Anchored Geometric Brownian Motion Projections w/EVAnchored GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) Projections + EV & Confidence Bands
Version: Pine Script v6
Overlay: Yes
Author:
Published On:
Overview
The Anchored GBM Projections + EV & Confidence Bands indicator leverages the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to project future price movements based on historical data. By simulating multiple potential future price paths, it provides traders with insights into possible price trajectories, their expected values, and confidence intervals. Additionally, it offers a "Mean of EV" (EV of EV) line, representing the running average of expected values across the projection period.
Key Features
Anchor Time Setup:
Define a specific point in time from which the projections commence.
By default, it uses the current bar's timestamp but can be customized.
Projection Parameters:
Projection Candles (Bars): Determines the number of future bars (time periods) to project.
Number of Simulations: Specifies how many GBM paths to simulate, ensuring statistical relevance via the Central Limit Theorem (CLT).
Display Toggles:
Simulation Lines: Visual representation of individual GBM simulation paths.
Expected Value (EV) Line: The average price across all simulations at each projection bar.
Upper & Lower Confidence Bands: 95% confidence intervals indicating potential price boundaries.
EV of EV Line: Running average of EV values, providing a smoothed central tendency across the projection period. Additionally, this line often acts as an indicator of trend direction.
Visualization:
Clear and distinguishable lines with customizable colors and styles.
Overlayed on the price chart for direct comparison with actual price movements.
Mathematical Foundation
Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM):
Definition: GBM is a continuous-time stochastic process used to model stock prices. It assumes that the logarithm of the stock price follows a Brownian motion with drift.
Equation:
S(t)=S0⋅e(μ−12σ2)t+σW(t)
S(t)=S0⋅e(μ−21σ2)t+σW(t) Where:
S(t)S(t) = Stock price at time tt
S0S0 = Initial stock price
μμ = Drift coefficient (average return)
σσ = Volatility coefficient (standard deviation of returns)
W(t)W(t) = Wiener process (standard Brownian motion)
Drift (μμ) and Volatility (σσ):
Drift (μμ) represents the expected return of the stock.
Volatility (σσ) measures the stock's price fluctuation intensity.
Central Limit Theorem (CLT):
Principle: With a sufficiently large number of independent simulations, the distribution of the sample mean (EV) approaches a normal distribution, regardless of the underlying distribution.
Application: Ensures that the EV and confidence bands are statistically reliable.
Expected Value (EV) and Confidence Bands:
EV: The mean price across all simulations at each projection bar.
Confidence Bands: Range within which the actual price is expected to lie with a specified probability (e.g., 95%).
EV of EV (Mean of Sample Means):
Definition: Represents the running average of EV values across the projection period, offering a smoothed central tendency.
Methodology
Anchor Time Setup:
The indicator starts projecting from a user-defined Anchor Time. If not customized, it defaults to the current bar's timestamp.
Purpose: Allows users to analyze projections from a specific historical point or the latest market data.
Calculating Drift and Volatility:
Returns Calculation: Computes the logarithmic returns from the Anchor Time to the current bar.
returns=ln(StSt−1)
returns=ln(St−1St)
Drift (μμ): Calculated as the simple moving average (SMA) of returns over the period since the Anchor Time.
Volatility (σσ): Determined using the standard deviation (stdev) of returns over the same period.
Simulation Generation:
Number of Simulations: The user defines how many GBM paths to simulate (e.g., 30).
Projection Candles: Determines the number of future bars to project (e.g., 12).
Process:
For each simulation:
Start from the current close price.
For each projection bar:
Generate a random number zz from a standard normal distribution.
Calculate the next price using the GBM formula:
St+1=St⋅e(μ−12σ2)+σz
St+1=St⋅e(μ−21σ2)+σz
Store the projected price in an array.
Expected Value (EV) and Confidence Bands Calculation:
EV Path: At each projection bar, compute the mean of all simulated prices.
Variance and Standard Deviation: Calculate the variance and standard deviation of simulated prices to determine the confidence intervals.
Confidence Bands: Using the standard normal z-score (1.96 for 95% confidence), establish upper and lower bounds:
Upper Band=EV+z⋅σEV
Upper Band=EV+z⋅σEV
Lower Band=EV−z⋅σEV
Lower Band=EV−z⋅σEV
EV of EV (Running Average of EV Values):
Calculation: For each projection bar, compute the average of all EV values up to that bar.
EV of EV =1j+1∑k=0jEV
EV of EV =j+11k=0∑jEV
Visualization: Plotted as a dynamic line reflecting the evolving average EV across the projection period.
Visualization Elements
Simulation Lines:
Appearance: Semi-transparent blue lines representing individual GBM simulation paths.
Purpose: Illustrate a range of possible future price trajectories based on current drift and volatility.
Expected Value (EV) Line:
Appearance: Solid orange line.
Purpose: Shows the average projected price at each future bar across all simulations.
Confidence Bands:
Upper Band: Dashed green line indicating the upper 95% confidence boundary.
Lower Band: Dashed red line indicating the lower 95% confidence boundary.
Purpose: Highlight the range within which the price is statistically expected to remain with 95% confidence.
EV of EV Line:
Appearance: Dashed purple line.
Purpose: Displays the running average of EV values, providing a smoothed trend of the central tendency across the projection period. As the mean of sample means it approximates the population mean (i.e. the trend since the anchor point.)
Current Price:
Appearance: Semi-transparent white line.
Purpose: Serves as a reference point for comparing actual price movements against projected paths.
Usage Instructions
Configuring User Inputs:
Anchor Time:
Set to a specific timestamp to start projections from a historical point or leave it as default to use the current bar's time.
Projection Candles (Bars):
Define the number of future bars to project (e.g., 12). Adjust based on your trading timeframe and analysis needs.
Number of Simulations:
Specify the number of GBM paths to simulate (e.g., 30). Higher numbers yield more accurate EV and confidence bands but may impact performance.
Display Toggles:
Show Simulation Lines: Toggle to display or hide individual GBM simulation paths.
Show Expected Value Line: Toggle to display or hide the EV path.
Show Upper Confidence Band: Toggle to display or hide the upper confidence boundary.
Show Lower Confidence Band: Toggle to display or hide the lower confidence boundary.
Show EV of EV Line: Toggle to display or hide the running average of EV values.
Managing TradingView's Object Limits:
Understanding Limits:
TradingView imposes a limit on the number of graphical objects (e.g., lines) that can be rendered. High values for projection candles and simulations can quickly consume these limits. TradingView appears to only allow a total of 55 candles to be projected, so if you want to see two complete lines, you would have to set the projection length to 27: since 27 * 2 = 54 and 54 < 55.
Optimizing Performance:
Use Toggles: Enable only the necessary visual elements. For instance, disable simulation lines and confidence bands when focusing on the EV and EV of EV lines. You can also use the maximum projection length of 55 with the lower limit confidence band as the only line, visualizing a long horizon for your risk.
Adjust Parameters: Lower the number of projection candles or simulations to stay within object limits without compromising essential insights.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Simulation Lines (Blue):
Represent individual potential future price paths based on GBM. A wider spread indicates higher volatility.
Expected Value (EV) Line (Goldenrod):
Shows the mean projected price at each future bar, providing a central trend.
Confidence Bands (Green & Red):
Indicate the statistical range (95% confidence) within which the price is expected to remain.
EV of EV Line (Dotted Line - Goldenrod):
Reflects the running average of EV values, offering a smoothed perspective of expected price trends over the projection period.
Current Price (White):
Serves as a benchmark for assessing how actual prices compare to projected paths.
Practical Applications
Risk Management:
Confidence Bands: Help in identifying potential support and resistance levels based on statistical confidence intervals.
EV Path: Assists in setting realistic target prices and stop-loss levels aligned with projected expectations.
