Nasdaq 100, Tesla and Apple OutlookWall Street is on the verge of closing lower for a third week for the first time in eight months. I explain why I think there could be further losses ahead, why Tesla (TSLA) is a preferred short setup and why to keep an eye on Apple (AAPL).
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Trade ideas
Tesla's curious caseTesla has always been a volatile stock but since 2021, it has forever been under corrective wave strcuture. Its not the typical corrective structure where the prices only go down, but it's a combination of large scale Zigzag and inverse Zigzag.
The current corrective wave will end between 320-328 and then again an upmove journey will begin heading towards 733 mark ( exact number to be confirmed once uptrend starts.
Be on the watch out for entering at 325.
QuantSignals V3 TSLA Alert: Strong Bearish MomentumTSLA 1M | QuantSignals Katy | 2025-11-20
Direction: PUT (Bearish)
Confidence: 75%
Current Price: $427.76
Final Target: $411.82 (-3.73%)
30min Target: $419.17 (-2.01%)
Entry: $427.76
Take Profit: $415.01
Stop Loss: $434.18
Volatility: 24.9%
Analysis:
Katy AI predicts steady bearish movement over the month.
Momentum favors downside, with 1M horizon showing consistent decline.
Strong confidence (75%) and moderate volatility suggest high-probability put setup.
Trade Setup & Edge:
Entry aligns with current price at resistance level.
Tight stop limits risk while capturing projected downside.
Short-term 30-min target gives early exit option if quick profit is desired.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Moderate volatility; adjust position size accordingly.
Tesla (TSLA) – Key Levels Tightening Up Ahead on Nov. 20TSLA is coiling inside a clean rising wedge on the 1H and 15M charts. Price is grinding toward the apex with buyers slowly stepping in, but sellers are still defending the 410–415 zone. This tension usually leads to a breakout move, up or down, depending on how the opening momentum comes in.
Tomorrow, traders will be watching TSLA because it’s sitting right at the intersection of trendline pressure + GEX walls — perfect setup for volatility.
1. 1H Timeframe – Bigger Picture
* TSLA is trapped between 395 support and 410–415 resistance.
* The rising wedge support is doing its job. Every dip into 395–398 gets bought.
* If TSLA clears 415, it can quickly push toward 422–425, then 430.
* If it rejects again, the wedge breaks down toward 400, then 390.
What matters:
This structure is tight. A move outside the wedge tomorrow will set direction for the next 2–3 sessions.
2. 15M Timeframe – Intraday Setup
* Strong BOS + CHoCH stack that reversed the downtrend earlier today.
* Price is now retesting the mid-range around 410.
* Bears are active at 410.30–411.50 (multiple rejections).
* Bulls defending the 401–402 block and 398–400 FVG zone.
If buyers hold 401–402:
TSLA can attempt 415 → 422.
If sellers break 398:
Expect a fast unwind toward 390–392.
The 15M gives the intraday trigger for the bigger 1H structure.
3. GEX / Options Sentiment – Confirms the Levels
This is the clean part:
* Highest positive GEX resistance at 422–425.
Options dealers hedge aggressively there → hard ceiling unless volume comes in.
* 410 is the HVL zone — right where price is stuck.
This level often acts like a magnet and chop zone.
* Below price, 400 / 395 / 390 are stacked with negative GEX →
this acts like put support. Traders love to take premium here.
What this means:
GEX supports the same ranges the chart shows:
* Above 415 → clear air pockets toward 422–425.
* Below 400 → air pocket toward 390.
Trading Outlook for Nov 20
Bullish Scenario
* Needs to reclaim 415 with strength.
* First target: 422
* Next target: 425–430
* Momentum confirmation: volume spike + 15M BOS continuation.
Bearish Scenario
* Lose 398–400, preferably on a breakdown during first 15–30 minutes.
* Target: 390–392
* Next: 382 (deep range sweep)
Neutral / Range
* If price sits between 402–410, expect chop.
* This is where most retail gets trapped.
