely to their historical variance
- Principal Component: Weights determined through principal component analysis
- Dynamic: Adaptive weighting based on recent performance
Sector Specification: The model allows for sector-specific calibration:
- General: Broad-based small business assessment
- Retail: Emphasis on consumer demand and seasonal factors
- Manufacturing: Enhanced weighting of input costs and currency effects
- Services: Focus on labor market dynamics and consumer demand
- Construction: Emphasis on credit conditions and monetary policy
Lookback Period: Statistical analysis window ranging from 126 to 504 trading days, with 252 days (one business year) as the optimal default based on academic research.
Smoothing Period: Exponential moving average period from 1 to 21 days, with 5 days providing optimal noise reduction while preserving signal integrity.
4.3 Statistical Threshold Parameters
Upper Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 60-80 (default 70) representing the upper significance level for regime classification.
Lower Statistical Boundary: Configurable threshold between 20-40 (default 30) representing the lower significance level for regime classification.
Statistical Significance Level (α): Alpha level for statistical tests, configurable between 0.01-0.10 with 0.05 as the standard academic default.
4.4 Display and Visualization Parameters
Color Theme Selection: Eight professional color schemes optimized for different user preferences and accessibility requirements:
- Gold: Traditional financial industry colors
- EdgeTools: Professional blue-gray scheme
- Behavioral: Psychology-based color mapping
- Quant: Value-based quantitative color scheme
- Ocean: Blue-green maritime theme
- Fire: Warm red-orange theme
- Matrix: Green-black technology theme
- Arctic: Cool blue-white theme
Dark Mode Optimization: Automatic color adjustment for dark chart backgrounds, ensuring optimal readability across different viewing conditions.
Line Width Configuration: Main index line thickness adjustable from 1-5 pixels for optimal visibility.
Background Intensity: Transparency control for statistical regime backgrounds, adjustable from 90-99% for subtle visual enhancement without distraction.
4.5 Alert System Configuration
Alert Frequency Options: Three frequency settings to match different trading styles:
- Once Per Bar: Single alert per bar formation
- Once Per Bar Close: Alert only on confirmed bar close
- All: Continuous alerts for real-time monitoring
Statistical Extreme Alerts: Notifications when the index reaches 99% confidence levels (Z-score > 2.576 or < -2.576).
Regime Transition Alerts: Notifications when statistical boundaries are crossed, indicating potential regime changes.
5. Practical Application and Interpretation Guidelines
5.1 Index Interpretation Framework
The SBO-SAM index operates on a 0-100 scale with statistical normalization ensuring consistent interpretation across different time periods and market conditions. Values above 70 indicate statistically elevated small business conditions, suggesting favorable operating environment with potential for expansion and growth. Values below 30 indicate statistically reduced conditions, suggesting challenging operating environment with potential constraints on business activity.
The median reference line at 50 represents the long-term equilibrium level, with deviations providing insight into cyclical conditions relative to historical norms. The statistical confidence bands at 95% levels (approximately ±2 standard deviations) help identify when conditions reach statistically significant extremes.
5.2 Regime Classification System
The model employs a seven-level regime classification system based on percentile rankings:
Very High Regime (P80+): Exceptional small business conditions, typically associated with strong economic growth, easy credit availability, and favorable regulatory environment. Historical analysis suggests these periods often precede economic peaks and may warrant caution regarding sustainability.
High Regime (P60-80): Above-average conditions supporting business expansion and investment. These periods typically feature moderate growth, stable credit conditions, and positive consumer sentiment.
Moderate High Regime (P50-60): Slightly above-normal conditions with mixed signals. Careful monitoring of individual components helps identify emerging trends.
Neutral Regime (P40-50): Balanced conditions near long-term equilibrium. These periods often represent transition phases between different economic cycles.
Moderate Low Regime (P30-40): Slightly below-normal conditions with emerging headwinds. Early warning signals may appear in credit conditions or consumer demand.
Low Regime (P20-30): Below-average conditions suggesting challenging operating environment. Businesses may face constraints on growth and expansion.
Very Low Regime (P0-20): Severely constrained conditions, typically associated with economic recessions or financial crises. These periods often present opportunities for contrarian positioning.
5.3 Component Analysis and Diagnostics
Individual component analysis provides valuable diagnostic information about the underlying drivers of overall conditions. Divergences between components can signal emerging trends or structural changes in the economy.
Credit-Labor Divergence: When credit conditions improve while labor markets tighten, this may indicate early-stage economic acceleration with potential wage pressures.
Demand-Cost Divergence: Strong consumer demand coupled with rising input costs suggests inflationary pressures that may constrain small business margins.
Market-Fundamental Divergence: Disconnection between small-cap equity performance and fundamental conditions may indicate market inefficiencies or changing investor sentiment.
5.4 Temporal Analysis and Trend Identification
The model provides multiple temporal perspectives through momentum analysis, rate of change calculations, and trend decomposition. The 20-day momentum indicator helps identify short-term directional changes, while the Hodrick-Prescott filter approximation separates cyclical components from long-term trends.