Trend Analysis:
EV of EV Line: Offers a smoothed trendline, aiding in identifying overarching market directions amidst price volatility. Indicative of the population mean/overall trend of the data since your anchor point.
Scenario Planning:
Simulation Lines: Enable traders to visualize multiple potential outcomes, fostering better decision-making under uncertainty.
Performance Evaluation:
Comparing Actual vs. Projected Prices: Assess how actual price movements align with projected scenarios, refining trading strategies over time.
Mathematical and Statistical Insights
Simulation Integrity:
Independence: Each simulation path is generated independently, ensuring unbiased and diverse projections.
Randomness: Utilizes a Gaussian random number generator to introduce variability in diffusion terms, mimicking real market randomness.
Statistical Reliability:
Central Limit Theorem (CLT): By simulating a sufficient number of paths (e.g., 30), the sample mean (EV) converges to the population mean, ensuring reliable EV and confidence band calculations.
Variance Calculation: Accurate computation of variance from simulation data ensures precise confidence intervals.
Dynamic Projections:
Running Average (EV of EV): Provides a cumulative perspective, allowing traders to observe how the average expectation evolves as the projection progresses.
Customization and Enhancements
Adjustable Parameters:
Tailor the projection length and simulation count to match your trading style and analysis depth.
Visual Customization:
Modify line colors, styles, and transparency to enhance clarity and fit chart aesthetics.
Extended Statistical Metrics:
Future iterations can incorporate additional metrics like median projections, skewness, or alternative confidence intervals.
Dynamic Recalculation:
Implement logic to automatically update projections as new data becomes available, ensuring real-time relevance.
Performance Considerations
Object Count Management:
High simulation counts and extended projection periods can lead to a significant number of graphical objects, potentially slowing down chart performance.
Solution: Utilize display toggles effectively and optimize projection parameters to balance detail with performance.
Computational Efficiency:
The script employs efficient array handling and conditional plotting to minimize unnecessary computations and object creation.
Conclusion
The Anchored GBM Projections + EV & Confidence Bands indicator is a robust tool for traders seeking to forecast potential future price movements using statistical models. By integrating Geometric Brownian Motion simulations with expected value calculations and confidence intervals, it offers a comprehensive view of possible market scenarios. The addition of the "EV of EV" line further enhances analytical depth by providing a running average of expected values, aiding in trend identification and strategic decision-making.
Hope it helps!
Statistics
Engulfing Candlestick StrategyEver wondered whether the Bullish or Bearish Engulfing pattern works or has statistical significance? This script is for you. It works across all markets and timeframes.
The Engulfing Candlestick Pattern is a widely used technical analysis pattern that traders use to predict potential price reversals. It consists of two candles: a small candle followed by a larger one that "engulfs" the previous candle. This pattern is considered bullish when it occurs in a downtrend (bullish engulfing) and bearish when it occurs in an uptrend (bearish engulfing).
Statistical Significance of the Engulfing Pattern:
While many traders rely on candlestick patterns for making decisions, research on the statistical significance of these patterns has produced mixed results. A study by Dimitrios K. Koutoupis and K. M. Koutoupis (2014), titled "Testing the Effectiveness of Candlestick Chart Patterns in Forex Markets," indicates that candlestick patterns, including the engulfing pattern, can provide some predictive power, but their success largely depends on the market conditions and timeframe used. The researchers concluded that while some candlestick patterns can be useful, traders must combine them with other indicators or market knowledge to improve their predictive accuracy.
Another study by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," explores the profitability of technical indicators, including candlestick patterns, and finds that simple trading rules, such as those based on moving averages or candlestick patterns, can occasionally outperform a random walk in certain market conditions.
However, Jorion (1997), in his work "The Risk of Speculation: The Case of Technical Analysis," warns that the reliability of candlestick patterns, including the engulfing patterns, can vary significantly across different markets and periods. Therefore, it's important to use these patterns as part of a broader trading strategy that includes other risk management techniques and technical indicators.
Application Across Markets:
This script applies to all markets (e.g., stocks, commodities, forex) and timeframes, making it a versatile tool for traders seeking to explore the statistical effectiveness of the bullish and bearish engulfing patterns in their own trading.
Conclusion:
This script allows you to backtest and visualize the effectiveness of the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing patterns across any market and timeframe. While the statistical significance of these patterns may vary, the script provides a clear framework for evaluating their performance in real-time trading conditions. Always remember to combine such patterns with other risk management strategies and indicators to enhance their predictive power.
Daytrading ES Wick Length StrategyThis Pine Script strategy calculates the combined length of upper and lower wicks of candlesticks and uses a customizable moving average (MA) to identify potential long entry points. The strategy compares the total wick length to the MA with an added offset. If the wick length exceeds the offset-adjusted MA, the strategy enters a long position. The position is automatically closed after a user-defined holding period.
Key Features:
1. Calculates the sum of upper and lower wicks for each candlestick.
2. Offers four types of moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA) for analysis.
3. Allows the user to set a customizable MA length and an offset to shift the MA.
4. Automatically exits positions after a specified number of bars.
5. Visualizes the wick length as a histogram and the offset-adjusted MA as a line.
References:
• Candlestick wick analysis: Nison, S. (1991). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
• Moving averages: Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). “Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns”. Journal of Finance.
This strategy is suitable for identifying candlesticks with significant volatility and long wicks, which can indicate potential trend reversals or continuations.
Daily % Change MatrixThe "Daily % Change Matrix" is a powerful tool designed to visualize daily percentage changes in stock prices. This indicator helps traders analyze trends and volatility over time, enabling data-driven decisions.
Features
Change Calculation Options:
Choose between two methods:
Previous Close to Current Close: Calculates the percent change from the previous day's close to the current day's close.
Open to Close: Calculates the percent change from the current day's open to its close.
Customizable Table Display:
Size Options: Choose between Small, Normal, and Large.
Positioning: Place the table in any corner of the chart (Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, or Bottom Right).
Color Coding:
Green: Positive changes.
Red: Negative changes.
Grey: No data or negligible changes.
Table Details
Rows: Days of the month (1-31).
Columns: The last 13 months of data.
Dynamic Header: Automatically updates based on the selected calculation method.
Usage
Change your chart timeframe to Daily (D).
Configure the table's size and position via inputs.
Select the preferred calculation method.
Ideal For
Swing Traders: Identify monthly performance trends.
Analysts: Study long-term patterns across months.
Portfolio Managers: Gain insights into market behavior during specific periods.
Notes
Ensure the timeframe is set to Daily.
Use the table options to adjust for personal preference and chart space.
Contact
For any issues or suggestions, reach out to me.
Up Gap Strategy with DelayThis strategy, titled “Up Gap Strategy with Delay,” is based on identifying up gaps in the price action of an asset. A gap is defined as the percentage difference between the current bar’s open price and the previous bar’s close price. The strategy triggers a long position if the gap exceeds a user-defined threshold and includes a delay period before entering the position. After entering, the position is held for a set number of periods before being closed.
Key Features:
1. Gap Threshold: The strategy defines an up gap when the gap size exceeds a specified threshold (in percentage terms). The gap threshold is an input parameter that allows customization based on the user’s preference.
2. Delay Period: After the gap occurs, the strategy waits for a delay period before initiating a long position. This delay can help mitigate any short-term volatility that might occur immediately after the gap.
3. Holding Period: Once the position is entered, it is held for a user-defined number of periods (holdingPeriods). This is to capture the potential post-gap trend continuation, as gaps often indicate strong directional momentum.
4. Gap Plotting: The strategy visually plots up gaps on the chart by placing a green label beneath the bar where the gap condition is met. Additionally, the background color turns green to highlight up-gap occurrences.
5. Exit Condition: The position is exited after the defined holding period. The strategy ensures that the position is closed after this time, regardless of whether the price is in profit or loss.