Probability Summary (Not Signals)
* Breakout above 415: moderate probability if NASDAQ is strong.
* Reject & fade into 400: high probability if SPY pulls back.
* Chop 402–410: base case until macro gives direction.
Final Note
Everything lines up cleanly across 1H, 15M, and GEX — the exact setup traders search for before a trend day. TSLA will be heavily watched tomorrow because whichever side wins this 410 battle will control the next big move.
Tesla Is Moving Toward a Key Support ZoneHello everyone, Tesla is entering a sensitive phase as the strong rally from 310 USD to 406 USD over the past two months begins to lose momentum. The recent decline is not just a normal pullback; the repeated appearance of red FVGs shows that buying pressure is fading while sellers are gradually taking control again. At the moment, the 401 USD level is acting as the nearest support. If this area fails to hold, Tesla could slide further toward 395 USD — a zone with green FVGs and heavy volume where strong buying previously pushed the price upward.
On the fundamental side, the news flow isn’t helping. Tesla’s Q3/2025 report showed adjusted profits dropping nearly 29% even though revenue still grew around 12%, indicating that operational efficiency is weaker than expected. Rising costs, lower income from regulatory credits, and massive investments in AI and robotics continue to squeeze margins. At the same time, competition from Chinese and European EV manufacturers is intensifying, putting additional pressure on Tesla’s future market share. With the broader tech market shifting toward a risk-off mood, growth stocks are taking heavier hits — and Tesla is clearly feeling that weight.
Given both technical structure and market sentiment, the most reasonable scenario right now is a continued move down into the 395 USD support zone to test liquidity and gauge the market’s reaction. This level remains a strong technical area and could trigger a meaningful bounce if buyers step in. However, if 395 USD breaks under negative news or persistent outflows from growth assets, the decline could extend toward 385–380 USD. On the flip side, if a major positive catalyst appears — such as notable progress in robotaxi development, better margins, or a breakthrough in battery technology — the 405–410 USD region would be the first recovery target.
For now, Tesla is standing at a “pivot zone” — a place where the market will soon reveal whether this is just a pause before another upward leg, or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle.
QuantSignals V3 | TSLA High-Probability Weekly PUT TradeTSLA QuantSignals V3 – Weekly PUT Trade (2025-11-19)
Trade Signal:
Direction: BUY PUTS (Short)
Strike Price: $402.50
Entry Range: $8.35–$8.45 (mid $8.40)
Target 1: $12.60 (50% gain)
Target 2: $16.80 (100% gain)
Stop Loss: $5.88 (30% risk)
Expiry: 2025-11-21 (2 days)
Position Size: 3% of portfolio
Confidence: 65% (Medium)
Market Analysis:
Trend: NEUTRAL overall, short-term bearish bias (-0.67% predicted decline)
Price Action: Current $401.88, trading below VWAP $406.38
Technicals: EMA bearish, weekly momentum neutral (-0.61%), key support $380.97, resistance $432.75
Options Flow: Put/Call Ratio 1.39, institutional put-heavy positioning
Volatility: Rising VIX (19.83 vs 18.44 avg) indicates increasing market nervousness
News Sentiment: Mixed; positive news not lifting price, sector skepticism present
Competitive Edge:
Katy AI downside prediction combined with strong bearish options flow and technical weakness
$402.50 strike balances risk/reward near-the-money
Mid-week entry captures potential late-week volatility
Tight stop loss mitigates gamma risk
Risk Notes:
2-day expiry creates high gamma and time decay risk
Rising VIX may increase premiums but also volatility
Moderate conviction requires careful position sizing
Monitor actively through expiration
What are these "algorithms" I'm always talking about?I talk a lot about “ algorithms ” - but for newer followers, it can feel abstract or confusing.
This video breaks down the core logic behind how I analyze any chart and tell a story to set up for the best possible trade.
Here I discuss:
- What is liquidity
- How the market builds liquidity
- Why certain movements/patterns repeat with accuracy
- How tapering, liquidity, and the basics of supply and demand form algorithmic behavior
If you want to understand the power behind the charts I show every day, this is for you.
