AlphaZ-Score - Bitcoin Market Cycle IndicatorWHAT IS ALPHAZ-SCORE?
AlphaZ-Score is a Bitcoin-specific market cycle indicator that identifies extreme market conditions (tops and bottoms) by aggregating up to 7 independent on-chain and market metrics into a single normalized z-score. Unlike traditional oscillators that analyze only price action, AlphaZ-Score incorporates blockchain fundamentals, investor profitability metrics, and capital flow data to determine where Bitcoin sits within its long-term market cycle.
The output ranges from -3 (extreme oversold/cycle bottom) to +3 (extreme overbought/cycle top), with readings beyond ±2 indicating high-probability reversal zones.
METHODOLOGY - THE 7-COMPONENT SYSTEM
Each component analyzes Bitcoin's market state from a unique perspective, then gets z-scored (statistical normalization) so all metrics can be compared on equal footing. The final score is a weighted average of all enabled indicators.
Default Configuration (3 indicators enabled):
Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSRO)
MVRV Z-Score
SOPR Z-Score
Optional Advanced Components (4 indicators disabled by default):
Days Higher Streak Valuation (DHSV)
High Probability OB/OS (HPOB)
Risk Index Z-Score
Comprehensive On-chain Z-Score
COMPONENT BREAKDOWN
1. STABLECOIN SUPPLY RATIO OSCILLATOR (SSRO) - ENABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Ratio of Bitcoin market cap to total stablecoin supply (USDT + USDC)
Data sources:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC - Bitcoin market cap
CRYPTOCAP:USDT - Tether market cap
CRYPTOCAP:USDC - USD Coin market cap
Logic:
SSR = BTC Market Cap / (USDT + USDC Supply)
Z-Score = Standardized SSR over 200 periods
Interpretation:
High SSR (positive z-score): Bitcoin overvalued relative to available stablecoin buying power → Overbought
Low SSR (negative z-score): Massive stablecoin reserves relative to BTC value → Potential bottom (dry powder)
Why it works: Stablecoins represent "dry powder" - capital waiting to enter crypto. When stablecoin supply is high relative to BTC value, it signals accumulation potential. When low, it suggests exhausted buying power.
2. MVRV Z-SCORE - ENABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Market Value to Realized Value ratio, z-scored over 520 periods
Data source: INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MVRV
Logic:
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
Z-Score = (MVRV - Mean) / Std Dev
Interpretation:
High MVRV (positive z-score): Average holder in significant profit → Distribution phase
Low MVRV (negative z-score): Average holder near breakeven/loss → Accumulation phase
Why it works: MVRV compares Bitcoin's market price to its "fair value" (realized price = average cost basis of all coins). Extreme deviations historically mark cycle tops (MVRV > 3.5) and bottoms (MVRV < 1.0).
Historical significance:
2017 top: MVRV z-score ~7
2018 bottom: MVRV z-score ~-1.5
2021 top: MVRV z-score ~6
2022 bottom: MVRV z-score ~-1.0
3. SOPR Z-SCORE - ENABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Spent Output Profit Ratio, smoothed and z-scored
Data source: GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR
Logic:
SOPR = Value of spent outputs / Value at creation
SOPR EMA = 7-period exponential moving average
Z-Score = Standardized SOPR EMA over 180 periods
Interpretation:
SOPR > 1 (positive z-score): Coins being spent at profit → Potential distribution
SOPR < 1 (negative z-score): Coins being spent at loss → Capitulation/bottom
Why it works: SOPR measures aggregate profitability of spent coins. When holders are forced to sell at losses (SOPR < 1), it indicates capitulation and potential bottoms. When everyone sells at profit (SOPR >> 1), it signals euphoria and potential tops.
4. DAYS HIGHER STREAK VALUATION (DHSV) - DISABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Number of historical bars with prices higher than current level
Logic:
For last N bars, count how many had close > current close
Apply streak decay logic based on price threshold
Z-Score result over lookback period
Interpretation:
Few days higher (negative z-score): Price near all-time highs → Potential overbought
Many days higher (positive z-score): Price deep below historical levels → Oversold
Why it works: Measures how "expensive" current price is relative to history. When 90%+ of historical bars are higher, you're near cycle bottoms.
Settings:
Historical Bars (1000): How far back to look
Threshold & Decay: Sensitivity adjustments
5. HIGH PROBABILITY OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD (HPOB) - DISABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Volume-weighted price momentum divergence
Logic:
Volume-weighted Hull MA vs Standard Hull MA
Difference normalized by 100-period SMA
Result inverted and scaled to match z-score range
Interpretation:
Positive score: Volume-weighted momentum diverging up → Overbought
Negative score: Volume-weighted momentum diverging down → Oversold
Why it works: When volume-weighted price movement diverges from standard price movement, it reveals institutional vs retail behavior mismatches.
Settings:
SVWHMA Length (50): Volume-weighted smoothing
HMA Length (50): Standard momentum baseline
Smooth Length (50): Final output smoothing
6. RISK INDEX Z-SCORE - DISABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Modified Puell Multiple approach using realized cap
Data sources:
COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL - Realized market cap
GLASSNODE:BTC_MARKETCAP - Current market cap
Logic:
Delta = Risk Multiplier × Realized Cap - Historical Realized Cap
Risk Index = (Delta / Market Cap × 100) / 24
Z-Score = Standardized Risk Index over 1500 periods
Interpretation:
High risk (positive z-score): Realized cap growth outpacing market cap → Overextended
Low risk (negative z-score): Market cap collapsed relative to realized cap → Undervalued
Why it works: Compares the rate of realized cap change to market cap. Rapid realized cap growth during low market cap periods signals accumulation.
7. COMPREHENSIVE ON-CHAIN Z-SCORE - DISABLED BY DEFAULT
What it measures: Average of three on-chain metrics: NUPL, SOPR, and MVRV
Data sources:
GLASSNODE:BTC_MARKETCAP - Current market cap
COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL - Realized cap
GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR - SOPR data
Logic:
NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap × 100
SOPR Z-Score = (SOPR - Mean) / Std Dev with EMA smoothing
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
Final Score = Average of all three z-scores
Interpretation:
Combines profitability (NUPL), spending behavior (SOPR), and valuation (MVRV) into single comprehensive on-chain metric.
AGGREGATION METHODOLOGY
Scoring System:
Each enabled indicator produces a z-score (typically -3 to +3 range)
Scores are weighted equally (weight = 1.0 for all)
Final output = Weighted average of all enabled indicators
Why Equal Weighting:
Each metric analyzes fundamentally different aspects of Bitcoin's market state. Equal weighting prevents any single data source from dominating and ensures diversification.
