BCH-Cycle Wave 3-The Great Wave-Part 1 لـ BITFINEX:BCHUSD بواسطة FibMarketWatch

$BITFINEX:BCHUSDhas completed Cycle Wave 2 and is beginning Cycle Wave 3 now!

Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.

Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.

Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.

Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory

Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)

Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)

Review:

Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex

Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days

Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)

Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1

Primary Wave Sequence

Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%

Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%

Primary Wave Fib Time

Primary Wave Fib Extension:

Primary Wave Fib Spirals:

The Failed Wave

I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.

Review:

Cycle Wave 1 & 2

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.

This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.

Will update.

-AB

ملاحظة

Lower Degree Wave 1 Retrace was approx. 23.6%.

Lower Degree Wave 1 Extended

= Higher Degree Extend

ملاحظة

Added: Fib Time Ext. on Higher and Lower Wave 1

ملاحظة

Massive move incoming...

ملاحظة

Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be complete

ملاحظة

Think I count 5 Sub-Waves...

ملاحظة

Wave C Complete.

ملاحظة

Now we should see a sharp move higher...

ملاحظة

Spirals can be a great timing and target mechanism...

ملاحظة

Above: The Complete ABC correction

ملاحظة

Check the indicators for confirmation...

ملاحظة

FYI: Spirals are distorted since indicators are shown

ملاحظة

Favorite MACD setting: 21, 33, 18

Shows less false signals than 12, 26, 9

ملاحظة

Indicators all look good.

Ultimate Oscillator momentum trending higher

EMA Wave indicating a Positive Convergence

MACD is about to crossover

Elder Force shows a Divergence

ملاحظة

Wave C = Wave 1

ملاحظة

Russian Nesting Doll Effect

If you do not know what Russian Nesting Dolls are please Google "Russian Nesting Dolls".

Otherwise you will have no idea what I am talking about...

ملاحظة

Above: Wave C = Wave 1

ملاحظة

Purple = Wave 1 Sequence
Yellow = Wave C Sequence

ملاحظة

The only Wave Sequence that is allowed to violate Elliot's Wave Rules

ملاحظة

Wave 3 violated Wave 1 Price Area

ملاحظة

Excuse me: Wave 4 violated Wave 1 Price Area

ملاحظة

Better View of Sequence

ملاحظة

Sub Wave Count: ABC Correction

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave Count for Primary Wave

ملاحظة

Added:
Fib Ext. = Wave 1 (0) - Wave 1 (T) - Wave C = Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 1 (T) - Sub-Wave 2 (T) = Sub-Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 4 (T) = Sub-Wave 5 Levels
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (1-0) = Target Wave 3
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (T) - Wave C (T) = Timeline Wave 3 to begin

ملاحظة

Changed Spiral Color
Added Time Range

ملاحظة

(0) = Point Zero or Beginning of Wave/Sub-Wave
(T) = Terminal Wave Point or End of Wave/Sub-Wave
(x) = Sub-Wave (1,2,3,4,5)

ملاحظة

After C Wave Finished the price-action has done a sets of 5-3-5.

Complex Correction.

ملاحظة

We are right at the APEX!

ملاحظة

Broke the Leading Diagonal...

ملاحظة

Once that dam (Leading Diagonal) is broken the price-Action should be racing higher...

ملاحظة

Added Fib Extension: S1 & S2 = S3 Key Levels

ملاحظة

Vindication

ملاحظة

Analysis Proven.

Confirmed Correction is OVER!

ملاحظة

Yup...

Lovin it.

This will take awhile to cool down...

ملاحظة

ZigZag Correction Anticipated

ملاحظة

If Wave A comes down in 5 Sub-Waves

ملاحظة

Wave C could be a good trade...

ملاحظة

Wave C happening now...

Fib Ext. Wave A & Wave B = Wave C Levels

ملاحظة

$507-$520. Possible Trade Level.

ملاحظة

Wave 3 is extending

ملاحظة

Wave 3 significantly passed 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Level from Wave 1 & 2.

ملاحظة

Note: Sub-Wave 3 extended

ملاحظة

ZigZag Correction

ملاحظة

Higher Wave

ملاحظة

Wave Sequence so far...

ملاحظة

Fib Spiral Theory -

Wave 1 Spiral = Wave 3 Terminal = Check

ملاحظة

Finding levels where the 5th Wave/Higher 1st Degree could end.

