Wow are they really...

١٠ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

Are they really going to hit us with an expanding triangle to finish this corrective wave off? Guess don't get too comfortable for too long either side.

Scratch that last idea, my bad had an amateur moment. This could be off too, but its most probable that I can see at least from here.

Oops.

١١ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Based on the ratios of the realized legs and their subwaves, I have some near term price predictions that are likely to happen if leg (d) of this setup unfolds:

- Expecting pop to around 406-408 (point target 406.91) early next week to test the bottom of last week's channel - that means it would fill the gap up and continue, likely trapping some bulls. Such a move would be sub-wave ((b)) of leg (d).

- Probability favors rejection at the bottom of previous channel around 406.91 (note* this is the level where it broke-down on 6/9). Such a rejection would trigger a rapid sell-off to complete sub-wave ((c)) of leg (d) around 362-372 (point target 364.49).

- The logic behind these projected, relatively large swings - from a market environment perspective - would be FOMC next week and, potentially, drop in BTCUSD to around 22k to end it's corrective wave (there is high correlation between SPY and BTC recently, as I'm sure you have noticed). I will post an updated chart with expected time to initial targets before the end of this weekend, but for now I would expect quick pop early next week and then downside after the FOMC mid-week.

To summarize initial expectations for this scenario:
- bounce beginning Monday 6/13 to the 406-408 level by 6/15
- rejection from 406-408 leading to sharp downside action to the 362-372 range (time for that to unfold TBD, will communicate my expectations there based on my time series model).

Regards.

١١ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Based on the trendline marking the bottom of potential expanded triangle, the downside move to complete leg (d) around 364.49 could unfold by June 29th. This is conditional based on if and when the projected subwave ((b)) of leg (d), mentioned above, occurs... Interesting, because I was seeing June 29th as a critical date for big move in my initial projection (linked idea). No choice but to call this as I see it, initial bullish expected setup was invalidated in a very obvious way last Friday - the next big move is pointing down following deadcat bounce.

This isn't immediately appealing to me because I am net long, but I will take the opportunity, if given, to reposition to net short. I'll be looking for rejection around 406-408 to make this change (or if it gets rejected from gap fill). If this setup plays out it opens the door to swing this both ways, and that is a motivating thought.

١١ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

I'll be adjusting the projected trajectory in next post. This was just illustrative to show the idea when the pattern initially occurred to me, so don't take the time between swings literally as they are on this chart. The time between swings are what I am calculating currently, the potential legs {(d), B = (e), and C = (Y)} will be farther distance apart than shown.

١٥ يونيو ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

load them new bars... see my latest idea for update and expected path/levels from here