(It's difficult to do this in a 10 minute video - which is why I have students who I work with one-on-one to dive deeper into learning this process. I don't sell myself or a course - I simply want you all to learn something that is truly helpful and beautiful. I post everything I know on here as often as I can!)
Happy Trading :)
TSLA: Serious Divergence at $380As a long term investor I am not concerned with corrections, and when we look back at price movement retrospectively, they always seem to be the correct movements.
I trust the process, but it's always fun to try and snipe a buy. To me it feels like upper 300s are on trend for a reversal. Tesla is known to move slow and sideways before moving higher. So I don't presume to know when we begin to hit the $500s. However, I do believe it is inevitable - whether we get there before the end of the year or next year.
No trade advise. Just investing in quality companies for the long term.
TSLA Testing a Key Support — Will Buyers Step Up? (Nov 19)TSLA has been drifting lower ever since rejecting the 423–440 supply zone, and now price is sitting right on top of an important support shelf around 397–401. This level has been tested multiple times and has acted as the midpoint of the entire October–November structure.
Tomorrow (Nov 19) will tell us if this support holds — or if TSLA breaks into the deeper liquidity zone toward 380 and below.
📌 TSLA — Daily Structure (1D)
The daily chart shows TSLA losing its rising trendline from August and pulling back toward the first major demand zone.
Key levels:
* 423–440 → Major supply, previous rejection
* 401–398 → Immediate support
* 380–381 → Next liquidity sweep
* 213 → Deep macro demand below
Right now TSLA is sitting right between two worlds — still above the major breakdown level, but below all the recent bullish structure.
📌 TSLA — Intraday Trend (1H)
The 1H chart shows a clean sequence of CHoCH → BOS → lower highs, confirming the short-term downtrend.
Short-term zones for tomorrow:
Resistance:
* 404–408 → First lid
* 415–423 → Major resistance + heavy supply zone
* 440 → Macro rejection zone
Support:
* 397–398 → Current support
* 380–381 → Next high-volume liquidity zone
* Lose 380 → quick move into 370s
The intraday structure stays bearish unless TSLA reclaims 408–415.
📌 TSLA — GEX Levels for Nov 19
This adds the real roadmap for tomorrow.
CALL Walls / Resistance
* 415 → Heavy call wall
* 423–430 → Largest positive GEX cluster
(This is why TSLA struggled to push higher all week)
PUT Support
* 398–400 → Highest negative GEX / HVL support
* 390 → Second put wall
* 380 → Strong third wall
TSLA is sitting directly on the 398–400 GEX shelf.
Lose this → 390, then 380.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Bounce From Support)
TSLA must hold 397–400 early in the session.
If buyers step in:
1. Reclaim 404–408
2. Push into 415 (first big wall)
3. Clear 415 → move toward 423
4. Break 423 → opens path toward 430
TSLA is bullish only if it breaks 408 first.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Break of Support)
If TSLA opens weak or rejects 404–408 early:
1. Drop back into 398–400
2. Lose 398 → straight to 390
3. Lose 390 → strong magnet toward 380–381
Your 1H chart structure supports this: BOS levels all pointing downward.
🔎 My Outlook for Nov 19
TSLA is sitting on a key support shelf (398–401), but momentum is still bearish. Unless TSLA reclaims the 404–408 range early, sellers continue to have control.
Bias:
* Neutral → Bearish below 404
* Bullish only above 408 → 415
As long as TSLA is under 415, upside is limited because of the heavy GEX resistance stack.
📌 Summary
* Daily trendline broken
* Support: 398–401, then 390 → 380
* Resistance: 404–408, then 415–423
* GEX strongest support: 398–400
* Bullish only above 408 → 415
* Bearish continuation under 398
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always trade your plan and manage risk.
Tesla at Key Support Level & Wins Ride-Hailing Permit in ArizonaTesla has secured a Transportation Network Company (TNC) permit in Arizona, marking another strategic step toward launching its robotaxi service. While the permit does not authorize Tesla to operate a fully driverless ride-hailing network, it grants the company legal approval to function as a ride-hailing operator under state regulations. This follows Tesla’s earlier approval in September to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver on Arizona roads.