ملاحظة

$556 looks interesting
$520 looks interesting

ملاحظة

This could be a Wave Sequence.

Wave 1 - 5.85%
Wave 3 -12.40%
Wave 5 - 6.42%

Or

Wave 5 could trend near equality to Wave 3

ملاحظة

I’m more inclinded to Wave 5 extending...

ملاحظة

Current Sub-Wave Count

ملاحظة

Might have a ZigZag Correction here...

ملاحظة

Sold @ 483.03

ملاحظة

STOP Hit 484.99

ملاحظة

If the 5th Wave did not extend...the correction would have been at the $484 level.

Now, $520-$566 are the next levels to watch for...

ملاحظة

Added Fib Spiral: Wave 4

ملاحظة

1.618 Breached

Still extending

ملاحظة

Still going...

ملاحظة

$590 is the next level...

ملاحظة

Fib Ext: 0-3-4 = 5th Key Levels

Passing 1.618

ملاحظة

Lower Extension Trigger Added

ملاحظة

Lower=Blue
Higher=Green

ملاحظة

Correction looks to be inbound...

ملاحظة

Yellow box = Wave Sequence

ملاحظة

Sell: $546.00
Buy: $480.00

Watch for Extensions

ملاحظة

Yellow Box Sequence:

1 - 6.4%
2 - 16.4%
3 - 6.5%

ملاحظة

$590 next stop

ملاحظة

I think we MAY have hit exhaustion with the First Wave Sequence.

ملاحظة

Stopped out again...

Passed Extension line

ملاحظة

Ignore Stop Sell...forgot to remove

ملاحظة

$613-$671 Levels to watch.

ملاحظة

BCH is looking to take off again...

ملاحظة

Fib Spiral Target: $720

ملاحظة

Not going to put on another trade until 100% certain we are at the Terminal 5th/Higher 1st.

I suspect that will be around $720.

ملاحظة

Correction Now:

ملاحظة

Target $508 - $498

ملاحظة

Added:
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Wave A (T)
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 3 (T)
Regression Trend: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 3 (T)
Channel Line: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 2 (T)
Wave 1 = 15.72%
Wave 3 = 30.41%

Wave C = -11.44% Estimate

ملاحظة

Watch $530 level...

If $530 Fails...watch $480-$485

ملاحظة

STOP-BUY triggered $547

ملاحظة

4.52% Gain

ملاحظة

STOP-SELL $550

ملاحظة

Still Sold @ $550

Stop-Limit Buy @ $475

ملاحظة

1st Wave Sequence Complete
2nd Wave Correction Now...

ملاحظة

The most common retrace for Wave 2 is Fibonacci Level .618.

ملاحظة

Wave 1 only retraced .382

STOP-BUY triggered $553.

ملاحظة

590 Key Level I have been talking about for awhile...

ملاحظة

STOP-BUY turns into STOP-SELL but a little higher to cover exchange fees...

ملاحظة

Looks like a Wave Sequence to me...

ملاحظة

Good Trade opportunity possible...

ملاحظة

Looking to test $566...

ملاحظة

Always watch for extensions and have a STOP-BUY on ALWAYS! If you are trading the Waves!

ملاحظة

Let's find the 5th Extension levels...

ملاحظة

Above: Key 5th Levels

ملاحظة

Let's see if a Wave will trend near equality...

ملاحظة

Wave 1 & 5 are currently trending toward equality...

ملاحظة

It's either Correction or Snap higher...

ملاحظة

Inclined to correction...

ملاحظة

Added Fib Time Extension to Correction Sub-Wave Sequence
Added Fib Time Extension to Sub-Wave Sequence

ملاحظة

Ignore STOP.
Chart is just price-action update.

ملاحظة

Still extending...

ملاحظة

$720 area still looks to be a Terminal point.

ملاحظة

Correction Now.

Unsure if it is the Higher Degree Correction

ملاحظة

Stop Sell Triggered @ 620

ملاحظة

The way it sold off makes me think it is the higher degree

ملاحظة

Review

ملاحظة

$660 next level...