Scientific Background:
The gap theory has been widely studied in financial literature and is based on the premise that gaps in price often represent areas of significant support or resistance. According to research by Kaufman (2002), gaps in price action can be indicators of future price direction, particularly when they occur after a period of consolidation or a trend reversal. Moreover, Gaps and their Implications in Technical Analysis (Murphy, 1999) highlights that gaps can reflect imbalances between supply and demand, leading to high momentum and potential price continuation or reversal.
In trading strategies, utilizing gaps with specific conditions, such as delay and holding periods, can enhance the ability to capture significant price moves. The strategy’s delay period helps avoid potential market noise immediately after the gap, while the holding period seeks to capitalize on the price continuation that often follows gap formation.
This methodology aligns with momentum-based strategies, which rely on the persistence of trends in financial markets. Several studies, including Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), have documented the existence of momentum effects in stock prices, where past price movements can be predictive of future returns.
Conclusion:
This strategy incorporates gap detection and momentum principles, supported by empirical research in technical analysis, to attempt to capitalize on price movements following significant gaps. By waiting for a delay period and holding the position for a specified time, it aims to mitigate the risk associated with early volatility while maximizing the potential for sustained price moves.
Enhanced Effort vs Result Analysis V.2How to Use in Trading
A. Confirm Breakouts
Check if the Effort-Result Ratio or Z-Score spikes above the Upper Band or Z > +2:
Suggests a strong, efficient price move.
Supports breakout continuation.
B. Identify Reversal or Exhaustion
Look for Effort-Result Ratio or Z-Score dropping below the Lower Band or Z < -2:
Indicates high effort but low price movement (inefficiency).
Often signals potential trend reversal or consolidation.
C. Assess Efficiency of Trends
Use Relative Efficiency Index (REI):
REI near 1 during a trend → Confirms strength (efficient movement).
REI near 0 → Weak or inefficient movement, likely signaling exhaustion.
D. Evaluate Volume-Price Relationship
Monitor the Volume-Price Correlation:
Positive correlation (+1): Confirms price is driven by volume.
Negative correlation (-1): Indicates divergence; price moves independently of volume (potential warning signal).
3. Example Scenarios
Scenario 1: Breakout Confirmation
Effort-Result Ratio spikes above the Upper Band.
Z-Score exceeds +2.
REI approaches 1.
Volume-Price Correlation is positive (near +1).
Action: Strong breakout confirmation → Trend continuation likely.
Scenario 2: Reversal or Exhaustion
Effort-Result Ratio drops below the Lower Band.
Z-Score is below -2.
REI approaches 0.
Volume-Price Correlation weakens or turns negative.
Action: Signals trend exhaustion → Watch for reversal or consolidation.
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Market
Effort-Result Ratio stays within the Bollinger Bands.
Z-Score remains between -1 and +1.
REI fluctuates around 0.5 (neutral efficiency).
Volume-Price Correlation hovers near 0.
Action: Normal conditions → Look for breakout signals before acting.
*IMPORTANT*
There is a problem with the overlay ... How to fix some of it
The Standard Deviation bands dont work while the other variable activated so Id suggest deselecting them. The fix for this is to make sure you have the background selected and by doing this it will highlight on the chart ( you may need to increase the opacity ) when the bands ( Second standard deviation) are touched.
- Also you can use them all at once if you can but you do not need to
Statistical Trend Analysis (Scatterplot) [BigBeluga]Statistical Trend Analysis (Scatterplot) provides a unique perspective on market dynamics by combining the statistical concept of z-scores with scatterplot visualization to assess price momentum and potential trend shifts.
🧿 What is Z-Score?
Definition: A z-score is a statistical measure that quantifies how far a data point is from the mean, expressed in terms of standard deviations.
In this Indicator:
A high positive z-score indicates the price is significantly above the average.
A low negative z-score indicates the price is significantly below the average.
The indicator also calculates the rate of change of the z-score, helping identify momentum shifts in the market.
🧿 Key Features:
Scatterplot Visualization:
Displays data points of z-score and its change across four quadrants.
Quadrants help interpret market conditions:
Upper Right (Strong Bullish Momentum): Most data points here signal an ongoing uptrend.
Upper Left (Weakening Momentum): Data points here may indicate a potential market shift or ranging market.
Lower Left (Strong Bearish Momentum): Indicates a dominant downtrend.
Lower Right (Trend Shift to Bullish/Ranging): Suggests weakening bearish momentum or an emerging uptrend.
Color-Coded Candles:
Candles are dynamically colored based on the z-score, providing a visual cue about the price's deviation from the mean.
Z-Score Time Series:
A line plot of z-scores over time shows price deviation trends.
A gray histogram displays the rate of change of the z-score, highlighting momentum shifts.
🧿 Usage:
Use the scatterplot and quadrant gauges to understand the current market momentum and potential shifts.
Monitor the z-score line plot to identify overbought/oversold conditions.
Utilize the gray histogram to detect momentum reversals and trend strength.
This tool is ideal for traders who rely on statistical insights to confirm trends, detect potential reversals, and assess market momentum visually and quantitatively.
ROE BandROE Band shows the return on net profit from shareholders' equity and the formula for decomposition
ROE = ROA x CSL x CEL
ROE Band consists of 5 parts:
1. ROE (TTM) is the 12-month ROE calculation in "green"
2. Return on Equity (ROE) is the current quarterly net profit / the average of the beginning and ending periods of shareholders' equity in "yellow"
3. Return on Assets (ROA) is the current quarterly NOPAT (net profit before tax) / the average of the beginning and ending periods of total assets in "blue"
4. Capital structure leverage (CSL) is a financial measure that compares a company's debt to its total capital. It is calculated by taking the average of the beginning and ending periods of total assets / the average of the beginning and ending periods of shareholders' equity. The higher the CSL, the more deb, in. "red"
5. Common earnings leverage (CEL) is the proportion of net profit and NOPAT (net profit before tax), where a lower CEL means more tax, in "orange"
The "😱" emoji represents the value if it increases by more than or decreases by less than 20%, e.g.
- ROE(TTM), ROE, ROA, CEL is decreasing
- CSL is increasing
The "🔥" emoji represents the value if it increases by more than or decreases, e.g.
- ROE(TTM), ROE, ROA, CEL is increasing
- CSL is decreasing
NSE & BSE Option Chain - Auto Option Data InputDefinition
An options chain is a list of all available option contracts for a specific security, organized by expiration date and strike price.
What Is an Options Chain ?
Understanding how to read and analyze options chains is crucial for investors venturing into options trading. These display all available option contracts for a particular security, typically in a table format that organizes contracts by expiration date and strike price. The tool provides a wealth of information at a glance, including present prices, trading volume, and implied volatility (IV) for both call and put options.
While the long list of prices and other information can look at first to be overly complicated, learning to navigate an options chain will significantly improve your ability to trade in these derivatives and identify prospects in the market. As options continue to gain popularity among retail investors, mastering the intricacies of the options chain has become an essential skill for those looking to expand their trading strategies beyond traditional stock investments.
Key Takeaways
An options chain displays all available option contracts for a security, organized by expiration date and strike price.
Options chains typically show each contract's bid price, ask price, volume, open interest, and implied volatility (IV).
Options chains can be used to identify trading prospects, such as mispriced options or favorable risk-reward scenarios.
Understanding Options Chains
Option chains list all available option contracts for a particular underlying security. For traders, they provide a snapshot of crucial information about each contract, including strike prices, expiration dates, and market prices.
Typically organized in a table, options chains have separate sections for call and put options. The rows represent different strike prices, while the columns show various data points for each contract. This lets traders quickly compare options with different characteristics to make informed decisions.