Acceleration analysis through second-order momentum calculations provides early warning signals for potential trend reversals. Positive acceleration during declining conditions may indicate approaching inflection points, while negative acceleration during improving conditions may suggest momentum loss.
5.5 Statistical Confidence and Uncertainty Quantification
The model provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification through confidence intervals, volatility measures, and regime stability analysis. The 95% confidence bands help users understand the statistical significance of current readings and identify when conditions reach historically extreme levels.
Volatility analysis provides insight into the stability of current conditions, with higher volatility indicating greater uncertainty and potential for rapid changes. The regime stability measure, calculated as the inverse of volatility, helps assess the sustainability of current conditions.
6. Risk Management and Limitations
6.1 Model Limitations and Assumptions
The SBO-SAM model operates under several important assumptions that users must understand for proper interpretation. The model assumes that historical relationships between economic variables remain stable over time, though the regime-switching framework helps accommodate some structural changes. The 252-day lookback period provides reasonable statistical power while maintaining sensitivity to changing conditions, but may not capture longer-term structural shifts.
The model's reliance on publicly available economic data introduces inherent lags in some components, particularly those based on government statistics. Users should consider these timing differences when interpreting real-time conditions. Additionally, the model's focus on quantitative factors may not fully capture qualitative factors such as regulatory changes, geopolitical events, or technological disruptions that could significantly impact small business conditions.
The model's timeframe restrictions ensure statistical validity by preventing application to intraday periods where the underlying economic relationships may be distorted by market microstructure effects, trading noise, and temporal misalignment with the fundamental data sources. Users must utilize daily or longer timeframes to ensure the model's statistical foundations remain valid and interpretable.
6.2 Data Quality and Reliability Considerations
The model's accuracy depends heavily on the quality and availability of underlying economic data. Market-based components such as equity indices and bond prices provide real-time information but may be subject to short-term volatility unrelated to fundamental conditions. Economic statistics provide more stable fundamental information but may be subject to revisions and reporting delays.
Users should be aware that extreme market conditions may temporarily distort some components, particularly those based on financial market data. The model's statistical normalization helps mitigate these effects, but users should exercise additional caution during periods of market stress or unusual volatility.
6.3 Interpretation Caveats and Best Practices
The SBO-SAM model provides statistical analysis and should not be interpreted as investment advice or predictive forecasting. The model's output represents an assessment of current conditions based on historical relationships and may not accurately predict future outcomes. Users should combine the model's insights with other analytical tools and fundamental analysis for comprehensive decision-making.
The model's regime classifications are based on historical percentile rankings and may not fully capture the unique characteristics of current economic conditions. Users should consider the broader economic context and potential structural changes when interpreting regime classifications.
7. Academic References and Bibliography
Bernanke, B. S., & Blinder, A. S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. American Economic Review, 82(4), 901-921.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship Banking: What Do We Know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9(1), 7-25.
Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.
Dunkelberg, W. C., & Wade, H. (2023). NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Federal Reserve Board. (2024). Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.
Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Gordon, R. J. (1988). The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process. American Economic Review, 78(2), 276-283.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Hurst, H. E. (1951). Long-term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116(1), 770-799.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Krugman, P. (1987). Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In S. W. Arndt & J. D. Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies (pp. 49-70). MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mortensen, D. T., & Pissarides, C. A. (1994). Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 397-415.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of Financial Time Series (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
U.S. Small Business Administration. (2024). Small Business Profile. Office of Advocacy, Washington, D.C.
8. Technical Implementation Notes
The SBO-SAM model is implemented in Pine Script version 6 for the TradingView platform, ensuring compatibility with modern charting and analysis tools. The implementation follows best practices for financial indicator development, including proper error handling, data validation, and performance optimization.
The model includes comprehensive timeframe validation to ensure statistical accuracy and reliability. The indicator operates exclusively on daily (1D) timeframes or higher, including weekly (1W), monthly (1M), and longer periods. This restriction ensures that the statistical analysis maintains appropriate temporal resolution for the underlying economic data sources, which are primarily reported on daily or longer intervals.
When users attempt to apply the model to intraday timeframes (such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, or 12-hour charts), the system displays a comprehensive error message in the user's selected language and prevents execution. This safeguard protects users from potentially misleading results that could occur when applying daily-based economic analysis to shorter timeframes where the underlying data relationships may not hold.
The model's statistical calculations are performed using vectorized operations where possible to ensure computational efficiency. The multi-language support system employs Unicode character encoding to ensure proper display of international characters across different platforms and devices.
The alert system utilizes TradingView's native alert functionality, providing users with flexible notification options including email, SMS, and webhook integrations. The alert messages include comprehensive statistical information to support informed decision-making.
The model's visualization system employs professional color schemes designed for optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and display devices. The system includes dynamic color transitions based on momentum and volatility, professional glow effects for enhanced line visibility, and transparency controls that allow users to customize the visual intensity to match their preferences and analytical requirements. The clean confidence band implementation provides clear statistical boundaries without visual distractions, maintaining focus on the analytical content.
