Shorting Oil futures - Wave/4B down
Correction 4A of wave-3 finished @ $34.66
I expect a double top to form as shown on chart or at least an H&S.
Compile a 3 contract short position:- half of the position in the <$33-$34 zone> & the other half in <$34-$34.6> zone.
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.10
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.40
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.70
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.00
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.30
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.60
Targets 700 pts away @ 50% of the ending diagonal of wave-4A = < $25.5-$26.25> = (correction of wave-C in ending diagonal).
Place Buy stops for 3 contracts at $35 to hedge the position instead of placing SLs. The total Risk for the position is thus -$1150 / contract on average, if the hedges open & -$3450 for all three contracts, on open hedging.
-$3450 equates to 17.5% Risk on an $ 20000 Account. If the Account is $ 10000, half the position size to 1 1/2 contracts divided respectively at shown entries.
There is a possibility on breakout of negative corona virus / unlock feed back for this wave 4B to turn into an impulsive- 5th instead to truncate somewhere below $10.
Take Good Care & Stay safe
I expect a double top to form as shown on chart or at least an H&S.
Compile a 3 contract short position:- half of the position in the <$33-$34 zone> & the other half in <$34-$34.6> zone.
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.10
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.40
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 33.70
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.00
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.30
place limit sell 1/2 contract @ $ 34.60
Targets 700 pts away @ 50% of the ending diagonal of wave-4A = < $25.5-$26.25> = (correction of wave-C in ending diagonal).
Place Buy stops for 3 contracts at $35 to hedge the position instead of placing SLs. The total Risk for the position is thus -$1150 / contract on average, if the hedges open & -$3450 for all three contracts, on open hedging.
-$3450 equates to 17.5% Risk on an $ 20000 Account. If the Account is $ 10000, half the position size to 1 1/2 contracts divided respectively at shown entries.
There is a possibility on breakout of negative corona virus / unlock feed back for this wave 4B to turn into an impulsive- 5th instead to truncate somewhere below $10.
Take Good Care & Stay safe
تعليق:
$33.1 & $33.4 &33.7 filled so far.
تعليق:
$33.1 & $33.4 &33.7 & $34 filled so far.
Position Average $33.55
Add Buy stop for 1 1/2 contract at $35 Target 38.9 (To fill the gap showing on charts)
This addition is a "zero hedge" policy, in case price breaks above $35 & continues on a bull run targeting the gap at $40. In that case enough money would be made by the 1 1/2 additional long contracts to enable liquidation of the position as a whole <$33.5 shorts vs $35 longs> at NO loss to the account.
Position Average $33.55
Add Buy stop for 1 1/2 contract at $35 Target 38.9 (To fill the gap showing on charts)
This addition is a "zero hedge" policy, in case price breaks above $35 & continues on a bull run targeting the gap at $40. In that case enough money would be made by the 1 1/2 additional long contracts to enable liquidation of the position as a whole <$33.5 shorts vs $35 longs> at NO loss to the account.
تعليق:
all limit shorts filled to average holdings short at $ 33.85
Raise TP to $ 26.80 = $ 7/contract
Raise TP to $ 26.80 = $ 7/contract
تعليق:
Price made $ 32.16
Take SL to B/E for all short holdings (break even inclusive comm costs should be ~ $ 33.80)
Remove all buy stops / protection hedges
TP remains the same @ $ 26.80
There could be a bounce at the H&S neckline <31.30-30.80>. Its discretionary to take profits there & reload shorts in the Right shoulder of the formation.
Take SL to B/E for all short holdings (break even inclusive comm costs should be ~ $ 33.80)
Remove all buy stops / protection hedges
TP remains the same @ $ 26.80
There could be a bounce at the H&S neckline <31.30-30.80>. Its discretionary to take profits there & reload shorts in the Right shoulder of the formation.
تعليق:
Close all holdings (Take profit) at market $ 31.35
= $ 2.5 / Standard contract
This should amount to $ 3750 (1 1/2 contracts) on an $10000 account & $ 7500 (3 contracts) on an $ 20000 account.
= $ 2.5 / Standard contract
This should amount to $ 3750 (1 1/2 contracts) on an $10000 account & $ 7500 (3 contracts) on an $ 20000 account.