ملاحظة

STOP SELL triggered @ 628.90

ملاحظة

Having trouble here with the Fibonacci Level .5...
Fib Ext. (0-3-4)

ملاحظة

604 is Sub-Wave 1 Terminal for the 5th Wave Sequence

ملاحظة

If 598 fails look to the lower terminal sub-waves

563 Sub-Wave Terminal

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave Sequence held...

STOP-BUY triggered @ 613

ملاحظة

Watch 624 and 630...

ملاحظة

Wave A complete

ملاحظة

620 is failing...

ملاحظة

Higher Degree Correction?

ملاحظة

The main trade we have been waiting for?

ملاحظة

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ 556

ملاحظة

Excuse above.

ملاحظة

Watch the Blue Levels for the retracement...

ملاحظة

Green Spiral is Wave 2 Retrace Target

ملاحظة

Wave 1 & 5 trended to equality.

ملاحظة

Primary Wave Sequence

ملاحظة

Retrace to $475-$480 likely

ملاحظة

Fib Time Ext. Sub-Wave 1 = Time Frame of Higher Wave

ملاحظة

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ $480

ملاحظة

Buy Zone: $488-$476-$459

ملاحظة

Lowered Buy to @ $465.

This will be a fast move...

ملاحظة

Primary Wave Sequence Hit 1.236 Level of Fib Extension of higher Wave 1 & 2

ملاحظة

Staying course to buy @ $465.

Bottom is probably $455-$465.

ملاحظة

Action update: Stay the course

ملاحظة

Quick Drop Imminent...

ملاحظة

Time Estimate to Begin Primary Wave 3

ملاحظة

Buy still @ $465

ملاحظة

Action update:

ملاحظة

Action update:

ملاحظة

Action update:

ملاحظة

Action update:

Watch $480 level...

Buy still @ 465

ملاحظة

Trade Executed @ 465.00

ملاحظة

Great Trade: Sold @ $617 / Bought @ $465 = +152

ملاحظة

Coinbase's bottom was exactly $465.00

ملاحظة

Correction ending soon...

ملاحظة

Part 1 is coming to an end...

New idea coming shortly...

ملاحظة

Primary Wave 3 inbound with HIGH expectations!

ملاحظة

Above: Action update.

Let's Find Primary Wave 3 Levels...

ملاحظة

Primary Wave 3 Target: $841-$697

ملاحظة

MASSIVE SQUEEZE...

SPIKE!

ملاحظة

Reminder: Wave 1's are usually always sloppy....

Spike Anticipated.

ملاحظة

Added STOP...be careful

ملاحظة

The third wave usually begins by the price racing upwards...

ملاحظة

Wave is holding...

ملاحظة

Primary Wave 2 Retraced 100% of Primary Wave 1 = Normal

ملاحظة

all good so far...

ملاحظة

Back to 520...

Possible trade maybe...

ملاحظة

BCH Fork

google.com/amp/s/bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/when-fork-forks-what-you-need-know-bitcoin-cash-goes-war/amp/

Don’t miss it...

ملاحظة

Ultimate Oscillator showing divergence...good sign.

ملاحظة

Maybe the unanticipated extra drop was due from money flowing out the exchanges into cold wallets for the fork

ملاحظة

Fork is probably impacting the Wave count...

Do not anticipate this price range to last long....

ملاحظة

Think we have a complex correction...

ملاحظة

Possible Double ZigZag

ملاحظة

Need to hold Green Spiral...

Spike up anticipated.

Complex Corrections imply strong moves ahead...

ملاحظة

Above: Possible Trade Opportunity between $775-$693

ملاحظة

Crypto markets about to get crazy...

ملاحظة

Elder Force and MACD

Note the Elder Force divergence.

ملاحظة

Weekly: Ultimate Oscillator and OBV

ملاحظة

Above: Added Fib Time

ملاحظة

Above: BCH ABC & BCH SV / BTC

BCH ABC looks like the Winner.

ملاحظة

ccn.com/bitcoin-cash-abc-futures-cross-300-in-hard-fork-aftermath/

ملاحظة

BCH ABC is just chugging along...building stability

ملاحظة

I suspect that gap that was created because of the fork will be closed when trading opens...

ملاحظة

coingeek.com/bitcoin-bch-hash-war-will-decided-sustained-not-temporary-rented-hash-power/

ملاحظة

Therefore, the BCH hash war will not be decided in 1 or 2 days, but over many days and possibly weeks by on-going miner votes with sustained Proof of Work. Until a dominant chain emerges, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet and service providers are advised to remain neutral, and to run a Bitcoin SV node to be prepared for the best interests of users.

