AAPL – Pullback Setup After Keynote-Induced Dip

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My original post was hidden due to a house rule violation, but I’m sharing the setup again here:

Apple’s stock dropped heavily after the recent iPhone 17 / iPhone Air keynote, landing on a key support level that previously aligned with an upside break of structure.

This sharp decline appears to have started an Elliott 5-wave move. Wave 3 has already completed, and I’m now speculating for Wave 4 to develop — which could complete a tight 0.5R setup.

Confluences:
• RSI and MACD both showing divergences at support
• Stochastic oversold, also printing divergence
• Structure remains intact, likely aiming for a retest of the above resistance area

For this setup, a 1 ATR target protected by a 2 ATR stop loss on the 1H timeframe should be enough.

Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.

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أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

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ملاحظة

This trade closed at 0.5R, and that’s exactly the point. I know many aim for 1:3R or higher, but the truth is those often don’t hit on the first attempt. With 0.5R it’s usually the opposite – most of them do hit first.

The psychological side is huge:
- it’s not mentally exhausting,
- it gives quick wins and confidence,
- with an 80%+ winrate, a few quick wins are usually enough to cover the occasional loss and keep the account in balance.

I’m not saying everyone should trade like this, but if you love trading and still feel you’re fighting the market or yourself, this approach is worth thinking about.

And as this one reached target, so did others – for example:

One more important part of the concept: the ATR. It adapts to market conditions, and thanks to leverage, even if the target looks “close,” it’s still possible to take sizeable positions. That means you can capture solid percentage gains – sometimes in just a few minutes – regardless of whether the market is slow or volatile.

Hope this perspective gave you some value.