Trade Idea Setting Up Into Support Santa Rally

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I am positioning myself to take part in the year-end rally and the December 18th FOMC. I can smell another 8% rally coming.





I will see how price gets into the support zone and when it starts holding, I will get in. The stacked highs are the target. The triple top over 45,000. I have a feeling the market will close 2024 over the 45,000 level for headlines.

The two biggest clues for this trade Idea is the peak formation low and the creeping trend. Creeping trends are used as order flow for the reversal back up. Once all the shorts start covering, a squeeze happens. What I am looking for is the creeping trend's capitulation into support.

There is probably 2000 ticks of upside potential here.

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ملاحظة

I believe I may have been wrong on the election candle being an exhaustion candle and instead may be the start of the move higher in this long bull trend.



My long-term view of the Dow Jones and how the November Monthly candle broke out

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ملاحظة

My FOMC support levels were July, September and November. The July level has held and no longer an area to return to. The election rallied off of September's FOMC level. Now, price is mean reverting around November's level with December's soon to be released. How will the last FOMC level look like in 2024?

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تم فتح الصفقة

I got filled today near the end of the day at 43,947. I only placed 1/3 of my position ahead of the FOMC due to not knowing if the low will hold or not. I plan on adding more as it is going in my favor.

A part of me wants to hold it for 150,000 as the bull run is picking up steam. Price is in the third box, approaching the middle of the third box. Once price can break out of the middle of the box, the next target is 68,000 or the top of the third box



Below is a chart of the 3 month. The way I came up with these boxes and am using them as range expansions is taking the high and the low of the 2000-2008 Range. Marked with arrows is when price breaks out of one box and starts the grind in the next. You can see that the last two breakouts was due to elections.



Here you can see how the covid drop first peaked out exactly at the box high and dumped down to exactly the box middle. The 2020 election candle broke out into the next box. 2022 pulled back to the 50% of that candle and retested the bottom of the third box. As you can see, price has yet to hit the middle of the third box at 46,650.

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ملاحظة

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تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

I ended up closing the trade on the FOMC dump for a scratch after I was up 200 or so ticks. I only had 1/3 of my original position on anyway just for this exact reason. I knew that this trade was a trying to catch the bottom type and so I was willing to place a feeler trade and add more later if it started going back up. I was wrong on this idea and the market still had plans for more selling. I can't argue with the market and so I must get out and stand aside. I am still long term bullish. For now, on my long-term account, I will sit out and wait. Because I am not sure what the market is trying to do right now, it is best for me to just wait. I have no qualms with being wrong and not knowing what is happening sometimes. I don't always read price correctly and take losses.