Bitcoin Macro Fair Value [Structural]

//version=6
indicator("Bitcoin Macro Fair Value [Structural]", overlay=true)

// --- Model Coefficients (Derived from Python Analysis 2019-2025) ---
intercept = input.float(3.156434, "Intercept")
c_m2 = input.float(0.132827, "Real M2 Coef")
c_corp = input.float(0.742593, "Corp Spread Coef")
c_hy = input.float(-0.617968, "HY Spread Coef")
c_dxy = input.float(0.009772, "DXY Coef")
c_real30 = input.float(0.713311, "Real 30Y Coef")
c_be30 = input.float(-1.059273, "Breakeven 30Y Coef")
c_slope = input.float(0.402220, "Slope 10Y-2Y Coef")

// --- Data Fetching ---
m2 = request.security("FRED:M2SL", "M", close)
cpi = request.security("FRED:CPIAUCSL", "M", close)
real_m2 = m2 / cpi

corp = request.security("FRED:BAMLC0A0CM", "D", close)
hy = request.security("FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2", "D", close)
dxy = request.security("TVC:DXY", "D", close)

real30 = request.security("FRED:DFII30", "D", close)
nom30 = request.security("FRED:DGS30", "D", close)
be30 = nom30 - real30

nom10 = request.security("FRED:DGS10", "D", close)
nom2 = request.security("FRED:DGS2", "D", close)
slope = nom10 - nom2

// --- Calculation ---
log_fv = intercept + (c_m2 * real_m2) + (c_corp * corp) + (c_hy * hy) + (c_dxy * dxy) + (c_real30 * real30) + (c_be30 * be30) + (c_slope * slope)
fair_value = math.exp(log_fv)

plot(fair_value, "Macro Fair Value", color=color.new(color.blue, 0), linewidth=2)