Customization:
Users can enable/disable indicators to:
Simplify analysis (3 core metrics)
Increase complexity (all 7 metrics)
Focus on specific aspects (only on-chain, only market-based, etc.)
INTERPRETATION GUIDE
Z-Score Ranges:
+3.0 and above - EXTREME OVERBOUGHT
Historical cycle tops
Maximum euphoria
High-probability distribution zone
Consider taking profits
+2.0 to +3.0 - OVERBOUGHT
Late bull market phase
Elevated risk
Cautious positioning recommended
-2.0 to +2.0 - NEUTRAL
Normal market conditions
Trend-following strategies appropriate
-2.0 to -3.0 - OVERSOLD
Early accumulation phase
Fear/capitulation stage
Begin DCA strategies
-3.0 and below - EXTREME OVERSOLD
Historical cycle bottoms
Maximum fear
High-probability accumulation zone
Prime buying opportunity
VISUAL COMPONENTS
1. Main Z-Score Line:
Dynamic color gradient based on value
Green shades: Oversold (buying opportunity)
Red shades: Overbought (distribution zone)
White: Neutral
2. Reference Lines:
0: Neutral baseline
±2: Overbought/Oversold thresholds
±3: Extreme zones (highest probability reversals)
3. Background Shading:
Light green: Oversold (-2 to -3)
Bright green: Extreme oversold (< -3)
Light red: Overbought (+2 to +3)
Bright red: Extreme overbought (> +3)
4. Bar Coloring:
Cyan bars: Oversold conditions
Red bars: Overbought conditions
Default: Neutral
5. Summary Table (Top Right):
Market State: Current condition (Extreme OB/OS, Overbought/Oversold, Neutral)
Z-Score Value: Precise numeric reading
HOW TO USE
For Long-Term Investors (DCA Strategy):
Aggressive accumulation: Z-score < -2 (especially < -3)
Regular accumulation: Z-score between -2 and 0
Hold: Z-score between 0 and +2
Take profits: Z-score > +2 (especially > +3)
For Cycle Traders:
Buy zone: Wait for z-score to drop below -2
Hold through: Ignore noise between -2 and +2
Sell zone: Start distributing when z-score exceeds +2
Exit: Complete exit if z-score reaches +3
Risk Management:
Never buy in extreme overbought (>+3) - Historically always preceded major crashes
Scale into positions - Don't go all-in at any single reading
Use with price action - Confirm with support/resistance levels
Best Timeframes:
1D (Daily): Primary timeframe for cycle analysis
1W (Weekly): Macro cycle perspective
Lower timeframes not recommended (designed for long-term cycles)
SETTINGS CONFIGURATION
General Settings:
Toggle each of 7 indicators on/off
Default: 3 indicators enabled (SSRO, MVRV, SOPR)
Advanced: Enable all 7 for maximum sensitivity
Individual Indicator Settings:
Each indicator has dedicated parameter groups:
DHSV: Historical lookback, threshold decay
HPOB: HMA and VWMA lengths, smoothing
SSRO: Z-score calculation period (200)
MVRV: Z-score length (520)
Risk: Multiplier and z-score length
SOPR: EMA smoothing (7), z-score period (180)
On-chain: Separate lengths for NUPL, SOPR, MVRV components
DATA REQUIREMENTS
Required External Data Sources:
Default configuration (3 indicators):
CRYPTOCAP:BTC - Bitcoin market cap
CRYPTOCAP:USDT - Tether supply
CRYPTOCAP:USDC - USD Coin supply
INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MVRV - MVRV ratio
GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR - SOPR data
Optional indicators require:
GLASSNODE:BTC_MARKETCAP - Market cap (on-chain)
COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL - Realized cap
Additional Glassnode metrics
Important: This indicator requires TradingView data subscriptions for on-chain metrics. Some data sources may not be available on all accounts.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
Major Cycle Tops Identified:
November 2021: Z-score peaked at ~+2.8 before -50% crash
December 2017: Z-score exceeded +3.0 before -84% bear market
April 2013: Z-score hit extreme overbought before correction
Major Cycle Bottoms Identified:
November 2022: Z-score reached -2.5 before +100% rally
December 2018: Z-score dropped to -2.8 before +300% bull run
January 2015: Z-score hit -3.2 before multi-year bull market
Key Insight: Extreme readings (beyond ±2.5) have preceded major market reversals with high accuracy. The indicator is designed for cycle identification, not short-term trading.
ORIGINALITY - WHY THIS IS UNIQUE
Traditional Cycle Indicators:
Use single metrics (MVRV only, SOPR only, etc.)
No normalization - hard to compare metrics
Fixed thresholds that don't adapt to market evolution
Often proprietary black boxes
AlphaZ-Score Advantages:
Multi-Metric Aggregation: Combines on-chain fundamentals, market structure, and capital flows into single score
Statistical Normalization: Z-scoring allows fair comparison of completely different metrics (market cap ratios vs profitability metrics)
Modular Design: Enable only the metrics you trust or have data access to
Transparent Calculations: All formulas visible in open-source code
Bitcoin-Specific Optimization: Tuned specifically for Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle and on-chain characteristics
Customizable Weighting: Advanced users can modify weights for different market regimes
Visual Clarity: Single line that clearly shows cycle position, unlike juggling multiple indicators
LIMITATIONS
Requires on-chain data subscriptions - Some metrics need premium TradingView data
Lagging indicator - Identifies cycles after they begin, not predictive
Bitcoin-specific - Not designed for altcoins or traditional markets
Long-term focus - Not suitable for day trading or short-term speculation
Data availability - Historical on-chain data only goes back to ~2010
External dependencies - Relies on Glassnode, CoinMetrics data accuracy
ALERTS
No built-in alerts (indicator designed for visual analysis of long-term cycles). Users can create custom alerts based on z-score thresholds.
BEST PRACTICES
✅ Use on daily or weekly timeframe only
✅ Combine with long-term moving averages (200 MA, 200 WMA)
✅ Wait for extreme readings (beyond ±2) before major decisions
✅ Scale positions - don't go all-in at any single reading
✅ Verify on-chain data sources are updating properly
❌ Don't use for short-term trading (minutes/hours)
❌ Don't ignore price action - confirm with chart patterns
❌ Don't expect perfect timing - cycles can extend beyond extremes
❌ Don't trade solely on this indicator - use as confluence
Not financial advice. This indicator identifies market cycles based on historical patterns and on-chain data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.
Cycle
𝑨𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒓 - HelAstar – Hel is an adaptive ATR stop system that finds the best ATR length in real time.