According to the Arizona Department of Transportation, Tesla applied for the permit on November 13 and met all regulatory requirements, receiving approval on November 17. The TNC license positions Tesla to begin laying operational groundwork for its robotaxi ambitions, fleet structure, service protocols, pricing models, and state compliance, while it continues advancing autonomous capabilities through its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform.
Arizona has long been considered one of the most autonomous-friendly states, hosting early deployments from Waymo, Cruise, and other AV developers. Tesla’s entry expands the competitive landscape and brings its robotaxi vision closer to reality, though safety-driver supervision remains mandatory for now. The new permit reinforces Tesla’s strategic push into transportation services, signaling that regulatory pathways for FSD-enabled ride-hailing are steadily opening.
Technical Outlook
Tesla’s chart shows price pulling back into a key ascending trendline that has supported the uptrend since April. The current zone around $401 is a strong demand area, aligning with trendline support
A bounce from this level sets Tesla up for a potential continuation toward the major resistance at $488. A clean break above that level would confirm a medium-term bullish extension. RSI remains neutral, suggesting room for upside if buyers defend current support.
If the trendline fails, Tesla could retest deeper support near the $330–$345 range. For now, momentum favors a rebound as long as the trendline holds.
Tesla: DownwardShortly after our last update, Tesla experienced noticeable downward momentum, initially entering our previously magenta alternative target zone, which has already been stopped out. We currently consider the green wave complete, and the alternative target zone has been deactivated and grayed out. However, there's still a chance the stock could rise sharply, confirming an ongoing upward trend. If this alternative scenario, which has a 35% probability, plays out, we would mark blue wave alt.(II) as complete and expect gains above the resistance at $509.50 and $532.92 within a magenta upward impulse. Primarily, we anticipate further sell-offs and expect the regular wave-(II) correction low to occur first in our green target zone between $157.88 and $46.70. This green zone could potentially be suitable for long entries, protected by a stop 1% below the zone's lower edge.
TESLA — Bad Earnings + Overcrowded Trade = More Downside RiskSummary:
Tesla’s latest earnings disappointed again — weak margins, slower delivery growth, and unclear guidance on new product cycles.
Despite that, retail and institutional positioning remains heavily crowded, with traders still trying to buy every dip.
But when sentiment stays bullish while fundamentals weaken — that’s when distribution begins quietly.
Key points:
EPS miss and declining automotive margins.
Valuation still priced for perfection.
Lower volume reaction on bounces = fading demand.
Market rotation out of megacaps continues as yields stay high.
Technical setup (chart above):
Major rejection at 450–455 USD resistance (post-earnings rally exhaustion).
Potential continuation toward 420 → 397 → 372 USD support zones.
Short zone: 445–450
Target: 372
Stop: 455
Narrative:
The “AI car” story is overcrowded — even good news now fails to spark real follow-through.
If macro stays tight and rates high, Tesla could correct further before finding long-term buyers again.
💬 “When everyone already owns it, there’s no one left to buy.”
TSLA Bearish Setup: Double Top BreakdownTSLA’s 1D chart has shifted from a clean uptrend into a clear corrective phase. After a strong run into the $475 area, price printed a potential Double Top and then rolled over, breaking the neckline around $410 alongside a bearish Market Structure Shift. Price now sits below the 20 and 60-day MAs while still above the rising 120-day MA, framing this as a short-term bearish move within a longer-term uptrend.
The primary path favors further downside as long as TSLA stays capped below the $410–416 neckline zone and the $420 reclaim level. A daily close below the recent swing low at $385 would confirm continuation, opening room toward the $373 area and the 120-day MA support near $369, with an extended downside magnet around $360–345 if selling accelerates. MACD turning negative and increasing downside Squeeze Momentum both align with this bias.