Decoding Options Chains
The columns of an option chain, as seen in the example chart above, include the following:
Strike price: The price the option holder can buy (for calls) or sell (for puts) the underlying asset.
Expiration date: The last day the option contract is valid.
1
Bid price: The highest price a buyer is willing to pay for the option.
Ask price: The lowest price a seller is willing to accept for the option.
Last price: The most recent trading price for the option.
Percentage change: The net change column reflects the direction (up, down, or flat) for the underlying asset, as well as the amount of the price shift.
Volume: The number of contracts traded during the current session.
2
Open interest: The total of outstanding contracts.
Mastering the art of reading options chains is essential for any serious options trader. It's where market sentiment, price inefficiencies, and trading prospects all come together.
In options trading, information is power. A well-analyzed option chain can reveal market inefficiencies that savvy traders can exploit. For example, comparing the bid-ask spread across different strike prices can help identify more liquid options, while analyzing open interest can help you understand market sentiment.
A skilled user can quickly decipher an options chain for what it says about price moves and where there are high and low levels of liquidity. For the best trades, this is critical information. For those not quite there yet, let's break down other parts of the options chain tables into manageable parts:
Calls vs. puts: Option chains typically separate call options (the right to buy) from put options (the right to sell). This division allows traders to focus straightaway on bullish or bearish strategies.
Filters and customization: Most trading platforms enable you to customize your options chain view. You can quickly filter by expiration date, strike price range, or specific Greek values to focus on the most relevant contracts.
The Bottom Line
The options chain is indispensable for options traders, providing a comprehensive view of all available contracts for a given security. By learning to read and analyze options chains, you can gain greater clarity about market sentiment, identify trading prospects, and make more informed decisions for your options strategies.
While it takes a bit of time to become proficient in interpreting all the data presented, mastering the options chain is crucial for those looking to leverage the full potential of options trading in their investment approaches.
Fully Auto Option Data Input for All Currently Available NSE Indices and Stock & BSE Sensex Indices
RSI Trend [MacroGlide]The RSI Trend indicator is a versatile and intuitive tool designed for traders who want to enhance their market analysis with visual clarity. By combining Stochastic RSI with moving averages, this indicator offers a dynamic view of market momentum and trends. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this tool simplifies identifying key market conditions and trading opportunities.
Key Features:
• Stochastic RSI-Based Calculations: Incorporates Stochastic RSI to provide a nuanced view of overbought and oversold conditions, enhancing standard RSI analysis.
• Dynamic Moving Averages: Includes two customizable moving averages (MA1 and MA2) based on smoothed Stochastic RSI, offering flexibility to align with your trading strategy.
• Candle Color Coding: Automatically colors candles on the chart:
• Blue: When the faster moving average (MA2) is above the slower one (MA1), signaling bullish momentum.
• Orange: When the faster moving average is below the slower one, indicating bearish momentum.
• Integrated Scaling: The indicator dynamically adjusts with the chart's scale, ensuring seamless visualization regardless of zoom level.
How to Use:
• Add the Indicator: Apply the indicator to your chart from the TradingView library.
• Interpret Candle Colors: Use the color-coded candles to quickly identify bullish (blue) and bearish (orange) phases.
• Customize to Suit Your Needs: Adjust the lengths of the moving averages and the Stochastic RSI parameters to better fit your trading style and timeframe.
• Combine with Other Tools: Pair this indicator with trendlines, volume analysis, or support and resistance levels for a comprehensive trading approach.
Methodology:
The indicator utilizes Stochastic RSI, a derivative of the standard RSI, to measure momentum more precisely. By applying smoothing and calculating moving averages, the tool identifies shifts in market trends. These trends are visually represented through candle color changes, making it easy to spot transitions between bullish and bearish phases at a glance.
Originality and Usefulness:
What sets this indicator apart is its seamless integration of Stochastic RSI and moving averages with real-time candle coloring. The result is a visually intuitive tool that adapts dynamically to chart scaling, offering clarity without clutter.
Charts:
When applied, the indicator plots two moving averages alongside color-coded candles. The combination of visual cues and trend logic helps traders easily interpret market momentum and make informed decisions.
Enjoy the game!
Smooth RSI [MarktQuant]This indicator combines elements of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Rate of Change (RoC) to provide a smoother and potentially more insightful view of market momentum and price movement. The Smooth RSI calculates RSI values across four price points (high, open, low, close) to average them, offering a less volatile RSI signal. Additionally, it incorporates a Rate of Change for trend confirmation, enhancing the decision-making process for trade entries and exits.
Features:
Multi-RSI Calculation: RSI is computed for high, open, low, and close prices, then averaged to reduce noise.
Trend Confirmation with RoC: Uses the Rate of Change to validate the RSI signals, coloring bars based on the trend direction.
Visual Signals:
Bar colors change based on combined RSI and RoC signals.
Green for bullish signals (RSI above 50 and positive RoC).
Red for bearish signals (RSI below 50 and negative RoC).
Horizontal lines at 30, 50, and 70 to denote overbought, neutral, and oversold conditions.
Customizable Display:
Option to show/hide RSI plot or RoC plot for cleaner charts.
Candle plot overlay option to visualize current price action alongside the indicator.
Inputs:
RSI Length: Default 28. Adjusts the lookback period for RSI calculation.
RoC Length: Default 28. Sets the period for the Rate of Change calculation.
Plot Settings:
Show RSI - Toggle RSI plot visibility.
Show RoC - Toggle RoC plot visibility.
Usage:
Long signals are indicated when the average RSI is above 50 and the RoC is positive.
Short signals are suggested when the average RSI falls below 50 with a negative RoC.
The color coding helps visually confirm trends at a glance.
Notes:
This indicator is best used in conjunction with other analysis methods to confirm signals.
Adjust the length parameters based on your trading timeframe for optimal results.
Disclaimer:
This indicator does not guarantee trading success; use it as part of a comprehensive trading strategy. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
TradeShields Strategy Builder🛡 WHAT IS TRADESHIELDS?
This no-code strategy builder is designed for traders on TradingView, offering an intuitive platform to create, backtest, and automate trading strategies. While identifying signals is often straightforward, the real challenge in trading lies in managing risk and knowing when not to trade. It equips users with advanced tools to address this challenge, promoting disciplined decision-making and structured trading practices.
This is not just a collection of indicators but a comprehensive toolkit that helps identify high-quality opportunities while placing risk management at the core of every strategy. By integrating customizable filters, robust controls, and automation capabilities, it empowers traders to align their strategies with their unique objectives and risk tolerance.
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🛡 THE GOAL: SHIELD YOUR STRATEGY
The mission is simple: to shield your strategy from bad trades . Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, the hardest part of trading isn’t finding signals—it’s avoiding trades that can harm your account. This framework prioritizes quality over quantity , helping filter out suboptimal setups and encouraging disciplined execution.
With tools to manage risk, avoid overtrading, and adapt to changing market conditions, it protects your strategy against impulsive decisions and market volatility.
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🛡 HOW TO USE IT
1. Apply Higher Timeframe Filters
Begin by analyzing broader market trends using tools like the 200 EMA, Ichimoku Cloud, or Supertrend on higher timeframes (e.g., daily or 4-hour charts).
- Example: Ensure the price is above the 200 EMA on the daily chart for long trades or below it for short trades.
2. Identify the Appropriate Entry Signal
Choose an entry signal that aligns with your model and the asset you're trading. Options include:
Supertrend changes for trend reversals.
Bollinger Band touches for mean-reversion trades.
RSI strength/weakness for overbought or oversold conditions.
Breakouts of key levels (e.g., daily or weekly highs/lows) for momentum trades.
MACD and TSI flips.
3. Determine Take-Profit and Stop-Loss Levels
Set clear exit strategies to protect your capital and lock in profits:
Use single, dual, or triple take-profit levels based on percentages or price levels.
