consider large triangle

while it is still possible that the yellow 3 is not yet over it becomes more likely that btc is already in the 4 wave. if we consider the rule of alternation and view the the 2 wave as ABC, it becomes most likely to me that btc will form a boring large triangle over many months.

this triangle would make sense because we will deal with overhead supply from 50-60k buyers and to the downside we meet institutional support from funds, corporations and billionairs looking to allocate capital into crypto to counter central banks and increased gov spending leading to further increase of money supply.

trading the range between 30 and 50k can help us to accumulate more btc before entering the final 5th wave by buying dips and selling into strength until btc is ready to move to new highs

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bitcoin is ready to bounce here > 37300

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ABC as alternative possible, with hitting ma200 weekly in 2022 feb

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after the crash an ending diagonal is forming similar as at the top, this makes me think that the large triangle is still the most likely outcome

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for the bearish case we have a new channel in blue for ABC and the upper line of channel and the white trendline for sym triangle.
the price is still holding above weekly ma10 and ma20 for now which is bullish, but the weekly ma20 has a negative slope which is rather bearish

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btc breaking out of triangle early, looks like we see a year end rally

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if 75k breaks it should go into blow off phase

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after failed breakout it seems to morph into an ascending triangle or rectangle, so we got more time to buy more money

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31-34k looks like a good place to buy more money, people are really scared and it dumped too much too fast, so its likely to bounce