SFI Follow Trend Level 1 ( SFI Academy )“SFI Trading Level 1 Indicator is a proprietary indicator used by SFI Academy for its students, in combination with SFI Academy’s exclusive capital management toolset.”
Educational
Long Position (Manual Setup)BINANCE:BTCUSDT
This script is for long position setup manually....
Just enter the following data ......
1. higher entry price
2. lower entry price
3. stop loss price
4. targets ( up to 5 targets)
5- extra targets ( up to 3 extra targets)
then you will have the long position draw in the chart with the trade summary including risk and reward percentage.
Kijun Sen Standard Deviation | QuantLapse SystemsOverview
The Kijun Sen Standard Deviation indicator by QuantLapse Systems is a volatility-aware trend-following framework that combines the structural equilibrium of the Kijun Sen (基準線) with statistically adaptive standard deviation bands.
By anchoring trend detection to market structure and confirming direction through volatility expansion, the indicator delivers a cleaner, more reliable regime classification across varying market conditions.
Rather than reacting to short-term noise, the system focuses on identifying statistically justified trend phases , making it well-suited for disciplined, rule-based trading.
Technical Composition, Calculation, Key Components & Features
📌 Kijun Sen (基準線) – Structural Trend Baseline
Calculated as the midpoint between the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined period.
Represents market equilibrium and structural balance rather than short-term momentum.
Naturally adapts to expanding and contracting price ranges.
Provides a stable baseline for regime detection and volatility validation.
Acts as the anchor for deviation bands and persistent trend-state logic.
Unlike fast or reactive moving averages, the Kijun Sen emphasizes price structure and equilibrium , making it especially effective for higher-quality trend confirmation.
📌 Volatility Adjustment – Standard Deviation Bands
Standard deviation is calculated over a configurable lookback to measure current price dispersion.
Upper and lower envelopes are formed by applying a deviation multiplier to the Kijun Sen.
Band width expands during volatility surges and contracts during consolidation.
Creates proportional, volatility-aware thresholds instead of static offsets.
Visually represents market energy through expanding and compressing channels.
These adaptive bands ensure that trend signals only occur when volatility supports directional movement.
📌 Trend Signal & Regime Calculation
Bullish Trend is confirmed when price closes above the upper deviation band.
Bearish Trend is confirmed when price closes below the lower deviation band.
Once established, the trend state persists until an opposing volatility break occurs.
This persistence reduces whipsaws and improves regime stability.
Trend state is reinforced with color-coded lines, envelopes, and background shading.
This volatility-confirmed persistence model is visible in the chart, where trends remain intact through minor pullbacks and only flip on decisive expansion.
How It Works in Trading
✅ Volatility-Confirmed Trend Detection – Requires expansion beyond deviation bands.
✅ Noise Suppression – Filters low-energy price movement within volatility envelopes.
✅ Regime Persistence – Maintains trend state until statistical invalidation.
✅ Immediate Visual Context – Direction, strength, and transitions are clear at a glance.
Visual Representation
Trend signals are displayed directly on price using both line and background context:
🟢 Green / Teal Kijun & Envelope → Confirmed bullish regime.
🔴 Red / Pink Kijun & Envelope → Confirmed bearish regime.
Semi-transparent band fill visualizes volatility expansion and compression.
Buy and Sell labels appear only on confirmed regime transitions.
The lower panel includes:
Strategy equity curve based on trend exposure.
Buy & Hold equity for performance comparison.
Background regime shading synchronized with trend state.
Features and User Inputs
The Kijun Sen Standard Deviation framework offers a focused yet powerful set of configurable inputs:
Kijun Sen Length – Controls structural trend sensitivity.
Standard Deviation Controls – Adjust lookback length and multiplier for regime strictness.
Backtesting & Date Filters – Define evaluation periods and starting conditions.
Display Options – Toggle labels, equity curves, and background shading.
Color Customization – Fully configurable buy/sell colors for trends and equity curves.
These controls allow users to balance responsiveness, stability, and clarity without overfitting.
Practical Applications
The Kijun Sen Standard Deviation indicator is designed for traders who prioritize structure, volatility confirmation, and regime awareness.
Primary Trend Filtering – Identify and stay aligned with dominant market direction.