Choose a stop-loss type, such as fixed percentage, ATR-based, or trailing stops.
Optionally, set breakeven adjustments after hitting your first take-profit target.
4. Apply Risk Management Filters
Incorporate risk controls to ensure disciplined execution:
Limit the number of trades per day, week, or month to avoid overtrading.
Use time-based filters to trade during specific sessions or custom windows.
Avoid trading around high-impact news events with region-specific filters.
5. Automate and Execute
Leverage the advanced automation features to streamline execution. Alerts are tailored specifically for each supported platform, ensuring seamless integration with tools like PineConnector, 3Commas, Zapier, and more.
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🛡 CORE FOCUS: RISK MANAGEMENT, AUTOMATION, AND DISCIPLINED TRADING
This builder emphasizes quality over quantity, encouraging traders to approach markets with structure and control. Its innovative tools for risk management and automation help optimize performance while reducing effort, fostering consistency and long-term success.
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🛡 KEY FEATURES
General Settings
Theme Customization : Light and dark themes for a tailored interface.
Timezone Adjustment : Align session times and news schedules with your local timezone.
Position Sizing : Define lot sizes to manage risk effectively.
Directional Control : Choose between long-only, short-only, or both directions for trading.
Time Filters
Day-of-Week Selection : Enable or disable trading on specific days.
Session-Based Trading : Restrict trades to major market sessions (Asia, London, New York) or custom windows.
Custom Time Windows : Precisely control the timeframes for trade execution.
Risk Management Tools
Trade Limits : Maximum trades per day, week, or month to avoid overtrading.
Automatic Trade Closures : End-of-session, end-of-day, or end-of-week options.
Duration-Based Filters : Close trades if take-profit isn’t reached within a set timeframe or if they remain unprofitable beyond a specific duration.
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Options : Fixed percentage or ATR-based stop-losses, single/dual/triple take-profit levels, and breakeven stop adjustments.
Economic News Filters
Region-Specific Filters : Exclude trades around major news events in regions like the USA, UK, Europe, Asia, or Oceania.
News Avoidance Windows : Pause trades before and after high-impact events or automatically close trades ahead of scheduled news releases.
Higher Timeframe Filters
Multi-Timeframe Tools : Leverage EMAs, Supertrend, or Ichimoku Cloud on higher timeframes (Daily, 4-hour, etc.) for trend alignment.
Chart Timeframe Filters
Precision Filtering : Apply EMA or ADX-based conditions to refine trade setups on current chart timeframes.
Entry Signals
Customizable Options : Choose from signals like Supertrend, Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, Ichimoku Cloud, or EMA pullbacks.
Indicator Parameter Overrides : Fine-tune default settings for specific signals.
Exit Settings
Flexible Take-Profit Targets : Single, dual, or triple targets. Exit at significant levels like daily/weekly highs or lows.
Stop-Loss Variability : Fixed, ATR-based, or trailing stop-loss options.
Alerts and Automation
Third-Party Integrations : Seamlessly connect with platforms like PineConnector, 3Commas, Zapier, and Capitalise.ai.
Precision-Formatted Alerts : Alerts are tailored specifically for each platform, ensuring seamless execution. For example:
- PineConnector alerts include risk-per-trade parameters.
- 3Commas alerts contain bot-specific configurations.
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🛡 PUBLISHED CHART SETTINGS: 15m COMEX:GC1!
Time Filters : Trades are enabled from Tuesday to Friday, as Mondays often lack sufficient data coming off the weekend, and weekends are excluded due to market closures. Custom time sessions are turned off by default, allowing trades throughout the day.
Risk Filters : Risk is tightly controlled by limiting trades to a maximum of 2 per day and enabling a mechanism to close trades if they remain open too long and are unprofitable. Weekly trade closures ensure that no positions are carried over unnecessarily.
Economic News Filters : By default, trades are allowed during economic news periods, giving traders flexibility to decide how to handle volatility manually. It is recommended to enable these filters if you are creating strategies on lower timeframes.
Higher Timeframe Filters : The setup incorporates confluence from higher timeframe indicators. For example, the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe is used to establish trend direction, while the Ichimoku cloud on the 30-minute timeframe adds additional confirmation.
Entry Signals : The strategy triggers trades based on changes in the Supertrend indicator.
Exit Settings : Trades are configured to take partial profits at three levels (1%, 2%, and 3%) and use a fixed stop loss of 2%. Stops are moved to breakeven after reaching the first take profit level.
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🛡 WHY CHOOSE THIS STRATEGY BUILDER?
This tool transforms trading from reactive to proactive, focusing on risk management and automation as the foundation of every strategy. By helping users avoid unnecessary trades, implement robust controls, and automate execution, it fosters disciplined trading.
NexTrade
Overview of NexTrade: The Future of Crypto Trading
Introduction
NexTrade is a cutting-edge algorithmic trading platform designed to optimize cryptocurrency trading strategies. Developed by myself, a software engineer with a passion for quantitative development. Over the past year, I have focused on learning and applying quantitative techniques to the crypto space, ultimately crafting a platform that leverages advanced market analysis, automation, and robust risk management to help investors maximize returns while minimizing risk. NexTrade is engineered to help you capitalize on market movements in a fast-paced and highly competitive space, that is Cryptocurrency.
Key Features and Advantages
Sophisticated Market Analysis: NexTrade uses a comprehensive market analysis framework that examines historical trends, price movements, and market conditions across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges. The algorithm identifies trading opportunities by chart analysis on higher timeframes in order to follow trends, allowing it to execute trades at optimal moments.
Multi-Exchange Integration: NexTrade connects to multiple leading cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase Pro, to ensure access to diverse liquidity pools. This multi-exchange connectivity allows the platform to execute trades at the most favorable prices, optimizing profitability and minimizing slippage across various platforms. However, we suggest using the exchange with lowest fees possible.
Risk Management: NexTrade’s risk management features such as Stop Losses, ATR Trailing SL, and ADX chop indicator allows us to ensure we are effectively managing our risk.
Backtesting and Optimization: Before going live, NexTrade’s trading strategies undergo rigorous backtesting using historical market data. This enables users to see how strategies would have performed under various conditions, providing transparency and confidence in the platform’s potential for generating consistent returns. Ongoing optimization ensures that strategies evolve in response to market changes.
Real-Time Performance Monitoring: Users have access to detailed, real-time performance reports, tracking key metrics such as trades executed, profits, losses, and overall portfolio performance. This transparency allows investors to make informed decisions and monitor their investments closely at any time.
Market Opportunity
The cryptocurrency market continues to experience rapid growth, with trillions of dollars in trading volume annually. However, it is also notoriously volatile, creating both risk and reward opportunities for traders. To successfully navigate this market, investors need sophisticated tools that can automate the trading process and optimize decisions based on accurate market analysis.
NexTrade was developed to address this need. With its combination of data-driven market analysis, automated execution, and risk management, NexTrade is positioned to help investors gain an edge in a market that is often unpredictable and challenging. The platform offers a reliable, scalable solution to crypto trading, designed for both beginners and seasoned professionals.
Why Invest in NexTrade?
Scalable and Flexible: Whether you’re trading small amounts or large volumes, NexTrade can scale to accommodate your needs. The platform supports multiple exchanges, giving users the flexibility to diversify and grow their investments. Users can start with as low as $100!
Risk-Adjusted Returns: By focusing on risk management, NexTrade aims to deliver returns that are balanced with the level of risk the investor is willing to accept. The algorithm continuously adjusts trading strategies to align with market conditions, maximizing the potential for profits while minimizing the likelihood of significant losses.
24/7 Trading: The cryptocurrency market operates around the clock, and NexTrade is designed to take advantage of this. Its automated nature means that it can execute trades at any time, without the need for human intervention.