ملاحظة

Watch the battle play out here: cash.coin.dance/

ملاحظة

BCHSV is trying to breakout

ملاحظة

Update on SV:

ملاحظة

coingeek.com/gear-main-bitcoin-bch-professional-stress-test-bitcoin-sv/

ملاحظة

Update on ABC:

ملاحظة

Almost looks like both are going to survive for now...

I favor SV chart

ملاحظة

ABC is breaking down...

ملاحظة

During this test, SVPool and BMG Group successfully generated five full 32MB blocks—proof “that there are mining systems on the BCH network today that are ready to mine blocks larger than 32MB,” according to the pre-stress test report. SVPool, a personal initiative of Dr. Craig Wright, and nChain’s BMG Group run Bitcoin SV (Satoshi Vision), the full node implementation designed to fulfill the vision set out by Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper.

ملاحظة

Meanwhile, mining pools that run Bitcoin ABC achieved much smaller blocks during the pre-test: ViaBTC mined a single 8MB block, while most other blocks mined using Bitcoin ABC were at most 1-2MB during the pre-test.

ملاحظة

screenshots.firefox.com/fheFa3s6ht8RLCo7/cash.coin.dance

ملاحظة

Neck and Neck here...

ملاحظة

ABC stalling?

SV gaining?

ملاحظة

screenshots.firefox.com/kW0kT0WMCcnezHUT/twitter.com

ملاحظة

Watching history here...

Blockchain will disrupt almost every sector...

You are already seeing it impacting the banking sector...

In the future services will be paid for in tokens...

ملاحظة

Stabilizing?

ملاحظة

SV is producing substantially larger blocks.

ملاحظة

SV is producing 32MB

ABC is producing 4MB

ملاحظة

Need to produce large blocks for micropayments

ملاحظة

Very Bullish Formation here for ABC!

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave 1 has completed and Sub-Wave 2 of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave is finishing now...

ملاحظة

Target $292...

ملاحظة

Added SV

ملاحظة

Question is can they both survive or does one have to kill the other?

ملاحظة

Wave 1 - Normal

Wave 3 - Breached 1.681 could extend

ملاحظة

If Wave 1 & 3 are Normal look for the 5th to extend.

ملاحظة

SV & ABC seem to have stabilized for now and have convereged.

ملاحظة

Target of 292 almost hit...

ملاحظة

SV could COULD have a massive move here shortly...

Complex Correction...

ملاحظة

ABC vs. SV update:

ملاحظة

ABC Update:

Wave 3 DID extend...

ملاحظة

1.681 breached of S1 & S2

ملاحظة

BCH = ABC + SV

$440ish...

Getting back to where we were before the fork...

ملاحظة

I can’t tell you which chain will survive...I would need a computer science degree for that but can tell you that this will not be decided in days...

ملاحظة

SV update: Micro-Wave Forming?

ملاحظة

Target $140

ملاحظة

Indicators look good.

ملاحظة

SV is still producing blocks far superior than ABC...

Proof of Work lead by ABC still declining

Block Size:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance

POW:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance

ملاحظة

Nodes (Log) : screenshots.firefox.com/LjgXg63dlcguKbjA/cash.coin.dance

ملاحظة

Correct Block Size Screenshot: screenshots.firefox.com/jeTUn8evvIDGLgpY/cash.coin.dance

ملاحظة

It's interesting too that SV controlled almost 70% of Hash power pre-split...

Another good question is, is ABC (Group) renting hash power and how long can they rent hash power for days, weeks, months?

ملاحظة

coingeek.com/think-game-played-jimmy-nguyen-tells-truth-bitcoin-bch-hash-war/

ملاحظة

Looks like we have a HASH WAR

ملاحظة

Transactions on ABC: screenshots.firefox.com/sEjFlqrgQb9J0hi3/jochen-hoenicke.de

Transactions on SV: screenshots.firefox.com/ZC0XAf0btXKRm7cN/jochen-hoenicke.de

ملاحظة

HASH: screenshots.firefox.com/7wMFDT2DUvLXfngv/cash.coin.dance

ملاحظة