@v1.0
Optimizes ATR length automatically within a defined range
Plots dynamic long/short stops with ATR multiplier
Option to use Super Smoother (FFT-lite) filtering
On-chart stats table with performance & win probability
Lightweight, efficient, and no repainting
Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model [Backquant]Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model
Invite-only. A universal long-term valuation strategy and trend model built to work across markets, with an emphasis on crypto where cycles and volatility are large. Intended primarily for the 1D timeframe. Inputs should be adjusted per asset to reflect its structure and volatility.
If you would like to checkout the simplified and open source valuation, check out:
What this is
A two-layer framework that answers two different questions.
• The Valuation Engine asks “how extended is price relative to its own long-term regime” and outputs a centered oscillator that moves positive in supportive conditions and negative in deteriorating conditions.
• The Trend Model asks “is the market actually trending in a sustained direction” and converts several independent subsystems into a single composite score.
The combination lets you separate “where we are in the cycle” from “what to do about it” so allocation and timing can be handled with fewer conflicts.
Design philosophy
Crypto and many risk assets move in multi-month expansions and contractions. Short tools flip often and can be misleading near regime boundaries. This model favors slower, high-confidence information, then summarizes it in simple visuals and alerts. It is not trying to catch every swing. It is built to help you participate in the meat of long uptrends, de-risk during deteriorations, and identify stretched conditions that deserve caution or patience.
Valuation Engine, high level
The Valuation Engine blends several slow signals into one measure. Exact transforms, windows, and weights are private, but the categories below describe the intent. Each input is standardized so unlike units can be combined without one dominating.
Momentum quality — favors persistent, orderly advances over erratic spikes. Helps distinguish trend continuation from noise.
Mean-reversion pressure — detects when price is far from a long anchor or when oscillators are pulling back toward equilibrium.
Risk-adjusted return — long-window reward to variability. Encourages time in market when advances are efficient rather than merely fast.
Volume imbalance — summarizes whether activity is expanding with advances or with declines, using a slow envelope to avoid day-to-day churn.
Trend distance — expresses how stretched price is from a structural baseline rather than from a short moving average.
Price normalization — a long z-score of price to keep extremes comparable across cycles and symbols.
How the Valuation Engine is shaped
Standardization — components are put on comparable scales over long windows.
Composite blend — standardized parts are combined into one reading with protective weighting. No single family can override the rest on its own.
Smoothing — optional moving average smoothing to reduce whipsaw around zero or around the bands.
Bounded scaling — the composite is compressed into a stable, interpretable range so the mid zone and extremes are visually consistent. This reduces the effect of outliers without hiding genuine stress.
Volatility-aware re-expansion — after compression, the series is allowed to swing wider in high-volatility regimes so “overbought” and “oversold” remain meaningful when conditions change.
Thresholds — fixed OB/OS levels or dynamic bands that float with recent dispersion. Dynamic bands use k times a rolling standard deviation. Fixed bands are simple and comparable across charts.
How to read the Valuation Oscillator
Above zero suggests a supportive backdrop. Rising and positive often aligns with uptrends that are gaining participation.
Below zero suggests deterioration or risk aversion. Falling and negative often aligns with distribution or with trend exhaustion.
Touches of the upper band show stretch on the optimistic side. Repeated tags without breakdown often occur late in cycles, especially in crypto.
Touches of the lower band show stretch on the pessimistic side. They are common in washouts and early bases.
Visual elements
Valuation Oscillator — colored by sign for instant context.
OB/OS guides — fixed or dynamic bands.
Background and bar colors — optional, tied to the sign of valuation for quick scans.
Summary table — optional, shows the standardized contribution of the major categories and the final composite score with a simple status icon.
Trend Model, composite scoring
The trend side aggregates several independent subsystems. Each subsystem issues a vote: long, short, or neutral. Votes are averaged into a composite score. The exact logic of each subsystem is intentionally abstracted. The families below describe roles, not formulas.
Long-horizon price state — checks where price sits relative to multiple structural baselines and whether those baselines are aligned.
Macro regime checks — favors sustained risk-on behavior and penalizes persistent deterioration in breadth or volatility structure.
Ultimate confirmation — a conservative filter that only votes when directional evidence is persistent.
Minimalist sanity checks — keep the model responsive to obvious extremes and prevent “stuck neutral” states.
Higher timeframe or overlay inputs — optional votes that consider slower contexts or relative strength to stabilize borderline periods.
You define two cutoffs for the composite: above the long threshold the state is Long , below the short threshold the state is Short , in between is Cash/Neutral . The script paints a signal line on price for an at-a-glance view and provides alerts when the composite crosses your thresholds.
How it can be used
Cycle framing in crypto — use deep negative valuation as accumulation context, then look for the composite trend to move through your long threshold. Late in cycles, extended positive valuation with weakening composite votes is a caution cue for de-risking or tighter management.
Regime-based allocation — increase risk or loosen take-profits when the composite is firmly Long and valuation is rising. Decrease risk or rotate to stable holdings when the composite is Short and valuation is falling.
Signal gating — run shorter-term entry systems only in the direction of the composite. This reduces counter-trend trades and improves holding discipline during strong uptrends.
Sizing overlay — scale position sizes by the magnitude of the valuation reading. Smaller sizes near the upper band during aging advances, larger sizes near zero after strong resets.
DCA context — for long-only accumulation, schedule heavier adds when valuation is negative and stabilizing, then lighten or pause adds when valuation is very positive and flattening.
Cross-asset rotation — compare symbols on 1D with the same fixed bands. Favor assets with positive valuation that are also in a Long composite state.
Interpreting common patterns
Early build-out — valuation rises from below zero, but the composite is still neutral. This is often the base-building phase. Patience and staged entries can make sense.
Healthy advance — valuation positive and trending up, composite firmly Long. Pullbacks that keep valuation above zero are usually opportunities rather than trend breaks.
Late-cycle stretch — valuation pinned near the upper band while the composite starts to weaken toward neutral. Consider trimming, tightening risk, or shifting to a “let the market prove it” stance.
Distribution and unwind — valuation negative and falling, composite Short. Rallies are treated as counter-trend until both turn.
Settings that matter
Timeframe
This model is intended for 1D as the primary view. It can be inspected on higher or lower frames, but the design choices assume daily bars for crypto and other risk assets.
Asset-specific tuning
Inputs should be adjusted per asset. Coins with high variability benefit from longer lookbacks and slightly wider dynamic bands. Lower-volatility instruments can use shorter windows and tighter bands.
