I like buying THBKRW given the latest contractionary data from China which will keep KRW on offer. Given the softening outlook in Asia, and with the USDTHB longs I like buying THBKRW as a hedge to the portfolio and isolate the dollar.
Firstly, Thailand is receiving a lot of inflows as gold rises, it becomes fair to say Thai assets are driven by risk sentiment. Defensive flows continue to like Thailand's strong BOP with a current account surplus via Tourism. With the late cycle environment, tourism is forecasted to slow down (importantly Chinese tourism slowing will weigh heavy).
The risk to this thesis is from US & China finding a positive resolution.
Firstly, Thailand is receiving a lot of inflows as gold rises, it becomes fair to say Thai assets are driven by risk sentiment. Defensive flows continue to like Thailand's strong BOP with a current account surplus via Tourism. With the late cycle environment, tourism is forecasted to slow down (importantly Chinese tourism slowing will weigh heavy).
The risk to this thesis is from US & China finding a positive resolution.
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تعليق:
Would like to see the lows hold here, risk tomorrow heightened with any resolution on the US-China trade front bad for bulls.
