Treasuries 2023 updated outook

Wave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3.

I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these observations, here we have out timing estimates for w5 completion:

0.382 - June 6 (too fast.. 0.382 ratios are rare, but still possible)
0.5 - August 15
0.618 - October 23
0.786 - January 31, 2024

So, realistically, we are going to see Treasuries bottom out in September-October. By that time the market will achieve the "impossible four":
- 10Y paper will hit >10%
- SPX at 1500
- EURUSD at 0.75
- USDJPY at 100