Valuation side
Lookback lengths — longer values make the oscillator steadier and more cycle-aware. Shorter values increase sensitivity but create more mid-zone noise.
Smoothing — enable to reduce flicker around zero and around the bands. Disable if you want faster warnings of regime change.
Dynamic vs fixed thresholds — dynamic bands float with recent dispersion and keep OB/OS comparable across regimes. Fixed bands are simple and make inter-asset comparison easy.
Scaling and re-expansion — keep this enabled if you want extremes to remain interpretable when volatility rises.
Trend side
Composite thresholds — widen the neutral zone if you want fewer flips. Tighten thresholds if you want earlier signals at the cost of more transitions.
Visibility — use the price-pane signal line and bar coloring to keep the regime in view while you focus on structure.
Alerts
Valuation OB/OS enter and exit — the oscillator entering or leaving stretched zones.
Zero-line crosses — valuation turning positive or negative.
Trend flips — composite crossing your long or short threshold.
Strengths
Separates “valuation context” from “trend state,” which improves decisions about when to add, reduce, or stand aside.
Composite voting reduces reliance on any single indicator family and improves robustness across regimes.
Volatility-aware scaling keeps signals interpretable during quiet and wild markets.
Clear, configurable visuals and alerts that support long-horizon discipline rather than frequent toggling.
Final thoughts
This is a universal long-term valuation strategy and trend model that aims to keep you aligned with the dominant regime while giving transparent context for stretch and risk. For crypto on 1D, it helps map accumulation, expansion, distribution, and unwind phases with a single, consistent language. Tune lookbacks, smoothing, and thresholds to the asset you trade, let the valuation side tell you where you are in the cycle, and let the composite trend side tell you what stance to hold until the market meaningfully changes.
Killzone za Indexe - @mladja123This indicator highlights the Kill Zones on index charts, showing key market sessions where high-probability price movements are likely to occur. It helps traders identify optimal entry and exit points based on session dynamics and market rhythm, enhancing strategy precision for swing and intraday trading on indices.
Dani u nedelji + midnight open @mladja123This indicator breaks the weekly timeframe into cycles and marks the midnight open for each day. It helps traders visualize weekly structure, identify key daily openings, and track market rhythm within the week. Perfect for analyzing trend patterns, swing setups, and session-based strategies.
Market State Momentum OscillatorMarket State Momentum Oscillator (MSMO)
Overview
The MSMO combines three elements in one panel:
Momentum oscillator (gray/blue area with aqua signal line)
Market State filter (green/red background area)
Money Flow Index (orange line)
Works on all markets and all timeframes. Non-repainting at bar close.
Colors and meaning
Gray area: Momentum above 0 (bullish bias)
Blue area: Momentum below 0 (bearish bias)
Aqua line: Signal line smoothing the oscillator
Green background: Market state bullish (price above moving average)
Red background: Market state bearish (price below moving average)
Orange line: Money Flow Index (volume-weighted momentum)
How to use
Always wait for confirmation of the green or red market state before acting.
Trend alignment: Watch the slope of the Weekly and Daily 200 MA and Weekly and Daily 50 MA to understand higher-timeframe trend direction. Trade only in alignment with the broader trend.
Entries:
Long: Green state + gray histogram rising + MFI trending up
Short: Red state + blue histogram falling + MFI trending down
Exits: Histogram crossing back through 0, or state background flips against the position.
Users can add chart alerts on plot crossings if needed.
Inputs
Lengths for oscillator pivot, signal smoothing, state moving average, trend weight, return %, and Money Flow Index. Defaults work for most charts.
Note
Educational use only. Not financial advice.
Tags
trend, oscillator, market state, momentum, money flow, crypto, forex, stocks, indices, futures
QLitCycle QuarterlyQLITCYCLE
QLitCycle is an intraday cycle visualization tool that divides each trading day into multiple segments, helping traders identify time-based patterns and recurring market behaviors. By splitting the day into distinct periods, this indicator allows for better analysis of intraday rhythms, cycle alignment, and time-specific market tendencies.
It can be applied to various markets and timeframes, but is most effective on intraday charts where precise time segmentation can reveal valuable insights.
FLD Area - Future Lines of Demarcation by Nibbio996FLD Area v12 - Future Lines of Demarcation
Overview
Advanced FLD (Future Lines of Demarcation) indicator with area visualization for cycle analysis. Projects price levels into the future by half the cycle period, displaying high, low, and median as colored areas.
What are FLDs?
Future Lines of Demarcation are price levels shifted forward in time by approximately half the cycle wavelength. Used in cycle analysis to identify potential support/resistance levels and trend changes.
Key Features
Area visualization between high/low FLD lines with customizable colors
Three bands: Upper, Lower, and Total area with independent transparency
Dynamic labels: Customizable text with period display
Status line integration showing real-time FLD values
Flexible display options: Toggle individual lines, labels, and info displays
Parameters
Period: Cycle length (default: 40)
Colors: Customizable for main, upper, and lower areas
Transparency: Adjustable area opacity (0-100)
Labels: Toggle and customize indicator identification
Display Options: Individual lines, status info, top labels
Usage
Set Period based on your cycle analysis
Customize colors and transparency for chart clarity
Configure labels for identification
Analyze where price interacts with projected FLD areas
Applications
Cycle turning point identification
Dynamic support/resistance levels
Trend analysis with FLD projections
Multi-timeframe cycle analysis
FLD Area v12 by Nibbio996
Pine Script v5 | Overlay Indicator
For educational purposes. Use proper risk management.
Cross-Asset Risk Appetite IndexCross-Asset Risk Appetite Index (RiskApp) by CWRP combines multiple asset classes into a single risk sentiment signal to help traders and investors detect when the market is in a risk-on or risk-off regime.
It calculates a composite Z-score index based on relative performance between:
SPY / IEF: Equities vs Bonds
HYG / LQD: High Yield vs Investment Grade Credit
CL / GC: Oil vs Gold
VIX / MOVE: Equity vs Bond Market Volatility (inverted)
Each component reflects capital flows toward riskier or safer assets, with dynamic weighting (Equity/Bond: 30%, Credit: 25%, Commodities: 25%, Volatility: 20%) and smoothing applied for a cleaner signal.