Volatility-Aware Trend Following – Participate only when price expansion confirms intent.
Risk-Managed Exposure – Avoid chop during compression and transitional phases.
Systematic Strategy Development – Use as a regime engine or higher-timeframe filter.
Performance Evaluation – Compare trend-following equity against buy-and-hold benchmarks.
This framework bridges classical Ichimoku structure with modern statistical validation.
Conclusion
The Kijun Sen Standard Deviation indicator by QuantLapse Systems represents a refined evolution of Ichimoku-based trend analysis.
By integrating the structural equilibrium of the Kijun Sen with adaptive standard deviation confirmation, the system delivers clearer regime classification, reduced noise, and more reliable trend participation.
Rather than attempting to predict price, it focuses on confirming when trends are statistically justified .
Who should use Kijun Sen Standard Deviation:
📊 Trend-Following Traders – Stay aligned with dominant market structure.
⚡ Momentum & Swing Traders – Enter only on volatility-backed expansions.
🤖 Systematic & Algorithmic Traders – Ideal as a regime filter or trend-state engine.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Disclaimer: All trading involves risk, and no indicator can guarantee profitability.
Strategic Advice: Always backtest thoroughly, optimize parameters responsibly, and align settings with your timeframe, asset class, and risk tolerance before live deployment.
Body Close Continuity & failure Backtesting @MaxMaseratiThis indicator, is a highly advanced institutional-grade tool designed to track the "lifespan" of a trend based on Body Close (BC) sequences.
Unlike basic indicators that just show direction, this script analyzes the structural integrity of a trend by monitoring how many candles continue the move before a "Touch" (retest) or a "Break" (failure) occurs.
The Continuity & Failure Stats indicator tracks sequences of Bullish Body Closes (BuBC) and Bearish Body Closes (BeBC). It measures three critical phases: Building (pure momentum), Touching (price retesting the low/high of the sequence), and Resumption (price continuing the trend after a retest). It provides a statistical distribution of how long these "buildings" typically last before failing, allowing traders to know exactly when a trend is overextended.
This comprehensive analysis blends the statistical breakdown of the Continuity & Failure Stats indicator to provide a deep understanding of the structural momentum for the S&P 500 E-mini (ES1!) on a 4-hour timeframe.
1. Extensive Table Breakdown
A. Building Distribution (Left Table): The Fatigue Gauge
This table acts as a histogram of momentum, tracking the "Building Count"—the number of consecutive candles closing in a trend without price returning to its origin.
Count Column: Represents the streak length (e.g., 1, 2, or 3 candles).
Touch Column: Shows how many times a streak was interrupted by a retest ("touch") but remained structurally intact.
Break Column: Counts total structural failures where price closed beyond the sequence's anchor.
Data Insight: For BuBC, 92 sequences reached Count 1, but only 28 remained by Count 4. This reveals a steep momentum decay after the 3rd candle, establishing a "Statistical Wall" where only 2 sequences in history reached a count of 9.
B. MMM Summary Stats (Top Right): The Mathematical DNA
This table provides the "Expected Value" and behavior of a trend over the lookback period.
Avg Building (2.39 for BuBC): On average, a bullish move lasts ~2.4 candles of pure momentum before a retest or reversal occurs.
Avg Touches (0.8): This low number indicates "clean" trends that rarely wobble back to retest levels multiple times before reaching a conclusion.
Avg R Cycles (0.55): This suggests that once a bullish trend is interrupted, it only successfully resumes its momentum about half the time.
Max R Count (1): Typically, once a trend is "touched," it only manages one more push before failing.
C. Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Quick Stats (Bottom Right): Trend Weight
This compares the 4H chart against other layers of the market to identify "global" alignment.
Sample Comparison: There are 3,594 tracked BuBC sequences on the 4H compared to only 142 on the Weekly chart.
Fractal Law: The Avg Building (2.4) is consistent across several timeframes, implying that the "Rule of Three" (momentum fading after 3 candles) is a fractal characteristic of this asset.
2. Table Comparison: Synthesizing the Data
To trade effectively, you must compare Distribution (timing) against Summary Stats (averages):
Continuity vs. Failure: The Summary Stats show an average building of 2.39. When checking the Distribution table at Count 2, the "Break" count (58) is already high relative to the "Total". This confirms that the risk of failure increases exponentially the moment you exceed the average.