Conclusion
NexTrade offers a sophisticated yet accessible solution for investors looking to capitalize on the growth of the cryptocurrency market. With its focus on data-driven analysis, automated trade execution, and advanced risk management, NexTrade empowers investors to achieve optimal returns while managing risk effectively. Whether you are new to crypto or an experienced trader, NexTrade provides the tools needed to stay competitive and succeed in a fast-moving market.
By investing in NexTrade, you are gaining access to a proven algorithmic trading platform that has the potential to enhance your crypto trading strategy and deliver consistent results. The future of cryptocurrency trading is automated, risk-managed, and optimized—and NexTrade is leading the way.
If users wish the enable the chop detector on the bot, which uses ADX, they can turn it on in the settings after the strategu is added to the chart. By default, it is set to false.
Market Correlation AnalysisMarket Correlation Analysis is an indicator that measures the correlation of any two instruments.
To express price changes in a way that is comparable, this indicator uses a percentage of the ATR as a unit.
User Inputs:
Other Symbol - the symbol which we want to compare with the symbol of the main chart.
ATR for Price Movement Normalisation - I recommend high values to get the ATR more stable across time - if the ATR drastically changes, the indicator will register that as a price movement, because the unit in which price movements are measured itself changed by a lot. However, with higher values the ATR is stable and, in my opinion, more reliable than simply a percentage change of the current price.
Correlation Length - this is the number of bars for which the correlation coefficient will be calculated.
About The Indicator:
Market Correlation Analysis expresses the price changes of both instruments in question on the same histogram.
By default, the price changes that represent the instrument of the main chart are expressed with thinner bars of stronger colour, while the price changes that represent the other instrument are expressed with much thicker bars, which are of more pale colour.
The correlation coefficient is not expressed on the histogram, as it has a different scale. Therefore, it is only showed as a number.
I hope this indicator can make it easier to understand just how much two instruments have been similar to one another over a certain period of time. The possibility to see the correlation for any given time frame can give information that very specific to any trading style.
Enhanced Price Z-Score OscillatorThe Enhanced Price Z-Score Oscillator by tkarolak is a powerful tool that transforms raw price data into an easy-to-understand statistical visualization using Z-Score-derived candlesticks. Simply put, it shows how far prices stray from their average in terms of standard deviations (Z-Scores), helping traders identify when prices are unusually high (overbought) or unusually low (oversold).
The indicator’s default feature displays Z-Score Candlesticks, where each candle reflects the statistical “distance” of the open, high, low, and close prices from their average. This creates a visual map of market extremes and potential reversal points. For added flexibility, you can also switch to Z-Score line plots based on either Close prices or OHLC4 averages.
With clear threshold lines (±2σ and ±3σ) marking moderate and extreme price deviations, and color-coded zones to highlight overbought and oversold areas, the oscillator simplifies complex statistical concepts into actionable trading insights.
Temporary Help Services Jobs - Trend Allocation StrategyThis strategy is designed to capitalize on the economic trends represented by the Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS) index, which is published by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Temporary Help Services Jobs are often regarded as a leading indicator of labor market conditions, as changes in temporary employment levels frequently precede broader employment trends.
Methodology:
Data Source: The strategy uses the FRED dataset TEMPHELPS for monthly data on temporary help services.
Trend Definition:
Uptrend: When the current month's value is greater than the previous month's value.
Downtrend: When the current month's value is less than the previous month's value.
Entry Condition: A long position is opened when an uptrend is detected, provided no position is currently held.
Exit Condition: The long position is closed when a downtrend is detected.
Scientific Basis:
The TEMPHELPS index serves as a leading economic indicator, as noted in studies analyzing labor market cyclicality (e.g., Katz & Krueger, 1999). Temporary employment is often considered a proxy for broader economic conditions, particularly in predicting recessions or recoveries. Incorporating this index into trading strategies allows for aligning trades with potential macroeconomic shifts, as suggested by research on employment trends and market performance (Autor, 2001; Valetta & Bengali, 2013).
Usage:
This strategy is best suited for long-term investors or macroeconomic trend followers who wish to leverage labor market signals for equity or futures trading. It operates exclusively on end-of-month data, ensuring minimal transaction costs and noise.
Option Time ValueThis TradingView script calculates and visualizes the time value of an option (Call or Put) based on its market price and intrinsic value. The time value represents the premium paid for the option above its intrinsic value, and it is a key metric for analyzing the cost of holding an option.
This script is suitable for traders analyzing options on indices or stocks, such as the NIFTY 50, and supports both Call and Put options. By dynamically extracting the strike price and option type from the input symbol, it adapts seamlessly to the selected instrument.
Key Features:
Dynamic Instrument Selection:
Users can input the underlying asset (e.g., NSE:NIFTY) and the specific option instrument (e.g., NSE:NIFTY250327C24000 for a Call or NSE:NIFTY250327P24000 for a Put).
Automatic Option Type Detection:
The script detects whether the option is a Call or a Put by parsing the input symbol for the characters "C" (Call) or "P" (Put).
Dynamic Strike Price Extraction:
The strike price is dynamically extracted from the input option symbol, eliminating the need for hardcoding and reducing user errors.
Key Metrics Plotted:
Time Value: The premium paid above the intrinsic value, plotted in blue.
Intrinsic Value: The calculated intrinsic value of the option, plotted in green.
Seamless Integration:
Designed for ease of use and integration into existing TradingView setups.
Automatically adjusts to the timeframe and pricing data of the selected instruments.
McClellan A-D Volume Integration ModelThe strategy integrates the McClellan A-D Oscillator with an adjustment based on the Advance/Decline (A-D) volume data. The McClellan Oscillator is calculated by taking the difference between the short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the A-D line. This strategy introduces an enhancement where the A-D volume (the difference between the advancing and declining volume) is factored in to adjust the oscillator value.
Inputs:
• ema_short_length: The length for the short-term EMA of the A-D line.
• ema_long_length: The length for the long-term EMA of the A-D line.
• osc_threshold_long: The threshold below which the oscillator must drop for an entry signal to trigger.
• exit_periods: The number of periods after which the position is closed.
• Data Sources:
• ad_advance and ad_decline are the data sources for advancing and declining issues, respectively.
• vol_advance and vol_decline are the volume data for the advancing and declining issues. If volume data is unavailable, it defaults to na (Not Available), and the fallback logic ensures that the strategy continues to function.
McClellan Oscillator with Volume Adjustment:
• The A-D line is calculated by subtracting the declining issues from the advancing issues. Then, the volume difference is applied to this line, creating a “weighted” A-D line.
• The short and long EMAs are calculated for the weighted A-D line to generate the McClellan Oscillator.
Entry Condition:
• The strategy looks for a reversal signal, where the oscillator falls below the threshold and then rises above it again. The condition is designed to trigger a long position when this reversal happens.
Exit Condition:
• The position is closed after a set number of periods (exit_periods) have passed since the entry.
Plotting:
• The McClellan Oscillator and the threshold are plotted on the chart for visual reference.
• Entry and exit signals are highlighted with background colors to make the signals more visible.
Scientific Background:
The McClellan A-D Oscillator is a popular market breadth indicator developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan. It is used to gauge the underlying strength of a market by analyzing the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks. The oscillator is typically calculated using exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the A-D line, with the idea being that crossovers of these EMAs indicate potential changes in the market’s direction.
The integration of A-D volume into this model adds another layer of analysis, as volume is often considered a leading indicator of price movement. By factoring in volume, the strategy becomes more sensitive to not just the number of advancing or declining stocks but also how significant those movements are based on trading volume, as discussed in Schwager, J. D. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. This enhanced version aims to capture stronger and more sustainable trends in the market, helping to filter out false signals.
