MQP INFINITE REGRESSION INTERMEDIATE #009-3 DETAILED CHEAT SHEET

SUMMARY - So #008-4 path (slower and lower breakout) was eliminated at end of day on Nov 10th. With that solved, makes this path (same as #008-5 and #009-2, just refined and detailed) is now 75%+ favorite vs all other paths combined (bull/bear/otherwise). This path is the gray high light above with the boxes. There is a 17% chance of a higher drift, marked by the very light blue path above. There is a 5% chance of something unexpected. For intermediate traders, TAKE BOX 1 ENTRY. For back to back 7:1 option trades wait for boxes 2 and 3, this part is unclear right now, read more below.

DETAILS? - First, #008-4, -5, and #009-2 links are below. If you are new to this, please read them for background. Second, please understand that this situation is very unique one with odds stacked very much in our favor. It does not get much better than a scenario like this. If you aren't trading options, TAKE THE FIRST ENTRY AROUND 1830-1840. Why? Because price can still drift 1 channel higher (odds of that about 1 in 6).

So, the two blue lines are same triangle since #008-1 and #008-2. The two red lines make the most short term channel since 1750s. The four black diagonal lines make the intermediate channel that dictate price through 12/20. Of the the 8 vertical bolded lines, the two reds are PPI, light blue is FOMC minutres, gray is CPI, black is NFP, yellow is new moon, orange is CPI, and blue is FOMC December meeting. What is unclear about this chart are boxes 2 and 3. As it stands for the first option trade, these are two entry points: box 2 is 25% entry and box 3 is 75% of entry. This is because it is impossible to forecast better than 45% which box will be lower here. Momentum odds favor lower box 2. However, there is a new moon RIGHT AFTER NFP, which makes me think December 03 can have an 1820 low vs 1835-1840 for November (example like 7/31 and 8/01 2019). So the first part of entry should be on November 30th, and the second should be December 3rd after NFP. My vehicle of choice Is GLD call options expiring 12/31 , $2 out of the money (i.e. if GLD is 172, buy 174 call; if it's 174 buy 176 call). Box 4 is exit for first options trade (if you aren't in options, do nothing here and wait for box 7), box 5 is entry for second options trade PRIOR TO DECEMBER FOMC. Box 7 is exit for all longs.

All else being equal (meaning if gold is same price on 12/03 as 11/30, 12/31 options would be 10% cheaper on 12/03). If it wasn't such a unique situation, it would 0-20% 11/30, and 80-100% on 12/03. Keep in mind that this is an attempt to execute a 7:1 trade then use half of those returns on a second 7:1 trade (returning roughly 25:1 of first entry size).

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NOTE: I always use regressions to map price FIRST, then add the events in afterwards. I do NOT however, try to coordinate them to create an "event-driven" forecast. I have found it more useful to LEAVE IT ALONE AND UPDATE FORECAST W/ RESPECT PRICE ACTION ONLY.

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NOTE 2: For first option trade, it is entirely fine to wait for December 03 entry post NFP. I might just do that personally. This will get cleared up on weekend of 11/27-28.

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NOTE 3: Another reason for 1820 low is I DO NOT SEE A TAG OF THE TRIANGLE LINES PRIOR TO 11/22, second top coming before 11/25. In this triangle formation, price almost always "checks down" to the triangle. However I am not sure this is still true if it is a "break lower first, then reverse back up" type of a triangle".

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NOTE 4: If you zoom out, you will see what I mean by "break lower first triangle".

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NOTE 5: PLEASE LIKE FOR SUPPORT! This has been brought to you by 6 years of sweat, tears, and legit data-mining. Have a happy thanksgiving and get ready for an early X-mas.