Momentum vs. Mean Reversion: Distribution tells you when a trend is "tired". If the 4H is at a "Building Count 4" (statistically overextended) while the Weekly chart is at "Building Count 1" (fresh momentum), you may choose to prioritize the higher timeframe's strength despite the local overextension.
3. Strategic Summary & Application
This indicator proves that market momentum follows a predictable "Building" cycle rather than an infinite streak.
The "Rule of Three" for ES1! 4H:
The Entry Zone (Momentum Start): The most profitable entries occur at Building Count 1. Statistically, you have a high probability of reaching a count of 2 or 3.
The Exit Zone (Momentum Limit): Take profits or tighten stops at Count 3. The data shows the sample size drops by nearly 50% between Count 3 and Count 4.
The "Touch" Rule (Retest Reliability): If price returns to the sequence low (a "Touch"), do not expect a massive continuation. The Max R Count of 1 tells us that resumptions are usually short-lived.
Danger Zone: Entering at Building Count 4 or higher is statistically dangerous, as the "Break" probability significantly outweighs the "Touch" or continuation probability.
Long Short Trading System With TableSmart Trading System Pro is an advanced TradingView indicator designed for precision and clarity.
It combines Order Blocks, Liquidity Zones, EMA trend alignment, MACD, RSI, Volume, and ATR-based risk management to generate high-quality LONG / SHORT signals.
🔹 Clear trade direction
🔹 Smart entry, stop-loss & multi-level take-profit
🔹 Automatic risk/reward & leverage calculation
🔹 Clean visual dashboard for fast decision-making
Built for traders who value structure, confirmation, and risk control.
Best suited for crypto, forex, and indices on all timeframes.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and outcomes.
Fundamental Dashboard [Standalone]Overview
The Fundamental Strength Dashboard is a streamlined utility designed to evaluate the fundamental health of a stock directly on your chart. Instead of relying solely on price action, this indicator fetches real-time financial data to assess profitability, valuation, and financial stability.
It aggregates five core financial metrics into a single "Fundamental Score" (0-5) and displays a clear rating (Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, or Weak/Sell) in a customizable dashboard table.
How It Works
The script analyzes the following 5 Key Fundamental Metrics. For a stock to receive a "point" for a specific metric, it must meet the criteria defined in your settings:
Net Income (Profitability): Checks if the company is actually profitable (Net Income > 0).
EPS (Earnings Per Share): Ensures the company has positive Earnings Per Share (TTM).
P/E Ratio (Valuation): Checks if the stock is valued reasonably compared to your maximum threshold (default: < 45).
Debt-to-Equity (Leverage): Analyzes financial risk. Lower is better (default: < 0.5).
ROE (Efficiency): Measures how effectively management uses equity to generate profit (default: > 15%).
The Scoring System
The indicator calculates a cumulative score based on how many of the above criteria are met:
Score 5/5 → STRONG BUY: The stock meets all profitability, valuation, and stability criteria.
Score 4/5 → BUY: The stock misses only one criterion but is otherwise fundamentally sound.
Score 0-3 → WEAK / SELL: The stock fails multiple fundamental checks (e.g., negative earnings, high debt, or overvaluation).
Features & Customization
Every trader has different risk appetites and sector preferences. You can fully customize the thresholds in the Settings menu:
Max P/E Threshold: Adjust this based on the sector (e.g., Tech stocks typically have higher P/Es than Utilities).
Min ROE %: Set your requirement for management efficiency.
Max Debt/Equity: Tighten or loosen leverage requirements.
Visuals: Change the table position (Top Right, Bottom Right, etc.) and color scheme to match your chart theme.
How to Use
Add the indicator to your chart.
Open the Settings (Gear icon).
Adjust the Dynamic Thresholds to fit the sector you are trading.
Look at the dashboard on the chart to see a snapshot of the stock's fundamental health.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It relies on third-party financial data provided by TradingView, which may occasionally be missing or delayed. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions.