How to Read:
Highlighting
Yellow = Risk-On sentiment (market favors risk assets)
Orange = Risk-Off sentiment (flight to safety)
Black Background = Neutral design for emotional detachment
Table
Equity/Bond Z-Score:
Positive (> +1) --> Stocks outperforming bonds --> Risk-On
Negative (< -1) --> Bonds outperforming stocks --> Risk-Off
Credit Spread Z-Score (HYG/LQD):
Positive --> High yield outperforming --> Investors seeking yield
Negative --> Flight to quality --> Credit concerns
Oil/Gold Z-Score:
Positive --> Oil outperforming --> Economic optimism
Negative --> Gold outperforming --> Defensive positioning
Volatility Spread (VIX/MOVE):
Positive --> Equity vol falling relative to bond vol --> Risk stabilizing
Negative --> Equity vol rising --> Caution / Risk-Off
Composite Index:
> +1 --> Strong Risk Appetite
< -1 --> Strong Risk Aversion
Between -1 and +1 --> Neutral regime
Thank you for using the Cross-Asset Risk Appetite Index by CWRP!
I'm open to all critiques and discussion around macro-finance and hope this model adds clarity to your decision-making.
Shift 3M - 30Y Yield Spread🟧 Shift 3M - 30Y Yield Spread
- This indicator visually displays the **inverse of the US Treasury short-long yield spread** (3-month minus 30-year spread reversal signal) in a "price chart-like" form.
- By default, the spread line is shifted by 1 year to help anticipate forward market moves (you can adjust this offset freely).
- Especially customized to be analyzed together with the movements of US indices like the S&P 500, and to help understand broader market cycles.
✅ Description
- Normalizes the spread based on a rolling window length you set (default: 500 bars).
- Both the normalization window and offset (shift) are fully customizable.
- Then, it scales the spread to match your chart’s price range, allowing you to intuitively compare spread movements alongside price action.
- Instantly see the **inverse (reversal) signals of the short-long yield spread**, curve steepening, and how they align with actual price trends.
⚡ By reading macro yield signals, you can **anticipate exactly when a market crash might come or when an explosive rally is about to start**.
⚡ A perfect tool for macro traders and yield curve analysts who want to quickly catch major market turning points!
copyright @invest_hedgeway
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🟧3개월 - 30년 물 장단기 금리차 역수
- 이 인디케이터는 미국 국채 **장단기 금리차 역수**(3개월물 - 30년물 스프레드의 반전 시그널)를 시각적으로 "가격 차트"처럼 표시해 줍니다.
- 기본적으로 스프레드 선은 **1년(365봉) 시프트**되어 있어, 시장을 선행적으로 파악할 수 있도록 설계되었습니다 (값은 자유롭게 조정 가능).
- 특히 S&P500 등 미국 지수 흐름과 함께 분석할 수 있도록 맞춤화되었으며, 시장 사이클을 이해하는 데에도 큰 도움이 됩니다.
✅ 설명
- 지정한 롤링 윈도우 길이(기본: 500봉)를 기준으로 스프레드를 정규화합니다.
- 정규화 길이와 오프셋(시프트) 모두 자유롭게 설정 가능
- 이후 현재 차트의 가격 레인지에 맞게 스케일링해, 가격과 함께 흐름을 직관적으로 비교할 수 있습니다.
- **장단기 금리차의 역전(역수) 시그널**, 커브 스티프닝 등과 실제 가격 움직임의 관계를 한눈에 확인
⚡ 거시 금리 신호를 통해 **언제 폭락이 올지, 언제 폭등이 터질지** 미리 감지할 수 있습니다.
⚡ 시장의 전환점을 빠르게 캐치하고 싶은 매크로 트레이더와 금리 분석가에게 완벽한 도구!
copyright @invest_hedgeway
Chandelier Exit Oscillator [LuxAlgo]The Chandelier Exit Oscillator is a technical analysis tool that provides insights into potential trend reversals, momentum shifts, and trend continuation patterns, helping traders pinpoint optimal exit points for both long and short positions.
By calculating trailing stop levels based on a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR), the oscillator visually indicates when prices move above or below these critical stop levels.
This script uniquely combines the Chandelier Exit indicator with an oscillator format, equipping traders with a versatile tool that leverages ATR-based levels for enhanced trend analysis.
🔶 USAGE
Displaying the Chandelier Exit as an oscillator allows traders to gauge trend momentum and strength, recognize potential reversals, and refine their market insights.
The Timeframe option specifies the timeframe used for calculations, enabling multi-timeframe analysis and allowing traders to align the indicator’s signals with broader or narrower market trends.
The Chandelier Exit Oscillator allows users to select between a Regular or Normalized oscillator type. The Regular option displays raw oscillator values, while the Normalized version smooths values and scales them from 0 to 100.
The Chandelier Exit Overlay allows users to enable or disable the display of Chandelier Exit levels directly on the price chart. When enabled, this overlay plots trailing stop levels for both long and short positions, helping traders visually monitor potential exit points and trend boundaries alongside the price action.
The Trend-based Bar Color feature allows users to color the bars on the price chart according to the current trend direction. This visual differentiation aids in quicker decision-making and provides a clearer understanding of market dynamics.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Chandelier Exit Settings
Timeframe: Sets the timeframe for calculations, allowing multi-timeframe analysis.
ATR Length: Defines the number of bars used for calculating the Average True Range (ATR), which helps in setting Chandelier Exit levels.
ATR Multiplier: Adjusts the sensitivity of the Chandelier Exit lines based on the ATR. Higher values make the indicator more conservative, while lower values make it more responsive.
🔹 Chandelier Exit Oscillator
Chandelier Exit Oscillator: Allows users to choose between a Regular or Normalized oscillator type. The Regular option displays raw oscillator values, while the Normalized version smooths values and scales them from 0 to 100.
Oscillator Smoothing: Controls the level of smoothing applied to the oscillator. Higher smoothing values filter out minor fluctuations.
🔹 Chandelier Exit Overlay
Chandelier Exit Overlay: Enables or disables the display of Chandelier Exit levels directly on the price chart.
Trend-based Bar Colors: Allows users to color bars based on trend direction, enhancing the visual analysis of market direction.
🔶 RELATED SCRIPTS
Market-Structure-Oscillator
Quarterly Cycles [EETrade]The idea of Quarterly Theory is -
Each timeframe is split into 4 "quarters", derived based on logical subdivisions:
- Year: Divided into calendar quarters (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, etc.).
- Tertiary (sub-year): Each year quarter is subdivided into 4 parts dynamically based on timestamp deltas.
- Month: Weekly-based logic using Sunday cutoffs and session switch time (18:00 US/Eastern).
- Week: Divided using daily boundaries starting from Sunday 18:00 (based on US futures session logic).
- Day: Split into 4 blocks (Asia, London, AM, PM) using 6-hour segments.
- Session and Macro Quarters: Session is divided further into 4 quarters of 6 hours, then each of those into 15-minute blocks for ultra-granular cycle mapping.
