BTCUSDT: Extreme Bear Scenario with Elliot Waves
Well, BTC didn't hold the 200 EMA or previous pivot high from January as I thought, it was a slow bleeding process instead of a quick fall with a knife to catch. Today it was rejected by the 200 EMA again, if we could push through the 200 EMA and start making higher lows, then bulls are coming back. However, if we keep being below 200 EMA and with summer approaching, historically speaking, maybe the price will dump even more. So, if the price keeps dumping, what are some levels from Elliot Wave theories?
If we take Fib-extension from the ATM point 0 to the swing low point 1 to the swing high point 2, the 1.618 extension is at 29k, which was the lowest low a few days ago at point 3. Also as mentioned in the previous idea below that point 2 retraced to around 0.65 level as well. So, did we just finish the wave 1-2-3 out of the 5 waves of this bear run? If we draw a Fib-retracement from point 2 to point 3, we can see that the 0.382 level is at 41-42k. which was the 200 EMA/January pivot high/strong support mentioned in the last idea, 0.382 level is also a very common pullback level for the 4th wave especially if wave 3 went all the way to 1.618. Thus, this 0.382 level can be a very strong resistance and also possibly our 4th wave. If this is the case, then let's take a Fib-extension from point 2 to point 3 to point 4, we get 0.65 level at 23k ish and 1 to 1 level at 12k ish, one is around 2017 high and one is around the high in last August.
RSI is also having lower highs since January, so maybe that's also a signal of more drops. However, if we pull back above 42k/200 EMA/January pivot high, or even better we pull back above 47k/point 1/previous swing low, then this bear 5 wave is not valid anymore, and I personally will sell everything and start loading for ATH again.
If we take Fib-extension from the ATM point 0 to the swing low point 1 to the swing high point 2, the 1.618 extension is at 29k, which was the lowest low a few days ago at point 3. Also as mentioned in the previous idea below that point 2 retraced to around 0.65 level as well. So, did we just finish the wave 1-2-3 out of the 5 waves of this bear run? If we draw a Fib-retracement from point 2 to point 3, we can see that the 0.382 level is at 41-42k. which was the 200 EMA/January pivot high/strong support mentioned in the last idea, 0.382 level is also a very common pullback level for the 4th wave especially if wave 3 went all the way to 1.618. Thus, this 0.382 level can be a very strong resistance and also possibly our 4th wave. If this is the case, then let's take a Fib-extension from point 2 to point 3 to point 4, we get 0.65 level at 23k ish and 1 to 1 level at 12k ish, one is around 2017 high and one is around the high in last August.
RSI is also having lower highs since January, so maybe that's also a signal of more drops. However, if we pull back above 42k/200 EMA/January pivot high, or even better we pull back above 47k/point 1/previous swing low, then this bear 5 wave is not valid anymore, and I personally will sell everything and start loading for ATH again.