Least Squares Moving Average Zero Lag LeadLSMA Zero‑Lag + Lead Indicator
This indicator is a modified Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) designed to reduce lag and optionally introduce a controlled forward‑leaning (lead) component. It is intended to be used either directly on price or as a smoother, more responsive input source for other indicators such as RSI, MACD, or regime filters.
1. What LSMA Is Doing
LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) fits a straight‑line regression to the last N bars and evaluates that line at the current bar. Unlike simple or exponential averages, LSMA implicitly models trend direction and slope, which makes it more responsive during directional moves.
2. Zero‑Lag Adjustment
The zero‑lag version applies a simple error‑correction technique:
ZL = 2 × LSMA − LSMA(previous)
This cancels part of the inherent regression delay, producing a smoother line that reacts faster to turns while remaining stable in trends.
3. Lead Component (Optional)
On top of the zero‑lag LSMA, a slope‑based lead is added:
Lead = ZL + k × (ZL − ZL(previous))
Here, the recent slope is projected forward by a user‑controlled factor (k). This does not predict price, but it shifts the average slightly in the direction of current momentum, improving responsiveness for signal generation.
4. Why This Helps RSI and Similar Indicators
RSI and many oscillators operate on raw price changes, which can be noisy and lag‑prone. Feeding RSI with LSMA ZL or LSMA ZL + Lead instead of raw close price:
• Reduces noise without excessive smoothing
• Aligns RSI swings with underlying trend direction
• Improves timing of overbought/oversold transitions
• Reduces late signals after sharp reversals
In practice, this produces an RSI that reacts faster in trends but stays calmer in chop.
5. Practical Usage Tips
• Use LSMA ZL as a clean, low‑lag replacement for price in oscillators
• Add small lead values (0.5–1.0) only if earlier signals are needed
• Avoid high lead values in choppy markets
• Combine with regime or volatility filters for best results
This indicator is best thought of as a signal‑conditioning layer rather than a standalone trading system.
Aroon (Any Source)Aroon (Any Source)
Overview
This indicator is an enhanced version of the classic Aroon Oscillator. It measures trend dominance based on the recency of highs and lows, with added flexibility to operate on any chosen source series and an optional price-scaling mechanism based on VWAP distance.
What the Indicator Does
The Aroon Oscillator compares how recently the most recent high and low occurred within a lookback window. The result is a bounded oscillator that indicates whether buyers or sellers are currently dominant.
This version adds: - Ability to run Aroon on any source - Optional smoothing to reduce noise - Optional VWAP-based price scaling
Core Outputs
• Aroon Up (0–100): Strength of recent highs
• Aroon Down (0–100): Strength of recent lows
• Aroon Oscillator (−100 to +100): Net dominance (Up − Down)
Inputs and Options
• Source: Input series used for calculations
• Aroon Length: Lookback window
• Use Source for High/Low: Enables Aroon-like mode on any series
• Show Oscillator: Toggles oscillator plot
• Show Aroon Up/Down: Toggles component lines
• Smooth Oscillator: Light smoothing (EMA/RMA/SMA)
• VWAP Price Scaling: Scales signal by VWAP distance normalized by ATR
How to Use It
Use the oscillator as a trend regime filter. Positive values indicate bullish dominance; negative values indicate bearish dominance. VWAP scaling helps suppress signals near equilibrium and emphasize extended moves.
Practical Notes
• Measures recency, not magnitude
• Best used as a regime or bias input
• Especially effective intraday with VWAP scaling
BHUVANA Fib 50/61.8 Stairs with RR Targets Fib 50–61.8 Stairs with RR Targets (debug) automatically tracks the latest swing and draws a 50%–61.8% Fibonacci pullback zone as step-like “stairs.” From that zone it plots a planned trade framework: entry reference, stop/invalidation, and multiple Risk:Reward targets (e.g., 1R/1.5R/2R/3R).
What it’s for
Visualize the “buy/sell pullback” area (50–61.8) in trending moves
Standardize exits with RR targets instead of guessing
Quickly see when the swing/zone updates as structure changes
How to use (simple)
Wait for a clear impulse swing to form.
Let price retrace into the 50–61.8 zone.
Take entries only with your own trigger (reclaim / rejection / BOS).
Use the plotted stop and RR targets for management.