Where we split them into Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Usually we address
Q1 as accumulation,
Q2 as manipulation
Q3 as Distribution
Q4 as Continuation/Reversal
If we trade Q3 for example, we'd like to use price action mainly from previous Q3s.
Plus there are Semi Cycles which we can utilize
- Q1 with Q3
- Q2 with Q4
- Q3 with Q1
- Q4 with Q2
So we can also use Q1 price action when we are trading Q3
True Open Logic:
The open candle price of the second quarter is the true open for us, it will help us understand if we're on premium or discount area.
Plus this indicator providers a table to dynamically show the premium and discount
We can use this indicator to understand optimal times to trade as we'd like to trade mostly Q3
Multi-Session MarkerMulti-Session Marker is a flexible visual tool for traders who want to highlight up to 10 custom trading sessions directly on their chart’s background.
Custom Sessions: Enter up to 10 time ranges (in HHMM-HHMM format) to mark any market session, news window, or personal focus period.
Visual Clarity: For each session, toggle the highlight on or off and select a unique background color and opacity, making it easy to distinguish active trading windows at a glance.
Universal Time Handling: Session times automatically follow your chart’s time zone—no manual adjustment required.
Efficient and Fast: Utilizes TradingView’s bgcolor() for smooth performance, even on fast timeframes like 1-second charts.
Clean Interface: All session controls are grouped for easy editing in the indicator’s settings panel.
How to use:
In the indicator settings, enter your desired session times (e.g., 0930-1130) for each session you want to highlight.
Toggle “Show Session” and pick a color for each session.
The background will automatically highlight those periods on your chart.
This indicator is ideal for day traders, futures traders, or anyone who wants to visually segment their trading day for better focus and analysis.
Crypto Cycle Projection📈 Crypto Cycle Projection – Indicator Description
This indicator is designed to visually track and forecast repeating price cycles in the crypto market. It highlights a defined time-based cycle starting from a chosen date or the latest bar on the chart. By identifying cycle Start, Midpoint, and End zones, traders can gain insights into timing-based market structure and possible pivot periods.
⚙️ User Settings Explained
Start Point
Start from Last Candle (useLastCandle) – When enabled, the cycle begins from the most recent candle on the chart.
Manual Date (Year / Month / Day) – If Start from Last Candle is disabled, you can manually set a specific start date for the cycle.
Display Options
- Show Projection (showZone) – Toggles the display of the main cycle projection.
- Show Outer Bars (showOuter) – Adds faded edge bars around the key cycle zones for better visual emphasis.
- Show Previous Cycle (showPreviousCycle) – Adds the prior cycle to the chart, going one full cycle period back from the main start point.
Show Next Cycle (showNextCycle) – Projects one additional cycle forward beyond the current.
Cycle Parameters
Cycle Period (cyclePeriod) – Defines the number of bars in a full cycle (e.g., 60 = 60 bars). This sets the spacing between Start → Midpoint → End.
Each cycle section is color-coded:
Start = White
Midpoint = Yellow
End = Green
These reference lines and zones help you align trades with cycle timing for potential reversals, continuations, or volatility expansions.
Co-author Credit:
Matthew Hyland @ParabolicMatt
Bitcoin Power Law OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. The main body of the script can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B(Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
Bitcoin Power LawThis is the main body version of the script. The Oscillator version can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B (Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
Yearly History Calendar-Aligned Price up to 10 Years)Overview
This indicator helps traders compare historical price patterns from the past 10 calendar years with the current price action. It overlays translucent lines (polylines) for each year’s price data on the same calendar dates, providing a visual reference for recurring trends. A dynamic table at the top of the chart summarizes the active years, their price sources, and history retention settings.
Key Features
Historical Projections
Displays price data from the last 10 years (e.g., January 5, 2023 vs. January 5, 2024).
Price Source Selection
Choose from Open, Low, High, Close, or HL2 ((High + Low)/2) for historical alignment.
The selected source is shown in the legend table.
Bulk Control Toggles
Show All Years : Display all 10 years simultaneously.
Keep History for All : Preserve historical lines on year transitions.
Hide History for All : Automatically delete old lines to update with current data.
Individual Year Settings
Toggle visibility for each year (-1 to -10) independently.
Customize color and line width for each year.
Control whether to keep or delete historical lines for specific years.
Visual Alignment Aids
Vertical lines mark yearly transitions for reference.
Polylines are semi-transparent for clarity.
Dynamic Legend Table
Shows active years, their price sources, and history status (On/Off).
Updates automatically when settings change.
How to Use
Configure Settings
Projection Years : Select how many years to display (1–10).
Price Source : Choose Open, Low, High, Close, or HL2 for historical alignment.
History Precision : Set granularity (Daily, 60m, or 15m).
Daily (D) is recommended for long-term analysis (covers 10 years).
60m/15m provides finer precision but may only cover 1–3 years due to data limits.
Adjust Visibility & History
Show Year -X : Enable/disable specific years for comparison.
Keep History for Year -X : Choose whether to retain historical lines or delete them on new year transitions.
Bulk Controls
Show All Years : Display all 10 years at once (overrides individual toggles).
Keep History for All / Hide History for All : Globally enable/disable history retention for all years.
Customize Appearance
Line Width : Adjust polyline thickness for better visibility.
Colors : Assign unique colors to each year for easy identification.
Interpret the Legend Table
The table shows:
Year : Label (e.g., "Year -1").
Source : The selected price type (e.g., "Close", "HL2").
Keep History : Indicates whether lines are preserved (On) or deleted (Off).
Tips for Optimal Use
Use Daily Timeframes for Long-Term Analysis :
Daily (1D) allows 10+ years of data. Smaller timeframes (60m/15m) may have limited historical coverage.
Compare Recurring Patterns :
Look for overlaps between historical polylines and current price to identify potential support/resistance levels.
Customize Colors & Widths :
Use contrasting colors for years you want to highlight. Adjust line widths to avoid clutter.
Leverage Global Toggles :
Enable Show All Years for a quick overview. Use Keep History for All to maintain continuity across transitions.
Example Workflow
Set Up :
Select Projection Years = 5.
Choose Price Source = Close.
Set History Precision = 1D for long-term data.
Customize :
Enable Show Year -1 to Show Year -5.
Assign distinct colors to each year.
Disable Keep History for All to ensure lines update on year transitions.
Analyze :
Observe how the 2023 close prices align with 2024’s price action.
Use vertical lines to identify yearly boundaries.
Common Questions
Why are some years missing?
Ensure the chart has sufficient historical data (e.g., daily charts cover 10 years, 60m/15m may only cover 1–3 years).
How do I update the data?
