The most likely scenario on BABA

based on the price pattern has been formed in the last 3 years, the most likely scenario is what is shown by the blue line marked on the chart.
due to the last move of the price and disability to catch the Last High which is marked by the orange line, market structure hasn't changed and downtrend is still continuous.
so i'm expecting a new low and all of the mentiond fact beside the weakend downtrend show me a scenario which is marked on the chart by blue line.