Inputs
Swing detection / lookback
RR multiples and target count
Show/hide stairs, labels, debug visuals
Important
This is a mapping tool, not a standalone signal. If you trade every touch of 50–61.8 without confirmation, you’ll get chopped. Debug version may show extra visuals and can repaint on swing updates. Not financial advice.
InCrypto WatermarkInCrypto Watermark
A customizable overlay indicator that displays essential trading information directly on your TradingView charts. This tool helps traders quickly access key market data without cluttering the chart interface.
KEY FEATURES:
• Symbol Information: Displays current trading pair and active timeframe
• Price Display: Optional current price with smart precision formatting
• Price Change: Optional price change percentage over 24 bars with color-coded indicators
• Date & Time: Multiple format options for date (DD/MM/YYYY, MM/DD/YYYY, YYYY-MM-DD, DD.MM.YYYY) and time (HH:MM, HH:MM:SS)
• Custom Text: Customizable title and subtitle text
• Full Customization: Adjustable positioning, colors, sizes, alignment, and opacity for all elements
• Visibility Controls: Show/hide individual elements independently
• Background Options: Customizable background color, opacity, and optional borders
SETTINGS:
The indicator is organized into logical groups:
- Text Content: Title and subtitle customization
- Visibility: Individual show/hide controls for each element
- Watermark Position: Flexible placement options
- Symbol Info Position: Separate positioning controls
- Cell Size: Width and height adjustments
- Title/Subtitle/Symbol Info Settings: Color, size, alignment, and opacity controls
- Background Settings: Background color, opacity, and border options
USE CASES:
• Chart branding for trading groups or channels
• Quick reference for essential trading information
• Professional-looking charts for screenshots
• Multi-timeframe analysis assistance
TECHNICAL DETAILS:
• Pine Script v6
• Overlay indicator
• Works on all TradingView-supported markets and timeframes
• Real-time updates
HOW TO USE:
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Customize title and subtitle in Text Content settings
3. Adjust positioning for watermark and symbol info sections
4. Enable/disable individual information elements as needed
5. Fine-tune colors, sizes, and opacity to match your chart style
The indicator automatically adjusts price precision based on the asset's price level. Price change is calculated over 24 bars of the current timeframe (not 24 hours).
DISCLAIMER:
This indicator is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and risk management before making trading decisions. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
Michael Mor - ATRMichael Mor -ATR is a clean, lightweight chart watermark that gives you key stock context at a glance — without cluttering your chart or covering price action.
It’s designed for traders who want essential fundamentals + recent performance visible directly on the chart, in a subtle, professional style.
What it shows
You can toggle each line on or off:
Company name (optional market cap: M / B / T)
Symbol & timeframe
Sector & industry
ATR (14) with percentage of price and a quick volatility indicator
🟢 low volatility
🟡 medium volatility
🔴 high volatility
Triple EMA (TEMA) + Slope LeadThis indicator plots a standard Triple EMA (TEMA) and an optional slope-lead version. TEMA is a low-lag moving average built from three EMAs, allowing it to track price more closely than a single EMA. The Lead Strength (k) adds a small forward “push” based on the recent TEMA slope:
TEMA_lead = TEMA + k × (TEMA − TEMA ). Higher k values make the line react earlier but increase sensitivity in chop.
Used as a source for other indicators (RSI, MACD, stochastic, regime filters, etc.), TEMA or TEMA-Lead may improve signal quality by reducing noise, aligning momentum readings with trend direction, and producing earlier, cleaner transitions at turns, often without the excessive lag introduced by heavier smoothing.
Ram Key Levels (Daily Horizontals) + Day SeparatorsRam Key Levels (Daily Horizontals) + Day Separators
Bhuvana Retrace Predictor (ATR + RSI Dive + St Break)It’s a “retracement warning + confirmation” tool. Nothing more.
Concept in simple words
Price runs too far too fast
The script uses EMA + ATR bands to detect when price is “stretched” (far from normal).
The run is losing power
It checks RSI divergence:
Price makes a new high but RSI doesn’t → buyers are getting weaker.
Price makes a new low but RSI doesn’t → sellers are getting weaker.
It waits for proof the pullback started
It then waits for a small structure break:
For a drop: price closes below a recent minor low.
For a bounce: price closes above a recent minor high.