Adjust the Price Source or toggle years/history settings. The legend table updates automatically.
Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality [Alpha Extract]The Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality indicator analyzes historical Bitcoin price performance across different months of the year, enabling traders to identify seasonal patterns and potential trading opportunities. This tool helps traders:
Visualize which months historically perform best and worst for Bitcoin.
Track average returns and win rates for each month of the year.
Identify seasonal patterns to enhance trading strategies.
Compare cumulative or individual monthly performance.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes historical Bitcoin price data to calculate monthly performance metrics
Monthly Return Calculation
Inputs:
Monthly open and close prices.
User-defined lookback period (1-15 years).
Return Types:
Percentage: (monthEndPrice / monthStartPrice - 1) × 100
Price: monthEndPrice - monthStartPrice
Statistical Measures
Monthly Averages: ◦ Average return for each month calculated from historical data.
Win Rate: ◦ Percentage of positive returns for each month.
Best/Worst Detection: ◦ Identifies months with highest and lowest average returns.
Cumulative Option
Standard View: Shows discrete monthly performance.
Cumulative View: Shows compounding effect of consecutive months.
Example Calculation (Pine Script):
monthReturn = returnType == "Percentage" ?
(monthEndPrice / monthStartPrice - 1) * 100 :
monthEndPrice - monthStartPrice
calcWinRate(arr) =>
winCount = 0
totalCount = array.size(arr)
if totalCount > 0
for i = 0 to totalCount - 1
if array.get(arr, i) > 0
winCount += 1
(winCount / totalCount) * 100
else
0.0
🔶 DETAILS
Visual Features
Monthly Performance Bars: ◦ Color-coded bars (teal for positive, red for negative returns). ◦ Special highlighting for best (yellow) and worst (fuchsia) months.
Optional Trend Line: ◦ Shows continuous performance across months.
Monthly Axis Labels: ◦ Clear month names for easy reference.
Statistics Table: ◦ Comprehensive view of monthly performance metrics. ◦ Color-coded rows based on performance.
Interpretation
Strong Positive Months: Historically bullish periods for Bitcoin.
Strong Negative Months: Historically bearish periods for Bitcoin.
Win Rate Analysis: Higher win rates indicate more consistently positive months.
Pattern Recognition: Identify recurring seasonal patterns across years.
Best/Worst Identification: Quickly spot the historically strongest and weakest months.
🔶 EXAMPLES
The indicator helps identify key seasonal patterns
Bullish Seasons: Visualize historically strong months where Bitcoin tends to perform well, allowing traders to align long positions with favorable seasonality.
Bearish Seasons: Identify historically weak months where Bitcoin tends to underperform, helping traders avoid unfavorable periods or consider short positions.
Seasonal Strategy Development: Create trading strategies that capitalize on recurring monthly patterns, such as entering positions in historically strong months and reducing exposure during weak months.
Year-to-Year Comparison: Assess how current year performance compares to historical seasonal patterns to identify anomalies or confirmation of trends.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options
Lookback Period: Adjust the number of years (1-15) used for historical analysis.
Return Type: Choose between percentage returns or absolute price changes.
Cumulative Option: Toggle between discrete monthly performance or cumulative effect.
Visual Style Options: Bar Display: Enable/disable and customize colors for positive/negative bars, Line Display: Enable/disable and customize colors for trend line, Axes Display: Show/hide reference axes.
Visual Enhancement: Best/Worst Month Highlighting: Toggle special highlighting of extreme months, Custom highlight colors for best and worst performing months.
The Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality indicator provides traders with valuable insights into Bitcoin's historical performance patterns throughout the year, helping to identify potentially favorable and unfavorable trading periods based on seasonal tendencies.
NY Time Cycles# New York Time Cycles Indicator
## Overview
The Time Cycles indicator is a specialized technical analysis tool designed to divide the trading day into distinct time blocks based on New York trading hours. Developed for TradingView, this indicator helps traders identify and analyze market behavior during specific time periods throughout the trading session. The indicator displays six consecutive time blocks, each representing 90-minute segments of the trading day, while tracking price ranges within each block.
## Core Concept
The Time Cycles indicator is built on the premise that different periods during the trading day often exhibit unique market characteristics and behaviors. By segmenting the trading day into standardized 90-minute blocks, traders can:
1. Identify recurring patterns at specific times of day
2. Compare price action across different time blocks
3. Recognize potential support and resistance levels based on the high and low of previous time blocks
4. Develop time-based trading strategies specific to certain market hours
## Time Block Structure
The indicator divides the trading day into six sequential 90-minute blocks based on New York time:
1. **Box 1**: 07:00 - 08:30 ET
2. **Box 2**: 08:30 - 10:00 ET
3. **Box 3**: 10:00 - 11:30 ET
4. **Box 4**: 11:30 - 13:00 ET
5. **Box 5**: 13:00 - 14:30 ET
6. **Box 6**: 14:30 - 16:00 ET
These time blocks cover the core US trading session from pre-market into regular market hours.
## Visual Representation
Each time block is represented on the chart as a visual box that:
- Spans the exact time period of the block (horizontally)
- Extends from the highest high to the lowest low recorded during that time period (vertically)
- Is displayed with customizable colors and transparency levels
- Automatically builds in real-time as price action develops
Additionally, the indicator draws dashed projection lines that:
- Display the high and low of the most recently completed time block
- Extend forward in time (for up to 24 hours)
- Help traders identify potential support and resistance levels
## Technical Implementation
The indicator employs several key technical features:
1. **Time Detection**: Accurately identifies the current New York time to place each box in the correct time period
2. **Dynamic Box Creation**: Initializes and updates boxes in real-time as price action develops
3. **Range Tracking**: Continuously monitors and adjusts the high and low of each active time block
4. **Projection Lines**: Creates horizontal dashed lines projecting the high and low of the most recently completed time block
5. **Daily Reset**: Automatically resets all boxes and lines at the start of each new trading day
6. **Customization**: Allows users to set custom colors and transparency levels for each time block
This Time Cycles indicator provides traders with a structured framework for analyzing intraday market movements based on specific time periods. By understanding how the market typically behaves during each 90-minute block, traders can develop more targeted strategies and potentially identify higher-probability trading opportunities throughout the trading day.
My-Indicator - Global Liquidity & Money Supply M2 + Time OffsetThis script is designed to visualize a global liquidity and money supply index by combining data from various regions and, optionally, central bank activity. Visualizing this data on a chart allows you to see how central banks are intervening in the financial system and how the total amount of money in the economy is changing. Let’s take a look at how it works:
Central Bank Liquidity
Shows the actions of central banks (e.g. FED, ECB) providing short-term cash to commercial banks. If you see spikes or a steady increase in these indicators, it may suggest that liquidity is being increased through intervention, which often stimulates the market.