Additionally, volume analysis is often used to confirm price movements, as described in Wyckoff, R. (1931). The Day Trading System. Therefore, incorporating the volume of advancing and declining stocks in the McClellan Oscillator offers a more robust signal for trading decisions.
Z-Strike RecoveryThis strategy utilizes the Z-Score of daily changes in the VIX (Volatility Index) to identify moments of extreme market panic and initiate long entries. Scientific research highlights that extreme volatility levels often signal oversold markets, providing opportunities for mean-reversion strategies.
How the Strategy Works
Calculation of Daily VIX Changes:
The difference between today’s and yesterday’s VIX closing prices is calculated.
Z-Score Calculation:
The Z-Score quantifies how far the current change deviates from the mean (average), expressed in standard deviations:
Z-Score=(Daily VIX Change)−MeanStandard Deviation
Z-Score=Standard Deviation(Daily VIX Change)−Mean
The mean and standard deviation are computed over a rolling period of 16 days (default).
Entry Condition:
A long entry is triggered when the Z-Score exceeds a threshold of 1.3 (adjustable).
A high positive Z-Score indicates a strong overreaction in the market (panic).
Exit Condition:
The position is closed after 10 periods (days), regardless of market behavior.
Visualizations:
The Z-Score is plotted to make extreme values visible.
Horizontal threshold lines mark entry signals.
Bars with entry signals are highlighted with a blue background.
This strategy is particularly suitable for mean-reverting markets, such as the S&P 500.
Scientific Background
Volatility and Market Behavior:
Studies like Whaley (2000) demonstrate that the VIX, known as the "fear gauge," is highly correlated with market panic phases. A spike in the VIX is often interpreted as an oversold signal due to excessive hedging by investors.
Source: Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Z-Score in Financial Strategies:
The Z-Score is a proven method for detecting statistical outliers and is widely used in mean-reversion strategies.
Source: Chan, E. (2009). Quantitative Trading. Wiley Finance.
Mean-Reversion Approach:
The strategy builds on the mean-reversion principle, which assumes that extreme market movements tend to revert to the mean over time.
Source: Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
MA Deviation Suite [InvestorUnknown]This indicator combines advanced moving average techniques with multiple deviation metrics to offer traders a versatile tool for analyzing market trends and volatility.
Moving Average Types :
SMA, EMA, HMA, DEMA, FRAMA, VWMA: Standard moving averages with different characteristics for smoothing price data.
Corrective MA: This method corrects the MA by considering the variance, providing a more responsive average to price changes.
f_cma(float src, simple int length) =>
ma = ta.sma(src, length)
v1 = ta.variance(src, length)
v2 = math.pow(nz(ma , ma) - ma, 2)
v3 = v1 == 0 or v2 == 0 ? 1 : v2 / (v1 + v2)
var tolerance = math.pow(10, -5)
float err = 1
// Gain Factor
float kPrev = 1
float k = 1
for i = 0 to 5000 by 1
if err > tolerance
k := v3 * kPrev * (2 - kPrev)
err := kPrev - k
kPrev := k
kPrev
ma := nz(ma , src) + k * (ma - nz(ma , src))
Fisher Least Squares MA: Aims to reduce lag by using a Fisher Transform on residuals.
f_flsma(float src, simple int len) =>
ma = src
e = ta.sma(math.abs(src - nz(ma )), len)
z = ta.sma(src - nz(ma , src), len) / e
r = (math.exp(2 * z) - 1) / (math.exp(2 * z) + 1)
a = (bar_index - ta.sma(bar_index, len)) / ta.stdev(bar_index, len) * r
ma := ta.sma(src, len) + a * ta.stdev(src, len)
Sine-Weighted MA & Cosine-Weighted MA: These give more weight to middle bars, creating a smoother curve; Cosine weights are shifted for a different focus.
Deviation Metrics :
Average Absolute Deviation (AAD) and Median Absolute Deviation (MAD): AAD calculates the average of absolute deviations from the MA, offering a measure of volatility. MAD uses the median, which can be less sensitive to outliers.
Standard Deviation (StDev): Measures the dispersion of prices from the mean.
Average True Range (ATR): Reflects market volatility by considering the day's range.
Average Deviation (adev): The average of previous deviations.
// Calculate deviations
float aad = f_aad(src, dev_len, ma) * dev_mul
float mad = f_mad(src, dev_len, ma) * dev_mul
float stdev = ta.stdev(src, dev_len) * dev_mul
float atr = ta.atr(dev_len) * dev_mul
float avg_dev = math.avg(aad, mad, stdev, atr)
// Calculated Median with +dev and -dev
float aad_p = ma + aad
float aad_m = ma - aad
float mad_p = ma + mad
float mad_m = ma - mad
float stdev_p = ma + stdev
float stdev_m = ma - stdev
float atr_p = ma + atr
float atr_m = ma - atr
float adev_p = ma + avg_dev
float adev_m = ma - avg_dev
// upper and lower
float upper = f_max4(aad_p, mad_p, stdev_p, atr_p)
float upper2 = f_min4(aad_p, mad_p, stdev_p, atr_p)
float lower = f_min4(aad_m, mad_m, stdev_m, atr_m)
float lower2 = f_max4(aad_m, mad_m, stdev_m, atr_m)
Determining Trend
The indicator generates trend signals by assessing where price stands relative to these deviation-based lines. It assigns a trend score by summing individual signals from each deviation measure. For instance, if price crosses above the MAD-based upper line, it contributes a bullish point; crossing below an ATR-based lower line contributes a bearish point.
When the aggregated trend score crosses above zero, it suggests a shift towards a bullish environment; crossing below zero indicates a bearish bias.
// Define Trend scores
var int aad_t = 0
if ta.crossover(src, aad_p)
aad_t := 1
if ta.crossunder(src, aad_m)
aad_t := -1
var int mad_t = 0
if ta.crossover(src, mad_p)
mad_t := 1
if ta.crossunder(src, mad_m)
mad_t := -1
var int stdev_t = 0
if ta.crossover(src, stdev_p)
stdev_t := 1
if ta.crossunder(src, stdev_m)
stdev_t := -1
var int atr_t = 0
if ta.crossover(src, atr_p)
atr_t := 1
if ta.crossunder(src, atr_m)
atr_t := -1
var int adev_t = 0
if ta.crossover(src, adev_p)
adev_t := 1
if ta.crossunder(src, adev_m)
adev_t := -1
int upper_t = src > upper ? 3 : 0
int lower_t = src < lower ? 0 : -3
int upper2_t = src > upper2 ? 1 : 0
int lower2_t = src < lower2 ? 0 : -1
float trend = aad_t + mad_t + stdev_t + atr_t + adev_t + upper_t + lower_t + upper2_t + lower2_t
var float sig = 0
if ta.crossover(trend, 0)
sig := 1
else if ta.crossunder(trend, 0)
sig := -1
Backtesting and Performance Metrics
The code integrates with a backtesting library that allows traders to:
Evaluate the strategy historically
Compare the indicator’s signals with a simple buy-and-hold approach
Generate performance metrics (e.g., mean returns, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio) to assess historical effectiveness.
Practical Usage and Calibration
Default settings are not optimized: The given parameters serve as a starting point for demonstration. Users should adjust:
len: Affects how smooth and lagging the moving average is.
dev_len and dev_mul: Influence the sensitivity of the deviation measures. Larger multipliers widen the bands, potentially reducing false signals but introducing more lag. Smaller multipliers tighten the bands, producing quicker signals but potentially more whipsaws.
This flexibility allows the trader to tailor the indicator for various markets (stocks, forex, crypto) and time frames.
Disclaimer
No guaranteed results: Historical performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Market conditions can vary widely.
User responsibility: Traders should combine this indicator with other forms of analysis, appropriate risk management, and careful calibration of parameters.