What each label means
SETUP = “Retracement is likely soon” (don’t chase).
CONFIRM = “Retracement probably started” (now it’s tradable).
Brutal truth
This doesn’t predict perfectly. It just stacks 3 common signs:
overextended + weakening momentum + structure break.
Bhuvana Retrace Predictor It’s a “retracement warning + confirmation” tool. Nothing more.
Concept in simple words
Price runs too far too fast
The script uses EMA + ATR bands to detect when price is “stretched” (far from normal).
The run is losing power
It checks RSI divergence:
Price makes a new high but RSI doesn’t → buyers are getting weaker.
Price makes a new low but RSI doesn’t → sellers are getting weaker.
It waits for proof the pullback started
It then waits for a small structure break:
For a drop: price closes below a recent minor low.
For a bounce: price closes above a recent minor high.
What each label means
SETUP = “Retracement is likely soon” (don’t chase).
CONFIRM = “Retracement probably started” (now it’s tradable).
Brutal truth
This doesn’t predict perfectly. It just stacks 3 common signs:
overextended + weakening momentum + structure break.
XAU Seasonality + Setup Quality + Month Strength | WarRoomXYZXAU Seasonality Engine is a technical analysis indicator developed for the study of recurring, calendar-based behavior on XAUUSD (Gold).
The tool blends month-of-year seasonality statistics with higher-timeframe context and a setup-quality gate to help users observe when market conditions historically lean strong, weak, or neutral — and how strict trade selection should be during each regime.
Indicator Concept
An indicator for XAUUSD that combines:
1. Seasonality Regime (Month-of-Year Bias)
► Classifies the current month as Strong / Weak / Neutral based on either:
• Preset months (user-defined)
or
• Auto mode (computed from historical monthly performance)
► Strong months suggest a bullish tailwind (not a signal).
► Weak months suggest headwind / caution and require stricter setup quality.
2. Monthly Performance Engine (Under the Hood)
► Uses the symbol’s monthly timeframe data to compute, per calendar month:
• Average monthly return (%)
• Win rate (%) — how often that month closes positive
• Month Strength Score (0–100) — a blended score derived from performance data
► The score is designed to provide a relative strength snapshot of seasonality by month.
3. Month Strength Histogram
► Plots a histogram (0–100) of the current month’s strength score.
• Higher bars = historically stronger month tendency
• Lower bars = historically weaker month tendency
► Optional horizontal reference lines mark “strong” and “weak” zones to make regimes obvious at a glance.
4. Setup Quality Meter (Confluence Filter)
► The indicator calculates a Setup Quality Score (0–100) using market structure and momentum components, such as:
• EMA trend alignment
• Momentum confirmation (EMA fast vs slow)
• Structure break confirmation (BOS)
• Liquidity sweep behavior
• Candle confirmation logic
► This score is intended as a trade-selectivity filter , not a trade executor.
5. Adaptive Rules for Weak Months (Strict Mode)
► When the indicator detects a weak seasonal regime, conditions automatically tighten:
• The A+ threshold increases (adaptive thresholding)
• Optional rule: Weak months require BOS + Sweep + FVG simultaneously before any A+ condition is considered valid
This forces the user into “higher-quality-only” behavior during historically weaker seasonal periods.
🔹1 Visual Components Included
• Seasonality regime label (Strong / Weak / Neutral)
• Optional background shading based on regime
• Month Strength Score histogram (0–100)
• Current month stats: Avg return + win rate
• Setup Quality Meter value (0–100)
• Adaptive A+ threshold display
• Weak-month confluence gate status (BOS / Sweep / FVG pass/fail)
• Optional alerts when strict criteria are met
➣What Means in the XAU Indicator
🔹 Definition (in THIS indicator)
Win Rate = the percentage of historical months that closed positive for the same calendar month.
It is NOT:
trade win rate ❌
signal accuracy ❌
It is a s tatistical seasonality metric .
How It’s Calculated
For each calendar month (January, February, etc.), the indicator:
1.Looks at historical monthly candles (Monthly timeframe).
2. Counts how many times that month:
•Closed higher than it opened (or higher than previous month close).
