S&P500 Elliot wave Update, Last bearish count
So far all my prediction for the bearish count of this market got invalidated.
today the market closed just above the invalidation level of the bearish model so the impulsive wave is gonna unfold probably completely. the target will be the invalidation level for the big triangle we are watching. if that level gets broken then there wont be any bearish model.
All the technical indicators and wave counts suggest that market should crash but it has not happen so far.
today the market closed just above the invalidation level of the bearish model so the impulsive wave is gonna unfold probably completely. the target will be the invalidation level for the big triangle we are watching. if that level gets broken then there wont be any bearish model.
All the technical indicators and wave counts suggest that market should crash but it has not happen so far.
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30 minchart
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5min chart count
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e broke the invalidation level for downtrend another time!
but it doesn't mean it will go for wave 5 immediately . the current up move more looks like a corrective wave . so I will wait more for the waves to unfold more
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there is no force for wave 5 to happen, if it doesn't happen the we will finish with a C wave and it is a valid downtrend count
but it doesn't mean it will go for wave 5 immediately . the current up move more looks like a corrective wave . so I will wait more for the waves to unfold more
we
there is no force for wave 5 to happen, if it doesn't happen the we will finish with a C wave and it is a valid downtrend count
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currently I can not 100% confirm that wave 4 is over.
wait .
all my counts are bearish right now.
wait .
all my counts are bearish right now.
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it seems that we are having a small wave 5 and that should it be it
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4 and 5 and then over???
let see
I have been waiting for this for weeks.
let see
I have been waiting for this for weeks.
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daily chart, everything makes seance to see big big bearish move
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the market has unfold every single wave, it has not even missed a penny hahaha
this is the last wave. I am expecting a strong reversal.
lets see.
this is the last wave. I am expecting a strong reversal.
lets see.
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no more wave 5! i didn't expect that to be honest! some people call the last wave a short ending 5 but I am not sure about the count so the counts are now changed
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the new wave count:
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sorry my bad,I check with the book, i looks like an ending diagonal as we had a sharp reversal
so the wave count is still valid
so the wave count is still valid
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so what I assumed as wave 5 (ending diagonal ) was not the wave 5. it seems that we are still in the wave 4 correction
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all, as we are still in wave 4 you can expect a long correction, don't expect the market to crash soon. also we need a wave 5. this also can appear a short truncated wave 5.
so the worse case we will see another uptrend to make a new high.
I am not considering a bullish count util we hit the invalidation level for the triangle
so the worse case we will see another uptrend to make a new high.
I am not considering a bullish count util we hit the invalidation level for the triangle
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first, I have not concidered the wave extension model and it is quite impossible but :
if we assume this is wave 4 then:
1- the wave 4 usually retraces 38%-50% here as you can see you have touched 38%
2- wave 4 is usually long and frustrating and usually creates a triangle or other complex structure
so I am not expecting the market to jump up crazy soon,
see this picture
if we assume this is wave 4 then:
1- the wave 4 usually retraces 38%-50% here as you can see you have touched 38%
2- wave 4 is usually long and frustrating and usually creates a triangle or other complex structure
so I am not expecting the market to jump up crazy soon,
see this picture
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we might see something like this
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also all my analysis are based on the fact that we will not touch the triangle invalidation level
if this happen my assumption for an ending diagonal was wrong.
if this happen my assumption for an ending diagonal was wrong.
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also the trend line method also support my assumption that we are in wave 4
I can only confirm the end of the Impulsive wave if this channel gets broken
I can only confirm the end of the Impulsive wave if this channel gets broken
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I think wave 5 should end somewhere near where I have drown. as it conforms the trend channel method and fibo ratio the next fibo line invalidates the whole assumption so I am ignoring it
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also RSI inverse method suggest the following target level
so I am expecting the price to reverse in the box
so I am expecting the price to reverse in the box
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also I forgot one more senario
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so ABC or 12345?
the most difficult thing in Elliott wave theory is to predict the end of wave 5. this can also be a possiblity! and then a reversal! the wave 5 might also get extended but I don't see much chance for that
the most difficult thing in Elliott wave theory is to predict the end of wave 5. this can also be a possiblity! and then a reversal! the wave 5 might also get extended but I don't see much chance for that
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my top scenarios are:
1- a triangle for wave 4 then wave 5 then crash
2- a short wave 5 and then crash (as i published just now)
3- a long wave 5 up to the invalidation level
4- a bullish count which I have not considered yet
1- a triangle for wave 4 then wave 5 then crash
2- a short wave 5 and then crash (as i published just now)
3- a long wave 5 up to the invalidation level
4- a bullish count which I have not considered yet
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if we are gonna have a wave 4 now this will be the possible reversal point
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I never use moving averages or any-types of indicators expert RSI but not it seem the Elliote wave sell confirmation level also matches with 200 and 50 sma breaks as well.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.
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sorry for type hahah
I never use moving averages or any-types of indicators except RSI but it seem that Elliote wave sell confirmation level also matches with 200 and 50 sma breaks levels as well.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.
I never use moving averages or any-types of indicators except RSI but it seem that Elliote wave sell confirmation level also matches with 200 and 50 sma breaks levels as well.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.
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now something appeared that attracted my attention. is that it? I cant promis Until we see the wave 3 starts to go down
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has not broke the trend channel yet , there is chance for triangle as well
A triangle with the wave E as a triangle . 100% text book. I don't know why it doesn't crash !