Ultra Trade JournalThe Ultra Trade Journal is a powerful TradingView indicator designed to help traders meticulously document and analyze their trades. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, this tool offers a clear and organized way to visualize your trading strategy, monitor performance, and make informed decisions based on detailed trade metrics.
Detailed Description
The Ultra Trade Journal indicator allows users to input and visualize critical trade information directly on their TradingView charts.
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User Inputs
Traders can specify entry and exit prices , stop loss levels, and up to four take profit targets.
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Dynamic Plotting
Once the input values are set, the indicator automatically plots horizontal lines for entry, exit, stop loss, and each take profit level on the chart. These lines are visually distinct, using different colors and styles (solid, dashed, dotted) to represent each element clearly.
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Live Position Tracking
If enabled, the indicator can adjust the exit price in real-time based on the current market price, allowing traders to monitor live positions effectively.
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Tick Calculations
The script calculates the number of ticks between the entry price and each exit point (stop loss and take profits). This helps in understanding the movement required for each target and assessing the potential risk and reward.
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Risk-Reward Ratios
For each take profit level, the indicator computes the risk-reward (RR) ratio by comparing the ticks at each target against the stop loss ticks. This provides a quick view of the potential profitability versus the risk taken.
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Comprehensive Table Display
A customizable table is displayed on the chart, summarizing all key trade details. This includes the entry and exit prices, stop loss and take profit levels, tick counts, and their respective RR ratios.
Users can adjust the table's Position and text color to suit their preferences.
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Visual Enhancements
The indicator uses adjustable background shading between entry and stop loss/take profit lines to visually represent potential trade outcomes. This shading adjusts based on whether the trade is long or short, providing an intuitive understanding of trade performance.
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Overall, the Ultra Trade Journal combines visual clarity with detailed analytics, enabling traders to keep a well-organized record of their trades and enhance their trading strategies through insightful data.
HPDR Bands IndicatorThe HPDR Bands indicator is a customizable tool designed to help traders visualize dynamic price action zones. By combining historical price ranges with adaptive bands, this script provides clear insights into potential support, resistance, and midline levels. The indicator is well-suited for all trading styles, including trend-following and range-bound strategies.
Features:
Dynamic Price Bands: Calculates price zones based on historical highs and lows, blending long-term and short-term price data for responsive adaptation to current market conditions.
Probability Enhancements: Includes a probability plot derived from the relative position of the closing price within the range, adjusted for volatility to highlight potential price movement scenarios.
Fibonacci-Like Levels: Highlights key levels (100%, 95%, 88%, 78%, 61%, 50%, and 38%) for intuitive visualization of price zones, aiding in identifying high-probability trading opportunities.
Midline Visualization: Displays a midline that serves as a reference for price mean reversion or breakout analysis.
How to Use:
Trending Markets: Use the adaptive upper and lower bands to gauge potential breakout or retracement zones.
Range-Bound Markets: Identify support and resistance levels within the defined price range.
Volatility Analysis: Observe the probability plot and its sensitivity to volatility for informed decision-making.
Important Notes:
This script is not intended as investment advice. It is a tool to assist with market analysis and should be used alongside proper risk management and other trading tools.
The script is provided as-is and without warranty. Users are encouraged to backtest and validate its suitability for their specific trading needs.
Happy Trading!
If you find this script helpful, consider sharing your feedback or suggestions for improvement. Collaboration strengthens the TradingView community, and your input is always appreciated!
Bitcoin Premium [SAKANE]Overview
"Bitcoin Premium " is an indicator designed to analyze the price differences (premiums) of Bitcoin between major exchanges. By using this tool, you can visualize these differences and trends across exchanges, helping you make more informed trading decisions.
Features
1. Premium Calculation and Display
- Calculates and visualizes the price differences between major exchanges like Coinbase, Bitfinex, Upbit, and Binance.
- Premiums are displayed in a histogram format for intuitive analysis.
2. Forex Rate Adjustment
- Prices quoted in KRW (e.g., from Upbit) are converted to USD using real-time KRW/USD forex rates.
3. Moving Average Option
- Displays moving averages (SMA or EMA) of premiums for a clearer view of long-term trends.
4. Customizable Settings
- Toggle the premium display for each exchange on or off.
- Includes label displays to support visual analysis.
What Can It Do for You?
1. Identify Arbitrage Opportunities
By observing price differences (premiums) between exchanges, you can identify arbitrage opportunities.
Example: If Bitcoin is cheaper on Binance and more expensive on Coinbase, you could buy on Binance and sell on Coinbase to capture the price difference.
2. Understand Regional Supply and Demand Trends
Each exchange's premium reflects the supply and demand dynamics of its respective region.
Example: A high premium on Upbit may indicate excess demand or regulatory impacts in the South Korean market.
3. Analyze Liquidity
Price differences often highlight liquidity disparities between exchanges. Markets with lower trading volumes tend to have larger premiums due to price distortions.
4. Evaluate Macroeconomic Impacts
Premium movements may reflect changes in macroeconomic factors, such as exchange rates, regulations, or financial conditions specific to each region.
5. Analyze Trends and Market Sentiment
By tracking premium trends, you can gauge market sentiment and understand regional or exchange-specific behaviors to inform your investment decisions.
6. Support Strategic Trading
This tool is useful for short-term arbitrage strategies as well as long-term evaluations of market health.
Exchange Characteristics and Premium Implications
The meaning of premiums varies by exchange.
- Coinbase (US Market)
Primarily used by investors buying directly with fiat currency (USD). A higher premium often signals bullish sentiment among institutional and retail investors.
- Bitfinex (Global Market)
A trader-focused exchange with active large-scale and leveraged trading. Premiums may reflect liquidity and risk appetite.
- Upbit (South Korean Market)
Priced in KRW, making it subject to forex rates and local market dynamics. High premiums may indicate strong demand or regulatory influences in South Korea.
- Binance (Global Market)
The largest exchange by trading volume. Premiums here are often a reflection of the overall market balance.
Notes
- This indicator is for reference only and does not guarantee trading decisions.
- Please consider the characteristics and conditions of each exchange when using this tool.
VIX Spike StrategyThis script implements a trading strategy based on the Volatility Index (VIX) and its standard deviation. It aims to enter a long position when the VIX exceeds a certain number of standard deviations above its moving average, which is a signal of a volatility spike. The position is then exited after a set number of periods.
VIX Symbol (vix_symbol): The input allows the user to specify the symbol for the VIX index (typically "CBOE:VIX").
Standard Deviation Length (stddev_length): The number of periods used to calculate the standard deviation of the VIX. This can be adjusted by the user.
Standard Deviation Multiplier (stddev_multiple): This multiplier is used to determine how many standard deviations above the moving average the VIX must exceed to trigger a long entry.
Exit Periods (exit_periods): The user specifies how many periods after entering the position the strategy will exit the trade.
Strategy Logic:
Data Loading: The script loads the VIX data, both for the current timeframe and as a rescaled version for calculation purposes.
Standard Deviation Calculation: It calculates both the moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the VIX over the specified period (stddev_length).
Entry Condition: A long position is entered when the VIX exceeds the moving average by a specified multiple of its standard deviation (calculated as vix_mean + stddev_multiple * vix_stddev).
Exit Condition: After the position is entered, it will be closed after the user-defined number of periods (exit_periods).
Visualization:
The VIX is plotted in blue.
The moving average of the VIX is plotted in orange.
The threshold for the VIX, which is the moving average plus the standard deviation multiplier, is plotted in red.
The background turns green when the entry condition is met, providing a visual cue.
Sources:
The VIX is often used as a measure of market volatility, with high values indicating increased uncertainty in the market.
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the variability or dispersion of a set of data points. In financial markets, it is used to measure the volatility of asset prices.
References:
Bollerslev, T. (1986). "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity." Journal of Econometrics.
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities." Journal of Political Economy.