3. Divides:
Number of positive months
÷
Total number of observed months
× 100
Example: September
If over the last 20 years:
September closed green 14 times
September closed red 6 times
Then:
Win Rate = (14 / 20) × 100 = 70%
That’s what you see as in the dashboard.
What the Win Rate Is Used For
1️⃣ Part of the Month Strength Score
The indicator blends:
•Average Monthly Return (%) → measures magnitude
•Win Rate (%) → measures consistency
Combined into:
Month Strength Score (0–100)
This avoids a common trap:
•A month with 1 huge rally but many losses ≠ reliable
•A month with steady positive closes = higher quality environment
What Win Rate Tells You
High Win Rate (e.g. 65–75%)
•Gold more often closes higher in this month
•Continuation is statistically more likely
•Pullbacks are more likely to resolve in trend direction
Low Win Rate (e.g. 35–45%)
•Gold more often fails to close higher
•More chop, deeper retracements, false breakouts
•Continuation trades statistically struggle
What It Does NOT Tell You
🚫 It does NOT mean:
•“You will win 70% of your trades”
•“Every setup in this month works”
•“Direction is guaranteed”
Seasonality is context, not prediction.
Why This Is Powerful When Combined With Your System
On its own, win rate is just data.
But in your indicator, it’s used to:
•🔒 Raise the A+ threshold in weak months
•🧠 Force BOS + Sweep + FVG confluence
•❌ Block marginal setups automatically
So instead of guessing:
-“Why is gold so choppy this month?”
You know:
-“This month historically underperforms SO I must be stricter.”
➣What Means in the XAU Seasonality Indicator
🔹 Definition (in THIS indicator)
Avg Monthly Return = the average percentage gain or loss of XAUUSD for a specific calendar month, calculated across many years.
It measures magnitude , not frequency.
It is NOT:
•trade profit ❌
•expected return for the next month ❌
•guaranteed performance ❌
It is a historical seasonality tendency.
How It’s Calculated
For each calendar month (January, February, etc.), the indicator:
1.Takes every historical occurrence of that month.
2.Calculates the percentage change of the monthly candle:
(Monthly Close − Previous Monthly Close)
÷ Previous Monthly Close × 100
3. Adds all those percentage changes together.
4. Divides by the total number of observations.
Example: September
Assume over 20 years:
+2.4%, +1.1%, −0.6%, +3.0%, +1.8%, ...
If the sum of all September returns = +28% across 20 years:
Avg Monthly Return = +1.40%
That’s the number displayed in the indicator.
What Avg Monthly Return Is Used For
1️⃣ Measuring Strength of Movement
•Win Rate → “How often does it close green?”
•Avg Monthly Return → “How big are the moves when it works?”
Both are needed.
A month can:
•Win often but move very little
•Move a lot but only occasionally
The indicator combines both to avoid misleading conclusions.
How to Interpret Avg Monthly Return
Positive Avg Return (e.g. +0.8% to +2.0%)
•Gold tends to expand during this month
•Continuation phases are more likely
•Pullbacks are often absorbed
Near-Zero Avg Return (e.g. −0.2% to +0.2%)
•Market is statistically balanced
•Expect chop, rotations, false breaks
•Continuation is less reliable
Negative Avg Return (e.g. −0.5% or worse)
•Downward pressure or heavy mean reversion
•Rallies often fade
•Risk of aggressive stop hunts
What Avg Monthly Return Does NOT Mean
🚫 It does NOT mean:
•“Price will move +1.4% this month”
•“You should buy because the number is positive”
•“This is a guaranteed edge”
It describes historical behavior, not future certainty.
Why Avg Monthly Return Matters More Than People Think
Two months can have the same win rate but behave very differently:
Example:
Month Win Rate Avg Return Reality
Month A 65% +0.2% Small, choppy wins
Month B 55% +1.6% Fewer wins, but strong expansions
Your indicator would rank Month B as stronger, which is correct for continuation-based strategies.