Money Supply
M2 money supply is a monetary aggregate that includes M1 (cash and current deposits) plus savings deposits, small term deposits, and other financial instruments that, while not as liquid as M1, can be quickly converted into cash. As a result, M2 provides a broader picture of the available money in the economy, which is useful for analyzing market conditions and potential economic trends.
How does it help investors?
It allows you to quickly see when central banks are injecting additional liquidity, which could signal higher prices.
It allows you to see trends in the money supply, which informs potential changes in inflation and the economic cycle.
Combining both sets of data provides a more complete picture – both in the short and long term – which makes it easier to predict upcoming price movements.
This allows investors to better respond to changes in central bank policy and broader monetary trends, increasing their chances of making better investment decisions.
Data Collection
The script retrieves money supply data for key markets such as the USA (USM2), Europe (EUM2), China (CNM2), and Japan (JPM2). It also offers additional money supply series for other markets—like Canada (CAM2), Great Britain (GBM2), Russia (RUM2), Brazil (BRM2), Mexico (MXM2), and New Zealand (NZM2)—with extra options (e.g., Australia, India, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sweden) disabled by default. Moreover, you can enable data for central bank liquidity (such as FED, RRP, TGA, ECB, PBC, BOJ, and other central banks), which are also disabled by default.
Index Calculation
The indicator calculates the index by adding together all the enabled money supply series (and the central bank data if activated) and then scales the sum by dividing it by 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion). This scaling makes the resulting values more manageable and easier to read on the chart.
Time Offset Feature
A key feature of the script is the time offset. With the input parameter "Time Offset (days)", the user can shift the plotted index line by a specific number of days. The script converts the given offset in days into a number of bars based on the current chart's timeframe. This allows you to adjust for the delay between liquidity changes and their effect on asset prices.
Overall, the indicator plots a line on your chart representing the global liquidity and money supply index, allowing you to visually monitor trends and better understand how liquidity and central bank actions may influence market movements.
What makes this script different from others?
Every supported market—both major regions (USA, Eurozone, China, Japan, etc.) and additional ones—is available. You can toggle each series on or off, so you can view only Money Supply data, only Central Bank Liquidity, or any custom combination.
Separated Data Groups. Inputs are organized into clear groups (“Money Supply”, “Other Money Supply”, “Central Bank Liquidity”), making it easy to focus on just the data you need without clutter.
True Day‑Based Offset. This script converts your chosen “Time Offset (days)” into actual days regardless of timeframe. Whether you’re on a 5‑minute or daily chart, the index is always shifted by exactly the number of days you specify.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Adaptive Trend FinderAdaptive Trend Finder - The Ultimate Trend Detection Tool
Introducing Adaptive Trend Finder, the next evolution of trend analysis on TradingView. This powerful indicator is an enhanced and refined version of Adaptive Trend Finder (Log), designed to offer even greater flexibility, accuracy, and ease of use.
What’s New?
Unlike the previous version, Adaptive Trend Finder allows users to fully configure and adjust settings directly within the indicator menu, eliminating the need to modify chart settings manually. A major improvement is that users no longer need to adjust the chart's logarithmic scale manually in the chart settings; this can now be done directly within the indicator options, ensuring a smoother and more efficient experience. This makes it easier to switch between linear and logarithmic scaling without disrupting the analysis. This provides a seamless user experience where traders can instantly adapt the indicator to their needs without extra steps.
One of the most significant improvements is the complete code overhaul, which now enables simultaneous visualization of both long-term and short-term trend channels without needing to add the indicator twice. This not only improves workflow efficiency but also enhances chart readability by allowing traders to monitor multiple trend perspectives at once.
The interface has been entirely redesigned for a more intuitive user experience. Menus are now clearer, better structured, and offer more customization options, making it easier than ever to fine-tune the indicator to fit any trading strategy.
Key Features & Benefits
Automatic Trend Period Selection: The indicator dynamically identifies and applies the strongest trend period, ensuring optimal trend detection with no manual adjustments required. By analyzing historical price correlations, it selects the most statistically relevant trend duration automatically.
Dual Channel Display: Traders can view both long-term and short-term trend channels simultaneously, offering a broader perspective of market movements. This feature eliminates the need to apply the indicator twice, reducing screen clutter and improving efficiency.
Fully Adjustable Settings: Users can customize trend detection parameters directly within the indicator settings. No more switching chart settings – everything is accessible in one place.
Trend Strength & Confidence Metrics: The indicator calculates and displays a confidence score for each detected trend using Pearson correlation values. This helps traders gauge the reliability of a given trend before making decisions.
Midline & Channel Transparency Options: Users can fine-tune the visibility of trend channels, adjusting transparency levels to fit their personal charting style without overwhelming the price chart.
Annualized Return Calculation: For daily and weekly timeframes, the indicator provides an estimate of the trend’s performance over a year, helping traders evaluate potential long-term profitability.
Logarithmic Adjustment Support: Adaptive Trend Finder is compatible with both logarithmic and linear charts. Traders who analyze assets like cryptocurrencies, where log scaling is common, can enable this feature to refine trend calculations.
Intuitive & User-Friendly Interface: The updated menu structure is designed for ease of use, allowing quick and efficient modifications to settings, reducing the learning curve for new users.
Why is this the Best Trend Indicator?
Adaptive Trend Finder stands out as one of the most advanced trend analysis tools available on TradingView. Unlike conventional trend indicators, which rely on fixed parameters or lagging signals, Adaptive Trend Finder dynamically adjusts its settings based on real-time market conditions. By combining automatic trend detection, dual-channel visualization, real-time performance metrics, and an intuitive user interface, this indicator offers an unparalleled edge in trend identification and trading decision-making.
Traders no longer have to rely on guesswork or manually tweak settings to identify trends. Adaptive Trend Finder does the heavy lifting, ensuring that users are always working with the strongest and most reliable trends. The ability to simultaneously display both short-term and long-term trends allows for a more comprehensive market overview, making it ideal for scalpers, swing traders, and long-term investors alike.
With its state-of-the-art algorithms, fully customizable interface, and professional-grade accuracy, Adaptive Trend Finder is undoubtedly one of the most powerful trend indicators available.
Try it today and experience the future of trend analysis.
This indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders in identifying trends. It does not guarantee future performance or profitability. Users should conduct their own research and apply proper risk management before making trading decisions.
// Created by Julien Eche - @Julien_Eche
