Hello,
Following my last BTC EW count, BTC is most likely still in wave 4.
So far it formed possible ABC correction, currently sitting at 0.382 retrace of wave 3 which is quite common area for retrace in "bull" market.
Note that weekly candle will close in around 3 hours from now. There is very strong resistance at 15000$. BTC was not able to close weekly candle above that level since the end of February 2017. I expect some strong movements in next 4 hours.
Back to EW; as already explained in my last post, wave 3 hit almost exact 1:1.618 fib of wave 1 which is most common target for wave 3. Wave 4 still did not broke main support at the top of wave 1. This fact gives us hope that this count could be valid and that we could expect another leg up.
Target for wave 5? - hard to say. First target is 0.618 fib from wave 3 at around 12900$. There are also few strong resistances on the way there (weekly resistance, previous local high resistance etc) but in case we see another impulsive wave up I think 12900$ is possible to reach.
Wave 5 failure; wave 5 failure happens when wave 5 does not overlap wave 3 top. In our case 12350$. It forms "double top" formation with possible inverted HS, which is not good sign for bulls. I will get more into it once we confirm wave 5 bounce.
What if wave 1 top resistance 11000$ doesn't hold?
- In this case I expect huge selloff down to bottom channel resistance, all the way down to 8700$ bottom. Note that we still have that "unfilled gap" on futures chart in this area.
Don't expect straight line down, more like 1-2 week of bleeding in downtrend. -I will get more into it if support doesn't hold.
Other patterns also developed (Adam and Eve double bottom, double bottom, EW resistance)-all of those are based on same level - 11000$ (currently main support to watch)
Check my previous BTC EW count for bigger picture and more
feel free to comment!
Following my last BTC EW count, BTC is most likely still in wave 4.
So far it formed possible ABC correction, currently sitting at 0.382 retrace of wave 3 which is quite common area for retrace in "bull" market.
Note that weekly candle will close in around 3 hours from now. There is very strong resistance at 15000$. BTC was not able to close weekly candle above that level since the end of February 2017. I expect some strong movements in next 4 hours.
Back to EW; as already explained in my last post, wave 3 hit almost exact 1:1.618 fib of wave 1 which is most common target for wave 3. Wave 4 still did not broke main support at the top of wave 1. This fact gives us hope that this count could be valid and that we could expect another leg up.
Target for wave 5? - hard to say. First target is 0.618 fib from wave 3 at around 12900$. There are also few strong resistances on the way there (weekly resistance, previous local high resistance etc) but in case we see another impulsive wave up I think 12900$ is possible to reach.
Wave 5 failure; wave 5 failure happens when wave 5 does not overlap wave 3 top. In our case 12350$. It forms "double top" formation with possible inverted HS, which is not good sign for bulls. I will get more into it once we confirm wave 5 bounce.
What if wave 1 top resistance 11000$ doesn't hold?
- In this case I expect huge selloff down to bottom channel resistance, all the way down to 8700$ bottom. Note that we still have that "unfilled gap" on futures chart in this area.
Don't expect straight line down, more like 1-2 week of bleeding in downtrend. -I will get more into it if support doesn't hold.
Other patterns also developed (Adam and Eve double bottom, double bottom, EW resistance)-all of those are based on same level - 11000$ (currently main support to watch)
Check my previous BTC EW count for bigger picture and more
feel free to comment!