How It Feeds the Month Strength Score
The indicator blends:
•60% Avg Monthly Return (normalized)
•40% Win Rate
This means:
•Big moves matter more than small consistency
•But consistency still matters enough to prevent distortion
Result:
Month Strength Score (0–100)
Which is then used to:
•tighten or relax A+ thresholds
•activate weak-month strict rules
•control trade frequency
🔹2. Intended Use
The indicator is designed as a discretionary analysis tool to support study of:
• seasonal bias and calendar tendencies
• relative strength/weakness across months
• how strict trade selection should be across different regimes
• confluence behavior when seasonal conditions are unfavorable
The tool does not generate forecasts, does not guarantee outcomes, and should not be relied upon as a stand-alone decision mechanism.
🔹3.How to Use XAU Seasonality Engine
Recommended charts: XAUUSD, intraday (5m–15m) with a HTF context (1H–4H).
1. Identify the Seasonal Regime
• Strong month → you can allow more continuation bias (still require structure).
• Neutral month → trade normally, standard criteria.
• Weak month → tighten selection, demand clean A+ conditions only.
2. Read the Month Strength Histogram
• If the score is high (e.g., 70+), the month has historically shown stronger tendency.
• If the score is low (e.g., 40 and below), expect slower conditions, deeper pullbacks, or more chop — and reduce marginal trades.
3. Use the Setup Quality Meter as the Gate
► In normal/strong months:
• A+ threshold is moderate (e.g., 70)
► In weak months:
• A+ threshold is higher (e.g., 80+)
• Optional strict mode: must also pass BOS + Sweep + FVG alignment
4. Example Trade Logic (Framework, Not Signals)
► Bullish framework in a Strong Month:
• Seasonal regime = Strong (tailwind)
• Structure supports bullish continuation (trend alignment)
• Sweep occurs into demand / liquidity grab
• Setup Quality reaches A+ threshold
• Entry: confirmation candle or retrace to key level
• SL: beyond sweep low / invalidation
• TP: nearest liquidity / prior highs / HTF level
► Weak Month rule-set (Strict Mode):
• Seasonal regime = Weak (headwind)
• Only consider trades if:
✅ BOS confirms direction
✅ Sweep occurs and rejects cleanly
✅ FVG exists recently (or is mitigated if you choose that model)
✅ Setup Quality exceeds the elevated adaptive threshold
If any one is missing → no trade
This is not meant to “predict” gold — it’s meant to enforce discipline when seasonality historically underperforms.
🔹4.Limitations and User Responsibility
► The indicator does not represent financial advice or imply performance expectations.
► Seasonality is statistical tendency, not certainty — macro conditions can override it.
► Results vary by broker feed, timeframe, and settings.
► Users should test thoroughly in simulation before applying to live markets.
► All trading decisions, risk management, and execution remain solely the responsibility of the user.
🔹5. Alerts
Optional alerts can notify when:
• a new month begins and the seasonal regime changes
• A+ criteria are met
• weak-month strict conditions pass (BOS + Sweep + FVG)
Alerts are informational only and do not constitute actionable recommendations.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for informational and educational purposes only . It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice, and it does not guarantee profits or future performance. All decisions made based on this script are solely the responsibility of the user.
This script does not execute trades, manage risk, or replace the need for trader discretion. Market behavior can change quickly, and past behavior detected by the script does not ensure similar future outcomes.
Users should test the script on demo or simulation environments before applying it to live markets and must maintain full responsibility for their own risk management, position sizing, and trade execution.
Trading involves risk, and losses can exceed deposits. By using this script, you acknowledge that you understand and accept all associated risks.
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Default settings are:
16 HMA
8,17,9 MACD
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Change MA type/length, MACD parameters, ADX threshold
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🔹 Key Features
Valid Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
- Detects bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps using a precise 3-candle structure
- FVGs are only plotted after the confirming candle has closed
- A Fair Value Gap remains visible only as long as it is valid
- Once price closes beyond the FVG, it is removed or converted
Inverted Fair Value Gaps (iFVG)
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- iFVGs retain the original price range and structure
- Only valid iFVGs are displayed
- As soon as price closes through an iFVG, it is automatically removed
Clean & Controlled Visualization
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- Only the last N valid iFVGs are shown
- Boxes automatically extend to the current price + configurable bars
- Labels are dynamically positioned at the right edge of each zone
🔹 Technical Notes
- No repainting
- No intrabar signals
- Close-based validation only
- Works on all markets and timeframes
- Lightweight and performance-friendly
⚠️ Disclaimer
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