If buyers manage to reclaim $420 on a daily close, that would threaten the bearish thesis by taking price back above the neckline and the 60-day MA. Such a squeeze could fuel a move toward $460 and potentially a retest of the $475 supply zone. Until that happens, rallies into $405–416 remain vulnerable to rejection.
Thought of the Day 💡: The strongest trade ideas start with a precise invalidation, not a prediction.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations.
-------------------------
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
TSLA Losing Momentum – Uptrend Breakdown RiskLooking at the current picture, both news flow and technical signals show that Tesla is entering a challenging phase. A series of recent negative developments — from large funds selling off, to declining sales in China, and Elon Musk potentially taking a loss on his latest share purchases — have clearly shaken market confidence. As a result, TSLA has been under continuous selling pressure, and its price action has weakened significantly compared to the previous bullish period.
On the chart, the resistance area around $447 continues to act as a “steel ceiling”: every touch has been firmly rejected. The recent strong bearish candle pushed TSLA back into the Ichimoku cloud, breaking the short-term upward structure. More importantly, the price is now at risk of losing the uptrend line that has held since April, indicating that medium-term bullish momentum is fading.
If TSLA fails to reclaim the $430–$447 zone in the next recovery attempts, a drop toward $329 becomes a very realistic scenario — this level has been a major support in the past and aligns with the lower boundary of the primary trend channel.
TESLA FREE SIGANL|SHORT|
✅TESLA Price reacts off a premium-priced supply block, showing bearish displacement and a clean break in structure. Retracement into the imbalance may fuel continuation lower.
—————————
Entry: 408.98$
Stop Loss: 424.00$
Take Profit: 392.00$
Time Frame: 4H
—————————
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Double Top - Rejection CandlesI do believe we are in the beginning innings of a mild "bear" market for the rest of the year. Too many folks wanting to sell high beta/valuation names. Add the Mag 7 collapse risk and TSLA is particularly vulnerable and may get unwound back to mid 300s.
We do have NVDIA earnings this Wednesday and jobs report on Thursday. I don't expect these events to change the thesis.
Add insult to injury, you have Peter Theil also lightening his TSLA position. And I don't think Elon's open market purchase on Sep 12 will support the stock price from falling back down to previous mid 300 level support
Look for long wick rejection candles like the ones highlighted with the hammers, these will confirm we are still in the downward phase.
QuantSignals V3 | TSLA Breakdown SetupTSLA QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction 2025-11-17
Symbol: TSLA
Price: 415.30
Model: Katy AI — 1M Prediction
Trend: Bearish
Confidence: 75%
🔮 Vision Summary
TSLA shows a bearish short-term structure, with the model forecasting a move toward 403.52
(-2.84%). Momentum is shifting lower, and volatility remains moderate at 20%, supporting a gradual downside drift rather than a sharp drop.
Near-term projection points to 411.47 within the next 30 minutes as price weakens into lower support zones.
📉 Key Levels
Entry Zone: 415.30
Downside Target: 405.87 – 403.52
Resistance / Invalidation: 421.53
🧭 Vision Bias
Bearish — Model anticipates sustained downside pressure as TSLA fails to reclaim short-term resistance.
Break above 421.53 invalidates the bearish thesis.
Tesla BuyTesla has reclaimed the breakdown zone after a liquidity hunt, showing early bullish momentum. Price is pushing back into the previous range, offering a clean long setup with tight risk below the recent rejection zone. Upside targets align with the unfilled imbalance and overhead liquidity.
entering @415.3 keeping target as 445 trailing
NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA: one more leg down potential NASDAQ:TSLA
Watching for one more leg down into the 430–400 mid-term support zone to potentially complete the corrective structure, if price remains unable to break out above the October/November highs.
Chart:
Alternatively, if price manages to break-out and stay above above recent resistance, odds favor continuation to 555-630 resistance zone.
Chart:
Previously:
• On macro bottoming potential (Jun 6):
tradingview.com
• On support (Sep 19):
• On mid-term support (Oct 7):






















